1月至今，布伦特原油期货价格上涨约16%，伴随国内核心通胀指标2025H2延续修复趋势，通胀预期有所提升。复盘来看，在近五轮通胀周期中，由于原 油价格联动、库存消化、宽货币政策及黑天鹅事件催化，种植链现货价格上涨动力强，板块投资收益相对沪深300超额表现突出。且截至2025Q4，农业/种 植板块基金持仓占比1.18%/0.07%，分别处于近五年分位数的8%/12%，处于配置低位，建议加强配置。 复盘来看种植链在通胀周期超额收益明显 我们对近五轮通胀周期进行复盘， 2003-2005年、2006-2008年、2009-2012年CPI\PPI同步回升，股票市场则在CPI超过2%左右位置时往往开启主升浪，并 且明显早于CPI\PPI高点结束，而2015-2018年、2021-2022年PPI单侧回升，股票市场呈现结构性变化。因此前三轮我们选取大盘启动前三个月为起点，CPI 高点为终点，后两轮我们选取PPI快速回升至高点区间进行行业涨跌幅对比，发现种植业、农产品加工板块往往具备较为明显的超额收益，五轮通胀期间 合计相对沪深300超额收益达140pct、126pct，其中玉米种子公司、种植公司受益于粮价上涨表现突出， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the planting chain has shown significant excess returns during inflation cycles, with a total excess return of 140 percentage points and 126 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 index during five inflation periods [6] - Current inflation expectations are rising, driven by a 16% increase in Brent crude oil prices since January, which is expected to catalyze the planting chain [5][7] - The report suggests increasing allocation to the planting industry chain, particularly in corn and cotton, due to favorable price trends and low fund holdings in the sector [9] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Longping High-Tech (000998 CH) with a target price of 12.77 and a "Buy" rating, and Denghai Seeds (002041 CH) with a target price of 12.06 and an "Overweight" rating [4][22] Market Trends - As of Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio for the agriculture/planting sector is at 1.18% and 0.07%, respectively, indicating a low allocation compared to historical levels [8][9] - The report notes that domestic corn and cotton prices have shown an upward trend since 2025, with January 2026 average prices up 10% and 11% compared to the lowest monthly averages in 2025 [7][9] Historical Performance - The analysis of past inflation cycles indicates that the planting and agricultural processing sectors typically outperform the market, with the planting sector achieving a cumulative excess return of 657% compared to the CSI 300 index over five inflation periods [20] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the recovery of core inflation indicators and the optimization of supply-demand dynamics will support price increases in the planting chain, further enhancing investment opportunities [7][9]