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一场关乎美国科技霸权的大戏
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-08-26 06:06
【文/观察者网专栏作者 心智观察所】 在技术路线和市场决断力上的问题,英特尔犯下了众所周知的错误。当智能手机席卷全球时,英特尔却 还沉浸在PC和服务器的舒适圈里。更要命的是技术路线的迷失。英特尔曾经引以为傲的Tick-Tock战略 ——每两年一次制程跃进,在10纳米节点彻底失灵。原本2015年就该量产的10纳米制程,硬是拖到了 2019年。4年的延迟,在摩尔定律的赛道上,几乎等同于判死刑。 英特尔的市值从巅峰时期的近3000亿美元,跌到如今缩水三分之二,甚至眼瞅着要被A股市场上的妖股 寒武纪超越。 今年3月13日,英特尔宣布,陈立武为公司新任首席执行官。 一场关乎美国科技霸权的大戏正在华盛顿上演。近90亿美元的政府补助金摇身一变,成为公司差不多 10%的股权——通过"黄金股"这一神奇的制度设计,政府花小钱却能办大事——哪怕只持有象征性的一 股,也能在关键决策上拥有绝对否决权。 这场"准国有化"大戏的主角之一不是别人,正是英特尔新任CEO陈立武。这位华裔高管与特朗普前不久 有过白宫会面。会面后关于政府入股英特尔的消息就开始满天飞,时机之巧合,让人不得不联想到两人 可能已就英特尔的未来达成某种默契。 陈立武,一个 ...
心智观察所:一场关乎美国科技霸权的大戏
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-08-26 06:03
【文/观察者网专栏作者 心智观察所】 一场关乎美国科技霸权的大戏正在华盛顿上演。近90亿美元的政府补助金摇身一变,成为公司差不多 10%的股权——通过"黄金股"这一神奇的制度设计,政府花小钱却能办大事——哪怕只持有象征性的一 股,也能在关键决策上拥有绝对否决权。 这场"准国有化"大戏的主角之一不是别人,正是英特尔新任CEO陈立武。这位华裔高管与特朗普前不久 有过白宫会面。会面后关于政府入股英特尔的消息就开始满天飞,时机之巧合,让人不得不联想到两人 可能已就英特尔的未来达成某种默契。 陈立武,一个带有"政治污点"的救赎者? 直观理解今天英特尔的困境,可以看一下以下这几组数据。 2024财年,英特尔净亏损188亿美元,营收531亿美元,同比下降2%;毛利率32.7%,同比下降7.3个百 分点。其中,代工业务全年营收175亿美元,亏损高达134亿美元。英特尔尽管在盈利上遇到困难,但目 前现金流状况依然稳定,有足够的资金支持公司进行技术研发和战略调整。只是,能持续多久尚未可 知。 在技术路线和市场决断力上的问题,英特尔犯下了众所周知的错误。当智能手机席卷全球时,英特尔却 还沉浸在PC和服务器的舒适圈里。更要命的是技术 ...
一味追求遥遥领先,多半是病了
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-03 00:39
Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes that a country's technological innovation capability is determined more by its ability to capture and apply technological results rather than by original inventions [1][2] - The article uses Huawei as an example, highlighting its success in telecommunications, smartphones, and electric vehicles through imitation and learning from companies like Cisco, Samsung, and Tesla, rather than through original inventions [1][2] - The historical context shows that countries like Germany, the US, and Japan achieved technological advancements through rapid and continuous technology diffusion, with original inventions being secondary outcomes [2] Group 2 - The Wright brothers invented the airplane, but the aviation industry developed in Europe, illustrating that invention alone does not guarantee industrial success [3][4][5] - Despite the Wright brothers' invention, the US aviation industry lagged behind Europe for years due to a lack of commercial orders and industrial infrastructure [5][8] - The article argues that without the ability to convert inventions into products, technological innovations remain ineffective and do not impact society [9] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of technology diffusion over original invention, citing Henry Kaiser’s innovations in shipbuilding as an example of applying techniques from other industries to achieve success [10][14] - Japan's shipbuilding industry rose from the ashes by combining innovative techniques with government support and market opportunities, surpassing the US and UK [15] - The US shipbuilding industry, despite having advanced technology, stagnated due to protective measures that limited the application of efficient manufacturing processes [11][12] Group 4 - Innovation is framed as an economic concept rather than a purely technical one, focusing on the introduction of new combinations of production factors into the economy [18][20] - The article emphasizes that the true measure of technological innovation lies in its economic value and the ability to create products that can be marketed [27][31] - The low patent conversion rate in Chinese universities compared to enterprises highlights the gap in translating research into economic benefits [25][32] Group 5 - The article asserts that the trend of enterprise-led innovation is a global phenomenon, with businesses increasingly taking the lead in research and development funding [34][39] - The US leads in corporate R&D spending, with a significant portion coming from the private sector, indicating a shift away from government-led initiatives [39][41] - Large enterprises are identified as the main drivers of technological diffusion, possessing superior capabilities in market information collection, product promotion, and resource integration [42][45] Group 6 - The article concludes that the competition between the US and China in technological innovation is evident, but there remains a disparity in the overall strength of large enterprises [47][48] - It advocates for a pragmatic approach that emphasizes economic benefits from technological innovation, focusing on market applications rather than merely pursuing original inventions [48][49]
全球AI芯片行业,正走到新的十字路口 丨小白商业观
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-05-20 09:29
Group 1 - The global chip industry is experiencing significant changes, particularly highlighted by recent events such as Huang Renxun's comments on AI diffusion rules and semiconductor export controls [2][3] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the withdrawal of the AI diffusion rules while simultaneously implementing stricter semiconductor export controls, particularly targeting Huawei and AI chip usage in China [2][3] - The strategic significance of the chip industry has evolved, with the current focus on AI's role in globalization, marking a shift from the previous era of trade-centric chip dynamics [3] Group 2 - Chinese companies, including Huawei and Xiaomi, are actively pursuing advancements in chip manufacturing and AI technology, indicating a robust evolution in China's AI industry [3] - NVIDIA's CEO announced plans to establish an AI supercomputer in Taiwan in collaboration with TSMC and Foxconn, reflecting the company's pivotal role in the current AI landscape [3] - The ongoing competition in technology sovereignty and nationalism is disrupting the normal business ecosystem, affecting both Chinese firms and Silicon Valley tech giants [3] Group 3 - DeepSeek's open-source approach is breaking the AI performance barriers and highlighting the importance of an open ecosystem for technological innovation [4] - Historical evidence suggests that attempts to maintain technological advantages through isolation will ultimately lead to stronger alternatives emerging [4] - The future of AI innovation relies on creating an open ecosystem, which is essential for leveraging market scale advantages into technological breakthroughs [4] Group 4 - The current discourse around the AI race and chip wars prompts a deeper inquiry into the underlying motivations and objectives of the industry [5]