DeepSeek 助力国产算力价值重估 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 一、DeepSeek-V3.1：架构焕新智能体，FP8 赋能算力 生态 DeepSeek-V3.1 实现多维度突破，采用创新混合推理 架构，支持"思考"与"非思考"模式，结合混合专 家架构与 UE8M0 FP8 精度，优化效率并降低部署成 本。其智能体能力突出，编程与搜索能力卓越，上下 文窗口扩展至 128K。生态建设上，模型开源且 API 价 格下调、优化功能。该模型与 UE8M0 FP8 组合适配国 产芯片，UE8M0 FP8 动态范围大，提升稳定性与效 率，适配华为昇腾等芯片，实现"低卡高能"部署， 带动全产业链发展。在政策推动下，其与昇腾组合切 入关键领域，打破垄断，根据中研网预测，2025 年中 国 AI 算力市场达 1200 亿元，我们预计 UE8M0 FP8 技 术新增 240 亿元有效算力供给。 ►二、供应链风险与自主化机遇：国产芯片及服务器有 望快速发展 8 月 22 日，英伟达要求部分供应商暂停生产 H2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a decline, with the domestic AI industry chain-focused ETF (589520) showing signs of active trading and potential buying opportunities despite the market pullback [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The domestic AI ETF (589520) has seen a significant increase of 43.45% since its low point on April 8, outperforming other indices such as the Sci-Tech 50 (24.24%) and the Sci-Tech Composite Index (41.38%) [3][4]. - The ETF has shown strong trading activity, with a real-time transaction amount of 47.8 million yuan, surpassing the total transaction amount from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Investment Logic - Market Mainline Logic: Historical trends indicate that sectors that initiate early and complete adjustments tend to start a second wave of growth, with AI meeting these conditions [5]. - Sci-Tech Board Rebound Logic: Policies supporting the Sci-Tech board are expected to lead to a rebound, particularly for AI-related companies [5]. - Domestic Substitution Logic: Concerns over security vulnerabilities in NVIDIA chips are prompting domestic clients to consider alternatives, highlighting the importance of domestic chip manufacturers [5]. - End-Side AI Development Logic: The anticipated growth in end-side AI applications, such as humanoid robots and smart driving, is expected to drive significant market changes [5]. Group 3: Future Catalysts - The AI industry is expected to experience several key events in the second half of the year, including major product launches and industry conferences [6]. - The rise of AI applications is likely to accelerate the need for high-end domestic chips, providing opportunities for local manufacturers to enhance their technology [6]. Group 4: ETF Composition and Strategy - The ETF is heavily weighted towards semiconductor stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for over 67% of its portfolio, indicating a strong focus on sectors with high growth potential [6]. - The ETF aims to balance investments across application software, terminal applications, terminal chips, and cloud chips, positioning itself to benefit from the rapid advancement of AI technologies [6].

来源：地球编辑 曾经占据中国AI芯片市场95%的市场份额的英伟达，如今却因技术封锁、国产替代和信任危机三重压力 陷入困境。 随着中国芯片企业的快速崛起，英伟达的中国市场地位或许只需两年时间就将彻底被改写。 英伟达的困境始于美国政府的出口管制政策。 2023年，美国商务部将英伟达的高算力芯片H20列入"黑名单"，禁止其向中国出口。 这一政策直接导致英伟达失去了腾讯、阿里等大客户，同时还积压了45亿美元的库存，最终减记了55亿 美元的损失。 虽然2025年7月，美国政府放松了对H20芯片的出口限制，但中国市场并未重新拥抱英伟达的产品。 过去两年间，中国企业已经加速研发国产替代芯片，试图摆脱对英伟达的依赖。 国产芯片的崛起成为英伟达在中国市场衰退的关键因素。 以华为昇腾芯片为代表的国产产品，不仅在算力上超越了英伟达H20，还通过"密态计算"技术解决了芯片 安全性问题。 这一技术杜绝了后门风险，成为政务、金融领域的首选解决方案，并已获得上百万订单。 同时，中国车企也在芯片领域取得了显著突破。 小鹏和蔚来已经在最新车型中搭载了自研芯片，而比亚迪、广汽、一汽等企业也加速布局芯片研发和生 产。 据日经亚洲报道，目前至少有1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future of US-China relations will be characterized more by competition than cooperation, as evidenced by the recent extension of punitive tariffs and ongoing negotiations [1] - The US and China reached a consensus to extend the suspension period of the 24% punitive tariffs by 90 days until November 12, allowing Chinese goods to continue entering the US with a 10% base tax plus a 20% fentanyl special tax [1] - The extension of the tariff suspension is seen as a strategic move for both countries, with the US aiming to alleviate inflation pressures and China seeking to expand exports, particularly to Central and Eastern Europe, where trade reached a record 522.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The cybersecurity landscape is evolving, with recent incidents highlighting the risks associated with chip technology, particularly after the US allowed Nvidia to sell AI chips to China, which raised concerns about potential backdoor risks [4] - Nvidia's H20 chip, which accounts for 80% of its revenue from China, faces scrutiny after being linked to potential security vulnerabilities, leading to a significant loss of $13.5 billion when previously banned [4] - Chinese companies are increasingly focusing on self-reliance in chip production, with Huawei's Ascend chips outperforming Nvidia's H20 by 1.7 times and domestic chip market share rising to 28% [4] Group 3 - Recent cyberattacks by US intelligence agencies on Chinese military enterprises demonstrate a new form of competition, with over 600 attacks targeting military and research institutions in the past year [6] - The attacks included significant breaches, such as the theft of missile design documents from a major military enterprise, indicating a high level of sophistication and intent [6] - The ongoing tensions are reflected in various domains, including trade negotiations, cybersecurity, and technological competition, with the 90-day tariff countdown symbolizing the precarious nature of US-China relations [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "MoXin Ecological Innovation Alliance" by companies like Jiyue Xincheng, Huawei Ascend, and others marks a significant shift in China's AI and chip industry, moving from individual efforts to collaborative innovation in computing power [1][3][4] Group 1: Alliance Formation - The alliance signifies a transition from "individual combat" to "team collaboration" in the domestic computing power landscape, indicating a unified approach to tackle challenges in AI model development and chip compatibility [1][3] - The collaboration aims to integrate AI models with domestic chips, addressing the dependency on foreign technology and enhancing the overall ecosystem [3][5] Group 2: Key Players - Huawei Ascend is recognized as a leading player in the domestic chip market, successfully running the Step 3 model, showcasing its robust computing capabilities [4][5] - Other notable members like Muxi, Tianshu Zhixin, and Suiyuan Technology are acknowledged for their significant contributions to high-performance computing and AI training chips, representing the new force in domestic chip manufacturing [4][5] Group 3: Benefits of Collaboration - The alliance aims to standardize the adaptation of AI models across different chips, reducing the complexity for companies looking to utilize domestic computing power [5][6] - By aligning chip manufacturers and model developers, the alliance fosters a deep optimization of both hardware and software, enhancing performance and usability [5][6] Group 4: Economic and Security Implications - The collaboration is expected to lower the costs associated with AI services, making them more accessible to consumers and businesses alike [7] - Utilizing domestic chips and models enhances data security, particularly in sensitive sectors like finance and healthcare, by keeping data within national boundaries [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - While the alliance represents a significant step forward, challenges remain in terms of technology, ecosystem development, and market competition against international giants [8] - The initiative is seen as a foundational move towards establishing a self-sufficient and competitive domestic AI and chip industry, with long-term potential for growth and innovation [8]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Jiyue Xingchen Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. has launched its first full-size, native multimodal reasoning model, Step3, which will be open-sourced for global enterprises and developers on July 31, 2025 [1] Group 1: Model Development - Step3 features an innovative model architecture and algorithm engineering collaboration, utilizing a MoE architecture with a total parameter count of 321 billion and an active parameter count of 38 billion, achieving significant cost optimization while maintaining high decoding efficiency [2] - Step3 possesses visual perception and complex reasoning capabilities, enabling it to accurately perform cross-domain complex knowledge understanding and analyze the intersection of mathematical and visual information [2] Group 2: Performance and Efficiency - Step3 demonstrated over 70% throughput improvement compared to the industry-leading model DeepSeek-R1 when tested on NVIDIA H800 chips, and can achieve up to 300% efficiency on domestic chips [2] - A core innovation alliance has been established with nearly 10 chip and infrastructure manufacturers to enhance model adaptability and computing efficiency [2][3] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Revenue Goals - The alliance includes major domestic chip manufacturers such as Huawei Ascend and others, which have successfully implemented and run Step3 [3] - Jiyue Xingchen has formed a strategic partnership with Shanghai State-owned Capital Investment Co., Ltd., aiming for a revenue target of 1 billion RMB for the year, based on confirmed contract revenues and a strong gross profit margin achieved in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The company has collaborated with over half of domestic smartphone manufacturers to develop intelligent agents and is exploring applications in various verticals, including finance and retail [4]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Model Core Ecological Innovation Alliance" by Step 3 in collaboration with nearly 10 chip manufacturers signifies a strategic move towards enhancing collaboration in the chip industry, particularly in the context of large models and chip innovation [1] Group 1: Alliance Formation - Step 3 has launched the "Model Core Ecological Innovation Alliance" with participation from major chip manufacturers including Huawei Ascend, Mu Xi, Tian Shu Zhi Xin, Sui Yuan Technology, Bi Ran Technology, Han Wu Ji, Mo Er Thread, Wu Wen Xin Qiong, and Silicon-based Flow [1] - The first batch of alliance members has begun adapting their technologies to support the Step 3 model, with Huawei Ascend being the first to achieve deployment and operation [1] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - Key figures from the domestic chip industry participated in a roundtable forum at the Step 3 model launch, discussing "Collaborative Innovation between Large Models and Chips" [1] - The forum featured prominent leaders such as Chen Weiliang from Mu Xi, Gai Lujian from Tian Shu Zhi Xin, Zhao Lidong from Sui Yuan Technology, and Zhang Wen from Bi Ran Technology, highlighting the importance of collaboration in driving innovation [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. has approved the sale of Nvidia H20 chips to China as part of U.S.-China trade negotiations, while Chinese companies like Huawei have already produced equivalent chips, indicating a desire to avoid domestic substitution by China [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has confirmed ongoing communication with the U.S. following the London trade talks, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to abandon zero-sum thinking and remove unreasonable trade restrictions against China [1] - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to the U.S. export controls on Huawei's Ascend chips, arguing that such measures harm fair market competition and the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [1] Group 2 - Canada announced on July 16 that it will expand the scope of steel import tariffs and impose additional taxes on products containing steel melted and cast in China, effective August 1 [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized Canada's unilateral measures as violations of World Trade Organization rules, asserting that these actions disrupt international trade and harm Chinese interests [2] - The Chinese government has called for Canada to correct its erroneous measures and stop restrictions, stating that it will take necessary actions to protect the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that cooperation and win-win outcomes between China and the US are essential, while suppression and containment have no future [1][5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed ongoing communication with the US regarding trade negotiations, highlighting the approval of Nvidia's H20 chip sales to China as part of these discussions [1][3] - Nvidia's CEO expressed the attractiveness of the Chinese market and the company's willingness to deepen cooperation in artificial intelligence with Chinese partners [1][3] Group 2 - The US government's export control measures have negatively impacted American companies, with Nvidia estimating a loss of $5.5 billion due to restrictions on chip sales to China [3][4] - A report from the New York Federal Reserve indicated that export controls have led to significant declines in revenue and profitability for affected US companies, with an average revenue drop of 8.6% and a 25% decrease in earnings before interest and taxes [4] - The report also noted a 7.1% reduction in employment among affected US companies, highlighting the broader economic implications of these export controls [4] Group 3 - The Chinese semiconductor industry is determined to continue its development despite US pressures, with industry leaders advocating for a return to fair competition based on product and company capabilities [6] - The Chinese semiconductor industry association aims to strengthen international cooperation, including with US counterparts, to maintain industry interests and promote open collaboration [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent approval by the U.S. to sell NVIDIA H20 chips to China, highlighting the ongoing economic negotiations between the two countries and the implications for the semiconductor industry [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-China Economic Relations - The U.S. has indicated that the approval for selling NVIDIA H20 chips is part of the ongoing economic negotiations with China, emphasizing the importance of maintaining communication and cooperation [1]. - China urges the U.S. to abandon a zero-sum mindset and to continue lifting unreasonable trade restrictions, advocating for a win-win cooperation model [2]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Impact - The article notes that the U.S. has previously imposed stricter export controls on Chinese chip products, particularly targeting Huawei's Ascend chips, which China strongly opposes [2]. - There is a call for both countries to engage in equal negotiations to correct past mistakes and create a favorable environment for mutual cooperation in the semiconductor supply chain [2].