2025年即将收尾，2026年即将到来。 资管机构如何看待2026年股债行情？21世纪经济报道记者采访了多位资管机构投资经理、资管部门相关人士，对于2026年债市表现，机构分歧较大，不过多 数受访者对股市行情更乐观。 对于部分品种，比如超长债，部分机构担忧风险持续释放。而对于A股行情结构将如何演变，不少机构认为，2026年A股行情结构可能略出现变化，科技股 或依然引领行情，但可能出现分化。在扩内需的背景下，调整到位的消费白马股关注度或有所提高。2026年，国内资本市场有望呈现股债共振上行的格局。 债市分歧加大 "目前大家对债市的分歧比较大，我们认为2026年债市的空间不大，权益应该还不错。"某大行理财公司投资经理认为。 2025年债市以震荡为主，一季度、三季度均出现了一轮调整，截至12月26日，中债新综合财富（总值）指数年内略上涨0.78%。 超长债持续下跌让部分机构"心慌"，截至2025年12月29日，30年期国债期货7月份以来下跌7.39%。"超长债一直跌，我们有点担心风险，害怕继续跌，但是 作为险资又不能不配置长债，总之尽量往短一点期限去调整吧。"某保险公司资产管理部负责人告诉记者。 招商银行研究院近期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, which may lead to a breakthrough of historical highs in the market [1] Group 1: Analyst Insights - Jiufeng Investment's chief investment advisor, Zhang Cuixia, believes that the semiconductor sector's momentum is favorable for achieving new historical highs [1] - Jinyuan Securities' chief investment advisor, Xu Chuanbao, suggests that there may be short-term differentiation among technology stocks, but the semiconductor sector is expected to continue its strength [1] - Guojin Securities' Huang Cendong indicates that there is internal rotation within the technology sector, with semiconductor equipment and materials showing potential for catch-up growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergent strategies of major financial institutions regarding technology stocks amid the AI boom and market volatility, indicating a potential shift in investment themes for the upcoming period [1]. Group 1: UBS - UBS reduced its holdings in major tech stocks, including a 10.86% cut in Apple, 5.16% in Nvidia, and 3.95% in Microsoft, while increasing its position in Nasdaq 100 put options by 84.21% [2]. - The strategy reflects a defensive posture, aiming to hedge against potential declines in tech stocks while maintaining a neutral stance on the broader market [2]. Group 2: Wells Fargo - Wells Fargo showed strong confidence in the overall market, increasing its total holdings by 9.77% to $483 billion, with a 47.29% increase in the S&P 500 ETF [3]. - The bank exhibited a "structural increase" in tech stocks, notably boosting its position in Google by 30.89% and adding Broadcom to its top holdings, indicating a focus on the AI supply chain [3]. - Wells Fargo also adopted a dual strategy of increasing bond ETF holdings for volatility protection while aggressively increasing Nasdaq 100 put options by 92.25% [3]. Group 3: Nomura - Nomura's holdings grew by 13% to $60.5 billion, with a significant focus on AI applications and individual stock volatility [4]. - The firm increased its position in Meta call options by 10.98% and Microsoft call options by 110%, reflecting a strong bet on AI application leaders [4]. - Notably, Nomura employed a unique strategy with Tesla, increasing both put and call options, indicating a bet on volatility amid uncertainties surrounding the company [4]. Group 4: Hedge Fund Strategies - Hedge fund strategies varied significantly, with some, like Ackman, focusing on consumer stocks, while others, like Soros, adopted a defensive approach by increasing put options on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 [6]. - Michael Burry's shift from shorting tech stocks to buying call options on healthcare and tech companies illustrates a dramatic change in sentiment, aligning with the broader market rebound [6]. Group 5: Market Signals - The analysis of institutional holdings reveals three key market signals: the definitive split in tech stocks, the standardization of hedging tools, and a balance between defensive and offensive strategies [7]. - The divergence in tech stock performance suggests a preference for hard tech and AI applications over consumer electronics, indicating a shift in investor focus [7]. - The use of derivatives for risk management highlights a transition from a bullish market to a more volatile environment, where institutions are seeking structural opportunities [7].