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2026年可转债年度策略:节奏为先,革新求变
Guohai Securities· 2025-12-08 14:31
Overview - The report highlights that the convertible bond market experienced significant growth in 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 17.87%, driven primarily by price parity and valuation support [2][12] - The current environment presents challenges for convertible bonds, with overall cost-effectiveness declining and valuation at historical highs, leading to increased investment difficulty [2][12] Section 1: 2025 Convertible Bond Review - The convertible bond market saw a strong performance in early 2025 due to ample liquidity and moderate economic recovery, with price parity being the main driver [12] - The market faced a pullback in March-April due to negative CPI and external disturbances, but recovered from May to September as fundamental expectations improved [12] - The overall market for convertible bonds is now in a "deep water zone," with a significant decline in supply and an increase in the median price to 132 yuan, indicating a high premium environment [2][12][27] Section 2: 2026 Stock Market Outlook - The report anticipates a turning point in the stock market, with corporate earnings expected to recover and long-term capital inflows continuing to support the equity market [41][45] - The M1 money supply has shown a significant turning point since September 2024, indicating improved liquidity conditions that are expected to benefit the stock market [46][52] Section 3: 2026 Convertible Bond Outlook and Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a dynamic adjustment of positions in convertible bonds based on market cycles, emphasizing a focus on index-based allocations [2][56] - The strategy indicates that the best accumulation window for convertible bonds is during the latter half of a market downturn and the early half of an uptrend [2][56] - The report highlights the importance of sector rotation, suggesting that constructing an equal-weighted index can effectively capture rotation opportunities [2][67]
智享服贸 焕新生活|2025年服贸会百项新成果集中发布
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-09-12 23:57
服贸会举行多场配套活动和21场论坛 央视网消息:全球服务,互惠共享。2025年服贸会9月12日进入第三天,迎来多项成果集中发布。糖果嘉年华、网球嘉年华等20多场配套活动也同期举行。 总台央视记者陈晰:今年的服贸会还有一大亮点,就是有多场丰富的配套活动,像今天就会举行糖果嘉年华、网球嘉年华等20余场精彩活动,2025全球国家 文旅推介大会也将同期举办。工业风与时尚范儿融合的会展小镇,用更加沉浸式的体验营造出文化+、体育+等新消费场景。 当天,服贸会共有63家企业及机构发布新成果100项,包括首款一车多用无人环卫车等多个新产品。 世界贸易网点联盟亚太区主任卡罗莱纳·昆塔娜:我们对中国在科技领域的发展印象深刻,我认为这么多国际展商来参加服贸会,就是因为看到了中国的巨 大发展潜力。 联合国国际贸易中心副执行主任多萝西·腾博:所有会议传递的核心信息以及政府强调的都是"我们敞开大门做生意",这已将开放提升至新高度。 [ 责编:袁晴 ] ...