2025年10月9日，中国突然甩出了一份稀土新规，不光管原材料，还把设备和技术人员也一块儿拉进了 禁区，这不是简单的加码，而是彻底换了个打法，新政一出，整个国际市场都跟着震了一下，尤其是美 国，反应非常激烈。 当天，特朗普情绪明显上来了，当场指派贝森特和卢特尼克全权处理这件事，用他的话说，这事儿"刻 不容缓"。 稀土是科技时代最重要的东西，只要是高精尖物件，都得用他，过去美国长期购买中国稀土，但这次中 国的新规等于直接把它的退路给堵上了。 中国这步棋，封得不只是矿 以前，大家都觉得中国的稀土政策只是限制原材料出口，可今非昔比，新规把上下游也纳入了管控，什 么意思，你美国就算有矿矿，也只能拿着原石，因为核心设备你买不到。 更关键的是，中国这次还拿捏相关技术服务，简单说，不仅不给你设备，还不让人过去教你怎么用，以 前美国一些稀土工厂还能靠中国技术人员"远程救火"，现在这条路也彻底断了。 这套组合拳打下来，美国自己搞稀土产业的希望几乎被压死了一半，别看它嘴上说得轻松，心里其实已 经开始犯嘀咕了。 新政出来不过几个小时，白宫那边就动了起来，特朗普在内阁会议上，直接点了两个人名：财政部长贝 森特和商务部长卢特尼克，让他 ...

Core Insights - The global rare earth market is undergoing significant changes due to investigations into the rare earth transportation business in Thailand and Mexico, leading to market exits by several companies and increased scrutiny from various countries [1][3] - The U.S. military and high-tech industries are urgently seeking domestic alternatives to reduce reliance on foreign rare earth supplies, while Chinese companies are enhancing internal audits to prevent issues [1][3] Group 1: Regulatory Developments - In June 2025, China Customs cracked down on numerous smuggling cases involving antimony, gallium, and other rare earth elements, with assistance from Thailand and Mexico, indicating a narrowing of gray market channels [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on key metals like antimony and gallium in May, causing a surge in global metal prices, with antimony prices rising nearly 60% [3] - Western military companies are forming specialized procurement teams to circumvent direct purchases of rare earth resources through third countries, highlighting the challenges faced by global regulatory bodies [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, global mergers and acquisitions in the rare earth sector surged nearly 75%, with Western tech companies seeking partnerships with Southeast Asian and African mining giants, which has exacerbated gray market activities [5] - The U.S. imported 3,834 tons of antimony products in April 2025, a staggering increase compared to previous years, with investigations revealing that these products were primarily sourced from China through intermediaries in Thailand and Mexico [9][11] - The U.S. Department of Defense has classified antimony as a strategic material due to its critical role in the production of missiles, communication devices, and special alloys, yet domestic production remains insufficient [11] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - China dominates the rare earth sector, producing over 90% of the world's high-purity rare earth oxides, making it difficult for Western countries to effectively utilize rare earth materials obtained through third countries due to a lack of technical support [5] - Australia's New South Wales has begun mass production of rare earths, becoming one of the few regions capable of exporting high-purity rare earths to the U.S. and Europe, although it still lags behind China in terms of capacity and technology [7] - The U.S. military's increasing demand for antimony is driving up costs by approximately 40% due to reliance on imports, despite the high risks and complexities involved in the logistics and customs processes [11]

Core Insights - The recent departure of three key experts in China's rare earth industry raises concerns about the future of the sector and its technological capabilities [1][5][6] Industry Overview - Rare earth elements, often referred to as the "gold" of modern industry, are crucial for over 90% of high-tech products, from headphones to aerospace engines [3] - China holds approximately 30% of the world's rare earth resources and dominates the entire industry chain from extraction to separation, utilizing advanced technologies like the cascade extraction method [3][5] Talent Departure Impact - The departure of these experts, who contributed to a 40% increase in production capacity and improved purification techniques, poses a significant risk to the industry [5] - The loss of such talent could weaken China's competitive edge, especially as international players like the U.S. and Japan seek to reduce their reliance on Chinese technology [5][6] International Competition - The U.S. has invested over $1 billion in establishing rare earth research centers and forming alliances to challenge China's technological monopoly [5] - The potential outflow of expertise to foreign labs offering lucrative salaries could lead to breakthroughs that undermine China's position in the rare earth sector [6] Domestic Challenges - China's rare earth industry faces challenges in talent retention due to lower salary levels compared to tech giants, with average annual salaries for researchers falling below 300,000 yuan [8] - Companies are encouraged to improve talent management and innovation incentives to retain skilled professionals [8] Government and Corporate Response - The Chinese government is taking measures to address talent loss by establishing core talent databases and offering financial incentives for rare earth professionals [8] - Companies like Northern Rare Earth and Xiamen Tungsten are implementing systems to convert research achievements into economic benefits for employees [8] Conclusion - The departure of rare earth experts serves as both a warning and an opportunity for the industry to enhance talent protection and create a more attractive innovation ecosystem [8]

Core Viewpoint - China's new rare earth export control policy, utilizing a "negative list" management approach, aims to reshape the global rare earth supply chain and enhance China's strategic position in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The new export control measures target seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth elements, marking a shift from traditional export quota systems [1]. - This policy is seen as both an economic strategy and a form of strategic deterrence, pushing Western countries to reassess their policies towards China [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Development - China currently holds 90% of global rare earth processing capacity but only captures 12% of profits in the high-end permanent magnet materials market, highlighting a significant industry dilemma [2]. - The export restrictions are expected to drive the domestic rare earth industry towards higher value-added sectors, with a reported 65% increase in R&D investment among domestic rare earth permanent magnet material companies [2][3]. - Inner Mongolia's Baotou city is focusing on efficient resource development and has established a complete rare earth industry chain, enhancing the overall value of its rare earth resources [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The establishment of a pricing mechanism by the Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange aims to provide a pricing benchmark for enterprises, facilitating the digital transformation of the industry [3]. - The industry is transitioning from resource competition to technology competition, with expectations that high-purity rare earth material exports will exceed 40% by 2027 [3].