Core Viewpoint - The EU's response to China's rare earth export licensing system has shifted significantly, moving from public declarations to a more subdued internal communication urging member states to endure the current situation as China maintains a strong grip on the rare earth market [1][3]. Group 1: EU's Reaction to China's Export Control - Unlike previous instances where the EU would publicly advocate for fair trade, the current situation has seen a muted response, with nearly 2,000 rare earth import applications submitted by European companies, but less than half have been approved [3]. - The EU has issued a private directive to its member states to tolerate the situation, indicating a shift from a confrontational stance to one of patience [1][3]. Group 2: Importance of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements are critical for key EU industries such as electric vehicles, wind energy, semiconductor manufacturing, and high-end military applications [5]. - In 2024, the EU's rare earth imports are projected to decrease by 29.3% year-on-year to 12,900 tons, with 46.3% sourced from China and 28.4% from Russia, highlighting a significant dependency on these two countries [5]. Group 3: Economic Impact on the Automotive Industry - The German automotive industry, which heavily relies on rare earth components, is particularly affected, with 59.86% of its revenue linked to these materials [7]. - Volkswagen has reported a 30.6% decline in net profit for 2024 and a 10% drop in sales in China, attributing these issues to rare earth shortages [7]. Group 4: Future Demand and Supply Gap - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow, with EU electric vehicle sales projected to exceed 5 million units by 2025, leading to a near fivefold increase in rare earth demand compared to 2020 [9]. - The wind energy and semiconductor sectors are also facing challenges due to their reliance on rare earths, particularly heavy rare earths, which are predominantly supplied by China [9]. Group 5: EU's Efforts to Reduce Dependency - The EU has invested €22.5 billion in domestic rare earth mining and processing since 2020, aiming to establish a supply chain alliance with the US and Japan to reduce reliance on China by 2030 [11]. - Despite these efforts, the EU's dependency on Chinese rare earths has only slightly decreased from 51% to 46.3% over five years, indicating minimal progress [12]. Group 6: Challenges in Reducing Dependency - The EU faces significant technological barriers, particularly in the separation and purification of rare earths, where China's advanced methods dominate the market [14]. - The EU's natural resource limitations are evident, as it lacks substantial heavy rare earth resources, which are crucial for high-end manufacturing [14]. Group 7: Geopolitical and Operational Challenges - Attempts to source rare earths from Africa have been hindered by prior investments from Chinese companies, complicating the EU's efforts to diversify its supply [16]. - The geopolitical instability surrounding Russian supplies adds another layer of uncertainty to the EU's rare earth sourcing strategy [16]. Group 8: Time Constraints and Recycling Issues - The lengthy process of rare earth mining and environmental approvals poses a significant challenge for the EU, with some projects taking over a decade to become operational [17]. - Despite initiatives for recycling rare earths, such as the establishment of a major recycling facility in Germany, high operational costs have led to its closure, revealing the difficulties in achieving the EU's recycling targets [17].

稀土这"工业维生素"，早成大国博弈的关键筹码，小到新能源电池，大到军工制导，缺了高纯度稀土寸步难行。 可最近俄罗斯的操作却让人费解，国防部长绍伊古亲自挂帅，砸7000亿卢布要搞稀土全产业链。 要知道它手握2850万吨储量，全球排第五，可今年产量却不足全球1%，多数靠进口。 此前普京还和中美谈过合作，如今为何突然"单干"？中国有顶尖技术，又为何不帮？ 提到稀土，不少人只知它是"工业维生素"，却未必清楚这不起眼的矿产早已成了大国博弈的"战略硬通货"。 小到新能源汽车的电池正极材料，大到隐形战机的涂层、导弹的制导系统，没有高纯度稀土，现代高精尖产业几乎寸步难行。 最近俄罗斯国防部长绍伊古亲自挂帅，宣布投入7000亿卢布（折合人民币约615亿元），要打造从矿石开采到下游应用的稀土全产业链。 这事儿乍听上去很有"破局"的气势，毕竟俄罗斯手里握着实打实的家底：全球第五的稀土储量，高达2850万吨，相当于揣着一座"战略宝库"。 但熟悉俄罗斯产业现状的人都知道，它之前在稀土领域一直是"捧着金碗要饭"。 今年全球稀土产量里，俄罗斯占比还不到1%，大部分需要的稀土制品都得靠进口。 这种"有矿没技术"的尴尬，其实早就让俄罗斯想在稀 ...