证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 上周行业大幅上涨，产业链价格坚挺上行 相关研究： 《产业链上游价格坚挺，下游新增需求限》 20250706 《上周行业反弹，产业链价格维持弱势》 20250629 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 7 17 60 绝对收益 10 24 76 -20% -5% 10% 25% 40% -20% 5% 30% 55% 80% 稀土磁材(长江)指数行业涨跌幅 对比基准:沪深300累计涨跌幅-右 ❑ 本周精矿价格普涨，镨钕价格在需求端集中招标叠加供给收紧双支撑下 上行，镝价上涨、铽价小幅上调，钕铁硼价格先涨后稳 ❑ 投资建议 1 行业一周涨跌幅统计时间区间为 2025/07/07 至 2025/07/11，下同。 2 估值历史分位数计算使用数据区间为 2012/02/17 至 2025/07/11，下同。 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc. ...

财务数据进一步印证了这一改善趋势。2024年，北方稀土实现营业收入329.7亿元，同比下降1.58%；实 现归母净利润10.04亿元，同比下降57.64%。而到了2025年一季度，北方稀土实现营业收入92.87亿元， 同比增长61.19%；实现归母净利润4.31亿元，同比增长高达727.3%。 此外，7月9日，北方稀土还发布公告称，预计2025年半年度公司实现归母净利润将达到9亿元到9.6亿 元，与去年同期相比，增加幅度高达1882.54%到2014.71%；扣非净利润预计为8.8亿元到9.4亿元，增长 幅度达到5538.33%到5922.76%。 相比之下，2024年包钢股份实现营业收入680.9亿元，同比下降3.51%；实现归母净利润2.65亿元，同比 下降48.64%。2025年一季度，包钢股份实现营业收入154.3亿元，同比下滑13.04%；实现归母净利润 4496万元，同比下降29.33%。尽管短期业绩承压，但稀土精矿的调价有望大幅改善其利润空间，后续 表现值得期待。 从需求端来看，全球新能源领域（如新能源汽车、风电）以及高端制造领域（如机器人、电子）对稀土 永磁材料的需求持续攀升。在供需紧平衡的背 ...

7月10日，北方稀土、包钢股份再度抛出涨价消息，将第三季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税19109元/吨（干量，REO=50%），REO每 增减1%、不含税价格增减382.18元/吨。 这已是两家企业连续四个季度上调稀土精矿价格。 自去年四季度开始持续涨价 周四晚间，北方稀土与包钢股份相继发布公告宣布涨价。 公告指出，按照计算公式和2025年第二季度稀土氧化物市场价格计算，拟将2025年第三季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税19109元/吨 （干量，REO=50%），REO每增减1%、不含税价格增减382.18元/吨。 | 股票代码:600010 | 股票简称:包钢股份 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码:163705 | 债券简称:20钢联03 | | 债券代码:175793 | 债券简称:GC钢联01 | 据了解，北方稀土与包钢股份的精矿采购采用年度协议+季度调价模式。双方约定，自2023年4月1日起，在稀土精矿定价公式不变的情况下， 每季度首月上旬，公司经理层根据稀土精矿定价公式计算、调整稀土精矿价格，重新签订稀土精矿供应合同或补充协议并公告。 值得注意的是，这轮涨价始于去年第四季度。当时 ...

7月10日晚间，北方稀土、包钢股份均发布公告称，两家公司拟将2025年第三季度的稀土精矿关联交易价格，调整为不含税19109元/ 吨（干量，REO=50%，下同），REO每增减1%，不含税价格增减382.18元/吨。 7月9日，北方稀土发布业绩预增公告称，公司预计2025年上半年的归母净利润为9亿元至9.6亿元，同比增长1882.54%至2014.71%； 扣非后净利润为8.8亿元到9.4亿元，同比增长5538.33%至5922.76%。 稀土价格上涨助力业绩预增 记者注意到，近一年来，北方稀土、包钢股份多次上调稀土精矿的关联交易价格。 截至7月10日收盘，北方稀土股价报27.01元/股，涨幅达10.02%，总市值为976.4亿元；包钢股份股价报1.90元/股，涨幅达4.40%，总 市值为860.5亿元。 【导读】北方稀土、包钢股份均公告稀土产品涨价，前者提前涨停 对于2025年上半年业绩预增，北方稀土在公告中提及，切实担当"两个稀土基地"建设主力军重任。 北方稀土在近期接待机构调研时表示，自2025年第一季度以来，受上游原料供应收紧以及下游消费刺激等影响，稀土市场整体活跃 度好于去年同期，对公司2025年第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent price increases of rare earth products by Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel, indicating a bullish outlook for the rare earth market driven by supply constraints and rising demand [2][4]. Price Adjustments - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced plans to adjust the price of rare earth concentrate to 19,109 RMB/ton (excluding tax) for Q3 2025, with a price change of 382.18 RMB/ton for every 1% change in REO content [2]. - Over the past year, both companies have repeatedly raised the prices of rare earth concentrates [4]. Performance Forecast - Northern Rare Earth expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a range of 900 million to 960 million RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 1,882.54% to 2,014.71% [7]. - The company also anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 880 million to 940 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 5,538.33% to 5,922.76% [7]. Market Dynamics - The rare earth market has shown improved activity since Q1 2025 due to tighter upstream raw material supply and stimulated downstream consumption, positively impacting Northern Rare Earth's performance [8]. - The company maintains a positive outlook on future rare earth price trends, supported by a full order book at its subsidiary [8]. Industry Context - Rare earth elements are classified into light and heavy rare earths, with heavy rare earths being rarer and more unevenly distributed, primarily concentrated in China [9]. - Recent export controls on heavy rare earths have led to significant price increases in Europe, with price differentials exceeding three times between domestic and international markets [9]. - The demand for rare earths is expected to grow due to industries such as electric vehicles, wind power, and home appliances, with humanoid robots anticipated to become a significant application area for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets [9][10].

据包钢股份披露，白云鄂博矿稀土储量折氧化物3500万吨，占国内稀土储量的81%，而目前 北方稀土是公司稀土精矿产品的唯一客户。 财联社整理了自2023年二季度以来，北方稀土每个季度采购包钢股份稀土精矿日常关联交易 的价格： 今日，包钢股份与北方稀土双双发布公告，宣布上调2025年第三季度稀土精矿关联交易价 格。 包钢股份公告称，根据公司2022年年度股东大会审议通过的稀土精矿价格调整机制及计算公 式，公司拟将2025年第三季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税19109元/吨（干量， REO=50%），REO每增减1%、不含税价格增减382.18元/吨。 与此同时，北方稀土也发布公告称，根据稀土精矿定价方法及2025年第二季度稀土氧化物价 格，经测算并经公司2025年第11次总经理办公会审议通过，2025年第三季度稀土精矿交易价 格调整为不含税19109元/吨（干量，REO=50%），REO每增减1%、不含税价格增减 382.18元/吨。 根据此前公告，上述两家公司将2025年第二季度稀土精矿交易价格调整为不含税18825元/ 吨。据此估算， 此次价格环比上涨1.51%。 值得一提的是，北方稀土与包钢股份的精矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel indicate a significant increase in the price of rare earth concentrate, reflecting a broader trend of rising prices in the rare earth market driven by supply constraints and increased demand [1][2][3]. Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth expects a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit of 0.9 billion to 0.96 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 855 million to 915 million yuan, equating to a growth rate of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [3]. - The company also anticipates a non-net profit of 0.88 billion to 0.94 billion yuan, with an increase of 865 million to 925 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5538.33% to 5922.76% [3]. - The performance surge is attributed to rising rare earth prices and improved operational efficiency, with the company achieving record production and sales [3]. Market Trends - The price of rare earth concentrate has been on an upward trajectory, with the proposed price for Q3 2025 set at 19,109 yuan per ton, up from 18,825 yuan in Q2 and 18,618 yuan in Q1 of 2025 [2]. - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow due to advancements in industries such as robotics and electric vehicles, leading to increased global demand for medium and heavy rare earths [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce has indicated a commitment to maintaining the stability of the global supply chain for rare earths, with ongoing approvals for export licenses contributing to market activity [4]. Industry Outlook - Analysts from Guotou Securities predict that the price of rare earths will continue to rise, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, due to supply chain concerns following export controls [5]. - The demand for rare earths is expected to remain strong, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles and wind power, with a potential supply-demand imbalance for praseodymium and neodymium [5]. - The overall market for rare earths is anticipated to experience a tightening supply situation, which could lead to further price increases [5]. Resource Distribution - Rare earth elements are classified into light and heavy categories, with heavy rare earths being rarer and more unevenly distributed, primarily concentrated in China [6]. - China holds over 80% of the global heavy rare earth reserves, with significant deposits located in provinces such as Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, and Yunnan [6].

稀土又要涨价了。 7月10日晚间，北方稀土、包钢股份双双公告，拟将2025年第三季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税19109元/吨（干量， REO=50%，下同），REO每增减1%、不含税价格增减382.18元/吨。 记者梳理北方稀土、包钢股份此前公告发现，近一年以来，稀土精矿交易价格持续上调。 | 时间 | 拟调整价格(元/吨) | | --- | --- | | 2025年第三季度 | 19109 | | 2025年第二季度 | 18825 | | 2025年第一季度 | 18618 | | 2024年第四季度 | 17782 | | 2024年第三季度 | 16741 | | 2024年第二季度 | 16792 | | 2024年第一季度 | 20737 | 稀土精矿交易价格（不含税） （数据来源：公告） 值得一提的是，就在昨日（7月9日），北方稀土发布业绩预增公告称，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年半年度实现归母净利 润9亿元到9.6亿元，与上年同期相比，将增加8.55亿元到9.15亿元，同比增长1882.54%至2014.71%。预计2025年半年度实现归母 扣非净利润8.8亿元到9.4亿元 ...

Group 1 - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.9 billion to 0.96 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.855 billion to 0.915 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [1] - Following the China-US trade negotiations, China has partially relaxed rare earth export controls, expediting the approval process for foreign companies' export licenses, which has alleviated the high demand for rare earths from Western companies [1] - As of June, there has been a certain recovery in rare earth product export orders, although the export process has been slightly prolonged due to the time taken for license processing and customs inspections [1] Group 2 - With the upcoming peak season for domestic new energy vehicles and the subsequent overseas restocking demand, rare earth prices are expected to continue rising, benefiting the sector and leading to a dual boost in performance and valuation for domestic rare earth magnetic material companies [2] - Major domestic companies in the rare earth sector include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Jinli Permanent Magnet [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a dense period of semi-annual performance forecasts, with over 120 listed companies having released their forecasts, and nearly 80% of these companies are expected to see profit increases, slight increases, continued earnings, or turnaround in losses [1][2] - Companies with core technologies, brand advantages, and global layouts are expected to continue leading the market and create excess returns for investors in the context of a stable and improving macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2 - Northern Rare Earth and Xianda Co. are among the companies expecting significant profit increases, with Northern Rare Earth forecasting a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [2][4] - Xianda Co. anticipates a net profit of 130 million to 150 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking an increase of 2443.43% to 2834.73% compared to the same period last year [5] Group 3 - Muyuan Foods expects a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 924.6% to 973.39% [6] - Other companies like Youfa Group and Yonghe Shares also expect to achieve doubled profits in the first half of the year [6] Group 4 - Nearly 80% of the companies that have released performance forecasts are expected to see profit increases, with Huayin Power being the "profit increase king," forecasting a net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3600.7% to 4423.07% [7][10] - Several companies, including Deep Shenzhen A and Xianggang Technology, are also expected to achieve doubled growth in their performance for the first half of the year [9] Group 5 - Industrial Fulian expects a net profit of 11.958 billion to 12.158 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.84% to 39.12%, driven by rapid growth in its cloud computing business [11][12] - The company has seen significant growth in AI server revenue, which increased by over 60% compared to the same period last year, and its market share among major clients continues to rise [11][12]