投资快报 . 投资快报在线看，股市广播在线听，财富俱乐部线上活动推广，投资者在线教育。 一、引言：稀土产业的"黄金时代"悄然开启 2025年7月，全球稀土市场迎来历史性时刻。包钢股份与北方稀土宣布将第三季度稀土精矿关 联交易价格上调至不含税19109元/吨（REO=50%），环比上涨1.51%，自2024年第四季度以 来已连续四个季度调价。供需紧平衡、政策护航与供应链重构成为关键词。本文将从价格、政 策与全球产业链布局三个维度，解析这场产业变革背后的逻辑与未来趋势。 二、国内稀土：价格四连涨背后的供需逻辑 1、价格持续上行，景气度触底反弹 以下文章来源于投资快报 ，作者越声理财 包钢股份与北方稀土的涨价潮并非偶然。数据显示，2025年第三季度稀土精矿价格较2024年 三季度低点累计上涨14.14%，而中国稀土行业协会最新价格指数为185.8，较年初提升13%。 这一趋势背后，是供需格局的根本性改善： 供应端：缅甸矿受雨季影响进口量下降，美国矿进口停滞，国内尾矿资源开发逐步释放产能 （如包钢股份年产45万吨稀土精矿能力）。 需求端：新能源车、风电、人形机器人等下游需求爆发，叠加海外订单恢复，推动主流产品价 格企 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 上周行业大幅上涨，产业链价格坚挺上行 相关研究： 《产业链上游价格坚挺，下游新增需求限》 20250706 《上周行业反弹，产业链价格维持弱势》 20250629 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 7 17 60 绝对收益 10 24 76 -20% -5% 10% 25% 40% -20% 5% 30% 55% 80% 稀土磁材(长江)指数行业涨跌幅 对比基准:沪深300累计涨跌幅-右 ❑ 本周精矿价格普涨，镨钕价格在需求端集中招标叠加供给收紧双支撑下 上行，镝价上涨、铽价小幅上调，钕铁硼价格先涨后稳 ❑ 投资建议 1 行业一周涨跌幅统计时间区间为 2025/07/07 至 2025/07/11，下同。 2 估值历史分位数计算使用数据区间为 2012/02/17 至 2025/07/11，下同。 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc. ...

Group 1 - China's sudden requirement for export licenses for heavy rare earths led to a 74% drop in rare earth magnet exports in May, causing significant concern among U.S. military and renewable energy companies [1][3] - The Chinese government has strategically opened a green channel for the EU and granted temporary licenses to U.S. car manufacturers, indicating a nuanced approach to international relations [1][3] - The policy shift is seen as a response to previous WTO rulings against China's quota system, now framed under national security and non-proliferation, allowing for more flexible control over exports [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. and its allies, including Japan and Australia, are reacting strongly, with the Pentagon discussing "decoupling" from China and Australian companies seeing stock price surges [5][7] - Rebuilding supply chains is expected to take at least five years, during which China may further solidify its position in the rare earth market [5][7] - The current situation highlights a broader geopolitical strategy where China uses rare earths as leverage against U.S. defense industries, with implications for future regulations in biomedicine and lithium batteries [5][7] Group 3 - The U.S. faces a dilemma: imposing similar controls could harm domestic companies, while negotiating could undermine political standing ahead of midterm elections [7] - The EU is proactively working on the Critical Raw Materials Act to mitigate risks while benefiting from China's green channel [7] - The situation serves as a lesson in modern economic warfare, emphasizing the importance of using export licenses to adjust supply chains rather than outright bans [7]

据智通财经报道，2025年7月1日，美国拉着日本、澳大利亚、印度在华盛顿搞了个"关键矿产合作倡议"，说白了就是四 国抱团搞稀土，想自己建一条从开采、精炼到供应的完整产业链，摆脱对中国的依赖。美国国务卿鲁比奥亲自站台，说 澳大利亚有矿、日本有技术、印度有资源，美国来定规则，四国要全方位合作。这阵仗不小，媒体都说这是印太战略的 升级，矛头直指中国。 稀土（资料图） 四国想摆脱中国，可他们缺的是把稀土从"泥"变成"货"的关键精炼环节。全球80%的稀土精炼能力在中国，澳大利亚的莱 纳斯公司搞了很久，2025年才做出少量氧化镝样品，量产遥遥无期。美国、日本、印度也各有难处，要么卡在环保批 文，要么技术不成熟，要么审批拖延，根本没法形成完整产业链。 中国这边法律生效的同时，"全国矿产审批平台"也上线了，全国稀土项目一个入口、一张表单、一次审批，全链路监 控、动态调度。以前搞稀土项目要填表、评估、走关系，现在国家统筹，地方配合，资源按战略调度，企业按规办事， 完全是国家层面的战略运作，和四国靠市场驱动的模式不一样，优势明显。 中国的出口管制让美国吃了苦头，磁性材料进口量下降，军工相关产业受影响，订单延期，美国不得不和中国谈 ...

印度的稀土困境：莫迪的"历史性外交冲刺"与现实的残酷碰撞 新德里战略研究室的地图上，连接亚非拉的矿产供应链虚线，正被现实一点点残酷地擦去。印度汽车零件仓库里，工人们正拆解废旧电机，从其中抠取珍贵 的磁铁，二手稀土在黑市上价格暴涨了30倍。这幅景象，是莫迪政府"历史性外交冲刺"的真实注脚，一场旨在摆脱对中国稀土依赖的战略突围，却遭遇了现 实的严峻挑战。 里约峰会落幕时，莫迪的专机掠过基督山雕像，机舱内的简报显示：与巴西达成的稀土协议仅为"联合研究意向"，阿根廷锂矿合同受阻于环保审批，纳米比 亚铀矿谈判因价格分歧搁浅。这场被印媒誉为"历史性外交冲刺"的八天环球访问，最终收获甚微，暴露了印度在稀土领域的脆弱与无奈。 峰会前五天，莫迪刚刚出席在华盛顿举行的美日印澳"四方安全对话"，四国启动"关键矿产倡议"以对抗中国的供应链主导地位。 然而，在金砖峰会现场， 印度却展现出战略上的分裂：一边与美国亲密互动，甚至向WTO就美印汽车关税战提起申诉；一边在峰会宣言草案中塞入"多极化世界"的口号，试图平衡 与中俄的关系。这种摇摆不定的策略，甚至招致了南非和俄罗斯的质疑。 俄罗斯代表直言不讳地指出："技术荒漠想建绿洲？ " 南非代 ...

Group 1 - The A-share rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks showed strength at the beginning of trading, with Jingyuntong hitting the daily limit for the second consecutive day, and Benlang New Materials rising over 6% [1] - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced an increase in the price of rare earth concentrate to 19,109 yuan/ton excluding tax, a month-on-month increase of 1.5% [1] - Guotou Securities believes that with the gradual recovery of exports, the price gap between domestic and foreign medium and heavy rare earths is expected to narrow, and is optimistic about the price increase of domestic dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide [1]

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced adjustments to their rare earth concentrate pricing, reflecting a continued upward trend in prices over the past year, with Northern Rare Earth's stock hitting a limit up on the announcement [1][2]. Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [2]. - The company also anticipates a non-GAAP net profit of 880 million to 940 million yuan, indicating a staggering growth of 5538.33% to 5922.76% year-on-year [2]. Market Dynamics - Since the first quarter of 2025, the rare earth market has seen increased activity due to tighter upstream raw material supply and stimulating policies for downstream consumption, positively impacting Northern Rare Earth's performance [4]. - The company has focused on enhancing production efficiency, optimizing raw material and product structures, and expanding market reach, achieving record production and sales [4]. Industry Outlook - According to Guotou Securities, the overall quota growth for rare earths is expected to slow down, while demand from sectors like electric vehicles, wind power, and home appliances continues to rise [4]. - The report also highlights a potential demand gap in the global praseodymium-neodymium oxide market, with prices expected to rise as exports recover and domestic price differentials narrow [5]. - GF Securities notes that under uncertain tariff policies, China's rare earth mining indicators may see stricter management, and the strategic value of rare earth permanent magnets will continue to grow [6].

Core Viewpoint - Recent revelations about rare earth smuggling highlight the complexity and secrecy of international rare earth trade, with significant increases in imports from Thailand and Mexico raising suspicions of "label washing" from China to the US [1][3]. Group 1: Smuggling Mechanisms - Chinese agents are reportedly labeling controlled rare earth minerals like gallium and antimony as "iron ore" or "zinc concentrate" to facilitate illegal exports through Mexico and Thailand [3]. - Mexico's geographical proximity to the US and low customs inspection rates make it an ideal smuggling route, while Thailand's busy transshipment ports and regulatory loopholes further enable these activities [5]. - Smugglers can earn commissions of 12%-15% per ton of rare earths transported, significantly higher than standard rates for regular goods [5]. Group 2: Legal and Regulatory Environment - The US has been criticized for allowing companies to exploit legal loopholes, as evidenced by a court ruling that exempted third-country transshipments of rare earths from the Clean Supply Chain Act [5]. - Recent smuggling cases have revealed collusion between Chinese companies and US military contractors, with advanced technologies being used to disguise shipments [7]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Smuggling Incentives - The price of key rare earth elements has surged by 200% since China implemented export controls, with dysprosium and terbium reaching $3,000 per kilogram, driving smuggling activities [9]. - Smuggling operations are more cost-effective and efficient compared to legal imports, with profit margins reaching 55% due to lower logistics costs and fewer regulatory hurdles [9]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - Regulatory authorities have initiated measures targeting false declarations and third-country transshipments, with technological upgrades aiding in detection efforts [11]. - The implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law has increased penalties for rare earth smuggling, establishing a national traceability platform for rare earths [11]. Group 5: Impact of Regulatory Measures - Since May, the volume of rare earth imports through non-standard channels in the US has decreased by 67%, indicating a weakening of smuggling networks [12]. - The development of recycling technologies for rare earths is reducing the incentive for smuggling, with costs only 18% of those for new mining [12].

| 报价周期 | | 报价 | 环比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (元/吨) | (%) | | 2025 | 三季度 | 19, 109 | 1.51 | | | 二季度 | 18, 825 | 1.11 | | | 季度 | 18, 618 | 4. 70 | | 2024 | 四季度 | 17, 782 | 6. 22 | | | 三季度 | 16, 741 | -0. 30 | | | 二季度 | 16, 792 | -19. 02 | | | 季度 | 20, 737 | 0. 98 | | 2023 | 四季度 | 20, 536 | 1. 78 | | | 三季度 | 20, 176 | -34. 98 | | | 二季度 | 31, 030 | 1 | | | | L 士 八 三 八 中 小 中文库 | | 从2 0 2 4年四季度起，稀土精矿日常关联交易价格开始止跌企稳，已呈现了连续四个季度环比上涨。 图源/财联社 值得注意的是，美股稀土概念股盘前大涨，MP Materials一度涨超48%，USA Rare Earth一度 涨超21%，Energ ...

北方稀土与包钢股份此前约定，自2023年4月1日起，在稀土精矿定价公式不变的情况下，每季度首月上旬，公司经理层根据稀土精矿定价公式计算、调整稀 土精矿价格，重新签订稀土精矿供应合同或补充协议并公告。 上述研报进一步分析，需求端，新能源车、风电、家电等需求持续高增，预计短期人形机器人迎来量产，正迅速成为高性能钕铁硼的重要应用领域，目前头 部磁材企业已开始供应订单。随着需求持续增长，镨钕供需或将迎来改善。研报预计未来全球镨钕氧化物市场会出现需求缺口，镨钕价格有望持续上涨。伴 随出口逐步恢复，国内外中重稀土价差有望收敛，看好国内氧化镝、氧化铽价格上涨。 据了解，稀土是17种元素的总称，是不可再生的战略资源。根据其物理化学性质及分布情况，可分为轻稀土和中重稀土两大类。轻稀土储量较丰富且分布广 泛，而中重稀土更为稀罕且分布不均，大部分集中在中国。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 7月10日晚间，国内稀土双巨头北方稀土（600111.SH）、包钢股份（600010.SH）双双公告，拟将2025年第三季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税19109 元/吨（干量，REO=50%，下同），REO每增减1%、不含税价格增减382 ...