行业点评 | 有色金属 稀土出口管控持续强化，二次资源回收正式进入管控范畴 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 09 日 稀土产业政策点评 2025 年 10 月 9 日，商务部发布两项关于加强稀土相关物项出口管制的公 告，分别是对含有中国成分的部分境外稀土相关物项实施出口管制（商务部 公告 2025 年第 61 号）和对稀土相关技术实施出口管制（商务部公告 2025 年第 62 号）。 （一）对含有中国成分的部分境外稀土相关物项实施出口管制。管制原因为 部分境外组织和个人将原产中国的稀土管制物项直接或加工后转移、提供给 有关组织和个人，用于军事等敏感领域，对中国国家安全和利益造成重大损 害或潜在威胁。管制对象为境外组织和个人在向中国以外的其他国家和地区 出口含有、集成或者混有原产于中国的特定物项且价值比例达到 0.1% 及以 上的物项、使用原产于中国的相关技术在境外生产的特定物项以及原产于中 国的特定物项时，必须获得中国商务部颁发的两用物项出口许可证件。具体 管控金属仍以中重稀土为主，具体包含金属钐、金属镝、金属钆、金属铽、 金属镥、金属钪、金属钇、钐钴合金、铽铁合金、镝铁合金、铽镝铁合金、 氧化镝、氧化 ...

«——【·前言·】——» 中澳贸易再起波澜，这回发生了什么事？难道澳大利亚又对中国开枪了？ «——【·一场突如其来的贸易震荡·】——» 9月的最后一天，全球矿业市场被一则重磅消息掀起惊涛骇浪。中国矿产资源集团突然宣布，暂停采购 必和必拓所有以美元计价的海运铁矿石。 这一决定如同多米诺骨牌，瞬间引发连锁反应：新加坡铁矿石期货价格应声上涨1.8%，澳大利亚股市 开盘后必和必拓股价暴跌6%，市值蒸发超百亿美元。 更令澳大利亚焦虑的是，该国85%的铁矿石出口依赖中国市场，此次订单清零直接影响其GDP的1.2个 百分点，国库部已将2025-2026财年经济增长预期下调至2.1%。 消息传出后，澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯坐不住了。他在第一时间公开表态，称中方的决定"令人失望"， 并急切呼吁"澳大利亚铁矿石应畅通无阻地出口到中国"。 然而，这位总理或许没有意识到，这场看似突然的贸易摩擦，实则是中澳稀土博弈长期积累的必然结 果。 此次中方叫停交易，表面上看是政治博弈，实则是一场精心策划的商业行为。其中，市场因素起到了关 键作用。近年来，全球铁矿石市场供需格局发生了重大变化。 随着中国钢铁行业的转型升级，对铁矿石的需求增速放缓。与 ...

小金属：国内市场延续弱势运行，锑锭价格下调。本周2#高铋锑锭市场价格为16.75万 元/吨，2#低铋锑锭市场价格为16.95万元/吨，1#锑锭市场价格为17.05万元/吨，0#锑锭市场 价格为17.35万元/吨，均价较上周同期下调0.3万元/吨；本周氧化锑价格下调，99.5%三氧化 二锑市场价格14.15万元/吨，均价较上周同期价格下调0.3万元/吨；99.8%三氧化二锑市场价 格15万元/吨，均价较上周同期价格下调0.25万元/吨；本周锑市场仍呈弱势运行，供需端， 原料矿低价现货难买，且报价调价谨慎，矿商挺价意愿强烈，价格阴跌下，卖货商采买也同 样谨慎，原料成本就锑价支撑强劲；冶炼厂目前虽保持开工状态但整体出货量不大，绝大多 数冶炼厂保留有一条生产线开工；需求端则继无利好提振，普遍反馈询单一般，下游选择面 较多，采购氧化锑99.5%情况好于氧化锑99.8%；本周成交情绪保持疲软状态，询单在国庆 假期前夕未见明显好转，各家均为维护老客户订单为主；此节点下，各家库存所剩不多，买 方市场下对市场看涨积极性不高。建议关注：湖南黄金，华锡有色，华钰矿业，豫光金铅。 稀土永磁：价格震荡，基本面改善方向不改。具体价格方面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.07% [2] - Main business revenue reached 3.226 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.08% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 305 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 154.81% [2] - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 234 million yuan, up 588.18% year-on-year [2] Business Development - The company upgraded its R&D department to focus on the embodied robot motor rotor business, indicating a strategic shift towards high-performance neodymium-iron-boron materials [3] - Small batch deliveries of embodied robot motor rotors and magnetic materials were made in the first half of 2025, positioning this sector as a future growth point [3] Raw Material Procurement and Inventory - The company established large magnetic material factories in key production areas, with 70% of raw material procurement coming from strategic partnerships with major suppliers [4] - Raw material inventory reached 1.158 billion yuan, a 107.02% increase from the end of 2024 [4] Dividend Strategy - The company has consistently implemented cash dividends since its listing in 2018, with cumulative cash dividends exceeding 1.2 billion yuan, accounting for over 47% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5] - For the first half of 2025, a cash dividend of 1.80 yuan per 10 shares is proposed, totaling approximately 247 million yuan, which represents 81% of the net profit for the period [5] Rare Earth Recycling Initiatives - The company holds a 51% stake in Yinhai New Materials, focusing on rare earth recycling, with an annual production capacity of 5,000 tons of rare earth products [6] - In the first half of 2025, Yinhai New Materials reported operating revenue of 78.89 million yuan and a net profit of 13.59 million yuan [7] Capacity Expansion - The company’s actual production capacity for magnetic materials in 2024 was 3.2 million tons, with plans for further expansion [8] - The "Annual Production of High-Performance Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Green Intelligent Manufacturing Project" is under construction, aiming for completion by 2027 [8]

证券日报网讯三川智慧（300066）9月24日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司控股子公司天和永 磁主要从事稀土资源回收利用业务，主要产品包括氧化镨钕、氧化镝、氧化铽、氧化钆、氧化钬等稀土 氧化物，这些产品都在国内市场销售，没有出口。 ...

Group 1 - The company has an annual production capacity of 1,500 tons and currently does not have export qualifications [2] - The main products of the company's subsidiary, Tianhe Yongci, include rare earth oxides such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, terbium oxide, gadolinium oxide, and holmium oxide [2] - The company's products are primarily sold in the domestic market, with no exports reported [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][46] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a significant decline of 8.06% this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 7.62 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) decreased from 95.79x to 88.3x, currently at the 94.2% historical percentile [5][12] - Supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to slightly increase due to stable operations of separation enterprises and increased output from recycling companies, while demand remains stable with expectations of increased end-user consumption in October [7][45] - The market is anticipated to remain in a stalemate with overall rare earth prices stabilizing [7][45] Market Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of -5%, a 3-month return of 37%, and a 12-month return of 108% [4] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 1%, 55%, and 149% respectively [4] Price Trends - Prices for light rare earth concentrates have mostly rebounded, while medium and heavy rare earth prices remain weak [9][14] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.7% to 571,000 CNY/ton, and the metal price decreased by 0.43% to 700,000 CNY/ton [19][22] - The price of neodymium-iron-boron blanks saw a slight increase of 0.7% to 144.5 CNY/kg [41] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply is slightly increasing due to stable operations in the praseodymium and neodymium segment, while demand is supported by stable orders from major magnetic material manufacturers [7][45] - The demand from downstream sectors such as new energy vehicles is showing marginal decline, while industrial trends remain positive [7][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a cautious approach due to potential valuation adjustments from suppressed risk appetite, while focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and growth potential [10][46][47]

Group 1: Base Metals - Copper prices have decreased, with Shanghai copper closing at 80,080 yuan/ton, influenced by the conclusion of central bank meetings and a gradual recovery in downstream orders as the peak season progresses [1] - The supply side shows notable contradictions, with domestic smelters undergoing maintenance but not significantly impacting supply due to imports; however, increased downstream orders are expected to boost refined copper consumption [1] - Aluminum prices have also seen a phase adjustment, with Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,760 yuan/ton; the overall theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decrease, leading to increased theoretical profits for the industry [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have risen following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with domestic gold averaging 829.33 yuan/gram and silver at 9,964 yuan/kilogram, reflecting market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [2] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in COMEX gold and silver prices, with gold trading between 3,650-3,700 USD/oz and silver between 41.5-42.0 USD/oz [2] - Suggested companies for investment include China National Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [2] Group 3: Minor Metals - The domestic market for antimony continues to operate weakly, with prices for various grades of antimony ingots and oxides decreasing by 0.4 million yuan/ton compared to the previous week [3] - There is a cautious attitude among major manufacturers regarding price adjustments, and the market is characterized by a weak supply-demand balance, leading to a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment [3] - Short-term price stability is expected for antimony ingots, with a forecasted range of 172,000-175,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - Prices for rare earths have shown slight increases, with light rare earth oxide prices decreasing by 0.7% to 571,000 yuan/ton, while heavy rare earth oxides remain stable [4] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, with processing fees rising above 20,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential upward trend in the sector [4] - Companies to watch include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Guangxi Rare Earth [5]

Group 1: Rare Earths - Recent price movements show a 4.18% decrease in praseodymium and neodymium oxide to 572,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide increased by 0.62% to 1,625,000 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide rose by 1.41% to 7,175,000 CNY/ton [1][2] - The Pentagon has agreed to invest $400 million in MPMaterials, becoming its largest shareholder, and set a procurement price of $110 per kilogram for the two most commonly used rare earths, neodymium and praseodymium [1][2] - MPMaterials has announced a $500 million partnership with Apple to supply critical raw materials for its electronic products [1][2] - Supply-side signals indicate tightening at low-priced mines, while demand is characterized by a wait-and-see attitude, leading companies to focus on inventory consumption [2] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices increased by 0.22% to 4,515 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices decreased by 0.69% to 287,500 CNY/ton [3] - Supply-side signals indicate a gradual contraction in molybdenum concentrate, while demand is stimulated by ongoing steel procurement [3] Group 3: Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 13.60% to 284,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 12.16% to 415,000 CNY/ton [3] - Supply-side constraints due to reduced mining quotas and stable domestic demand are supporting tungsten prices [3] Group 4: Tin - SHFE tin prices fell by 1.69% to 274,000 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices decreased by 2.14% to $34,800/ton [4] - Supply-side issues due to low operating rates in Yunnan's refining tin smelting enterprises are leading to tight spot supply [4] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony ingot prices remained stable at 182,500 CNY/ton, while antimony concentrate prices held steady at 160,000 CNY/ton [4] - Supply-side constraints from overseas mines and low operating rates in smelting plants are affecting the market [4] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant breakthroughs in welding technology recognized internationally [5] - CFS has raised $863 million in its latest funding round, with plans to deploy a nuclear fusion reactor in Japan by the late 2030s or early 2040s [5] - The industry is experiencing high growth potential, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [5]