2025年12月17日稀土市场行情： 根据包头稀土产品交易所显示，今日稀土主流产品价格保持弱稳。氧化镨钕均价57.70万元/吨，下跌 0.04万元/吨；金属镨钕均价69.89万元/吨，下跌0.34万元/吨；氧化镝均价140.10万元/吨，下跌0.04万元/ 吨；氧化铽均价621.17万元/吨，下跌3.00万元/吨。今日询价氧化钕、氧化镨、氧化镧铈、氧化铕、氧 化钇等产品成交信息较少，请慎重参考。目前，镨钕市场成交僵持，价格继续保持弱稳运行，下游采购 有限，商家观望持续。中重稀土市场保持少量刚需成交，近期氧化镝刚需采购增多，活跃度继续提升。 整体来看，稀土市场整体氛围依旧偏淡，近期稀土价格或继续保持弱稳走势，同时应提高对中重稀土市 场的关注。 作者：行情君 A股市场部分稀土永磁概念股行情表现（2025年12月17日） 代码名称最新价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额002738中矿资源67.448.5824.86亿元600549厦门钨业 41.595.9331.08亿元002497雅化集团23.05.8415.03亿元301092争光股份37.174.562.70亿元002056横店东磁 19.463.954.94亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Core Viewpoint - The discovery of a rare earth mine in Kazakhstan with over 20 million tons of reserves has attracted significant investment from U.S. companies, but challenges remain due to China's dominance in processing and geopolitical factors [1][3][11]. Group 1: Investment and Geopolitical Context - In April, Kazakhstan confirmed a rare earth deposit, prompting U.S. companies to invest $110 million for potential collaboration [3][11]. - Kazakhstan's geographical limitations and the instability of traditional export routes due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict complicate its ability to sell rare earths to the U.S. [3][5]. - The U.S. aims to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals, with Kazakhstan's involvement seen as a strategic move in this direction [11][41]. Group 2: Processing Challenges - U.S. companies face significant hurdles in processing rare earths, as they require substantially more hydrochloric acid compared to Chinese operations, indicating a major efficiency gap [17][19]. - The U.S. currently produces only about 5% of the world's rare earths, with processing capabilities lagging behind China, which dominates the market [13][17]. - The technical barriers to refining rare earths are high, and the investment required to overcome these challenges is substantial, indicating a long-term issue rather than a short-term fix [11][21]. Group 3: Regulatory Landscape - China has implemented new regulations that require permits for products containing a minimum percentage of Chinese-origin rare earths, tightening control over the supply chain [25][27]. - The strategic maneuvering by China reflects a shift from broad management to more precise regulatory frameworks, impacting international trade dynamics [25][27]. - The U.S. is attempting to navigate these regulations while balancing its own domestic needs and international partnerships, particularly with Kazakhstan [29][33]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing geopolitical struggle over rare earths is reshaping global supply chains, with significant implications for industries reliant on these materials, such as electric vehicles and high-tech manufacturing [41][45]. - Predictions indicate that continued decoupling between the U.S. and China in critical minerals could lead to increased production costs and delays in the transition to electric vehicles [45][49]. - The competition is evolving from resource acquisition to defining rules and standards, highlighting the importance of technological advancement in determining future market dynamics [49][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the new materials industry [7]. Core Insights - The new materials sector underperformed the CSI 300 index in November 2025, with a decline of 4.03% compared to the CSI 300's decline of 2.70%, resulting in a 1.33 percentage point lag [7][11]. - The sector's trading volume was 22,734.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.55% decrease from the previous month [7]. - The semiconductor materials segment continues to show growth, with global semiconductor sales reaching $69.47 billion in September 2025, marking a 25.1% year-on-year increase [42][43]. - The report highlights significant growth in the export volume and value of industrial diamonds in October, with exports amounting to 1.39 million tons and a value of $19.7 million, representing a 16.91% year-on-year increase [51]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The new materials index's performance in November was weaker than the CSI 300, with a decline of 4.03% [11]. - Most stocks in the new materials sector experienced declines, with 113 out of 170 stocks falling [18]. - The sector's valuation decreased, with the new materials index's PE ratio at 28.96, down 6.81% from the previous month [22]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking - In October, the CPI turned from decline to growth, increasing by 0.2% year-on-year, while the PPI's decline narrowed to 2.1% [30][31]. - Basic metal prices showed mixed results in November, with copper down 0.81% and tin up 3.54% [37]. - The global semiconductor market continues to grow, with a 25.1% year-on-year increase in sales [42]. - The export of superhard materials showed a significant increase in October, with a notable rise in export value [51]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes the issuance of an action plan for the upgrade of the non-ferrous metal industry in Henan Province [1]. - The establishment of a diamond wafer factory by Diamond Foundry is highlighted as a significant development in the new materials sector [1].

Group 1 - The rare earth sector experienced a strong rally on November 20, 2025, with the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index rising by 1.63% [1] - Key stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy surged by 9.99%, Guangsheng Nonferrous by 6.72%, and Greeenmei by 4.10% [1] - Domestic light rare earth market prices increased, with prices for metals like praseodymium and neodymium reaching 670,000 CNY/ton and 700,000 CNY/ton respectively [1] Group 2 - Investment firm Guotou Securities noted that from July to September, exports of magnetic materials showed positive year-on-year growth, indicating a trend of increasing domestic and international demand [1] - The potential implementation of a whitelist system for rare earth supply is expected to drive a new round of price increases, with companies like Beifang Rare Earth and Baogang announcing price hikes for rare earth concentrates [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index accounted for 61.61% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in key players [1] Group 3 - The Jiashi Rare Earth ETF (516150) closely tracks the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to access the domestic rare earth industry chain [2] - Investors can also utilize the Jiashi Rare Earth ETF linked fund (011036) to capitalize on investment opportunities in the rare earth sector [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.2% [1][15] - The US core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][17] - Copper prices are experiencing strong performance, nearing $11,000 per ton due to supply concerns and optimistic trade outlooks [3][20] - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association emphasizes the need to prevent "involution" and ensure supply chain security [4][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the nonferrous metals sector increased by 1.13%, underperforming the index [9] Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases, particularly copper, which is projected to continue rising due to supply disruptions [22] - LME copper price was $10,947 per ton, up 3.21% week-on-week, while SHFE copper price was 87,720 yuan per ton, up 3.95% [22][28] Strategic Metals - New policies on rare earth exports are expected to benefit the heavy rare earth sector in the short term [46] Company Recommendations - For industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining are recommended for investment [53] - In the strategic metals sector, companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Xiamen Tungsten are highlighted for potential growth [54]

Group 1: Rare Earth Industry - The strategic value of rare earths is highlighted as an irreplaceable "countermeasure" in geopolitical conflicts, especially in the context of U.S.-China trade tensions [6][7]. - China's recent strict export controls on rare earths, including a ban on core technology exports, have raised expectations that controlling or halting rare earth exports to the U.S. could be a significant retaliatory measure [8][9]. - The global supply of rare earths is dominated by China, which accounts for over 60% of production and 85% of refining capacity, creating a significant barrier for other countries attempting to establish their own supply chains [14][15]. - The demand for rare earths is driven by the global energy revolution and technological advancements, particularly in electric vehicles, wind energy, and military applications [12][13]. - Recent price surges in rare earth materials, such as dysprosium and praseodymium, have led to significant increases in orders for leading companies in the sector, reflecting a clear price increase logic [19][20]. - The performance of companies in the rare earth sector, such as Northern Rare Earth and Shenghe Resources, has shown substantial profit growth, with Northern Rare Earth projecting a net profit increase of 272.54%-287.34% year-on-year [21][22]. Group 2: Gold Market - Gold has emerged as a key focus in the market, reaching historical highs due to its status as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions and market volatility [27][28]. - Factors supporting the rise in gold prices include expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a global trend towards "de-dollarization," leading to increased central bank purchases of gold [28][30]. - The Gold ETF (518680) has shown strong performance, with a net asset growth of 52.07% over the past year, making it the top-performing gold ETF in the market [30][32]. - The low management and custody fees of the Gold ETF, along with its T+0 trading capability, make it an attractive option for investors seeking to hedge against market uncertainties [32]. - The combination of rare earths and gold represents a dual strategy for investors, with rare earths focusing on growth opportunities and gold providing stability and protection against market fluctuations [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on non-ferrous resource stocks during the easing cycle [1][2]. Core Views - The report highlights that U.S. employment and inflation data fell short of expectations, leading to an increased expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, which has positively impacted the prices of metals such as copper, gold, and aluminum [1]. - The focus remains on various metals including copper, gold, silver, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten, antimony, and cobalt, alongside a continuous recommendation for technology-related new material stocks [1]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal industry index saw a weekly increase of 3.76%, ranking fifth among sectors [4]. - The precious metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 5.13%, while industrial metals and small metals also showed positive performance [4]. - The report notes that the largest weekly gain was observed in Shenzhen Xinxing, which rose by 25.4%, primarily due to its business in aluminum grain refiners and lithium hexafluorophosphate [4]. - Conversely, Yian Technology saw the largest decline of 8.1%, attributed to weak demand in the new energy vehicle parts and consumer electronics sectors [4]. Metal Price Trends - The report indicates that the price of praseodymium oxide increased by 8.58% due to sustained demand from the new energy and rare earth magnet sectors, particularly in electric vehicles and wind power equipment [4]. - In contrast, dysprosium oxide prices fell by 1.50% due to weak demand in downstream industries and the gradual release of accumulated inventory [4]. - Copper inventory in major regions increased by 3,700 tons to 144,300 tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 154,000 tons [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment is currently dominating the market, with a strong expectation of interest rate cuts influencing trading behavior [4]. - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive, with the sector's valuation at historical low levels, providing a high margin of safety [4]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and others for potential investment opportunities [4]. Specific Metal Insights - For aluminum, the report notes a slight decrease in inventory, indicating a potential turning point in the market [5]. - The report also highlights the importance of monitoring the response of aluminum consumption to price increases and the overall macroeconomic conditions [5]. - In the rare earth sector, the report maintains a positive long-term outlook, recommending companies involved in rare earth production and magnetic materials [7].

Core Insights - Northern Rare Earth reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 18.866 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 45.24%, and net profit attributable to shareholders soaring by 1951.52% to 931 million yuan [1] - The surge in performance is attributed to increased sales volume of key rare earth products and a continuous rise in prices since the beginning of the year [1][3] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 18.866 billion yuan, up 45.24% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 931 million yuan, a dramatic increase of 1951.52% [1] - Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses reached 897 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 5644.93% [1] - Net cash flow from operating activities was 925 million yuan, an increase of 1251.81% year-on-year [1] Production and Sales - The company achieved record high production levels for rare earth products, with rare earth metal production increasing by 28.10% year-on-year and functional materials production rising by 16.65% [2] - Sales volume of rare earth oxides reached 20,200 tons, up 15.71% year-on-year; rare earth salts sales were 64,800 tons, a 45.41% increase; and rare earth metals sales hit 22,400 tons, growing by 32.33% [2] - Sales of magnetic materials also saw a significant increase, reaching 34,700 tons, up 25.39% year-on-year [2] Price Dynamics - The primary driver of profit growth was the general price increase of rare earth elements, with praseodymium oxide prices rising over 58% and neodymium oxide prices increasing by 62.95% year-to-date [3] - The price of neodymium-iron-boron magnets also surged, with N35 grade increasing by 51.3% and H35 grade by 28% [3] - Historical performance indicates a strong correlation between the company's earnings and rare earth prices, with past price fluctuations significantly impacting profitability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing a significant performance surge, with major companies reporting substantial profit increases, indicating a recovery in industry sentiment [1][3]. Industry Performance - A-share rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks saw a collective surge, with companies like Beikong Technology hitting the daily limit and others like Lichong Group and Longci Technology rising over 10% [2]. - Northern Rare Earth reported a net profit of approximately 9.31 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1951.52%, with revenue reaching 188.66 billion yuan, up 45.24% [3]. - Other rare earth companies also reported significant profit growth, with several achieving over 100% year-on-year increases in net profit [3]. Price Trends - The average price of major rare earth products has risen by over 100,000 yuan per ton since August, with specific products like praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide seeing year-to-date increases of 58% and 62.95%, respectively [6]. - The demand for praseodymium and neodymium metals is being driven by multiple major magnet manufacturers, leading to a surge in domestic orders and a significant increase in inventory replenishment [6]. Policy and Regulation - Recent regulations from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have established total control management for rare earth mining and processing, indicating a structured approach to supply management [4]. - The implementation of a quota system for domestic rare earth production is expected to constrain supply, while overseas production expansion is progressing slowly [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the rare earth permanent magnet sector will continue to see strong demand, with some companies extending production schedules into mid-October [7]. - The global supply of rare earths may face shortages in 2025-2026, with domestic production subject to annual quotas and limited overseas supply sources [6][7].