2025 年 8 月 25 日 行业研究 供改文件正式落地，稀土上行动力仍存 ——稀土行业跟踪报告之四 要点 事件： 2025 年 8 月 22 日，工信部发布《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管 理暂行办法》（下文简称《管理暂行办法》）。而在 2025 年 2 月 19 日，工信 部曾发布《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法（暂行）（公开征求 意见稿）》（下文简称《征求意见稿》）。 两版暂行办法重要区别 1：稀土年度配额不再对社会公开。根据《征求意见稿》， 工业和信息化部会同有关部门确定稀土开采企业和稀土冶炼分离企业，并向社会 公布；而在《管理暂行办法》中，则不再有"向社会公布"的字眼，具体表述为 "并通报有关省级人民政府工业和信息化、自然资源主管部门。" 配额市场预期收紧。根据包钢股份 2024 年年报，2025 年全年预计包钢稀土精 矿产量增加 3.4%，叠加 2025 年 4 月初我国对中重稀土实施出口管制、我国另 一指标控制金属——钨的第一批配额同比去年下降 6.45%等因素，我们倾向于认 为今年稀土配额端的增量有限。 两版暂行办法重要区别 2：对稀土开采冶炼的定义和适用范围拓宽。《征求意见 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the rare earth industry, indicating a potential for significant price increases and improved valuations due to supply reforms and market dynamics [6][40]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "Interim Measures for Total Control of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation" marks a significant regulatory shift, enhancing government control over the rare earth supply chain [1][12]. - Rapid increases in processing fees for heavy rare earths signal a tightening supply and improved bargaining power for compliant smelting plants [2][14]. - Export volumes for key rare earth materials are recovering, with notable increases in the export of neodymium-iron-boron, suggesting a positive trend for future exports [3][20]. - Supply disruptions from Myanmar's mining operations could further impact the domestic supply of rare earths, particularly if mining is halted as planned [4][36]. - Future quotas for rare earth mining may not be publicly disclosed, indicating a more controlled and potentially limited supply growth [5][40]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Regulatory Changes - The "Interim Measures" officially include previously unregulated imported ore processing, establishing a traceability system for better supply monitoring [1][12]. Section 2: Processing Fees - Heavy rare earth processing fees surged from 1,500 RMB/ton to 15,000 RMB/ton, reflecting a tightening market and reduced buyer interest in imported ores [2][14]. Section 3: Export Recovery - Following export controls in April 2025, there was a recovery in export volumes for terbium and neodymium-iron-boron, with July figures showing a 6% increase in neodymium-iron-boron exports [3][20]. Section 4: Supply Disruptions - Myanmar's mining operations face potential halts, which could significantly affect the domestic supply of neodymium and praseodymium [4][36]. Section 5: Quota Management - The first batch of mining and smelting separation quotas for 2025 has been issued but may not be publicly disclosed in the future, suggesting a more conservative growth outlook [5][40]. Section 6: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth, which are positioned to benefit from supply reforms and market dynamics [6][43][44].

国金证券主要观点如下： 《暂行办法》落地，供改大幕正式拉开 时隔半年，《暂行办法》较2月份发布的《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理办法(暂行)(公开征求 意见稿)》(以下简称《征求意见稿》)，对于稀土行业在监管主体、管控范围、实施主体和产品追溯等范 围进行了落地和明确。《暂行办法》正式将过去游离在体系外的进口矿冶炼业务纳入管控，且正式确立 追溯管理系统，对于行业供应实施更大范围、更高级别监控;同时，对于稀土生产实施主体的认定，完 全由工信部会同自然资源部确定，表明国家对于稀土行业供应掌控力度提高的决心。 国金证券发布研报称，8月22日工信部、国家发展改革委、自然资源部发布《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离 总量调控管理暂行办法》。涨价、供改兑现、供应扰动叠加板块战略属性提升，稀土板块将继续演化估 值业绩双升，资源端建议关注中国稀土(000831.SZ)、广晟有色(600259.SH)、北方稀土(600111.SH)、包 钢股份(600010.SH);磁材环节受益标的：金力永磁(300748.SZ)。 自2025年4月我国实施出口管制后，氧化铽、钕铁硼出口量出现下滑，随后开始修复。2025年7月氧化 铽、钕铁硼材料出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economic and trade landscape is undergoing profound restructuring, with the U.S. deviating from its long-standing advocacy for trade liberalization, imposing tariffs on various trade partners, including China, which exacerbates trade policy uncertainty and severely impacts the global economy [1] Group 1: New Quality Productivity - New quality productivity has emerged as a core support for China's trade resilience, with a 2.9% year-on-year increase in goods trade and a 7.2% increase in exports in the first half of the year [2] - Exports of electromechanical products grew by 9.5%, accounting for 60% of total exports, with high-end equipment exports increasing by over 20% [2] - The export of industrial robots surged by 61.5%, and green low-carbon products saw a 12.7% increase, indicating robust development in new quality productivity [2] Group 2: International Trade Dynamics - New quality productivity has become a "hardcore backing" for China in international economic and trade negotiations, with significant global competitiveness in key industries such as rare earths [3] - China holds 48.4% of global rare earth reserves and 68.5% of annual production, establishing a complete industrial chain from mining to deep processing [3] - The dependency of the U.S. and Japan on Chinese rare earths for critical industries highlights the strategic importance of new quality productivity in trade [3] Group 3: Trade Power Construction - Trade power construction is proactive in paving the way for the development of new quality productivity, facilitating a "technology-industry-trade" cycle [4] - The rapid growth of high-end equipment and green products in export data reflects global market demand for new quality productivity, which in turn stimulates R&D investments [4] - Trade interactions foster technological exchanges and cooperation opportunities, enhancing the flow of innovative elements and supporting the development of new quality productivity [4] Group 4: Industrial Upgrading and Global Integration - The development of new quality productivity relies on trade platforms to achieve "scale leap," integrating global resources and embedding domestic industries into high-end global value chains [5] - China's transition from a resource advantage to a technology advantage in the rare earth industry exemplifies the role of international trade in expanding market demand and driving technological upgrades [5] - The enhancement of rule-making power through increased trade influence supports the "safe development" of new quality productivity, creating a stable environment for technological innovation and industry protection [5] Group 5: Strategic Integration - The mutual empowerment of trade power and new quality productivity is a strategic choice for China to respond to challenges and seize opportunities in the restructured global economic landscape [6] - New quality productivity provides core momentum and discourse power for trade power construction, while trade power construction expands market space and improves the industrial ecosystem for new quality productivity [6]

Industry Overview - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a 6.96% increase last week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 5.73 percentage points [4] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E ratio) rose to 90.57x, currently at 95.7% of its historical percentile [4] Price Trends - Last week, rare earth concentrate prices generally declined, with praseodymium-neodymium prices dropping and dysprosium and terbium oxide averages being adjusted downwards [5] - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate, Sichuan fluorocarbon cerium ore, and Shandong fluorocarbon cerium ore prices fell by 2.94%, 3.33%, and 4% respectively [5] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 1.88%, while the metal price fell by 0.47% [5] - Dysprosium oxide prices decreased by 1.52%, and terbium oxide prices fell by 1.26% [5] - The price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron (N35) dropped by 0.77%, and H35 decreased by 0.51% due to insufficient cost support [5] Investment Insights - In the rare earth sector, praseodymium-neodymium product supply remains tight in the short term, with a decrease in imported ore quantities and a decline in production in July [7] - Demand for neodymium-iron-boron from major manufacturers remains stable, with new orders being acceptable and inventory levels low [7] - Despite a short-term decline in raw material prices, the market sentiment is not overly pessimistic, indicating limited downside potential for prices [7] - The demand from the downstream electric vehicle sector is expected to slow, while the wind power installation shows potential for release [7] - The overall industry capacity is excessive, with low operating rates, leading to a favorable position for leading companies [7] Valuation and Performance - Recent rapid price increases in the industry have pushed valuations to high levels, with the need for sustained performance improvements to support these valuations [7] - The upward trend in rare earth magnetic material prices and industry profitability is highly dependent on supply-demand improvements and policy expectations [7] Recommendations - Maintain an "overweight" rating for the industry, focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply expectations and potential demand increases due to relaxed export controls [8] - From a medium to long-term perspective, as rare earth prices gradually recover, downstream magnetic material companies are expected to see continued profit recovery [8] - Attention is recommended for companies with strong customer structures, full capacity utilization, and new growth opportunities, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has shown strong performance this week, with a price increase of 6.96%, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 5.73 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has increased to 90.57x, which is at 95.7% of its historical percentile [5][12] - Despite a general price decline in rare earth concentrates, the supply of praseodymium and neodymium products remains tight in the short term, with a decrease in import quantities [10][42] - The demand side shows a favorable outlook for the third quarter, with expectations of increased orders for praseodymium and neodymium [10][42] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past month, three months, and twelve months, with relative returns of 30%, 39%, and 94% respectively [4] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 32%, 45%, and 117% [4] Price Trends - This week, the prices of rare earth concentrates have generally declined, with specific decreases of 2.94%, 3.33%, and 4% for various domestic rare earth minerals [9][14] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium has decreased by 1.88% and 0.47% respectively [15][17] - The average price of dysprosium and terbium oxides has also seen a decline, with dysprosium down by 1.52% and terbium down by 1.26% [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies due to expectations of supply tightening and potential demand increases from relaxed export controls [10][43] - It is recommended to pay attention to downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [10][44]

Summary of Rare Earth Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The rare earth industry is characterized by uneven resource distribution in China, with light rare earths primarily in the north and heavy rare earths in the south [1][2] - China holds 38% of global rare earth reserves, with a total quota of 270,000 tons for 2024, including 250,000 tons of light rare earths (up 6.36% year-on-year) and 20,000 tons of heavy rare earths (unchanged from last year) [1][5] - The U.S. has abundant rare earth reserves but faces challenges with outdated separation technology and high costs [1][10] Key Players - **MP Company**: Received $400 million investment from the U.S. Department of Defense to expand production to 10,000 tons, but short-term impact on the Chinese market is limited [1][10][12] - **Lynas Corporation**: Actively expanding operations in Australia, with plans to produce over 10,000 tons of rare earth oxides in 2024 and establish a separation plant in Texas [1][13] - **Northern Rare Earth**: Leading in light rare earth production, with a significant share of the 2024 mining quota [1][24] - **China Rare Earth**: Dominates the heavy rare earth sector, with a total production of approximately 7,000 tons in 2024 [1][25] - **Shenghe Resources**: Achieved overseas resource supply and product development through acquisitions [1][26] Market Dynamics - China manages the rare earth market through total supply control, black market crackdowns, and export regulations [1][15] - The rare earth permanent magnet market is expected to grow significantly due to increasing demand from electric vehicles, wind power, and consumer electronics [1][17][23] - The price of light rare earth oxides has risen to 520,000 yuan per ton, accepted across the industry but still lower than previous cycles [1][16] Production and Supply Chain - China is the largest producer of rare earth permanent magnets, with major companies like Jinchuan and Ningbo Yunsheng contributing significantly to production [1][19][28] - The production process for rare earth permanent magnets involves complex powder metallurgy techniques, requiring strict safety controls [1][18] Risks and Challenges - The industry faces risks from policy changes affecting supply and pricing, U.S.-China trade tensions, and macroeconomic fluctuations impacting demand [1][36][37] - The potential for supply concentration and the impact of external factors on the industry need to be closely monitored [1][37] Conclusion - The rare earth industry is poised for growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand across various sectors, but it must navigate significant risks and challenges to maintain its trajectory [1][36]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][47] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a significant decline of 6.63% last week, underperforming the benchmark by 4.88 percentage points [5][12] - The valuation of the industry (TTM P/E) has decreased by 6 times to 84.89, currently at 94.3% of its historical percentile [5][12] - The prices of rare earth concentrates continue to rise, with significant increases in light rare earth minerals, while praseodymium and neodymium prices are also on an upward trend [6][9][19] - Demand remains stable, with expectations of increased orders in the third quarter, while supply is expected to tighten due to reduced imports and high waste material prices [10][46] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a relative return of 22% over the past month, 37% over three months, and 79% over the past year, with absolute returns of 24%, 45%, and 98% respectively [4] Price Trends - Prices for domestic mixed carbonate rare earth minerals and specific rare earth mines have increased significantly, with increases of 9.68%, 11.11%, and 13.64% for various mines [9][14] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 3.31% and 3.55% respectively, indicating a strong market outlook [19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply remains tight due to reduced imports and high prices for waste materials, while demand is expected to increase with the easing of export controls [10][46] - The overall market sentiment is bullish, with expectations for continued price increases in the near future [10][46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply and increased demand due to relaxed export controls [10][48] - Long-term prospects for downstream magnetic material companies are positive, particularly for those with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities [10][48]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Lithium and Rare Earth Industry**: The conference call primarily discusses the lithium and rare earth sectors, focusing on supply dynamics, pricing trends, and government regulations affecting these industries [1][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Tightening in Lithium**: The verification report for lithium reserves in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, may lead to some companies being unable to renew mining licenses on time, potentially affecting lithium carbonate production by approximately 20,000 tons per month, which could drive prices up [1][4]. - **Impact of Qinghai Salt Lake Production**: Companies in Qinghai are less affected by the recent regulatory changes, but there are concerns about overproduction and illegal mining practices that could pose risks to lithium supply [1][5]. - **Government Regulation Intent**: The government aims to optimize the lithium industry by eliminating loss-making capacities and better understanding national strategic metal reserves, which has contributed to a rebound in lithium prices from low levels [1][6]. - **Rare Earth Supply-Demand Shift**: Initially, there was an oversupply of rare earths in May, but a shift to a supply deficit is expected in Q3, which is likely to significantly boost prices, with prices for products like gadolinium oxide nearing 500,000 yuan per ton [1][9]. - **Geopolitical Factors Enhancing Rare Earth Value**: The U.S.-China trade tensions have led to a reassessment of the strategic value of rare earths, with China limiting exports and the U.S. supporting local industries, thus enhancing the valuation of the rare earth sector [1][10]. - **Market Sentiment in Rare Earths**: The auction of gadolinium and niobium metals on the Baotou exchange has led to a price increase, reflecting heightened market activity and confidence, with bullish sentiment prevailing [1][12]. Additional Important Content - **Current Lithium Companies to Watch**: Companies such as Zhongmin Resources, Shengxing Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yongxing Materials are highlighted for their stable stock performance and future growth potential [1][7]. - **Rare Earth Market Trends**: The rare earth market has shown significant improvement, with a tightening supply situation compared to the previous year, leading to a positive price outlook [1][9][13]. - **Investment Opportunities in Rare Earths**: The rare earth magnetic materials sector is recommended for investment, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth being noted for their potential [1][15][17]. - **Precious Metals Market Outlook**: The precious metals market, particularly silver and gold, is viewed optimistically due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with silver showing strong performance due to its dual financial and industrial attributes [2][16][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the lithium and rare earth industries, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.

Group 1 - Australia has announced successful mass production of dysprosium oxide, leading to excitement in Western media and concerns in China about potential talent loss [1][12] - The foundation of China's rare earth technology is attributed to decades of hard work, particularly the contributions of Xu Guangxian, who developed the rare earth separation theory [3][5] - China's rare earth industry has transformed from a resource-rich country to a major producer and exporter, supported by a comprehensive talent cultivation system [16][18] Group 2 - The technological breakthrough claimed by Australia's Lynas Corporation is seen as largely symbolic, with significant gaps remaining between laboratory success and large-scale industrial production [9][33] - China's rare earth industry benefits from a highly integrated supply chain, contrasting with Australia's segmented production process, which poses risks to supply stability [24][21] - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to surge due to the growth of downstream industries like electric vehicles, with projections indicating a significant increase in production capacity among leading Chinese companies [26][28] Group 3 - China's recent export controls on certain rare earth elements are part of a strategy to protect domestic resources and redefine global trade rules [28][31] - The competitive landscape of the global rare earth industry is shifting, with other countries, including the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, investing in their own rare earth supply chains [30][31] - China's advantages in the rare earth sector are systemic, encompassing talent development and effective policy tools, making it difficult for other nations to replicate these strengths quickly [33][35]