稀土管控升级

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北交所策略专题报告:稀土管控全面升级,行业有望迎来长景气周期
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 13:44
Group 1 - The rare earth industry is undergoing comprehensive regulatory upgrades, signaling a new phase of development with the potential for a long-term prosperity cycle [3][11][12] - As of August 29, 2025, the domestic rare earth price index reached 225.1, reflecting a 37.4% increase since the beginning of the year [3][11] - The introduction of the "Interim Measures for Total Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Natural Resources marks a significant upgrade in regulatory oversight [3][11][12] Group 2 - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange experienced a weekly decline of 2.46% from August 25 to August 29, 2025 [4][22][23] - Among the sub-sectors, only battery materials and non-metallic materials saw increases, with weekly growth rates of +6.88% and +0.80%, respectively [4][24][27] - The overall performance of the North Exchange's five major industries was weak, with the chemical new materials sector being one of the hardest hit [4][23] Group 3 - Jiexian Co. reported a 9.50% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, amounting to 266.35 million yuan, and a 67.60% drop in net profit to 5.74 million yuan [5][57] - Bettery Co. benefited from the growth in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets, achieving a revenue of 7.838 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.36% [5][57] - The sales volume of negative electrode materials exceeded 260,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.83% [5][57]
稀土:《开采分离管理暂行办法》发布,稀土管控全面提级
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-24 10:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the rare earth sector, including Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Jinkeli Permanent Magnet, and Zhongke Sanhuan [4][6]. Core Insights - The release of the "Interim Measures for the Management of Rare Earth Mining and Separation" signifies a comprehensive upgrade in the regulatory framework for rare earths, enhancing the strategic metal attributes of the sector [3]. - The new regulations will likely tighten supply due to dual pressures of "mineral shortage" and "quota shortage," which is expected to elevate the price center of rare earths [3]. - The stricter qualification requirements for rare earth producers are anticipated to increase industry concentration, benefiting leading companies' profitability [3]. - The demand for rare earths is projected to rise due to applications in electric vehicles, low-altitude flying vehicles, and robotics, further emphasizing the scarcity of resources and potential price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The new regulations involve joint management by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Natural Resources, requiring annual plans to be approved by the State Council [2]. - The scope of regulation has expanded to include imported ores and by-product ores, necessitating traceability systems for rare earth products [2]. Market Dynamics - The anticipated tightening of supply is expected to improve corporate earnings from an EPS perspective, driving upward momentum in equity valuations [3]. - By 2024, China is projected to account for nearly 70% of global rare earth supply, leading to systematic downward adjustments in market expectations for supply release growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the full industry chain from mining to separation and deep processing in China, which allows for better control over product pricing [4]. - Key stocks to watch include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Jinkeli Permanent Magnet, and Zhongke Sanhuan, with expected EPS growth from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.83 in 2027 for Jinkeli Permanent Magnet [6].