建议关注：山东黄金、山金国际、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金等。 工业金属： 2025 年 10 月 12 日 有色金属 稀土管制升级，避险情绪升温 国庆期间，美国政府停摆、美联储进一步降息预期等因素推动贵金属 （金银）、工业金属（铜锡铝等）价格迎来普涨。近日商务部连发 4 则稀土公告，从"资源管控"转向"技术+供应链双管控";美国特朗普 称将对中国进口商品加征 100%关税，短期宏观政策扰动较大，市场 可能高波震动。我们认为，短期可重点关注稀土的战略属性、黄金的 避险属性，中长期持续关注基本面向好的铜铝锡钴钽等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 3986.2、47.4 美元/盎司,环比分别 +3.6%、+3.0%。10 月 1 日起，美国政府时隔 7 年再度停摆，一方面 部分非农就业、CPI 等数据延迟发布，一方面影响美国政府信用水平。 特朗普再度推出多项关税政策，推升市场避险情绪。政策不确定性等 利多因素有望持续，看好金价续创新高。白银被提议列入美国 USGS 关键矿产清单，伦敦银现货市场供应紧张，周中价格一度创历史新高， 持续看好白银价格弹性。。 zhougy@essence.com.c ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the rare earth sector, including Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Jinkeli Permanent Magnet, and Zhongke Sanhuan [4][6]. Core Insights - The release of the "Interim Measures for the Management of Rare Earth Mining and Separation" signifies a comprehensive upgrade in the regulatory framework for rare earths, enhancing the strategic metal attributes of the sector [3]. - The new regulations will likely tighten supply due to dual pressures of "mineral shortage" and "quota shortage," which is expected to elevate the price center of rare earths [3]. - The stricter qualification requirements for rare earth producers are anticipated to increase industry concentration, benefiting leading companies' profitability [3]. - The demand for rare earths is projected to rise due to applications in electric vehicles, low-altitude flying vehicles, and robotics, further emphasizing the scarcity of resources and potential price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The new regulations involve joint management by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Natural Resources, requiring annual plans to be approved by the State Council [2]. - The scope of regulation has expanded to include imported ores and by-product ores, necessitating traceability systems for rare earth products [2]. Market Dynamics - The anticipated tightening of supply is expected to improve corporate earnings from an EPS perspective, driving upward momentum in equity valuations [3]. - By 2024, China is projected to account for nearly 70% of global rare earth supply, leading to systematic downward adjustments in market expectations for supply release growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the full industry chain from mining to separation and deep processing in China, which allows for better control over product pricing [4]. - Key stocks to watch include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Jinkeli Permanent Magnet, and Zhongke Sanhuan, with expected EPS growth from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.83 in 2027 for Jinkeli Permanent Magnet [6].