该行估算首三季新业务价值(VNB)将同比增36%，相较上半年增幅为20%，反映第三季增长势头强劲。 股息方面，虽然预期全年税后净利润将表现强劲，但该行认为股息不会以同等幅度增长，因集团目标股 息稳定增长。假设股息提高10%至30%，H股股息收益率将达3.4%至4%。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，中国人寿(02628)发盈喜，料今年首三季税后净利润将同比升50% 至70%，达1,570亿至1,780亿元人民币，远高于市场预期;其中第三季税后净利润同比升75%至106%，主 要因投资收入大幅增长及保险服务业务复苏推动。基于盈喜、资产管理规模扩大及利率上升，该行将国 寿2025至2027年税后净利润预测分别上调79%、23%及24%;瑞银将国寿目标价由27.4港元升至29港元， 维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Life Insurance expects a significant increase in after-tax net profit for the first three quarters of the year, projecting a year-on-year rise of 50% to 70%, reaching between 157 billion to 178 billion yuan, which is well above market expectations [1] Financial Performance - The after-tax net profit for the third quarter is anticipated to increase by 75% to 106% year-on-year, primarily driven by substantial growth in investment income and a recovery in insurance service operations [1] - The estimated new business value (VNB) for the first three quarters is expected to rise by 36% year-on-year, compared to a 20% increase in the first half of the year, indicating strong growth momentum in the third quarter [1] Dividend Expectations - Despite the strong anticipated performance in after-tax net profit for the year, it is believed that dividends will not increase at the same rate, as the group's goal is stable dividend growth [1] - Assuming a dividend increase of 10% to 30%, the H-share dividend yield is projected to reach between 3.4% to 4% [1] Target Price Adjustment - Based on the earnings forecast, expansion of asset management scale, and rising interest rates, the profit forecasts for after-tax net profit for 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 79%, 23%, and 24% respectively [1] - The target price for China Life Insurance has been adjusted from 27.4 HKD to 29 HKD, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Pacific Insurance (02328) outperformed market expectations in the first half of the year, driven by a 45% year-on-year surge in underwriting profit and a 27% increase in total investment income [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit after tax (NPAT) forecast for China Pacific Insurance has been raised by UBS by 4% for 2025, reflecting better-than-expected combined cost ratios and improved market sentiment [1] - Total premium income is projected to grow by 4.5%, with motor insurance and non-motor insurance premiums expected to increase by 3.5% and 5.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Valuation and Target Price - UBS has raised the target price for China Pacific Insurance from HKD 18.7 to HKD 20.7, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to favorable macro conditions and policy tailwinds [1] - The estimated combined cost ratios for motor and non-motor insurance are targeted to be below 96% and approximately 99% respectively [1] Group 3: Investment Income Outlook - UBS anticipates a slowdown in growth momentum for investment income in the third quarter, aligning with industry trends due to high equity return benchmarks and rising interest rates potentially lowering bond fair values [1] - Despite the anticipated slowdown, UBS believes that China Pacific Insurance will face less profit pressure compared to peers due to its smaller fair value exposure to equities and lower investment leverage [1]