中新社柏林1月6日电(杨楚瑜 马秀秀)德国联邦统计局6日公布的初步数据显示，2025年12月德国通胀率 为1.8%，为一年多以来最低水平。 数据显示，2025年10月和11月德国通胀率均为2.3%。2025年全年德国平均通胀率预计为2.2%。 服务价格上涨是推动2025年12月通胀的主要因素。当月，德国服务价格同比上涨3.5%，其中价格上涨 较为明显的是汽车保险、度假套餐旅行以及理发和餐饮消费等服务项目。当月能源价格则同比明显下降 1.3%，食品价格同比上涨0.8%。剔除食品和能源价格因素，德国当月核心通胀率预计为2.4%。 根据德国伊弗经济研究所预测，2026年德国通胀率可能为2.2%，2027年约为2.3%。德国基尔世界经济 研究所则预计，2026年德国通胀率将回落至1.8%。消费者有望从取消天然气附加费以及降低电网使用 费等措施中受益。 德媒称，欧洲中央银行的中期目标是将通胀率维持在2%。按照欧洲标准计算，德国2025年12月的通胀 率恰好为2.0%。由于整体价格压力有所缓解，欧洲央行自2024年年中至2025年年中已八次下调基准利 率，目前利率为2.0%。多数专家预计，欧洲央行在未来几个月内将维持现有 ...

作者：格雷格・亚库尔奇 核心要点 民众支付能力问题已成为消费者与政界人士最关注的头等大事。 即便通胀率已从 2022 年的峰值回落，住房、食品、电力等民生商品的价格，自新冠疫情前就已大幅上 涨。多项调查显示，高物价与高昂的生活成本让消费者的心态愈发悲观。专家表示，民主党近期在纽约 市、新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州的选举中胜出，核心原因便是紧抓民生支付能力这一议题造势。 2025 年 12 月 12 日，美 国纽约市布鲁克林区，民众在一家超市采购商品。11 月美国消费者信心指数跌至 4 月以来新低，美国 民众对就业、生活成本及整体经济的担忧日益加剧；当前通胀率维持在 3%，仍高于美联储设定的 2% 目标值。 近几个月来，日常商品与服务的价格持续走高，民生支付能力不足不仅成为美国家庭的心头之怨，也成 了政坛热议的核心议题。 "民众正为支付能力问题怨声载道。" 耶鲁大学财政预算实验室执行董事兼联合创始人玛莎・金贝尔表 示，"显而易见，这一问题已经成了政坛的矛盾引爆点。" 以年度消费者物价指数（CPI）衡量，美国通胀率已从 2022 年的峰值回落 —— 彼时通胀率飙升至 9.1%，创下约 40 年新高；2025 年 11 月 ...

Core Insights - PAO Bank Limited has announced a more than 100% year-on-year growth in total assets as of November, supported by a capital injection of HKD 500 million from Lufax Holding Ltd, reinforcing its capital strength [1] - The bank aims to enhance its technological capabilities and upgrade personal banking services, positioning itself as a comprehensive financial platform under the Ping An Group in Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - PAO Bank's total assets have exceeded a 100% increase year-on-year, indicating significant business expansion [1] - Lufax Holding has invested a total of HKD 700 million in PAO Bank in 2025, demonstrating strong support for the bank's development [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The bank is focused on becoming a "user-friendly digital wealth management bank," aiming to provide a one-stop wealth management experience [1] - PAO Bank has recently announced the launch of its insurance business, becoming the first digital bank in Hong Kong to offer comprehensive online and offline insurance services [1] Group 3: Service Innovation - The bank is integrating banking and insurance advantages to create an insurance and wealth management ecosystem, allowing customers to enjoy comprehensive protection alongside banking services [1] - The insurance offerings include various products such as auto, travel, and home insurance, with a fully paperless process for customer convenience [1]

过去一年，PAObank不断提升个人银行服务，并创下多项重要里程碑。截至今年11月底，本行总资产按 年增长超过100%，业务规模大幅扩展。继今年3月正式进军保险业务，PAObank亦宣布成为香港首间数 字银行提供在线及线下全方位保险服务，无论汽车保险、旅游保险和家居保险等一般保险产品，更将保 险产品升级至涵盖多元化人寿保障及储蓄保险计划，全程无纸化流程，让客户在弹指之间即可投保，享 受更便捷、无缝且安全的保障。作为中国平安的成员公司，PAObank积极融合银行和保险优势；并逐步 打造保险理财生态圈，让客户于享受银行服务的同时，亦可兼享全方位保障，成为具有保险DNA的数 字银行。 2025年12月22日，香港 – PAO Bank Limited(「PAObank」)宣布，随着业务不断扩大，银行今年总资产 按年录得逾一倍增长，并再度获陆金所控股有限公司(陆控)(06623.HK, NYSE LU)增资5亿港元，进一步 巩固资本实力。PAObank将继续强化科技实力，全方位升级个人银行业务，以「好用的理财数字银行」 为目标，带来一站式理财体验，成为平安集团在港的综合金融平台之一。 连同早前增资，陆控于2025年向 ...

在降息预期反复、通胀路径再度分歧之际，美国市场迎来2025年最后一份重磅宏观数据。 当地时间周四（北京时间晚九点半），美国劳工统计局（BLS）将公布11月CPI数据。由于10月CPI已被 取消，BLS已明确：本次报告将无法给出11月环比数据。 分析师普遍预期11月CPI同比涨幅将扩大至3.1%（略高于9月份的3.0%），核心CPI年化预计维持在3.0% 的水平不变。Interactive Brokers高级经济学家José Torres表示，通胀读数落在"2%区间还是3%区间将至 关重要"，这一心理分水岭可能影响市场对美联储政策路径的预期。 这意味着，尽管表面年率可能"抬头"，但底层通胀动能仍在温和放缓。高盛关注的结构性线索包括： 汽车价格：二手车两个月平均上涨约0.5%，新车小幅回升 简而言之，若通胀重回2%区间，将明显提振风险偏好，并可能为美股年末"圣诞行情"打开空间；反 之，若站稳3%以上，则会强化"高利率更久"的叙事。 政府停摆导致数据异常，解读难度加大 由于缺少10月基准数据和数据收集时间受限，分析师警告这将不是一份"干净"的报告，可能增加解读难 度和市场波动性。 美国劳工统计局已明确表示，由于10 ...

Core Insights - The global insurance industry is entering a phase of slowed growth and profit pressure, moving away from a decade driven by scale [6][8] - External factors such as economic fluctuations and geopolitical tensions continue to impact traditional profit models, while climate change poses significant risks to property insurers [6][8] - The competitive landscape is shifting from a focus on licensing and scale to one centered around technology, capital, and service capabilities [8][35] Non-Life Insurance Sector - The non-life insurance sector is facing a new pressure phase after exiting a difficult underwriting cycle, with global premium growth expected to slow down [10] - The underwriting cost ratio in the U.S. is projected to rise from 97.2% in 2024 to 99% in 2026, further compressing profit margins [10] - Factors driving cost increases include tariffs, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and rising material prices, particularly affecting auto and property insurance [10][11] - Legal risks are increasing complexity in non-life insurance, with rising litigation financing leading to higher claims rates and severity [10] Life and Annuity Insurance - Life insurance premium growth is slowing in developed markets, while annuity sales in the U.S. are expected to reach $432.4 billion in 2024, continuing strong growth [13] - The asset management size in the insurance industry is projected to grow by 25% to $4.5 trillion by 2024, with personal credit becoming a larger share [14] - The integration of private equity into the insurance sector is accelerating, reflecting dual pressures on both asset and liability sides [15][16] Group Insurance Sector - The group insurance sector is evolving towards a tighter integration of employee benefits and insurance services, with new growth areas emerging [20] - The B2B2C model in group insurance emphasizes the importance of user experience for both employers and employees [21] - Digital access capabilities are becoming critical in group insurance competition, with companies needing to integrate products into employer benefit platforms [23] AI and Technology Integration - The report highlights that the main barrier to scaling AI in the insurance industry is not the algorithms but rather data quality and system infrastructure [26][29] - Successful AI applications are being implemented across various functions, such as underwriting and claims processing, enhancing efficiency and service delivery [30] - The future insurance workforce will need to focus on complex problem-solving and customer engagement rather than routine tasks [30] Customer Experience Transformation - Customer expectations are shifting towards speed, convenience, and personalization, necessitating a move from "omni-channel" to "channel adaptation" [33] - Insurers must provide seamless service experiences, with simple requests directed to self-service channels and complex inquiries handled by experienced professionals [33] - The overall competitive structure of the insurance industry is being redefined, with technology, capital flexibility, and customer-centric service systems becoming key competitive factors [35]

告别规模驱动的黄金十年，全球保险业正集体驶入一个增长放缓、利润承压的深水区。 过去几年影响保险业的外部力量并未消退，经济波动与地缘政治摩擦持续叠加，侵蚀着传统利差损益模式；气候变化带来的巨灾风险，直击财产险公司的 盈利底线。 与此同时，行业内部的边界不断被技术、渠道和资本重塑；科技公司、私募股权机构等"新玩家"携资本与技术优势入场，不断向保险领域渗透。 保险业的竞争范式正在发生根本性转移，从依赖牌照与渠道的规模博弈，转向围绕技术、资本与服务能力的深度变革。 12月3日，德勤发布《2026年全球保险业展望》报告，从非寿险、寿险与年金险、团险到AI技术、客户体验与税制变动等方面，系统展示了行业正在经历 的深层变革，勾勒出未来几年保险生态的演变路径。 其一，是非寿险领域，围绕技术与成本演变的"科技战"。 非寿险行业在走出承保难周期后，再度进入压力叠加阶段。全球非寿险保费增速在2026年预计继续放缓，美国市场的承保成本率将从2024年的97.2%上升 至2026年的99%，利润空间被进一步压缩。 推动成本上行的因素来自多个维度：关税上调、供应链中断、劳动力短缺和材料价格上涨，使汽车保险与家财险赔付成本持续攀升；贸易政 ...

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is entering the Hong Kong insurance market by obtaining an insurance brokerage license and starting recruitment for its subsidiary, JD Insurance Consultants (Hong Kong) Limited, with a focus on serving its mainland customers [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - JD Insurance Hong Kong has received its insurance brokerage license from the Hong Kong Insurance Authority, allowing it to operate from October 14, 2025, to October 13, 2028, and to offer various insurance products including life insurance and travel insurance [4][5]. - The company is primarily targeting JD Finance's mainland customers for its initial client base, aiming to redirect those interested in Hong Kong insurance to its services [8][9]. - JD Insurance Hong Kong is actively recruiting for various positions, with salaries ranging from 20,000 to 65,000 HKD per month, and is looking for candidates with relevant qualifications and experience in the Hong Kong insurance market [5][6]. Group 2: Market Context - The value of insurance licenses in Hong Kong is increasing, with more mainland visitors purchasing insurance in the region. JD.com joins Tencent and Alibaba in competing for market share in this sector [3][9]. - In 2024, Hong Kong's new insurance premium total reached 219.755 billion HKD, a 22% increase from 2023, with mainland visitors contributing 62.798 billion HKD, representing 29% of the total new premiums [9]. - The trend shows that 41% of high-net-worth individuals from mainland China consider Hong Kong their preferred destination for overseas investment in the next three years, indicating a growing interest in insurance products [9][10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The entry of JD.com into the Hong Kong insurance market marks the beginning of intensified competition among the three major mainland players: JD.com, Tencent, and Alibaba [11][13]. - Tencent has previously established a digital insurance business in Hong Kong through its investment in a local insurance company, while Alibaba has made significant moves by acquiring a life insurance company [11][12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - QuinStreet reported record revenue of $285.9 million for Q1 2026, with adjusted net income of $13.1 million, or $0.22 per share, and adjusted EBITDA of $20.5 million [10] - The company expects Q2 revenue to be between $270 million and $280 million, with adjusted EBITDA between $19 million and $20 million [9][12] - Full fiscal year 2026 revenue is projected to grow at least 10% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow at least 20% year over year [9][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The financial services client vertical accounted for 73% of Q1 revenue, declining 2% year over year to $207.5 million [10] - Auto insurance revenue grew 16% sequentially and 4% year over year, while non-insurance financial services declined 10% year over year [10] - Home services represented 27% of Q1 revenue, growing 15% year over year to a record $78.4 million [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand in auto insurance, with marketing budgets shifting towards digital and performance marketing [4] - There is uncertainty regarding tariffs impacting claims costs, which may delay expected increases in carrier marketing spend [5][22] - The total addressable market opportunity is estimated to be less than 10% penetrated, indicating significant growth potential [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - QuinStreet aims to achieve a 10% quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin in the current fiscal year, focusing on media optimization, higher margin products, and operational efficiency [6] - The company is investing in new media capacity and expanding its product and market footprint to drive growth and expand margins [5] - QuinStreet is also focusing on artificial intelligence to enhance consumer access and engagement, expecting it to accelerate growth in their markets [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued strong growth in auto insurance revenue and margins due to favorable market fundamentals [4] - The company anticipates a significant increase in carrier marketing spend once tariff uncertainties are resolved [22] - Management highlighted a broadening of spending among auto insurance carriers, with a record number of clients spending over $1 million per month [28] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors authorized a new $40 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term outlook [9] - QuinStreet has maintained a strong financial position with $101 million in cash and equivalents and no bank debt [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on media investments and performance - Management discussed scaling proprietary media campaigns in response to auto insurance demand, noting margins have improved and are expected to continue expanding [17][19] Question: Impact of tariffs on spending - Management clarified that while there are no new tariffs, existing ones are causing clients to be conservative in their spending, despite strong financial performance [20][22] Question: Spending trends among auto insurance carriers - Management observed a broadening of spending, with non-major players increasing their spend significantly, while larger players continue to spend strongly [26][28] Question: Changes in monetization of credit-driven verticals - Management noted that lower-end consumers are under pressure, but demand for credit and debt relief products remains healthy, particularly among upper-income consumers [33][34] Question: Activity in home services segment - Management reported robust demand for home services, indicating a healthy market with significant growth opportunities [36]

Core Insights - The average cost of auto insurance in the U.S. has risen significantly faster than general inflation over the past five years, raising concerns about homeowners insurance potentially following suit [1][5]. Regulation of Insurance Rates - Each U.S. state has its own regulations regarding insurance rate increases, with some requiring prior approval for rate hikes, while others allow limited increases without approval [3]. - Most states prohibit rate increases that are deemed "excessive, inadequate, or unfairly discriminatory" [3]. Rising Premiums - Homeowners insurance costs have surged in disaster-prone areas, with increases of 30% in some parts of Florida and 50% in Illinois over the last three years [5]. - Analysts predict a 21% rate increase in California following the Los Angeles wildfires [5]. Legislative Actions - States like Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, and New York are considering implementing price caps to protect residents from rising insurance costs [7]. - Specific legislative proposals include Illinois' SB0268, Louisiana's House Bill 148, and Michigan's SB 328 and SB 329, which aim to regulate rate increases and provide consumer protections [8]. Arguments for Price Caps - Proponents argue that price caps can provide immediate relief for consumers facing soaring insurance premiums [8]. - Regulatory oversight is seen as a way to keep insurance affordable for struggling Americans [8]. Arguments Against Price Caps - Critics warn that price caps could reduce competition and limit access to insurance, potentially leading insurers to exit states where they cannot charge sustainable premiums [9]. - The regulation is characterized as a "band-aid solution" that fails to address the underlying issue of increasing risk [9]. Market Trends - A survey indicated that over 15% of homeowners in high-risk states like California, Florida, New York, and Georgia have experienced policy cancellations due to insurers leaving the state [10]. - Stricter regulations could accelerate this trend, making it harder for high-risk customers to find insurance [11]. Risk Management Strategies - Homeowners are advised to manage their risk profiles by implementing preventive measures to reduce potential claims [12]. - Strategies include installing leak detection systems, conducting regular inspections, and maintaining safe driving habits for car insurance [12][18].