綦鲁明(中国国际经济交流中心) 在特朗普政府对外采取加征关税政策、对内实施激进债务扩张策略的推动下，美国财政收支面临新的不 平衡，给美国自身及全球经济带来诸多不良影响。我们应采取积极有效的措施，予以化解和应对。 美国财政收支结构失衡诱因仍在持续积累 根据美国财政部和国会预算办公室(CBO)的数据，2025财年(2024年10月~2025年9月)联邦财政收入5.2万 亿美元，支出7.01万亿美元，预算赤字约1.8万亿美元。这是美国连续第六年赤字超1万亿美元。 从支出情况看，支出主要发生在社会保障福利、医疗保险和医疗补助3项强制性支出项目上。其他支出 较多的项目是债务利息、国防军费开支，其中债务利息支出突破万亿美元。 总体看，当前美国提高财政收入渠道仍然缺乏。关税收入虽有较大规模增长，但远不能覆盖其债务利息 支出，对缓解庞大债务压力的作用更是微乎其微。从中长期看，加征关税还会导致美国进口量下降，关 税实际收入可能不及预期，对财政的支持难以保证。同时，美国财政支出持续增长，特别是强制性支出 项目与债务利息支出规模将持续攀升。因此，美国财政收支失衡状况仍十分严重、难见好转。 美国财政收支风险带来诸多负面影响 当前美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a unified national market requires the regulation of local investment attraction behaviors and the elimination of local protectionism, with tax incentive policies being a key measure to break local protectionism [2][4][5]. Tax Competition Indicators - Two tax competition indicators have been established: the provincial tax competition index, which indicates the intensity of tax competition and the attractiveness of tax policies to enterprises, and the tax refund rate for listed companies in each province, which measures the proportion of tax exemptions for listed companies [6][7][8]. - The current tax competition index is close to its highest value in the past 30 years, reflecting the necessity of a unified national market [7][23]. Four Types of Competition Models - The 31 provinces can be categorized into four competition models based on the tax competition index and the tax refund rate for listed companies: 1. **Free Type**: Low tax competition index and low refund rate (e.g., Beijing, Tianjin) indicating minimal local protectionism [15]. 2. **Strong Type**: Low tax competition index and high refund rate (e.g., Jiangxi, Zhejiang) focusing on attracting large enterprises [15]. 3. **Depressed Type**: High tax competition index and low refund rate (e.g., Henan, Jilin) indicating high overall tax policy attractiveness but low emphasis on listed companies [15]. 4. **Preferential Type**: High tax competition index and high refund rate (e.g., Hunan, Shandong) indicating the highest local protectionism and urgent need for a unified market [15]. Tax Competition Index Analysis - The tax competition index has been rising since 2010, with a projected average of 0.88 for 2024, nearing the maximum value of 0.9 observed in the past 30 years [23][24]. - The highest tax competition indices are found in Central and Northeast China, while the lowest are in South and North China [24]. Tax Refund Rate for Listed Companies - The national tax refund rate for listed companies has been around 5% to 10% over the past 30 years, with a significant increase to 15% in 2024, reflecting a higher level of tax relief compared to historical averages [28][29]. - The highest tax refund rates for listed companies are observed in Jiangxi (38.2%), Zhejiang (36.7%), and Hunan (35.6%), while the lowest are in Shanxi (1.6%) and Guizhou (2.4%) [29].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The central government emphasizes the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, addressing local protectionism as a significant barrier to this goal[2] - Tax competition among local governments is a key factor contributing to local protectionism, with tax incentives being a primary tool for attracting investment[2][3] - The current tax competition index is close to its highest level in the past 30 years, indicating the urgency for a unified market[3][14] Group 2: Tax Competition Indicators - Two tax competition indicators are constructed: the provincial tax competition index and the tax refund rate for listed companies, which reflect local protection tendencies[3][11] - The provincial tax competition index averages 0.88 in 2024, nearing the historical maximum of 0.9, with significant regional variations[6][26] - The highest tax competition index is found in Hunan (1.83), while the lowest is in Shanghai (0.22) and Beijing (0.24)[7][26] Group 3: Tax Refund Rates - The national tax refund rate for listed companies reached 15% in 2024, significantly above the long-term average of 5%-10%[8][32] - Jiangxi has the highest tax refund rate at 38.2%, while Shanxi has the lowest at 1.6%[9][32] - Regional disparities exist, with East China and South China showing the highest tax refund rates, while Northwest and North China exhibit the lowest[9][32]

Group 1 - The German government has approved a €46 billion corporate tax reduction plan aimed at revitalizing the economy through tax incentives and measures to enhance international competitiveness and stimulate corporate investment [1][5] - The plan includes three core measures: accelerated depreciation for movable assets, a gradual reduction of corporate income tax from 15% to 10% by 2028, and increased R&D subsidies for large and small enterprises [2][5] - The tax reduction is expected to significantly benefit sectors such as manufacturing, automotive, and technology, providing immediate cash flow support and encouraging investment in automation and green technologies [2][3] Group 2 - The German economy is projected to experience zero growth in 2025, with the current economic cycle showing signs of weakness, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and domestic fiscal stimulus measures [1][3] - The tax reduction plan is part of a broader fiscal reform that includes a €500 billion infrastructure fund aimed at various sectors, marking a shift from strict fiscal conservatism to a more flexible fiscal policy [1][2] - The implementation of the tax reduction plan may face challenges, including potential pressure on fiscal revenues, uncertainty in parliamentary approval, and external trade tensions that could undermine its effectiveness [3][4][5]