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废铝偏紧给予支撑,关注税返退坡情况
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-24 08:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week (08/18 - 08/22), the re - cast aluminum alloy ingot fluctuated strongly. The closing price of AD2511 increased by 0.05% to 20,175 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 20,000 yuan/ton. The production cost of Fubao ADC12 increased by 121.4 yuan/ton to 19,832.8 yuan/ton, and the profit narrowed by 21.5 yuan/ton to 167.1 yuan/ton [2][13] - The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the price remains high. There are rumors of tax - refund cancellation policies in some regions, and the scrap aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of ADC12 is relatively strong, and the industry's comprehensive operating rate has slightly declined. The demand side has not improved significantly, but the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching [3] - Considering the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the decline in the raw material inventory of some alloy ingot factories, the cost support is strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and short on AL2511 [4][22] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Scrap aluminum arrival is scarce, and continuously monitor the implementation of the tax - refund cancellation policy - The re - cast aluminum alloy ingot fluctuated strongly last week. The prices of some scrap aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, while the FOB price of Malaysian scrap aluminum increased by 5 US dollars/ton to 2,165 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao ADC12 increased, and the profit narrowed [13][14] - The scrap aluminum market supply is tight, and the price is high. There are rumors of tax - refund cancellation policies in Anhui and Jiangxi. The scrap aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the game between scrap aluminum holders and recycled aluminum plants. The inventory of scrap aluminum has slightly accumulated, but it is difficult to continue to accumulate. The demand for imported raw materials is expected to increase [16][18] - The price of ADC12 is relatively strong. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy is stronger than that of electrolytic aluminum. There are regional production stoppages and suspension of shipments in Anhui and Jiangxi, and the industry's comprehensive operating rate has slightly declined. The demand side has not improved significantly, but the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching, and the price of aluminum alloy ingots is likely to rise [19] 2. Review of industry news during the week - Four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice to regulate investment - promotion behaviors, requiring the rectification of illegal fiscal returns and subsidies in local investment - promotion [23] - The US government announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products, and the new tariff list took effect on August 18 [23] 3. Monitoring of key high - frequency data in the industrial chain 3.1 Scrap aluminum: Tight arrival, slight inventory accumulation - The monthly production and shipment volume data of Chinese scrap aluminum in recent years are presented, showing the overall production and shipment trends. The weekly procurement volume of scrap aluminum traders and the inventory and arrival retention of scrap aluminum traders are also monitored. The monthly scrap aluminum inventory of cast aluminum alloy factories shows that some alloy ingot factories' raw material inventory has decreased [26][27][33] - The price trend of Foshan crushed raw aluminum and the refined - scrap price difference are monitored, indicating that the price of scrap aluminum is relatively strong compared to primary aluminum [34] 3.2 ADC12: Strong price, high social inventory - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy futures main contract, the term structure of SHFE cast aluminum alloy, the basis of Baotai ADC12, and the sales price of Baotai ADC12 are monitored. The price of ADC12 is relatively strong, and the profit of production has slightly narrowed [35][37][38] - The price difference between ADC12 and A00 in Foshan, the production and operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of leading recycled aluminum casting enterprises, the social inventory and in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots, and the daily production profit of recycled aluminum alloy and the instant profit of imported ADC12 are monitored [42][46][47] 3.3 Downstream: The operating rate of semi - steel tires has recovered, and pay attention to the realization of peak - season demand - The monthly consumption of recycled aluminum casting, the production of Chinese automobiles, new - energy vehicles, and fuel vehicles, the automobile inventory warning index, the production of Chinese motorcycles, and the operating rates of Chinese semi - steel tires and all - steel tires are monitored. The operating rate of semi - steel tires has recovered, and the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching [56][58][65]
废铝偏紧给予支撑,警惕税返退坡风险
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 09:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the foundry aluminum alloy industry is "Bullish" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scarcity of scrap aluminum resources and the expected increase in demand for ticketed resources and imported raw materials provide strong support for the price of ADC12. Considering the expected production cuts due to policies and the strong market sentiment for long - positions, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. Additionally, an arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and short on AL2511 when the spread is below - 500 can be considered [2][15][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival is Scarce, Beware of the Risk of Tax Rebate Decline - Last week (08/11 - 08/15), the price of recycled cast aluminum alloy ingots fluctuated strongly. The closing price of AD2511 increased by 0.3% to 20,165 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 19,900 yuan/ton. The cost side was strongly supported, and the profit margin widened [12] - The prices of different scrap aluminum varieties showed mixed trends this week. The factors affecting the fundamentals of scrap aluminum include the cooling of the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the high inflation data in the US, the slowdown of order - taking by spot - futures traders and traditional traders, and the reduction or suspension of production by some enterprises, which suppresses the upward movement of scrap aluminum prices [13] - The raw material inventory in national alloy ingot factories and the social inventory of scrap aluminum have both increased marginally. However, due to the high price of scrap aluminum, aluminum enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness. The arrival of scrap aluminum has decreased, and it is expected that the inventory at the scrap aluminum end will not continue to accumulate. The demand for ticketed resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase significantly, which may widen the procurement price difference between East and South China [14][15] - The 2025 (770) document requires the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies in local government investment promotion. The cancellation of tax rebates and the investigation of reverse - invoicing will significantly increase enterprise production costs, and there may be a transfer of production capacity in tax - preferential areas. It is expected that the spot supply of aluminum alloy will tighten significantly, which is negative for scrap aluminum prices [16] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries jointly issued a notice to rectify illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies in local government investment promotion, including the full - scale inspection and abolition of relevant policies, the immediate suspension of illegal clauses in existing projects, and the prohibition of various illegal operations. For some specific violations, a transition period can be set, with the latest exit deadline of August 2027 [21] - The US government announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products. The expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18 [21] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Tight Arrival and Slight Inventory Accumulation - The report provides multiple data charts on scrap aluminum, including monthly production, monthly shipments, weekly procurement volume of traders, regional production, inventory of traders and foundry aluminum alloy factories, price trends, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum, reflecting the current situation of tight arrival and slight inventory accumulation of scrap aluminum [23][25][27] 3.2 ADC12: Strong Price and High Social Inventory - The report presents data on the closing price of the main contract of foundry aluminum alloy, term structure, basis, sales price, price difference with A00 aluminum, production and operation rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, social and in - factory inventory, and production and import profits, indicating that the price of ADC12 is strong and the social inventory is high [35][38][40] 3.3 Downstream: Weakening Start - up of Semi - Steel Tires and the Automobile Industry Still in the Off - season - The report uses data on the monthly consumption of recycled cast aluminum, automobile production (including new energy and fuel vehicles), motorcycle production, inventory warning index, and start - up rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires to show that the start - up of semi - steel tires is weakening and the automobile industry is still in the off - season [59][60][62]