1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals, news, and trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon, providing data on prices, volumes, inventories, and other indicators [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Industrial silicon Si2511: The closing price was 8,950 yuan/ton, down 355 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 586,687 lots, up 76,381 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 285,490 lots, down 25,607 lots from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon PS2511: The closing price was 50,990 yuan/ton, down 1,710 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 253,135 lots, down 76,477 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 123,917 lots, up 8,068 lots from T - 1 [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium against East China Si5530 was +445 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from T - 1; against East China Si4210 was -105 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from T - 1; against Xinjiang 99 silicon was -105 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - investment material was -1105 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.1.3 Price - Industrial silicon: Xinjiang 99 silicon was 9000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from T - 1; Yunnan Si4210 was 9950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: N - type re - investment material was 52600 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was -2366 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from T - 1; in Yunnan (new standard 553) was -3311 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was -14.1 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.3 tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 17.5 tons, and the industry inventory was 71.8 tons [1] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 21.9 tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - Industrial silicon: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5; in Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5 [1] - Other raw materials: The prices of washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. also had corresponding changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In August, China's exports of photovoltaic cells not installed in modules or assembled into blocks were about 143477 million, a month - on - month increase of 37767.7 million (35.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 75696.1 million (111.7%) [1][3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was 1. The range of trend strength is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamental outlook for industrial silicon has improved, while the short - term market sentiment for polysilicon has cooled down [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 9,305 yuan/ton, with a volume of 510,306 lots and an open interest of 311,097 lots. PS2511 closing price is 52,700 yuan/ton, with a volume of 329,612 lots and an open interest of 115,849 lots [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon spot premiums or discounts vary when benchmarked against different products. For example, the premium against East China Si5530 is +445 yuan/ton. Polysilicon spot premium against N - type re - feed is - 1105 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8800 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9850 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 52600 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon plant profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) are - 2366 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) are - 3311 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits are - 14.1 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.5 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.8 million tons. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 21.9 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 290 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1725 yuan/ton, and Ningxia washed coking coal is 1100 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price - The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) is 1.68 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.305 yuan/watt, and components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.682 yuan/watt [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon Price and Profit - The price of DMC is 10800 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 1123 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.9 Aluminum Alloy Price and Profit - The price of ADC12 is 20950 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 170 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia is actively stabilizing the revenue level of new energy projects, promoting the high - quality development of new energy. In 2025, Hohhot plans to implement 107 key projects in the new energy industrial cluster with an investment of 96.9 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coexistence of the off - peak season during the supposed peak period and cost support is expected to lead to an oscillatory trend in the market. The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots showed a weak and oscillatory performance last week. Macroeconomic factors, cost, and inventory conditions will jointly affect the price trend of ADC12, with the price expected to oscillate. One - sided trading can consider lightly - weighted long positions on dips, and the existing arbitrage positions can be held with appropriate stop - profit settings [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. 1. Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers but Remains Low, Price Oscillates at High Levels - Last week (09/15 - 09/19), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated weakly. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 1.6% week - on - week to 20,325 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The price of waste aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the FOB price of Malaysian crushed primary aluminum increased by 33 US dollars to 2,233 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 113.3 yuan/ton to 20,226 yuan/ton, and the profit widened by 13.2 yuan/ton to 73.8 yuan/ton [12][13] - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly driven by the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.2. 2. Recent Industry News Review - In July 2025, the global primary aluminum supply was short of 11.99 tons, and from January to July 2025, the supply shortage was 98.53 tons [18] - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys expanded steadily, while recycled alloys were still below the boom - bust line [19] - In July 2025, China's waste aluminum imports increased by 18.7% year - on - year, with Thailand and Japan being the major suppliers [19] - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, including rectifying illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [19][20] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [20] 3.3. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. 3.1 Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers, Price Remains High - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly due to the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.3.2. 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated weakly this week, with a 1.6% decline. The sales price of Baotai's ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 - A00 spread marginally narrowed. After entering the traditional peak season, the market performance was below expectations, and the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise. The production of standard warehouse receipts for cast aluminum alloy futures will start on September 22nd. The pre - holiday inventory - building demand is expected to provide short - term support for the spot price, and the trading activity of ADC12 in the trading segment increased this week due to the strengthening of the basis. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots continued to rise to 7.14 tons, and the factory - level inventory increased by 0.03 tons to 6.08 tons [16] 3.3.3. 3.3 Downstream: Peak - Season Expectations are Difficult to Fulfill - The high - frequency data of new - energy vehicles showed signs of weakening, and the peak - season expectations for the downstream industry are difficult to fulfill. The production and sales data of the automotive and motorcycle industries are presented in the report, reflecting the current situation of the downstream demand [2][60][66]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting industrial silicon at high prices and indicates that the short - term sentiment for polysilicon may cool down [1]. 2. Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, profit, and raw material costs, and also presents relevant macro and industry news [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511 (industrial silicon) had a closing price of 8,905 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60 yuan compared to T - 1, 165 yuan compared to T - 5, and 280 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume was 475,698 lots, and the open interest was 285,052 lots. PS2511 (polysilicon) had a closing price of 53,205 yuan/ton, with a change of - 285 yuan compared to T - 1 and - 505 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume was 198,758 lots, and the open interest was 122,834 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The spot premium or discount of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different changes compared to different benchmarks. For example, the industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was + 445 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan compared to T - 1, - 15 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 330 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan compared to T - 1, 200 yuan compared to T - 5, and 100 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 52,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan compared to T - 1, 1,050 yuan compared to T - 5, and 5,600 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,366 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60 yuan compared to T - 1, - 165 yuan compared to T - 5, and 55 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 14.1 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, 0.7 yuan compared to T - 5, and 2.9 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5. The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 21.9 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5 [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 330 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan compared to T - 5 and T - 22. The price of washed coking coal in Ningxia was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1 and T - 5, and up 130 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Ningxia - Hunan ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project was officially put into operation, which can transmit 36 - 40 billion kWh of clean electricity annually, meeting 1/6 of Hunan's electricity demand. Sungrow provided 1.27GW high - power string inverters for the Ningxia photovoltaic base of the project [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon was both - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3].

Report Overview - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Title: Industrial Silicon: Monitor Market Sentiment Changes; Polysilicon: Spot Prices Rise Slightly [1][2] Core Views - The industrial silicon market has been persistently sluggish, but companies like Yongchang Silicon Industry are taking proactive measures to optimize production and reduce costs [2][4] - Polysilicon spot prices have seen a slight increase [2] Industry Data Summary Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon (Si2511)**: The closing price was 8,965 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 275,990 lots and an open interest of 285,673 lots. Compared to previous periods, the price, volume, and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Polysilicon (PS2511)**: The closing price was 53,490 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 186,238 lots and an open interest of 126,234 lots. There were also significant changes compared to previous periods [2] Basis and Price - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot premium/discount varied depending on the grade and region. For example, the premium/discount for Xinjiang 99 silicon was -215 yuan/ton [2] - **Polysilicon**: The spot premium/discount for N-type recycled materials was -1,440 yuan/ton [2] Profit - **Industrial Silicon**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan were -2,306 yuan/ton and -3,251 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon enterprise profits were -14.1 yuan/kg [2] Inventory - **Industrial Silicon**: Social inventory was 53.9 million tons, enterprise inventory was 17.4 million tons, and the total industry inventory was 71.3 million tons. Futures warehouse receipt inventory was 24.9 million tons [2] - **Polysilicon**: Manufacturer inventory was 21.9 million tons [2] Raw Material Costs - **Silicon Ore**: Prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 330 yuan/ton and 300 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Washed Coal**: Prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,700 yuan/ton and 1,100 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Petroleum Coke**: Prices for Maoming Coke and Yangzi Coke were 1,400 yuan/ton and 1,770 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Electrodes**: Graphite electrode and carbon electrode prices were 12,450 yuan/ton and 7,200 yuan/ton respectively [2] Other Industries - **Organic Silicon**: DMC price was 10,800 yuan/ton, and enterprise profit was -1,162 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Alloy**: ADC12 price was 21,050 yuan/ton, and recycled aluminum enterprise profit was 160 yuan/ton [2] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [4] - Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 (slightly bullish) [4] Company News - Yongchang Silicon Industry has implemented a series of measures to optimize production and reduce costs, achieving continuous improvement in production indicators and significant enhancement in cost control [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the casting aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly last week. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase from the previous week, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. With tight scrap aluminum supply and cost support, the sales price of alloy ingots is likely to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. For arbitrage, the previous long AD2511 and short AL2511 arbitrage orders can be held, but a reasonable stop - profit space should be set if the automobile market weakens [1][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival Continues to Decline for Weeks, Continuously Monitor Policies and Peak - Season Demand - Last week (09/08 - 09/12), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. The cost side provides strong support, and the profit has significantly narrowed [12] - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, rising 100 - 300 yuan. The prices of some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys increased significantly. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend. Under the peak - season expectation, the demand for raw materials by enterprises is increasing, and the upward trend of scrap aluminum is expected to continue [15] 2. Recent Industry News Review - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. The primary alloy expanded steadily, while the recycled alloy was still below the boom - bust line [18] - In July 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 160,500 tons, a 3.15% month - on - month increase and an 18.68% year - on - year increase. Thailand and Japan were the main suppliers [18] - Four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, requiring the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [18] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Arrival Continues to Decline, Price Remains High - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, with some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys rising significantly. The high price dampened the purchasing sentiment of some aluminum enterprises. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend, but the increase is weaker than that of primary aluminum [15] 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy futures trended strongly, with a 1.8% increase. The spot price of Baotai also rose significantly. It is expected to remain strong in the short term. However, the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise, and most enterprises had insufficient short - term orders, weakening their pricing power [16] 3.3 Downstream: Weekly Sales of Various Automobile Brands are Weakening, Be Alert to the Risk of Unfulfilled Peak - Season Demand - The market still expects an improvement in demand, and enterprise orders are gradually recovering. However, the weekly sales data of various automobile brands show signs of weakening, and the automobile inventory warning index has increased month - on - month. There is a risk that the peak - season demand may not be fulfilled [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The走势 rating for casting aluminum alloy is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated last week. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 0.3% week-on-week to 20,280 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 remained flat at 20,300 yuan/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 33.1 yuan/ton to 20,025 yuan/ton, and the profit narrowed to 125.3 yuan/ton [1][12]. - The scrap aluminum market remains tight in supply, with the weekly arrivals of scrap aluminum traders decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The supply of crushed primary aluminum is particularly tight, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum has significantly narrowed. Attention should be paid to the cancellation of tax rebates in Jiangxi, Anhui and other places. If the policy spreads, it may lead to aluminum enterprises lowering the purchase price of non - invoiced scrap aluminum, and the invoiced scrap aluminum and imported raw materials will be in high demand [2][15]. - On the supply side of ADC12, the operating rate of secondary aluminum plants has stabilized and rebounded due to the seasonal increase in demand, and the lifting of environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, Jiangxi and other places has also contributed to the increase. However, the subsequent operating rate is still restricted by factors such as unclear local tax refund policies, difficult scrap aluminum procurement and high raw material costs. On the demand side, as it enters the traditional peak season in September, downstream demand has shown a slight recovery, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. Attention should be paid to the risk of a lackluster peak season [2][16]. - Considering the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the significant decline in the raw material inventory of some alloy ingot factories, the cost support is relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, as the peak season for automobiles approaches, the direct impact on the demand for ADC12 is higher than that for A00. It is recommended to continuously pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 [3][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival Declining for Several Consecutive Weeks, Continuously Monitor the Implementation of Tax Rebate Cancellation Policy - Last week, the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 remained flat. The price of scrap aluminum in Guangdong remained unchanged, while the FOB price of crushed primary aluminum from Malaysia increased by 15 US dollars/ton. The cost of ADC12 decreased slightly, and the profit narrowed [1][12][13]. - The scrap aluminum market is in short supply, with the arrivals of scrap aluminum traders decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The supply of crushed primary aluminum is extremely tight, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum has significantly narrowed. The price of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cancellation of tax rebates in Jiangxi, Anhui and other places [15]. 3.2. Recent Industry News Review - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing a positive signal of transition from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys maintained steady expansion, while secondary alloys were still below the boom - bust line [18]. - In July 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports increased by 18.68% year - on - year. Thailand and Japan were the top two suppliers [18]. - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate the implementation of policies related to investment promotion, requiring the rectification of issues such as illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [18]. - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff list [19]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Scrap Aluminum: Tight Arrivals, High Prices - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, with the arrivals of scrap aluminum traders decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum has significantly narrowed. The price of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong in the short term due to the unclear tax rebate policy and resource scarcity [15]. 3.3.2. ADC12: Strong Prices, High Social Inventory - The price of casting aluminum alloy futures oscillated last week, with a decline of 0.3%. The spot selling price of Baotai remained at 20,300 yuan/ton, at a premium to the futures price. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 has been narrowing [16]. - On the supply side, the operating rate of secondary aluminum plants has rebounded, but is still restricted by factors such as unclear tax refund policies, difficult scrap aluminum procurement and high raw material costs. On the demand side, as it enters the traditional peak season in September, downstream demand has shown a slight recovery, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has continued to increase, while the in - plant inventory has decreased [16]. 3.3.3. Downstream: Marginal Weakening of Semi - Steel Tire Production, Be Aware of the Risk of a Lackluster Peak Season - As it enters the traditional peak season in September, downstream demand for ADC12 has shown a slight recovery, but the high - frequency data of automobile production shows that the weekly operating rate of semi -/full - steel tires has weakened, and the automobile inventory warning index has increased. Attention should be paid to the risk of a lackluster peak season [2][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The implementation of policies such as the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a significant impact on aspects like local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry, increasing production costs and potentially leading to production cuts or shutdowns [2][3][10] - Under the influence of reverse invoicing investigations and tax rebate declines, the demand for invoiced resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase, and the production costs of ADC12 in East and South China may change structurally, providing strong support for the price of ADC12 [4][24] - Considering the cost - increase expectations on the smelting side and the supply shortage of scrap aluminum, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Event Overview - Since August 1, 2024, the "Regulations on the Review of Fair Competition" has clearly restricted tax incentives for specific operators. Recently, the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a major impact on local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry [10] Event Analysis - Due to the low entry threshold of the recycled aluminum industry and local tax rebate policies, a large amount of production capacity has expanded, resulting in intensified competition, thin profits, and low capacity utilization. As of July 2025, the monthly production capacity of 158 sample recycled cast aluminum enterprises reached 1264,500 tons, but the output was only 528,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 41.7%. In 2024, the operating production capacity of recycled aluminum in China was 23 million tons, and the actual output was 10.5 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 45%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 pcts [10] - There are "tax havens" in the recycled aluminum industry. The comprehensive tax burden of recycled aluminum enterprises in Anhui is about 6.5%, and the lowest can reach 5.5%, which can reduce the operating cost by 300 - 400 yuan/ton. In 2024, the production capacity of recycled aluminum in Anhui exceeded 2 million tons, accounting for more than 10% of the national total [11] - The policy aims to promote fair competition. The cancellation of local tax rebates may increase the comprehensive tax burden by about 4% and the production cost by up to 800 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in tax - haven areas may face production cuts or shutdowns. However, the policy implementation has a gradual nature, and most enterprises are given a buffer period [17][18] - The policy may reduce the demand for scrap aluminum, but if local governments investigate the compliance of reverse invoicing, the demand for invoiced and imported scrap aluminum will increase sharply. The cost in East China may increase significantly [21] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is strong, and the volatility of the futures market has increased [1]. - In the polysilicon market, there have been more disturbances in the news this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The PS2511 contract's closing price was 52,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,310 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts showed significant changes [2]. - **Price and Profit**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock, have fluctuated. The profit of silicon plants and polysilicon enterprises has also changed, with silicon plant profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan still in the negative range [2]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, and the enterprise inventory was 17.1 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 24.2 million tons. There were slight changes in inventory levels compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon, such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes, have shown different degrees of stability or change. For example, the price of graphite electrodes increased by 250 yuan/ton compared to a week ago [2]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Chain**: In the photovoltaic industry chain, the prices of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA have also changed. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 16.9 yuan/kg, showing an improvement compared to previous periods [2]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: The price of DMC in the organic silicon market was 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan from the previous trading day. The profit of DMC enterprises was - 364 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy market, the price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 360 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On August 11, the Xining Market Supervision Bureau organized a launch meeting for a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project to strengthen the construction of intellectual property standardization pilot cities, integrate resources to empower the photovoltaic industry, and help build a defensive patent system [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 1, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly upward, reaching a high of 20,270 yuan/ton during the week. As the traditional off - season deepens, downstream die - casting enterprises are on high - temperature holidays, dragging down orders in the recycled aluminum industry. New orders are limited, and with the accumulation of social inventory, off - season pressure will gradually emerge. However, due to cost support, the short - term price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [6]. - As of August 15, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses increased by 0.09 million tons to 11 million tons compared with the previous week, remaining at a high level. In August, the amount of waste generated at the terminal was lower than expected, and the supply of waste aluminum raw materials was limited. In the second week of August (August 4 - 10), domestic automobile sales were 378,000 units, a nearly 20% decrease from the previous week. The trade - in policy has outstanding effects, and the fourth batch of funds will be released as planned in October, which helps to stabilize consumer confidence and boost automobile consumption. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", automobile sales are expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.556 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45%, and the cumulative import was 10.122 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.88% [9][14]. - The refined - scrap price difference shows a fluctuating trend [18]. Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy has a small increase, and the price difference between ADC12 and A00 has converged [26]. - The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has weakened and shows certain seasonal patterns [31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has a small decline, while the monthly operating rate has increased [36]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in a loss - making state on average [38]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has decreased rapidly, while social inventory has been continuously accumulating. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [43][45]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, information on production and inventory is provided, including production volume and inventory distribution in different regions [48][50]. Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - In terms of terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has affected die - casting consumption. The production of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances, as well as relevant indicators such as automobile inventory warning index and PPI of auto parts manufacturing, are presented in the report [55][56].