Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The implementation of policies such as the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a significant impact on aspects like local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry, increasing production costs and potentially leading to production cuts or shutdowns [2][3][10] - Under the influence of reverse invoicing investigations and tax rebate declines, the demand for invoiced resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase, and the production costs of ADC12 in East and South China may change structurally, providing strong support for the price of ADC12 [4][24] - Considering the cost - increase expectations on the smelting side and the supply shortage of scrap aluminum, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Event Overview - Since August 1, 2024, the "Regulations on the Review of Fair Competition" has clearly restricted tax incentives for specific operators. Recently, the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a major impact on local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry [10] Event Analysis - Due to the low entry threshold of the recycled aluminum industry and local tax rebate policies, a large amount of production capacity has expanded, resulting in intensified competition, thin profits, and low capacity utilization. As of July 2025, the monthly production capacity of 158 sample recycled cast aluminum enterprises reached 1264,500 tons, but the output was only 528,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 41.7%. In 2024, the operating production capacity of recycled aluminum in China was 23 million tons, and the actual output was 10.5 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 45%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 pcts [10] - There are "tax havens" in the recycled aluminum industry. The comprehensive tax burden of recycled aluminum enterprises in Anhui is about 6.5%, and the lowest can reach 5.5%, which can reduce the operating cost by 300 - 400 yuan/ton. In 2024, the production capacity of recycled aluminum in Anhui exceeded 2 million tons, accounting for more than 10% of the national total [11] - The policy aims to promote fair competition. The cancellation of local tax rebates may increase the comprehensive tax burden by about 4% and the production cost by up to 800 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in tax - haven areas may face production cuts or shutdowns. However, the policy implementation has a gradual nature, and most enterprises are given a buffer period [17][18] - The policy may reduce the demand for scrap aluminum, but if local governments investigate the compliance of reverse invoicing, the demand for invoiced and imported scrap aluminum will increase sharply. The cost in East China may increase significantly [21] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is strong, and the volatility of the futures market has increased [1]. - In the polysilicon market, there have been more disturbances in the news this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The PS2511 contract's closing price was 52,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,310 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts showed significant changes [2]. - **Price and Profit**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock, have fluctuated. The profit of silicon plants and polysilicon enterprises has also changed, with silicon plant profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan still in the negative range [2]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, and the enterprise inventory was 17.1 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 24.2 million tons. There were slight changes in inventory levels compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon, such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes, have shown different degrees of stability or change. For example, the price of graphite electrodes increased by 250 yuan/ton compared to a week ago [2]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Chain**: In the photovoltaic industry chain, the prices of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA have also changed. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 16.9 yuan/kg, showing an improvement compared to previous periods [2]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: The price of DMC in the organic silicon market was 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan from the previous trading day. The profit of DMC enterprises was - 364 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy market, the price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 360 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On August 11, the Xining Market Supervision Bureau organized a launch meeting for a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project to strengthen the construction of intellectual property standardization pilot cities, integrate resources to empower the photovoltaic industry, and help build a defensive patent system [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 1, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly upward, reaching a high of 20,270 yuan/ton during the week. As the traditional off - season deepens, downstream die - casting enterprises are on high - temperature holidays, dragging down orders in the recycled aluminum industry. New orders are limited, and with the accumulation of social inventory, off - season pressure will gradually emerge. However, due to cost support, the short - term price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [6]. - As of August 15, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses increased by 0.09 million tons to 11 million tons compared with the previous week, remaining at a high level. In August, the amount of waste generated at the terminal was lower than expected, and the supply of waste aluminum raw materials was limited. In the second week of August (August 4 - 10), domestic automobile sales were 378,000 units, a nearly 20% decrease from the previous week. The trade - in policy has outstanding effects, and the fourth batch of funds will be released as planned in October, which helps to stabilize consumer confidence and boost automobile consumption. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", automobile sales are expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.556 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45%, and the cumulative import was 10.122 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.88% [9][14]. - The refined - scrap price difference shows a fluctuating trend [18]. Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy has a small increase, and the price difference between ADC12 and A00 has converged [26]. - The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has weakened and shows certain seasonal patterns [31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has a small decline, while the monthly operating rate has increased [36]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in a loss - making state on average [38]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has decreased rapidly, while social inventory has been continuously accumulating. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [43][45]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, information on production and inventory is provided, including production volume and inventory distribution in different regions [48][50]. Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - In terms of terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has affected die - casting consumption. The production of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances, as well as relevant indicators such as automobile inventory warning index and PPI of auto parts manufacturing, are presented in the report [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the foundry aluminum alloy industry is "Bullish" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scarcity of scrap aluminum resources and the expected increase in demand for ticketed resources and imported raw materials provide strong support for the price of ADC12. Considering the expected production cuts due to policies and the strong market sentiment for long - positions, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. Additionally, an arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and short on AL2511 when the spread is below - 500 can be considered [2][15][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival is Scarce, Beware of the Risk of Tax Rebate Decline - Last week (08/11 - 08/15), the price of recycled cast aluminum alloy ingots fluctuated strongly. The closing price of AD2511 increased by 0.3% to 20,165 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 19,900 yuan/ton. The cost side was strongly supported, and the profit margin widened [12] - The prices of different scrap aluminum varieties showed mixed trends this week. The factors affecting the fundamentals of scrap aluminum include the cooling of the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the high inflation data in the US, the slowdown of order - taking by spot - futures traders and traditional traders, and the reduction or suspension of production by some enterprises, which suppresses the upward movement of scrap aluminum prices [13] - The raw material inventory in national alloy ingot factories and the social inventory of scrap aluminum have both increased marginally. However, due to the high price of scrap aluminum, aluminum enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness. The arrival of scrap aluminum has decreased, and it is expected that the inventory at the scrap aluminum end will not continue to accumulate. The demand for ticketed resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase significantly, which may widen the procurement price difference between East and South China [14][15] - The 2025 (770) document requires the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies in local government investment promotion. The cancellation of tax rebates and the investigation of reverse - invoicing will significantly increase enterprise production costs, and there may be a transfer of production capacity in tax - preferential areas. It is expected that the spot supply of aluminum alloy will tighten significantly, which is negative for scrap aluminum prices [16] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries jointly issued a notice to rectify illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies in local government investment promotion, including the full - scale inspection and abolition of relevant policies, the immediate suspension of illegal clauses in existing projects, and the prohibition of various illegal operations. For some specific violations, a transition period can be set, with the latest exit deadline of August 2027 [21] - The US government announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products. The expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18 [21] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Tight Arrival and Slight Inventory Accumulation - The report provides multiple data charts on scrap aluminum, including monthly production, monthly shipments, weekly procurement volume of traders, regional production, inventory of traders and foundry aluminum alloy factories, price trends, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum, reflecting the current situation of tight arrival and slight inventory accumulation of scrap aluminum [23][25][27] 3.2 ADC12: Strong Price and High Social Inventory - The report presents data on the closing price of the main contract of foundry aluminum alloy, term structure, basis, sales price, price difference with A00 aluminum, production and operation rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, social and in - factory inventory, and production and import profits, indicating that the price of ADC12 is strong and the social inventory is high [35][38][40] 3.3 Downstream: Weakening Start - up of Semi - Steel Tires and the Automobile Industry Still in the Off - season - The report uses data on the monthly consumption of recycled cast aluminum, automobile production (including new energy and fuel vehicles), motorcycle production, inventory warning index, and start - up rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires to show that the start - up of semi - steel tires is weakening and the automobile industry is still in the off - season [59][60][62]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market is in a weak pattern, and the short - term sentiment of polysilicon continues to cool down. The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a bearish view [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 contract's closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from T - 1. Its trading volume was 225,177 lots, a significant decrease of 185,194 lots compared to T - 1. The open interest was 194,340 lots, down 18,592 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2509 contract's closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 383,215 lots (down 182,623 lots from T - 1) and an open interest of 110,762 lots (down 16,227 lots from T - 1) [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 0 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first was 46.7 yuan/ton. The polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 195.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against different grades) and polysilicon's spot discount (against N - type re - investment material) showed various changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Prices**: In industrial silicon, the price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. In polysilicon, the price of N - type re - investment material was 47,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from T - 1. Other related products in the photovoltaic industry also had price changes [2]. - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for different regions (Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553) were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.2 yuan/kg, up 0.7 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 540,000 tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 229,000 tons. Both showed changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in the industrial silicon production process had different changes [2]. Macro and Industry News - On July 31, JinkoSolar released its July 2025 investor relations activity record. By the end of this year, the production capacity of products with a power of over 640W will account for 40 - 50% of the company's total production capacity. Next year, most of the production capacity will reach the mainstream power level of 650 - 670W. The company expects to achieve a power level of about 670W for its advanced production capacity next year and 680 - 700W in the next two or three years, maintaining a 1 - 2 grade leading advantage over its main competitors [3][4].

I. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. II. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the market analysis of industrial silicon and polysilicon, covering aspects such as fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength. For industrial silicon, it shows characteristics of warehouse receipt de - stocking and a resilient performance in the futures market. For polysilicon, there is increasing policy interference, and the upside potential should be noted [2]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Market**: The Si2509 closing price is 9,690 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,172,879 lots and a position of 336,274 lots. The PS2509 closing price is 53,765 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,123,795 lots and a position of 172,564 lots. There are also data on spreads and cross - period costs for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts against different benchmarks (e.g., +470 yuan/ton against East China Si5530), and polysilicon has a spot premium and discount of - 7740 yuan/ton against N - type re - investment [2]. - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 10,100 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10,300 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 46,000 yuan/ton. There are also price data for related products in the polysilicon (photovoltaic) and other industries [2]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are - 1,511 yuan/ton and - 3,384 yuan/ton respectively for the new standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profit is - 18.1 yuan/kg, and there are profit data for DMC and ADC12 enterprises [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 53.5 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.8 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 24.3 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with price changes over different time periods [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The 21.6MW centralized photovoltaic power generation project of Dongfang Hope Zhundong Industrial Park's thermal power plant has been officially connected to the grid. It can generate over 31 million kWh of electricity annually, replace about 9,400 tons of standard coal, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by over 25,000 tons, contributing to the regional green power supply and the "dual - carbon" goal [3][4]. 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1, indicating different market outlooks for the two [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, price, profit, inventory, and raw material costs. It also mentions relevant macro and industry news, and provides trend intensity indicators for industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon, Si2509's closing price was 9,525 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan compared to T - 1. Its trading volume was 1,681,997 lots, and the open interest was 334,776 lots. For polysilicon, PS2509's closing price was 50,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 975 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 1,246,241 lots and an open interest of 165,641 lots [2]. - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan from T - 1. The price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10,300 yuan/ton, also up 300 yuan. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 1,676 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan from T - 1. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186 yuan from T - 1. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 18.1 yuan/kg, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.7 million tons, with a decrease of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory of industrial silicon (sample enterprises) was 17.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons compared to T - 5. The industry inventory (social + enterprise inventory) was 72.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.50 million tons compared to T - 5. The futures warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 25.1 million tons, unchanged from T - 1. The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 24.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 5. The price of silicon ore in Yunnan was 320 yuan/ton, also unchanged compared to T - 5. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 5 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On July 21st, the Guizhou Energy Bureau issued the "Guizhou Province Power Demand Response Trading Scheme", which clarifies market participants, trading varieties, and price mechanisms. Market participants include industrial and commercial adjustable loads, energy storage, virtual power plants, and electric vehicle charging facilities, etc. [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tight supply of scrap aluminum provides strong support for the market. Despite the serious over - capacity and low operating rate in the recycled aluminum industry, the scrap aluminum supply shortage and the delayed arrival of the scrap peak in 2 - 3 years give a solid foundation to the market. There is a potential for a soft squeeze - out situation in the ADC12 market if the peak - season demand is fulfilled and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3][14][19]. - In terms of investment strategies, an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be considered currently, with profit expected to be realized in October. For unilateral trading, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Objects and Purposes - The research objects are 5 recycled aluminum plants and 2 scrap aluminum recyclers in Nantong, Baoying, Kunshan, and Shanghai. The purpose is to discuss aspects such as production capacity, output, scrap aluminum supply and demand, costs, prices, inventory strategies, and hedging intentions after the listing of aluminum alloy futures, and to think about subsequent trading logic [10]. 3.2. Key Research Findings and Analyses 3.2.1. Scrap Aluminum Procurement - Scrap aluminum procurement is tight due to limited imports (US tariff policies, port congestion in Malaysia, and environmental regulations in Thailand), limited domestic scrap aluminum increment but increasing demand, and some large factories only purchasing from large - scale ticket - issuing recyclers to avoid information asymmetry risks [14][17]. 3.2.2. Production and Operation - The surveyed recycled aluminum plants have an operating rate higher than the industry average, with an aluminum liquid direct - supply ratio of over 50 - 60% and a maximum transportation distance of 300km. The ADC12 production ratio is around 40 - 50%, and orders are mainly long - term contracts. There is a potential soft squeeze - out risk in the ADC12 market [18][19]. - The use ratio of raw and cooked aluminum in scrap aluminum is flexibly adjusted according to prices. The natural gas consumption per ton is 80 cubic meters, and the total processing fee is 800 - 1200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive tax burden in Jiangsu and Shanghai is about 2 percentage points higher than that in Anhui, but some enterprises can make up for this cost through local procurement and sales, and product quality premiums [23][24]. - The raw material inventory of surveyed enterprises is generally 7 - 10 days' usage, and the finished product inventory is about 1000 - 1500 tons, with some enterprises having no finished product inventory but a high aluminum liquid direct - supply ratio [25]. 3.2.3. Warehouse Receipts - Currently, surveyed enterprises are open to delivering warehouse receipts but are mostly in a wait - and - see mode, mainly referring to the futures price and basis in September - October. The storage time of ADC12 alloy ingots is limited, and the high standards of futures delivery products may reduce the willingness of downstream enterprises to take delivery from the futures market [27]. 3.3. Investment Recommendations 3.3.1. Arbitrage - Consider the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL. The current price difference between ADC12 and A00 fluctuates between - 1500 yuan and + 500 yuan/ton, and the profit is expected to be realized in October. In the long - term, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may gradually decrease [28]. 3.3.2. Unilateral Trading - Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. The tight scrap aluminum supply and the potential for a soft squeeze - out situation provide support for long - side trading [3][29]. 3.4. Research Minutes 3.4.1. Aluminum Alloy Plant A - Raw materials are mainly domestic scrap aluminum, with less than 20% imported. The annual production capacity is 24.99 tons, and the annual output is 22 tons. The ADC12 production ratio is over 40%. The enterprise does not stock finished products and sells based on orders [30]. 3.4.2. Aluminum Alloy Plant B - The import ratio of scrap aluminum is 30%, and the domestic ratio is 70%. The designed annual production capacity is 20 tons, and the current annual output is 7 - 8 tons. The enterprise plans to use a new production line for futures delivery products [33]. 3.4.3. Aluminum Alloy Plant C - Raw materials are mainly domestic. The Baoying base has a production capacity of 11.85 tons. The aluminum liquid ratio is over 60%, and the ADC12 ratio in aluminum ingots is less than 35%. The enterprise participates in hedging and has views on industry development [35][36]. 3.4.4. Aluminum Alloy Plant D - The Kunshan production line has a total approved production capacity of 12 tons, and the Anhui production line will focus on delivery. The ADC12 production ratio is 20 - 30%. The enterprise is positive about futures trading [37][38]. 3.4.5. Aluminum Alloy Plant E - The monthly scrap aluminum procurement is 4000 - 5000 tons. The current production capacity is 7 tons, and the monthly output is about 6000 tons. The enterprise is cautious about the increase in ADC12 social inventory [39][41]. 3.4.6. Scrap Aluminum Recycling Enterprise A - It has recycling centers in Shanghai and Fujian, with a large trading volume. It mainly recycles new scrap aluminum from aluminum processing enterprises and conducts business through long - term contracts [42]. 3.4.7. Scrap Aluminum Recycling and Aluminum Alloy Trading Enterprise B - It is a benchmark enterprise in scrap aluminum supply. The monthly ADC12 trading volume is about 1000 tons, and it may participate in delivery in November. It mainly conducts long - term contract business and hedges when purchasing scrap aluminum [44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][2][6] Core Viewpoints - The industry's start - up has shown differentiation, and in the short term, it is expected to be range - bound [2][6] - The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited upward space in the short term, but the cost - support logic remains [6] Summary by Directory Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining. For example, in May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 15.97 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.73% [14] - The scrap - refined price difference has declined [20] Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum alloy has been flat, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 has converged [27] - The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has basically converged and shows certain seasonal patterns [32] - The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the monthly start - up rate has increased [37] - ADC12 costs are mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average is estimated to be in a loss [38] - The explicit and implicit inventory of cast alloy has slightly decreased [43] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [45] - For recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are presented, with different production shares in various regions [48][49] Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: The production of fuel - powered vehicles has rebounded, which has been transmitted to die - casting consumption [55] - In July (July 7 - July 13), the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars was 333,000, a year - on - year decrease of 6.46% [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: July 6, 2025 - Report Author: Mo Xiaoxiong, Wang Zongyuan - Industry Investment Rating: Neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - Cast aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost, but the upside is limited due to weak demand, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] - The micro - fundamentals show that inventory remains high in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in scrap aluminum circulation [6] - The automotive market had a significant sales push at the end of the quarter in June, and consumer enthusiasm remains high [6] Supply - Side Analysis Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining [14] - The scrap - to - refined price difference shows a trend of narrow - range fluctuations and a gradual upward trend [6] Recycled Aluminum - Cast aluminum alloy prices have declined slightly in the short term, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 continues to weaken [27] - The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy has basically converged and shows certain seasonal patterns [32] - The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has been slightly reduced, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [37] - ADC12 production is currently in a state of average loss [42] - The obvious and hidden inventories of cast alloys have decreased slightly [47] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [49] - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods show certain regional characteristics [52][54] Demand - Side Analysis - In the terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption [59]