2026 年 01 月 07 日 工业硅：消息面扰动，盘面表现偏强 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息影响 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,900 | 170 | 20 | -20 | | | | | 460,467 | 189,335 | -74,103 | 314,468 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 234,611 | 17,319 | 9,869 | 40,685 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 59,365 | 720 | 410 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 19,919 | 2,764 | -111,171 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 72,353 | -2,218 | - ...

工业硅：关注上游工厂减产节奏 2025 年 12 月 31 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,915 | 200 | 135 | -215 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） Si2605持仓量（手） | 366,201 | -16,214 | 14,776 | 168,310 | | | | | 216,220 | -4,845 | 2,444 | 4,421 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） PS2605成交量（手） | 57,890 | 1,390 | -1,335 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 42,713 83,335 | -26,715 -12,296 | -110,600 -48,268 | - - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -35 | 0 | ...

宏观层面，12月26日，国家发展改革委产业发展司发布《大力推动传统产业优化提升》一文，利好情绪 推动有色板块整体走强，铜、铝、锡、锌等金属价格大幅上扬，市场看涨氛围浓厚。本交易日美元指数 触底反弹，叠加美国股市下挫，国内三大股指涨跌互现，限制铸造铝涨幅。不过，人民币持续升值，降 低了非美元货币的持有成本，铸造铝期货价格继续偏强震荡。 基本面方面，ADC12现货价格大幅上涨，为期价提供有力支撑。废铝价格居高不下且供应偏紧，再生 铝行业持续亏损，存在成本支撑效应。库存上，截至12月26日，铝合金周度库存为5.23万吨，虽较前一 周小幅下降，但仍处于历史高位。考虑到2026年补贴政策退坡以及消费需求前置，后期新能源汽车订单 的持续性存疑，预计铸造铝期价上行空间有限。现货市场买卖交投氛围整体向好。铝合金价格高位大幅 上涨，强化了持货商挺价惜售情绪，下游在看涨预期带动下积极入市采买，叠加元旦假期临近，下游补 货备库需求增加，市场活跃度显著提升，今日整体成交热烈。 综合来看，在铝价偏强和亏损压力下，铝合金价格支撑较强，但未来需求走弱预期及再生铝合金高库 存，将限制其上涨动力。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话： ...

【SMM 铝合金现货日评】今日SMM A00铝价大幅抬升160元/吨至22030元/吨，ADC12价格快速上涨 150元/吨至21950元/吨。当前原料供应较为紧张，叠加再生铝企业进入备库阶段，废铝需求上升，导致 价格跟涨较快，推涨ADC12成本。此外，铜价再创新高至94690元/吨，带动生铝系废铝及高铜含量合金 锭价格明显抬涨。然而需求端边际转弱，市场整体成交表现清淡；供应方面则受环保管控或成本利润倒 挂等因素影响，仍面临缩减压力。综合来看，成本支撑与供应收紧共同夯实价格底部，但需求放缓与铝 价高位震荡抑制了下游采购意愿，预计ADC12价格短期内将维持高位震荡走势。进口方面，目前海外 ADC12报价持稳于2630–2650美元/吨，受国内价格上涨及人民币走强带动，进口即时盈亏已回升至荣枯 线上方，理论进口窗口随之打开。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 【SMM 铝合金现货日评】今日SMM A00铝价大幅抬升160元/吨至22030元/吨，ADC12价格快速上涨 150元/吨至21950元/吨。当前原料供应较为紧张，叠加再生铝企业进入备库阶段，废铝需求上升，导致 价格跟涨较快，推涨ADC12成本。此外 ...

【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | 指标名称 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,350 | -85 | -325 | -795 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 303,910 | 75,733 | 52,114 | 11,431 | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 200,749 | 89,925 | 13,662 | -67,009 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 58,030 | 840 | 3,485 | - | | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 314,139 | -548 | 156,169 | - | | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 142,844 | 16,408 | 63,477 | - | | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | 10 | 60 | 15 | 10 | | | | | ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 品 研 究 工业硅：关注新疆环保进度 多晶硅：盘面高位震荡 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 根据 Wood Mackenzie 与美国太阳能行业协会联合发布的《US Solar Market Insight Q4》报告显 示，2025 年第三季度美国新增光伏装机 11.7GW，同比增 20%、环比激增 49%。截至 2025 年第三季度，太 阳能占美国电网新增发电容量的 58%，累计装机量已超 30GW。同期，太阳能与储能项目合计占新增发电容 量的 85%。报告将这一波装机增长归因于积压项目的集中释放。报告指出，第二季度这些项目因《和解法案》 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 8,435 | 150 | -370 | -760 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 05 日 工业硅：偏弱运行 多晶硅：关注仓单注册情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 8,910 | -10 | -205 | 25 | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 152,172 | 6,173 | -171,352 | -227,614 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 193,019 | -907 | -44,629 | -49,134 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 56,915 | -515 | 1,680 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 175,576 | -6,849 | -148,494 | - | | | | PS2601持仓量（手） | 116,653 | -11, ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Mainly weak operation [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the fermentation of news [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also reports on a key project milestone in the polysilicon industry. The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1, 100 yuan from T - 5, and 220 yuan from T - 22. PS2601 (polysilicon) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1 and 4,390 yuan from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +580 yuan/ton, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 5430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,349.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,596 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 550,000 tons, enterprise inventory was 180,000 tons, and industry inventory was 730,000 tons. Polysilicon factory inventory was 281,000 tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 320 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project, EPC - contracted by China Energy Construction Shanxi Electric Power Engineering Company, was successfully connected to the grid, marking a breakthrough in the project's construction [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

需期货有限公司 2025年12月02日 C Futures Company Limited 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 二、电解铝 三、铝合金 一、氧化铝 (1) 12月2日SMM AOD均价21710元/吨:环比-20元/吨;升贴水为-50元/ （1）12月2日保太ADC12价格为20900元/吨; 环比持平; (1) 12月2日国产矿价格为509元/吨,环比0元/吨;2日几内亚进口矿价 (2) 12月2日生铝精废价差为1669元/吨,环比-30元/吨;2日型材铝精废 吨,环比0元/吨; 格71美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 12月2日电解铝冶炼利润为5284元/吨,环比-246元/吨; 价差2421元/吨,环比-30元/吨; (2) 12月2日现货价格指数为2826元/吨,环比-3元/吨; (3) 12月2日期货库存为64198吨,环比-29吨; (3) 12月2日期货库存为66833吨,环比0吨; (3) 12月2日期货库存253612吨,环比0吨; (4) 12月2日铝进口盈亏为-2006元/吨,环比-13元/吨; (4) 12月2日进口盈亏为-375元/吨,环比-15元/吨; (4) 12月2日进 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to mainly experience a moderately strong and volatile trend [1]. - For polysilicon, attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly spread [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2601 closing price was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan compared to T - 1, -370 yuan compared to T - 5, and 55 yuan compared to T - 22. The Si2601 trading volume was 369,225 lots, and the open interest was 260,529 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2601 closing price was 55,895 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,165 yuan compared to T - 1 and 1,270 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Basis**: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +480 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was -3,895 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,250 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) was -2,249.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises was 7.7 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 548,000 tons, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 271,000 tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore was 320 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang washed coking coal was 1,475 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 22, the main structure of the first - phase waste heat power generation project of the Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project, undertaken by the Fourth Branch, was successfully capped. This project adheres to the concept of "environmental protection first, energy - saving and high - efficiency" and uses innovative technologies to recycle high - temperature flue gas in the industrial silicon smelting process, realizing pollution control and improving energy utilization efficiency [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].