期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 05 日 铝：震荡走弱 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【综合快讯】 1. 贝森特听证"火星四射"：否认关税导致通胀，重申强美元，问责美联储，被喷当特朗普走狗。贝森 特称，民主党议员不理解普遍通胀与一次性价格上涨的区别，在坚称关税不会引发通胀后被议员要求"闭 嘴"。他说，美联储应保持货币政策独立，但拜登政府期间联储放任了高通胀，总统和议员一样有权干预联 储决策；去年美国国债吸引创纪录的海外资金流入；批评拜登政府搞反射性监管而非预防危机、其政策让 加密货币"灭绝"；财政部无权用税款买比特币，目前未考虑建央行数字货币；认为监管小银行不应像大银 行那么严。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

2026 年 02 月 05 日 品 研 究 工业硅：下方空间不深 多晶硅：行业会议情绪积极，或提振盘面 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,850 | 35 | 90 | 120 -62,906 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 208,226 | -48,015 | -35,488 | | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 241,016 | 6,216 | 5,333 | 23,724 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 51,195 | 1,195 | 390 | - | | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 13,013 | -5,284 | 4,652 | - | | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） ...

2026 年 02 月 04 日 期货研究 工业硅：关注市场情绪变化 多晶硅：关注北京会议情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,815 256,241 | 20 -210,484 | -45 38,449 | -45 31,016 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 234,800 | -1,513 | -7,825 | 30,806 | | | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 50,000 | 2,950 | -1,900 | - | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605成交量（手） | 18,297 | 508 | 7,073 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 38,411 | -1,867 | -3,028 | - | | | | ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：上游减产落地，对价格构成支撑 多晶硅：关注现货实际成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,850 | -75 | 30 | 135 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 557,616 | 257,384 | 327,652 | 175,201 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 236,627 | -26 | 5,193 | 15,562 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 47,140 | -2,195 | -3,580 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 19,537 | 3,911 | 6,094 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 42,513 | ...

2026 年 01 月 30 日 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,925 | 165 | 100 | 45 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 300,232 | 56,518 | 70,102 | -234,338 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 236,653 | 970 | 8,165 | 11,911 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 49,335 | -1,470 | -1,180 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 15,626 | 7,265 | 4,704 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 42,745 | 1,330 | -573 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -45 | -5 | -45 | -45 | | | | 工业硅：买近月抛连一跨期成本（元/吨） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short at high prices due to downstream production cuts [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways trend [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and macro - industry news. It also gives the trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon, guiding investment decisions [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, Si2605's closing price was 8,730 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume was 235,842 lots, down 10,094 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, PS2605's closing price was 48,670 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume was 12,703 lots, down 8,239 lots from T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +520 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from T - 1. Polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - feed) was +6580 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan from T - 1 [2] - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1; polysilicon - N - type re - feed was 54750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2] - **Profit**: Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553, yuan/ton) was - 2596.5, down 25 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon enterprise profit (yuan/kg) was 10.3, up 0.4 from T - 1 [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.5 tons, with an increase of 0.3 tons compared to T - 5; polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 32.1 tons, with an increase of 1.9 tons compared to T - 5 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China Meteorological Administration and National Energy Administration issued a guidance on promoting the construction of an energy meteorological service system. By 2027, an integrated energy meteorological service system will be basically established, and by 2030, key meteorological service technologies for water, wind, solar, and storage will reach international advanced levels [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1 (indicating a bearish view); Polysilicon trend intensity: 0 (indicating a neutral view) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows strong performance on the futures market due to news - related disturbances, and attention should be paid to the impact of today's market news on the polysilicon market [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Si2605 is 8,900 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 460,467 lots and an open interest of 234,611 lots. The closing price of PS2605 is 59,365 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 19,919 lots and an open interest of 72,353 lots [1] - **Basis**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is +350 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type re - investment) is - 5,865 yuan/ton [1] - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2,426.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.2 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.7 million tons, and the factory inventory of polysilicon is 30.6 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and the price of graphite electrodes is 12,450 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Shaanxi Province plans to implement a differential electricity price policy from July 1, 2026. Restricted - category enterprises will have an additional 0.1 yuan/kWh, and eliminated - category enterprises will have an additional 0.3 yuan/kWh. This policy involves 3 industrial silicon enterprises in Shaanxi [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm of upstream factories [1]. - For polysilicon, it will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2605): The closing price was 8,915 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, 135 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 215 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 366,201 lots, and the open interest was 216,220 lots [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2605): The closing price was 57,890 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,390 yuan compared to T - 1 and - 1,335 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Basis Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium/discount varied when对标 different grades. For example, when对标ing East China Si5530, it was + 335 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: When对标ing N - type re - investment material, the spot premium/discount was - 5,890 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - investment material was 52,500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit Data**: - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,411.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) it was - 4,719 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.2 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory Data**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory was 19.6 million tons, and the industry inventory was 75.1 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 30.3 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan it was 250 yuan/ton [2]. - Other raw materials: The prices of washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. were also provided [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On December 19, the completion ceremony of the deep - treatment project of the ore - heating furnace flue gas of Sichuan Fuxing New Materials Co., Ltd. was held, aiming at green transformation and high - quality regional development [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and strong demand, although future demand uncertainties and high inventory levels may limit further price gains [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) opened with a brief drop but rebounded, closing at 21,590 yuan, an increase of 195 yuan or 0.91% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 9,139 lots, a decrease of 3,705 lots, while open interest fell by 1,147 lots to 6,056 [1]. Group 2: Price Movements - On December 29, the average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 23,900 yuan/ton, up by 300 yuan; A380 ingots averaged 23,500 yuan/ton, also up by 300 yuan; ADC12 averaged 22,100 yuan/ton, increasing by 200 yuan; ZL102 averaged 23,300 yuan/ton, up by 300 yuan; and ZLD104 averaged 23,200 yuan/ton, rising by 300 yuan [1]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The current price surge for ADC12 provides strong support for futures prices, while high scrap aluminum prices and tight supply continue to exert cost support [2]. - As of December 26, aluminum alloy weekly inventory stood at 52,300 tons, slightly down from the previous week but still at historically high levels [2]. - The market is experiencing a positive trading atmosphere, with increased buying activity driven by bullish expectations and pre-holiday stocking needs [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite strong support for aluminum alloy prices, expectations of weakening demand and high inventory levels in the recycled aluminum sector may limit upward price momentum [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in aluminum prices, with SMM A00 aluminum rising by 160 yuan/ton to 22,030 yuan/ton, and ADC12 prices increasing by 150 yuan/ton to 21,950 yuan/ton due to tight raw material supply and rising demand for recycled aluminum [1] - The price of copper has reached a new high of 94,690 yuan/ton, which has positively influenced the prices of aluminum scrap and high-copper-content alloy ingots [1] - Despite the cost support and tightening supply reinforcing the price floor, the demand side is showing signs of weakness, leading to a subdued overall market transaction performance [1] Group 2 - The current overseas ADC12 price remains stable at 2,630–2,650 USD/ton, and the rise in domestic prices along with a stronger yuan has led to an improvement in the import profit margin, indicating that the theoretical import window has opened [1] - The market is expected to see ADC12 prices maintain a high-level fluctuation in the short term due to the combination of cost support and supply constraints, while demand slowdown and high aluminum prices are suppressing downstream purchasing intentions [1]