铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2026年03月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：地缘扰动加剧，价格高位震荡 强弱分析：中性 精废价差回落 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ADC12-A00价差 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market is mainly in a weak pattern, and the demand for polysilicon is declining [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2605's closing price was 8,625 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 45 yuan compared to T - 1; PS2605's closing price was 42,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts also showed certain changes [2] - **Basis**: The spot premium or discount of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends compared to different benchmarks [2] - **Prices**: The prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and related products such as silicon powder, silicon wafers, and battery cells all had certain fluctuations [2] - **Profits**: The profits of silicon factories, polysilicon enterprises, DMC enterprises, and regenerative aluminum enterprises also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon's social inventory, enterprise inventory, and industry inventory decreased to some extent, while the polysilicon's factory inventory increased [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes remained relatively stable, with only a few showing slight changes [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The Shanghai Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the application for the development and construction plan of on - shore wind power and photovoltaic power stations in 2026, specifying new application projects [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

2026 年 03 月 09 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：关注成本端抬升影响 多晶硅：供需偏弱 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,690 | 125 | 295 | -170 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 223,150 | -51,105 | -43,131 | 5,358 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 273,926 | -13,863 | -54,490 | 31,301 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 41,115 | -1,165 | -5,380 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 9,065 | -897 | -574 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 36,990 | 82 | -3, ...

2026 年 02 月 27 日 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,335 | -95 | -35 | -510 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 177,274 | 22,967 | 16,804 | -213,840 | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 325,323 | 11,364 | 17,559 | 90,156 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 46,315 | -1,315 | -2,865 | - | | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 8,466 | 3,330 | 3,673 | - | | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 39,925 | 1,633 | 1,612 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On February 26, the domestic bauxite price was 491 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/dry ton compared to the previous day [41]. - On February 26, the spot price index was 2,654 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [41]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 26, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium and discount was -175 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on February 26, the futures inventory was 288,287 tons, an increase of 3,112 tons compared to the previous day [3]. - According to Mysteel, on February 26, the aluminum rod processing fee was 106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy - On February 26, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [4]. - On February 26, the ADC12 price was 23,200 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [4]. - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on February 26, the futures inventory was 66,174 tons, a decrease of 907 tons compared to the previous day [4].

2026 年 02 月 12 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 工业硅：盘面波幅减少 多晶硅：部分仓单注销，关注情绪影响 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,375 188,888 | -75 -11,212 | -440 -67,353 | -340 -256,687 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 303,387 | 8,477 | 68,587 | 63,683 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 48,950 | -420 | -1,050 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 3,991 | -715 | -14,306 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 38,617 | 270 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Weakening in a fluctuating manner [1] - Alumina: Trading in a range [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - It also provides the trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, with aluminum and aluminum alloy at 0 (neutral), and alumina at -1 (weakly bearish) [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - Shanghai Aluminum main contract: The closing price was 23,955, down 1685 from T - 5; trading volume was 451,208, down 485,903 from T - 5; open interest was 224,756, down 138,077 from T - 5 [1]. - LME Aluminum 3M: The closing price was 3059, down 205 from T - 5; trading volume was 24,872, down 22,559 from T - 5; LME注销仓单占比 was 11.01%, up 5.90% from T - 5 [1]. Alumina - Shanghai Alumina main contract: The closing price was 2824, up 13 from T - 5; trading volume was 420,118, down 453,523 from T - 5; open interest was 375,698, down 91,018 from T - 5 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy main contract: The closing price was 22,595, down 1190 from T - 5; trading volume was 8206, down 15,184 from T - 5; open interest was 4530, down 4315 from T - 5 [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 82.90 million tons, up 3.30 million tons from T - 5; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 15.03 million tons, up 0.75 million tons from T - 5; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.52 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from T - 5 [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 7524.75, up 470.00 from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The domestic average alumina price was 2646, down 2 from T - 5; the alumina price at Lianyungang's CIF was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 5 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 theoretical profit was 380, down 60 from T - 1; the Baotai ADC12 price was 23,200, up 200 from T - 1 [1]. Others - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2275, down 50 from T - 1 [1].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The downside space for industrial silicon is not deep [1]. - The sentiment at the polysilicon industry conference is positive, which may boost the market [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: Si2605's closing price is 8,850 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 208,226 lots and an open interest of 241,016 lots; PS2605's closing price is 51,195 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 13,013 lots and an open interest of 39,092 lots [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +500 yuan/ton; polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - feed) is +2555 yuan/ton [1]. - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 53500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profits**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2281.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 5474 yuan/ton; the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.0 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.4 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons; polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 33.3 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton; Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1475 yuan/ton, Ningxia washed coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton; Maoming petroleum coke is 1400 yuan/ton, Yangzi petroleum coke is 2340 yuan/ton; graphite electrode is 12450 yuan/ton, carbon electrode is 7200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) is 1.53 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.435 yuan/watt, components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.738 yuan/watt, photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, and photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is 1906 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is 23800 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 40 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Yunnan Province issued the "Implementation Rules of the <Eco - protection Compensation Regulations> of Yunnan Province", aiming to establish a power - generating enterprise feedback mechanism, extracting ecological protection compensation funds from hydropower and photovoltaic enterprises based on power generation, operating income, or carbon sink losses for ecological restoration and efficient water resource utilization [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 2. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to market sentiment changes in industrial silicon and the situation of the Beijing meeting in polysilicon [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,815 yuan/ton, with a volume of 256,241 lots, and an open interest of 234,800 lots. PS2605 closing price is 50,000 yuan/ton, with a volume of 18,297 lots, and an open interest of 38,411 lots [1] - Industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 35 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the continuous - first inter - period is 51.2 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 120.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium to East China Si5530 is + 535 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot premium to N - type re - investment material is + 3750 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53500 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 are - 2316.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 5509 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.4 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 33.3 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Costs - The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions are provided. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Downstream Products of Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - The prices and profit situations of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given. For example, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers is 1.53 yuan/piece, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton, and the DMC enterprise profit is 1912 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 23650 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 360 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6233 newly - established on - record new energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaics) nationwide, including 36 wind power projects, 6190 photovoltaic power generation projects (48 centralized photovoltaic power generation projects and 6142 industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects), and 7 biomass power generation projects [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Upstream production cuts in the industrial silicon sector have been implemented, providing support for prices. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions in the polysilicon market [1]. - In 2025, national energy investment maintained rapid growth, with the completed investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, a year-on-year increase of nearly 11%. The growth rate was 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points higher than that of infrastructure and manufacturing respectively. Energy investment had three main characteristics: accelerated release of new investment in the energy green - transformation, significant growth in new on - shore wind power installations and investment, and a doubling of investment in new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking 1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605: The closing price was 8,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 30 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 135 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 557,616 lots, with an increase of 257,384 lots compared to T - 1, an increase of 327,652 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 175,201 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest was 236,627 lots, a decrease of 26 lots compared to T - 1, an increase of 5,193 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 15,562 lots compared to T - 22 [1]. - PS2605: The closing price was 47,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,195 yuan compared to T - 1 and a decrease of 3,580 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 19,537 lots, an increase of 3,911 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 6,094 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest was 42,513 lots, a decrease of 232 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 1,222 lots compared to T - 5 [1]. 1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varied depending on different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium against East China Si5530 was +400 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - investment material was +3165 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. 1.3 Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 51300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1200 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 2700 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 1100 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon (photovoltaic): The prices of relevant products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA had different changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC was 13900 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and an increase of 300 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 was 24350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 350 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1950 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.4 Profits - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2206.5 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 5414 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 1.1 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Organic silicon: The profit of DMC enterprises was 1830 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, a decrease of 46 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 101 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 420 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 290 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 0.3 tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 20.9 tons, a decrease of 0.41 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 1.3 tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) was 76.3 tons, a decrease of 0.61 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 1.04 tons compared to T - 22. The futures warehouse receipt inventory was 7.0 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared to T - 1, an increase of 0.4 tons compared to T - 5, and an increase of 2.0 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 33.3 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 2.7 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.6 Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore: The price in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The price in Yunnan was 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 20 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Washed coking coal: The price in Xinjiang was 1475 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia was 1200 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Petroleum coke: The price of Maoming coke was 1400 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze coke was 2340 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Electrodes: The price of graphite electrodes was 12450 yuan/ton, and the price of carbon electrodes was 7200 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 30, 2026, the National Energy Administration held a press conference. In 2025, national energy investment maintained rapid growth, with the completed investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, a year - on - year increase of nearly 11%. Five provinces (autonomous regions) including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu completed investments of over 200 billion yuan. Energy investment had three main characteristics: accelerated release of new investment in the energy green - transformation, significant growth in new on - shore wind power installations and investment, and a doubling of investment in new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 1, and the trend intensity of polysilicon was 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3].