智通财经APP获悉，瑞银此前预计短期美债占可流通债务比重的快速扩张阶段已经过去。然而，《GENIUS 法案》可能带来新一轮增长。 美国财政部长贝森特认为，2 万亿美元是美元稳定币的合理规模，且存在上行风险。财政部借款咨询委员会(TBAC)讨论的情景是：到 2028 年市值达 2 万亿 美元，对应整体交易量增长 7 倍、货币流通速度不变、稳定币交易占外汇现货交易比重升至 10%。 代币化货币市场基金已成替代方案，因其可像基金一样提供收益，而稳定币则通常无收益。稳定币行业的增长还将取决于国际使用范围。 根据该法案，稳定币发行方必须用短期、高流动性且优质的资产维持 100% 的储备支持。获批的储备资产包括：美元现钞、短期美国国债、受保存款机构存 款以及短期国债回购协议。 国际清算银行(BIS)估算，稳定币已购入约 400 亿美元的美国短期国债，规模与最大的一只美国政府货币市场基金相当，且超过多数国家的持有量。在债务 上限问题解决及政府货币市场基金大幅扩张后，目前短期美债市场仍有充裕的吸纳能力。 若《GENIUS 法案》刺激更多短期国债需求，美国财政部可略微推迟扩大附息国债发行规模的时间，也有更大空间回购流动性较差的 ...

Group 1 - The US Treasury market has experienced significant volatility this year, driven by concerns over rising government deficits, tariff disputes, and changes in foreign buyer demand [1][3] - Investor panic has been primarily fueled by worries regarding Trump's tariff policies and the expanding US budget deficit, which may lead to higher inflation and sustained high interest rates [3][4] - The French bank Société Générale anticipates that the current turmoil in the US Treasury market is unlikely to end in the short term, with major developments expected to impact the market [1][4] Group 2 - Key developments to watch in the US Treasury market include a surge in new debt issuance as the government increases borrowing and the Federal Reserve continues quantitative tightening [4] - The demand for stablecoins, supported by short-term US Treasury bills, may boost demand for government bonds, with stablecoin issuers' asset management expected to grow significantly [4]