Core Viewpoint - The rumors regarding foreign capital selling US Treasury bonds are unfounded, as data from the US Treasury's International Capital Movement report indicates that the turmoil in May was not caused by foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In May, global trade tensions eased, with the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy in a 90-day buffer period, leading to a 27.6% month-on-month decline in the US trade policy uncertainty index [1]. - The US government faced increasing criticism of the Federal Reserve, and Moody's downgraded the US's last AAA sovereign credit rating, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and the sustainability of US debt [1]. - The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields rose above 4.5% and 5.0%, respectively, with monthly increases of 24 and 26 basis points, resulting in a significant drop in Treasury prices [1]. Group 2: Capital Flows - In April, international capital experienced a net outflow of $146 billion, reversing a net inflow of $171.2 billion in March, coinciding with a 4.4% drop in the dollar index [2]. - In May, the US financial market rebounded, with the S&P 500 index rising 6.1%, leading to a net capital inflow of $311.1 billion, a month-on-month increase of $3.257 billion, marking the third-highest monthly inflow on record [2]. Group 3: Foreign Investment in US Securities - Foreign investors net purchased $318.5 billion in US long-term securities in May, a month-on-month increase of $369.1 billion, contributing 113.1% to the net capital inflow [3]. - Private foreign capital was the main contributor, with a net inflow of $333.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of $330.4 billion, marking the highest monthly net inflow on record [4]. Group 4: Types of Securities - Foreign investors significantly increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with net purchases of $1.463 billion in May, a month-on-month increase of $1.871 billion, contributing 50.7% to the net purchases of long-term securities [5]. - Private foreign investors were the primary buyers of US long-term securities, shifting from a net sale of $50.6 billion to a net purchase of $318.5 billion in May [5][6]. Group 5: Country Contributions - Canada was the largest contributor to the net purchase of US long-term securities in May, with a net inflow of $146.7 billion, accounting for 39.7% of the total [9]. - Other significant contributors included the Cayman Islands, Singapore, China, and Japan, with China ending a 10-month streak of net sales to net purchase $3.2 billion in May [10][11].

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银此前预计短期美债占可流通债务比重的快速扩张阶段已经过去。然而，《GENIUS 法案》可能带来新一轮增长。 美国财政部长贝森特认为，2 万亿美元是美元稳定币的合理规模，且存在上行风险。财政部借款咨询委员会(TBAC)讨论的情景是：到 2028 年市值达 2 万亿 美元，对应整体交易量增长 7 倍、货币流通速度不变、稳定币交易占外汇现货交易比重升至 10%。 代币化货币市场基金已成替代方案，因其可像基金一样提供收益，而稳定币则通常无收益。稳定币行业的增长还将取决于国际使用范围。 根据该法案，稳定币发行方必须用短期、高流动性且优质的资产维持 100% 的储备支持。获批的储备资产包括：美元现钞、短期美国国债、受保存款机构存 款以及短期国债回购协议。 国际清算银行(BIS)估算，稳定币已购入约 400 亿美元的美国短期国债，规模与最大的一只美国政府货币市场基金相当，且超过多数国家的持有量。在债务 上限问题解决及政府货币市场基金大幅扩张后，目前短期美债市场仍有充裕的吸纳能力。 若《GENIUS 法案》刺激更多短期国债需求，美国财政部可略微推迟扩大附息国债发行规模的时间，也有更大空间回购流动性较差的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of dynamic rebalancing in asset allocation to maintain the intended risk and return profile of an investment portfolio amidst market fluctuations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Allocation and Market Dynamics - Asset allocation involves distributing funds across various asset types, such as stocks and bonds, to achieve specific investment goals [1]. - Market volatility can lead to a drift in the initial asset allocation, affecting the risk profile and potentially leading to missed opportunities or increased risk exposure [2][3]. Group 2: Dynamic Rebalancing Strategy - Dynamic rebalancing is based on the principle of mean reversion, where asset prices tend to fluctuate around an average level over time [3]. - Without dynamic rebalancing, an investment portfolio may deviate significantly from its intended asset allocation, leading to unintended risk exposure [3][4]. Group 3: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio - The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio strategy allocates funds equally among four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash or short-term treasury bills, aiming for stable returns across different economic conditions [4]. - The initial allocation is 25% for each asset class, which is designed to perform well in varying economic environments [4]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - Data from 2014 to 2025 shows that portfolios with dynamic rebalancing have similar long-term annualized returns compared to those without rebalancing, but with significantly lower maximum drawdowns [7][8]. - The Sharpe ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns, is higher for rebalanced portfolios, indicating better performance under similar risk conditions [8]. Group 5: Implementation of Dynamic Rebalancing - The article introduces a dynamic rebalancing signal system, which monitors key asset performance indicators and provides guidance on adjusting asset allocations [9][10]. - This system helps investors maintain discipline in their investment strategies, reducing emotional decision-making during market fluctuations [10][11].