Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For copper, with the S232 investigation pending, the US dollar copper market may still siphon copper from other regions, and the copper market will face a tight - balance situation prone to squeezes. After the 232 investigation results are out, the arbitrage window may disappear, and if the copper tariff is below 15%, there may be a reverse flow of copper [1]. - For aluminum, supply has a slight increase, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the inventory is expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and anti - arbitrage opportunities [1]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated upward this week due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and the inventory overseas remains stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - For stainless steel, supply has partial production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has a slight increase. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [6]. - For lead, the price rebounded this week due to speculation. Supply is expected to slightly decrease in July, demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. - For tin, the price fluctuated upward due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by production cuts, demand has a downward trend, and the short - term supply - demand is weak with strong support at the bottom [11]. - For industrial silicon, due to the significant production cut of a leading enterprise, the supply - demand balance turns to de - stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the price increased due to speculation. Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, which will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market situation: The S232 investigation has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, reducing LME and domestic inventories. The price volatility has increased, and the LME cash - 3M spread has widened [1]. - Outlook: Before the S232 investigation results are out, the tight - balance situation will continue. After the results are out, the market logic may reverse [1]. Aluminum - Supply: There is a slight increase in supply, with imports providing an increment from January to May [1]. - Demand: Expected to seasonally weaken in July, with flat supply - demand [1]. - Inventory: Expected to be balanced in July [1]. Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC increased, and the supply is expected to increase by more than 5000 tons in July [2]. - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak in some regions [2]. - Strategy: Short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May [5]. - Demand: Overall weak, with a slight increase in LME premium [5]. - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory decreases slightly [5]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have partial production cuts since late May [6]. - Demand: Mainly for rigid needs [6]. - Inventory: There is a slight increase in inventory in two major regions [6]. Lead - Supply: Scrap battery supply is tight, and the supply is expected to slightly decrease in July [8]. - Demand: Battery inventory is high, and the demand is weak in the off - season [8]. - Price: Expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. Tin - Supply: Myanmar's production resumption needs negotiation, and domestic production has decreased [11]. - Demand: Welding tin demand has limited elasticity, and terminal demand is expected to decline [11]. - Strategy: Hold long positions cautiously in the short - term and consider short positions after the maintenance period [11]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: A leading enterprise has significantly cut production, and the overall supply is expected to decrease [14]. - Demand: The market expectation turns to de - stocking [14]. - Price: Expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase with the复产 of some enterprises [16]. - Demand: Weak, with limited improvement from policies [16]. - Price: Supply surplus will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and is prone to short squeezes. The outcome of the S232 investigation will significantly impact the market. If the copper tariff is below 15%, the global narrative logic of the copper market may reverse [1][2] - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation. Pay attention to demand and consider reverse arbitrage strategies in the context of low inventory [1] - The zinc market maintains a bearish allocation strategy. Continue to hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] - The nickel market has a general short - term fundamental situation. Keep an eye on the opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week. In July, primary supply is expected to slightly decrease while demand is weak [7] - The tin market is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. The long - position strategy can be cautiously held, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [10] - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the price will be based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13] - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face upward pressure on supply and downward pressure on price in the short term. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may drive up sentiment [15] Summary by Metal Copper - Market situation: The S232 investigation has led to a significant decrease in LME and domestic electrolytic copper inventories. The price volatility has increased, and the LME cash - 3M spread has widened [1][2] - Outlook: The situation of low inventory and potential short squeezes will continue. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1][2] Aluminum - Supply and demand: Supply has slightly increased, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July. The supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1] - Strategy: Pay attention to demand and consider reverse arbitrage strategies in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - Price movement: The zinc price has oscillated upward this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment [2] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to increase in July, and demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas [2] - Strategy: Maintain a bearish allocation strategy and continue to hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] Nickel - Supply and demand: Pure nickel production remains high, and demand is weak. Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [5] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - Supply and demand: Supply has decreased due to partial production cuts by steel mills, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [6] - Inventory: There is a slight increase in inventory in Xijiao and Foshan, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired [6] - Outlook: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] Lead - Price movement: The lead price has rebounded from a low level this week, mainly due to speculation on battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warehouse receipts [7] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to slightly decrease in July, and demand is weak [7] - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week [7] Tin - Price movement: The tin price has oscillated upward this week, mainly driven by commodity sentiment [10] - Supply and demand: Supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and demand is weak. The domestic and overseas inventory situations are different [10] - Strategy: Cautiously hold long positions in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [10] Industrial Silicon - Supply: Hoshine Silicon Industry has significantly reduced production, while Yunnan and Sichuan are expected to increase production [13] - Outlook: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the price will be based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term [13] Lithium Carbonate - Price movement: The price has increased due to sentiment speculation this week [15] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is weak [15] - Outlook: The price is expected to face upward pressure on supply and downward pressure on price in the short term, but the "anti - involution" policy may drive up sentiment [15]