Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For copper, with the S232 investigation pending, the US dollar copper market may still siphon copper from other regions, and the copper market will face a tight - balance situation prone to squeezes. After the 232 investigation results are out, the arbitrage window may disappear, and if the copper tariff is below 15%, there may be a reverse flow of copper [1]. - For aluminum, supply has a slight increase, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the inventory is expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and anti - arbitrage opportunities [1]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated upward this week due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and the inventory overseas remains stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - For stainless steel, supply has partial production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has a slight increase. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [6]. - For lead, the price rebounded this week due to speculation. Supply is expected to slightly decrease in July, demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. - For tin, the price fluctuated upward due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by production cuts, demand has a downward trend, and the short - term supply - demand is weak with strong support at the bottom [11]. - For industrial silicon, due to the significant production cut of a leading enterprise, the supply - demand balance turns to de - stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the price increased due to speculation. Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, which will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market situation: The S232 investigation has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, reducing LME and domestic inventories. The price volatility has increased, and the LME cash - 3M spread has widened [1]. - Outlook: Before the S232 investigation results are out, the tight - balance situation will continue. After the results are out, the market logic may reverse [1]. Aluminum - Supply: There is a slight increase in supply, with imports providing an increment from January to May [1]. - Demand: Expected to seasonally weaken in July, with flat supply - demand [1]. - Inventory: Expected to be balanced in July [1]. Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC increased, and the supply is expected to increase by more than 5000 tons in July [2]. - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak in some regions [2]. - Strategy: Short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May [5]. - Demand: Overall weak, with a slight increase in LME premium [5]. - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory decreases slightly [5]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have partial production cuts since late May [6]. - Demand: Mainly for rigid needs [6]. - Inventory: There is a slight increase in inventory in two major regions [6]. Lead - Supply: Scrap battery supply is tight, and the supply is expected to slightly decrease in July [8]. - Demand: Battery inventory is high, and the demand is weak in the off - season [8]. - Price: Expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. Tin - Supply: Myanmar's production resumption needs negotiation, and domestic production has decreased [11]. - Demand: Welding tin demand has limited elasticity, and terminal demand is expected to decline [11]. - Strategy: Hold long positions cautiously in the short - term and consider short positions after the maintenance period [11]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: A leading enterprise has significantly cut production, and the overall supply is expected to decrease [14]. - Demand: The market expectation turns to de - stocking [14]. - Price: Expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase with the复产 of some enterprises [16]. - Demand: Weak, with limited improvement from policies [16]. - Price: Supply surplus will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the S232 investigation pending, the US copper market may continue to attract copper from other regions, leading to a tight - balance situation with low inventories and potential squeezes for both SHFE and LME copper. After the investigation results are out, the market narrative may reverse [1] - Aluminum: Supply has a slight increase, and in July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The market is expected to be balanced in terms of supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1] - Zinc: Zinc prices fluctuated upwards this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening seasonally. The short - term strategy is to short zinc on rebounds and hold long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets [2] - Nickel: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and demand is weak. The short - term fundamentals are average, and opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6] - Stainless Steel: Supply has been reduced since late May, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the overall fundamentals are weak, with prices expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] - Lead: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week, which was due to speculation. The supply in July is expected to slightly decrease, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 [8] - Tin: Tin prices fluctuated upwards this week, driven by commodity sentiment. The supply is disturbed, and demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term, and long - positions can be cautiously held [11] - Industrial Silicon: With significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and in the long - term, it will be mainly based on the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises [14] - Lithium Carbonate: Prices increased due to sentiment speculation this week. The supply is expected to be in surplus next week, putting pressure on prices. However, "anti - involution" policies may drive up sentiment [16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market Concerns: There are concerns about the S232 investigation results, and the NYMEX - LME price spread has widened again [1] - Inventory Situation: By May, over 450,000 tons of electrolytic copper were attracted to the US, causing significant drops in LME and domestic inventories [1] - Price Movement: As LME inventory dropped below 100,000 tons and cancelled warrants soared, copper price volatility rebounded, and the LME cash - 3M spread widened [1] Aluminum - Supply and Demand: Supply increased slightly from January to May, and in July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The market is expected to be balanced [1] - Inventory Outlook: In July, supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and attention should be paid to long - term spreads and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage opportunities in a low - inventory situation [1] Zinc - Price Trend: Zinc prices oscillated upwards this week due to high macro - sentiment [2] - Supply Side: Domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and imported TC rose by 10 dollars/dry ton. In July, some smelters will undergo maintenance, but new capacities in the southwest and central regions will be put into production, with an expected increase of over 5,000 tons of zinc ingots [2] - Demand Side: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is also weak. Some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2] - Strategy: The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds and hold long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets [2] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and nickel bean imports increased in May [6] - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has slightly strengthened [6] - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [6] - Opportunity: Attention can be paid to opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have reduced production passively since late May [7] - Demand: Demand is mainly for rigid needs [7] - Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable [7] - Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have slightly increased, and some exchange warrants have expired and been liquidated [7] - Price Outlook: The overall fundamentals are weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] Lead - Price Movement: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week [8] - Supply Side: Scrap battery recycling volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of concentrates has tightened. TC is in a chaotic state [8] - Demand Side: Battery inventory is high, and the operating rate has declined this week. Consumption is weak in the off - season from April to July [8] - Price Forecast: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and if the price remains above 17,200 due to macro factors, there may be a risk of price - support cycles [8] Tin - Price Trend: Tin prices oscillated upwards this week, driven by commodity sentiment [11] - Supply Side: Myanmar's Wa State needs to negotiate for short - term复产, and domestic smelting profits are inverted, with some production cuts in Jiangxi and difficult operations in Yunnan. Overseas supply disturbances have basically subsided [11] - Demand Side: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and the growth rates of terminal electronics and photovoltaics are expected to decline. Domestic inventory oscillates, and overseas consumption continues to drive down LME inventory [11] - Strategy: Long - positions can be cautiously held in the short term, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - Production Changes: Hoshine Silicon Industry in Xinjiang significantly reduced production, while production in Yunnan slightly increased, and Sichuan's production remained stable [14] - Supply - Demand Balance: Due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14] - Long - Term Outlook: In the long - term, prices will be mainly based on the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises, and attention should be paid to cost reduction due to green - electricity subsidies and falling thermal - power prices [14] Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: Prices increased due to sentiment speculation this week [16] - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, with downstream demand remaining weak. Some smelters have cut production, and high - cost capacities are being cleared [16] - Price Outlook: The supply surplus will lead to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices, but "anti - involution" policies may drive up sentiment [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and is prone to short squeezes. The outcome of the S232 investigation will significantly impact the market. If the copper tariff is below 15%, the global narrative logic of the copper market may reverse [1][2] - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation. Pay attention to demand and consider reverse arbitrage strategies in the context of low inventory [1] - The zinc market maintains a bearish allocation strategy. Continue to hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] - The nickel market has a general short - term fundamental situation. Keep an eye on the opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week. In July, primary supply is expected to slightly decrease while demand is weak [7] - The tin market is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. The long - position strategy can be cautiously held, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [10] - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the price will be based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13] - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face upward pressure on supply and downward pressure on price in the short term. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may drive up sentiment [15] Summary by Metal Copper - Market situation: The S232 investigation has led to a significant decrease in LME and domestic electrolytic copper inventories. The price volatility has increased, and the LME cash - 3M spread has widened [1][2] - Outlook: The situation of low inventory and potential short squeezes will continue. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1][2] Aluminum - Supply and demand: Supply has slightly increased, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July. The supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1] - Strategy: Pay attention to demand and consider reverse arbitrage strategies in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - Price movement: The zinc price has oscillated upward this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment [2] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to increase in July, and demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas [2] - Strategy: Maintain a bearish allocation strategy and continue to hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] Nickel - Supply and demand: Pure nickel production remains high, and demand is weak. Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [5] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - Supply and demand: Supply has decreased due to partial production cuts by steel mills, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [6] - Inventory: There is a slight increase in inventory in Xijiao and Foshan, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired [6] - Outlook: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] Lead - Price movement: The lead price has rebounded from a low level this week, mainly due to speculation on battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warehouse receipts [7] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to slightly decrease in July, and demand is weak [7] - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week [7] Tin - Price movement: The tin price has oscillated upward this week, mainly driven by commodity sentiment [10] - Supply and demand: Supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and demand is weak. The domestic and overseas inventory situations are different [10] - Strategy: Cautiously hold long positions in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [10] Industrial Silicon - Supply: Hoshine Silicon Industry has significantly reduced production, while Yunnan and Sichuan are expected to increase production [13] - Outlook: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the price will be based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term [13] Lithium Carbonate - Price movement: The price has increased due to sentiment speculation this week [15] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is weak [15] - Outlook: The price is expected to face upward pressure on supply and downward pressure on price in the short term, but the "anti - involution" policy may drive up sentiment [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the copper market, due to the uncertain S232 investigation on copper and the anticipation of US copper tariffs, a large amount of electrolytic copper has flowed to the US, leading to low inventory levels in the LME and domestic markets. The copper market is in a tight - balance situation prone to short - squeezes. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July. The supply - demand balance is expected to be flat, with a short - term stable fundamental situation. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated upwards this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase in July, while demand is seasonally weak. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation mindset for zinc and hold long - short positions between domestic and foreign markets [2]. - In the nickel market, supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends overseas and domestically. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, with supply cuts by some steel mills, mainly driven by rigid demand. Inventory has slightly increased, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week, mainly due to speculation on battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warrants. However, actual downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. It is expected that lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in primary supply and weak demand in July [7]. - Tin prices have fluctuated upwards, mainly affected by commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by mining issues, and demand is expected to decline. In the short term, long - positions can be cautiously held, and high - short opportunities after the maintenance period can be considered in the medium - to - long term [10]. - For industrial silicon, due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. In the long term, prices are expected to be anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices have risen due to sentiment speculation. Supply is expected to be excessive in the short term, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices. However, "anti - involution" competition policies may drive sentiment up [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the premium changed by - 13, and the LME inventory decreased by 650 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: The market is worried about the S232 investigation. The anticipation of US copper tariffs has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, resulting in low inventory levels and increased price volatility [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, and the LME inventory increased by 550 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply has increased slightly, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be flat [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 80, and the LME inventory decreased by 1750 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices have fluctuated upwards due to high macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase in July, while demand is seasonally weak [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 288 tons [5]. - **Market Situation**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends overseas and domestically [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan slightly increased [6]. - **Market Situation**: The fundamental situation is weak, with supply cuts by some steel mills and mainly rigid demand [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: Lead prices rebounded from a low level due to speculation, but actual downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. It is expected to fluctuate in a certain range next week [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot import profit decreased by 1572.76, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have fluctuated upwards due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by mining issues, and demand is expected to decline [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 271 [13]. - **Market Situation**: Due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the SMM electric - carbon price increased by 150, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased by 630 [15]. - **Market Situation**: Prices have risen due to sentiment speculation. Supply is expected to be excessive in the short term, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation, with supply and demand expected to be balanced in July. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - The zinc market maintains a short - selling strategy, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. - The lead market is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in supply and weak demand in July [7]. - The tin market can hold long positions cautiously in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [10]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be strong in the short term and will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the medium - to - long term [13]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to face supply surplus and price pressure next week, but the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 45, the LME inventory decreased by 1,800 tons, and the LME cash - 3M spread changed significantly [1]. - **Market Situation**: The S232 investigation on copper is pending. The US has siphoned a large amount of electrolytic copper, leading to low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the social inventory remained stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly in 1 - 5 months. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The market is in a balanced state in terms of supply and demand, and attention should be paid to low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the zinc price fluctuated upward. The domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase in July. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is also weak. The short - selling strategy remains unchanged, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 450, and the LME inventory increased by 78 tons [4]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the demand is weak. The inventory in overseas nickel plates is stable, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. Continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of waste stainless steel remained stable from June 23 - 27. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to production cuts in some steel mills since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The LME inventory increased by 175 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has some problems, and the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17,200 [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the tin price fluctuated upward. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. Cautiously hold long positions in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The base difference strengthened, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - **Market Situation**: The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lithium carbonate price increased due to sentiment speculation. The base difference weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to continue to be in surplus next week, and the price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, recognize the short - term support of structural squeeze on absolute prices, but focus on three potential changes in the copper fundamentals in the third quarter: S232 survey results may land in July, after which prices may peak and fall; US copper inventory may flow back globally at about 60,000 tons per month; there are expectations of weaker performance in some sectors in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, pay attention to demand, and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [1]. - For zinc, maintain the idea of short - allocation, hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [2][3]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - For stainless steel, the short - term is expected to be weak and volatile [6]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week, with supply in June expected to be flat and demand weak [8]. - For tin, short - term long - allocation can be held cautiously, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [10]. - For industrial silicon, the spot price will be under pressure in the future, and in the long - run, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long term, the price will be weak and volatile if the leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises' operating rates do not decline significantly; in the short - term, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, putting pressure on prices [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 20 - 26, the spot price changed by 40, the warehouse receipt changed by 2226, and the LME inventory decreased by 400 tons. The LME cash - 3m spread exceeded 200 US dollars, but the 3m futures price did not rise [1]. - **Market Situation**: The market is in a state of long - short stalemate. The S232 survey may land in July, and after that, the price and the squeeze situation may change. The US copper inventory may flow back globally, and some sectors in the third quarter may see weaker performance [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 20 - 26, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price changed by 80, and the inventory remained unchanged. The supply increased slightly, and the demand in June was expected to be seasonally weak [1]. - **Market Situation**: There is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory reduction is gentle from June to July. Pay attention to demand and consider some arbitrage strategies [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. The domestic TC and import TC remained unchanged. The social inventory was oscillating, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [2]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased in June, domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand was weak. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to appear at the end of June [2][3]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at 60.0. The domestic inventory decreased slightly, and the LME premium strengthened slightly [3][5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remained high, and the demand was weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, etc. remained mostly unchanged, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [6]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to some steel mills' production cuts, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the cost remained stable. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The lead price rebounded from a low level. The supply - side had some problems, and the demand - side was weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week [8]. - **Market Situation**: The supply - side had issues such as low scrap volume and high - cost recycling. The demand - side had high battery inventory and weak consumption [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The tin price fluctuated widely. The LME inventory decreased slightly. The domestic production decreased in June, and the overseas supply disturbances basically subsided [9][10]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic raw material supply was disturbed, and the demand was expected to decline. It is in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The basis strengthened rapidly, and the warehouse receipts and non - standard products were removed quickly. The spot price was strong, but it is expected to be under pressure in the future [13][14]. - **Market Situation**: The overall market operation rate increased slightly. The price will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - run [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price decreased this week. The spot premium widened the month - spread, and the basis weakened. The inventory accumulated this week [16]. - **Market Situation**: In the medium - long term, the price will be weak and volatile if the leading enterprises' operating rates do not decline significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory and face price pressure [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For copper, recognize short - term support from structural squeeze on absolute prices, but focus on three possible third - quarter fundamental changes: S232 investigation impact, US copper inventory re - distribution, and potential weakening in some sectors [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are okay, pay attention to demand, and consider reverse spreads in low - inventory situations [1]. - For zinc, maintain a short - allocation strategy, hold long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets, and watch for reverse spreads between different months [2]. - For stainless steel, expect short - term weakening and oscillation [3]. - For lead, expect price to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week, with supply flat and demand weak in June [5]. - For tin, hold long - positions cautiously in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities after maintenance in the long - term [7]. - For industrial silicon, expect short - term price pressure and long - term bottom - running based on leading factories' cash - flow costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, expect short - term price decline and long - term weakening oscillation if major producers' operation rates don't drop significantly [11]. - For nickel, continue to watch for opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [14]. Summary by Metals Copper - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025 shows changes in various indicators. The LME inventory reaches below 100,000 tons for the first time this year, and the cash - 3M spread rises [1]. - Key factors include the possible July S232 investigation result, potential return of US copper inventory, and expected weakening in some sectors [1]. Aluminum - Pricing data is presented from June 19 - 25, 2025. Supply slightly increases, 6 - 7 demand is seasonally weak, and the 6 - 7 inventory reduction is gentle [1]. Zinc - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025 reveals wide - range price oscillation. Supply increases in June, demand weakens domestically and has production issues overseas, and inventory accumulation slow now but may speed up at the end of June [2]. Stainless Steel - Pricing data covers June 19 - 25, 2025. Supply sees partial production cuts from late May, demand is mainly for essential needs, and inventory slightly increases [3]. Lead - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025 shows a price low - point rebound. Supply has scrap shortage and complex TC; demand has high battery inventory and subdued consumption [5]. Tin - Pricing data is provided from June 19 - 25, 2025. Supply has production cuts in China and stable overseas; demand has limited elasticity and LME inventory decline [7]. Industrial Silicon - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025. Production starts to increase, with price supported in the short - term and pressured in the long - term due to capacity over - supply [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025. Price drops, production and inventory increase, and long - term price may weaken due to capacity expansion [11]. Nickel - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025. Supply maintains high levels and demand is weak, with inventory stable overseas and slightly decreasing in China [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, recognize the short - term support of structural squeeze on absolute prices, but focus on three possible fundamental changes in Q3, including the impact of S232 investigation, US copper inventory flow, and the weakening of some sectors [1] - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is seasonally weak in June, there is still a supply - demand gap, and pay attention to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] - For zinc, maintain the idea of short - allocation, hold long - short positions between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities between months [3][4] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is average, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - For stainless steel, the fundamental situation is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] - For lead, it is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [9] - For tin, hold long positions cautiously in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [11] - For industrial silicon, the spot price is expected to be under pressure, and in the long - term, it will mainly operate at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [14] - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, and the price will be under upward pressure, and it will oscillate weakly in the medium - long term [16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Type Copper - Weekly changes:沪铜现货升贴水 decreased by 55,废精铜价差 increased by 100,上期所库存 decreased by 3103, etc [1] - Market situation: LME copper inventory fell below 100,000 tons for the first time this year, the cash - 3m spread continued to rise, but the 3m futures price did not rise, and the market sentiment was still anxious [1] Aluminum - Weekly changes: Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices all decreased by 110, domestic alumina price decreased by 17, etc [1] - Market situation: Supply increased slightly, demand was seasonally weak in June, there was a supply - demand gap, and inventory decreased gently from June to July [1] Zinc - Weekly changes: Spot升贴水 decreased by 30, Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 200, etc [3] - Market situation: Zinc price fluctuated widely this week. Supply increased, demand weakened marginally, domestic social inventory oscillated, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation is expected to appear at the end of June [3] Nickel - Weekly changes:沪镍现货 price decreased by 650,金川升贴水 increased by 250, etc [6] - Market situation: Supply remained high, demand was weak, overseas nickel plate inventory remained stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [6] Stainless Steel - Weekly changes: 304冷卷 price decreased by 75, 304热卷 price decreased by 100, etc [7] - Market situation: Supply decreased due to partial production cuts by steel mills, demand was mainly for rigid needs, cost remained stable, and inventory increased slightly [7] Lead - Weekly changes:现货升贴水 remained unchanged, Shanghai - Henan价差 remained unchanged, etc [9] - Market situation: Lead price rebounded from a low level. Supply was affected by multiple factors, demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week [9] Tin - Weekly changes:现货进口收益 increased by 4745.70,现货出口收益 decreased by 4187.93, etc [10] - Market situation: Tin price fluctuated widely. Supply was affected by the situation in Myanmar, demand was limited, and it is expected to maintain a supply - demand dual - weak situation in the first half of the year [11] Industrial Silicon - Weekly changes: 421云南基差 decreased by 60, 421四川基差 decreased by 260, etc [14] - Market situation: Market start - up increased slightly, the basis strengthened rapidly, and the spot price is expected to be under pressure in the future [14] Lithium Carbonate - Weekly changes: SMM电碳价格 decreased by 50, SMM工碳价格 decreased by 50, etc [16] - Market situation: Lithium carbonate price decreased. Supply increased, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides weekly market analysis and investment strategies for various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate, highlighting the supply - demand situation, price trends, and potential investment opportunities and risks in each metal market [1][2][5][6][7][9][12][14] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, LME copper cancelled warrants were out of storage, and the overall LME copper inventory dropped below 100,000 tons for the first time this year. The LME cash - 3m spread continued to rise, but the 3m futures price did not follow the squeeze - up. The report is concerned about three possible fundamental changes in the third quarter: the S232 investigation rumor may land in July; after the investigation, the US copper inventory may flow back globally; and there are expectations of weakening in some sectors [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots from January to May provided an increment. The demand in June is expected to weaken seasonally, with the export of aluminum products remaining stable and the photovoltaic sector declining. There is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory reduction is gentle from June to July. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1] Zinc - This week, the zinc price fluctuated widely. The supply side saw an increase in smelting output in June, and the processing fee of the ore end is expected to increase. The domestic demand is marginally weakening, while overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory is oscillating, and the premium is continuously declining. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to appear at the end of June. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation idea, hold long - short domestic - foreign arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [2][3] Nickel - The supply side has a high - level production of pure nickel, and the import of nickel beans increased in May. The demand is weak, and the LME premium strengthened slightly. The overseas nickel plate inventory is maintained, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. After the rumor of the Philippine ban on raw ore exports was abolished, the concern about the ore end disturbance was alleviated. Attention can be continued to be paid to the opportunity of the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - Since late May, some steel mills have been passively reducing production. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are maintained. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired. The fundamentals are generally weak, and the spot pressure increases after the demand fades. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] Lead - This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The supply side has issues such as weak scrap battery recycling, tight waste battery supply, and environmental inspections. The demand side has high battery inventory, and the consumption is weak in the off - season. The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [7] Tin - This week, the tin price fluctuated widely. The supply side has issues such as the need for negotiation on the short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, low processing fees at the ore end, and production reduction in some domestic areas. The demand side has limited elasticity in solder, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The short - term supply and demand are expected to be weak, and there is strong support at the bottom. Long - position allocation can be cautiously held in the short term, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [9] Industrial Silicon - This week, the overall market start - up increased slightly. The basis strengthened rapidly, and the spot price was strong due to the stimulation of downstream speculative and replenishment sentiment. However, as the upstream resumption of production accelerates, the spot price is expected to be under pressure. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to operate at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises [12] Lithium Carbonate - This week, the lithium carbonate price declined. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply elasticity is high. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term. In the short term, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, which will put upward pressure on the price [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given documents. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the report acknowledges the short - term support of structural squeezes on absolute prices but focuses on three potential fundamental changes in the third quarter, including the impact of the S232 investigation, the return of US copper inventory, and the weakening in some sectors [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are decent, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory situation, pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - For zinc, the idea of short - allocation remains unchanged, and short on rebounds. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities should be noted [2][3]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [5]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [6]. - For tin, in the short term, long - allocation can be held cautiously, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [8]. - For industrial silicon, the spot price is expected to be under pressure, and in the long - term, it will run at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [10]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long term, the price will oscillate weakly. In the short term, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, pressuring the price [12]. Summaries by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the LME copper inventory decreased by 4125 tons to 99200 tons, and the注销仓单 decreased by 4300 tons to 44800 tons. The LME cash - 3m spread continued to rise, breaking through $200 [1]. - **Weekly Outlook**: Recognize short - term support from structural squeezes but focus on potential third - quarter changes such as the S232 investigation, US copper inventory return, and weakening in some sectors [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, domestic aluminum prices decreased by about 50 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2100 tons to 342850 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, and there is still a supply - demand gap. 6 - 7 months of gentle de - stocking [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. From June 16 - 20, 2025, domestic zinc social inventory remained at 7.09 million tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1250 tons to 126225 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased by about 20000 tons in June compared to May, and the monthly average of ore processing fees is expected to increase by 150 yuan/ton. Domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - allocation, hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage [2][3]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at $60, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 1542 tons to 205140 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pure nickel production remained high, nickel bean imports increased in May, and overall demand is weak [4]. - **Opportunity**: Continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: Some steel mills cut production passively since late May, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: This week, lead prices rebounded from a low level. From June 16 - 20, 2025, the LME lead inventory decreased by 3350 tons to 284075 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to be flat in June, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week [6]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. From June 16 - 20, 2025, the LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2175 tons [7][8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, and demand from the solder and terminal electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold long - allocation cautiously in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the basis of different grades increased by 80, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 556 [10]. - **Market Situation**: The overall market start - up increased slightly. The basis strengthened rapidly, and the spot price was strong. It is expected to be under pressure later [10]. - **Long - term Trend**: In the long - term, it will run at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the SMM electric carbon and industrial carbon prices decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2164 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The price decreased this week, with overall inventory accumulation. In the short term, demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week [12]. - **Long - term Trend**: In the medium - long term, the price will oscillate weakly if the operating rate of leading enterprises does not decline significantly [12].