投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【聚酯周报】 原油弱势，芳烃季节性转弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-09-15 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 聚酯：原油增产弱势，芳烃供给逐步回归 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 原油价格下跌，国内PTA装置供给端逐步回归，国内的惠州PTA供给增加，PTA基差走弱，PX与石脑油的价差收缩。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 聚酯下游负荷维持91%左右的水平，聚酯工厂的库存表现乐观。聚酯主要负荷回升集中在瓶片品种，织造端的负荷小幅回升。 | | 库存 | 中性 | PTA的港口库存本周小幅去库1万吨，港口库存继续去库。 | | 基差 | 偏空 | PTA基差小幅走弱，PTA利润依然维持在低位，PTA市场的流动性非常宽松。 | | 利润 | 偏空 | PX与石脑油的价差到2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For copper, with the S232 investigation pending, the US dollar copper market may still siphon copper from other regions, and the copper market will face a tight - balance situation prone to squeezes. After the 232 investigation results are out, the arbitrage window may disappear, and if the copper tariff is below 15%, there may be a reverse flow of copper [1]. - For aluminum, supply has a slight increase, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the inventory is expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and anti - arbitrage opportunities [1]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated upward this week due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and the inventory overseas remains stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - For stainless steel, supply has partial production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has a slight increase. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [6]. - For lead, the price rebounded this week due to speculation. Supply is expected to slightly decrease in July, demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. - For tin, the price fluctuated upward due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by production cuts, demand has a downward trend, and the short - term supply - demand is weak with strong support at the bottom [11]. - For industrial silicon, due to the significant production cut of a leading enterprise, the supply - demand balance turns to de - stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the price increased due to speculation. Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, which will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market situation: The S232 investigation has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, reducing LME and domestic inventories. The price volatility has increased, and the LME cash - 3M spread has widened [1]. - Outlook: Before the S232 investigation results are out, the tight - balance situation will continue. After the results are out, the market logic may reverse [1]. Aluminum - Supply: There is a slight increase in supply, with imports providing an increment from January to May [1]. - Demand: Expected to seasonally weaken in July, with flat supply - demand [1]. - Inventory: Expected to be balanced in July [1]. Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC increased, and the supply is expected to increase by more than 5000 tons in July [2]. - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak in some regions [2]. - Strategy: Short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May [5]. - Demand: Overall weak, with a slight increase in LME premium [5]. - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory decreases slightly [5]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have partial production cuts since late May [6]. - Demand: Mainly for rigid needs [6]. - Inventory: There is a slight increase in inventory in two major regions [6]. Lead - Supply: Scrap battery supply is tight, and the supply is expected to slightly decrease in July [8]. - Demand: Battery inventory is high, and the demand is weak in the off - season [8]. - Price: Expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. Tin - Supply: Myanmar's production resumption needs negotiation, and domestic production has decreased [11]. - Demand: Welding tin demand has limited elasticity, and terminal demand is expected to decline [11]. - Strategy: Hold long positions cautiously in the short - term and consider short positions after the maintenance period [11]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: A leading enterprise has significantly cut production, and the overall supply is expected to decrease [14]. - Demand: The market expectation turns to de - stocking [14]. - Price: Expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase with the复产 of some enterprises [16]. - Demand: Weak, with limited improvement from policies [16]. - Price: Supply surplus will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the S232 investigation pending, the US copper market may continue to attract copper from other regions, leading to a tight - balance situation with low inventories and potential squeezes for both SHFE and LME copper. After the investigation results are out, the market narrative may reverse [1] - Aluminum: Supply has a slight increase, and in July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The market is expected to be balanced in terms of supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1] - Zinc: Zinc prices fluctuated upwards this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening seasonally. The short - term strategy is to short zinc on rebounds and hold long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets [2] - Nickel: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and demand is weak. The short - term fundamentals are average, and opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6] - Stainless Steel: Supply has been reduced since late May, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the overall fundamentals are weak, with prices expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] - Lead: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week, which was due to speculation. The supply in July is expected to slightly decrease, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 [8] - Tin: Tin prices fluctuated upwards this week, driven by commodity sentiment. The supply is disturbed, and demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term, and long - positions can be cautiously held [11] - Industrial Silicon: With significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and in the long - term, it will be mainly based on the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises [14] - Lithium Carbonate: Prices increased due to sentiment speculation this week. The supply is expected to be in surplus next week, putting pressure on prices. However, "anti - involution" policies may drive up sentiment [16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market Concerns: There are concerns about the S232 investigation results, and the NYMEX - LME price spread has widened again [1] - Inventory Situation: By May, over 450,000 tons of electrolytic copper were attracted to the US, causing significant drops in LME and domestic inventories [1] - Price Movement: As LME inventory dropped below 100,000 tons and cancelled warrants soared, copper price volatility rebounded, and the LME cash - 3M spread widened [1] Aluminum - Supply and Demand: Supply increased slightly from January to May, and in July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The market is expected to be balanced [1] - Inventory Outlook: In July, supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and attention should be paid to long - term spreads and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage opportunities in a low - inventory situation [1] Zinc - Price Trend: Zinc prices oscillated upwards this week due to high macro - sentiment [2] - Supply Side: Domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and imported TC rose by 10 dollars/dry ton. In July, some smelters will undergo maintenance, but new capacities in the southwest and central regions will be put into production, with an expected increase of over 5,000 tons of zinc ingots [2] - Demand Side: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is also weak. Some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2] - Strategy: The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds and hold long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets [2] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and nickel bean imports increased in May [6] - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has slightly strengthened [6] - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [6] - Opportunity: Attention can be paid to opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have reduced production passively since late May [7] - Demand: Demand is mainly for rigid needs [7] - Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable [7] - Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have slightly increased, and some exchange warrants have expired and been liquidated [7] - Price Outlook: The overall fundamentals are weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] Lead - Price Movement: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week [8] - Supply Side: Scrap battery recycling volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of concentrates has tightened. TC is in a chaotic state [8] - Demand Side: Battery inventory is high, and the operating rate has declined this week. Consumption is weak in the off - season from April to July [8] - Price Forecast: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and if the price remains above 17,200 due to macro factors, there may be a risk of price - support cycles [8] Tin - Price Trend: Tin prices oscillated upwards this week, driven by commodity sentiment [11] - Supply Side: Myanmar's Wa State needs to negotiate for short - term复产, and domestic smelting profits are inverted, with some production cuts in Jiangxi and difficult operations in Yunnan. Overseas supply disturbances have basically subsided [11] - Demand Side: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and the growth rates of terminal electronics and photovoltaics are expected to decline. Domestic inventory oscillates, and overseas consumption continues to drive down LME inventory [11] - Strategy: Long - positions can be cautiously held in the short term, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - Production Changes: Hoshine Silicon Industry in Xinjiang significantly reduced production, while production in Yunnan slightly increased, and Sichuan's production remained stable [14] - Supply - Demand Balance: Due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14] - Long - Term Outlook: In the long - term, prices will be mainly based on the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises, and attention should be paid to cost reduction due to green - electricity subsidies and falling thermal - power prices [14] Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: Prices increased due to sentiment speculation this week [16] - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, with downstream demand remaining weak. Some smelters have cut production, and high - cost capacities are being cleared [16] - Price Outlook: The supply surplus will lead to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices, but "anti - involution" policies may drive up sentiment [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and is prone to short squeezes. The outcome of the S232 investigation will significantly impact the market. If the copper tariff is below 15%, the global narrative logic of the copper market may reverse [1][2] - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation. Pay attention to demand and consider reverse arbitrage strategies in the context of low inventory [1] - The zinc market maintains a bearish allocation strategy. Continue to hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] - The nickel market has a general short - term fundamental situation. Keep an eye on the opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week. In July, primary supply is expected to slightly decrease while demand is weak [7] - The tin market is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. The long - position strategy can be cautiously held, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [10] - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the price will be based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13] - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face upward pressure on supply and downward pressure on price in the short term. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may drive up sentiment [15] Summary by Metal Copper - Market situation: The S232 investigation has led to a significant decrease in LME and domestic electrolytic copper inventories. The price volatility has increased, and the LME cash - 3M spread has widened [1][2] - Outlook: The situation of low inventory and potential short squeezes will continue. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1][2] Aluminum - Supply and demand: Supply has slightly increased, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July. The supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1] - Strategy: Pay attention to demand and consider reverse arbitrage strategies in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - Price movement: The zinc price has oscillated upward this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment [2] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to increase in July, and demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas [2] - Strategy: Maintain a bearish allocation strategy and continue to hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] Nickel - Supply and demand: Pure nickel production remains high, and demand is weak. Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [5] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - Supply and demand: Supply has decreased due to partial production cuts by steel mills, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [6] - Inventory: There is a slight increase in inventory in Xijiao and Foshan, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired [6] - Outlook: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] Lead - Price movement: The lead price has rebounded from a low level this week, mainly due to speculation on battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warehouse receipts [7] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to slightly decrease in July, and demand is weak [7] - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week [7] Tin - Price movement: The tin price has oscillated upward this week, mainly driven by commodity sentiment [10] - Supply and demand: Supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and demand is weak. The domestic and overseas inventory situations are different [10] - Strategy: Cautiously hold long positions in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [10] Industrial Silicon - Supply: Hoshine Silicon Industry has significantly reduced production, while Yunnan and Sichuan are expected to increase production [13] - Outlook: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the price will be based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term [13] Lithium Carbonate - Price movement: The price has increased due to sentiment speculation this week [15] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is weak [15] - Outlook: The price is expected to face upward pressure on supply and downward pressure on price in the short term, but the "anti - involution" policy may drive up sentiment [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the copper market, due to the uncertain S232 investigation on copper and the anticipation of US copper tariffs, a large amount of electrolytic copper has flowed to the US, leading to low inventory levels in the LME and domestic markets. The copper market is in a tight - balance situation prone to short - squeezes. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July. The supply - demand balance is expected to be flat, with a short - term stable fundamental situation. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated upwards this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase in July, while demand is seasonally weak. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation mindset for zinc and hold long - short positions between domestic and foreign markets [2]. - In the nickel market, supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends overseas and domestically. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, with supply cuts by some steel mills, mainly driven by rigid demand. Inventory has slightly increased, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week, mainly due to speculation on battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warrants. However, actual downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. It is expected that lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in primary supply and weak demand in July [7]. - Tin prices have fluctuated upwards, mainly affected by commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by mining issues, and demand is expected to decline. In the short term, long - positions can be cautiously held, and high - short opportunities after the maintenance period can be considered in the medium - to - long term [10]. - For industrial silicon, due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. In the long term, prices are expected to be anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices have risen due to sentiment speculation. Supply is expected to be excessive in the short term, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices. However, "anti - involution" competition policies may drive sentiment up [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the premium changed by - 13, and the LME inventory decreased by 650 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: The market is worried about the S232 investigation. The anticipation of US copper tariffs has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, resulting in low inventory levels and increased price volatility [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, and the LME inventory increased by 550 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply has increased slightly, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be flat [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 80, and the LME inventory decreased by 1750 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices have fluctuated upwards due to high macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase in July, while demand is seasonally weak [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 288 tons [5]. - **Market Situation**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends overseas and domestically [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan slightly increased [6]. - **Market Situation**: The fundamental situation is weak, with supply cuts by some steel mills and mainly rigid demand [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: Lead prices rebounded from a low level due to speculation, but actual downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. It is expected to fluctuate in a certain range next week [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot import profit decreased by 1572.76, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have fluctuated upwards due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by mining issues, and demand is expected to decline [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 271 [13]. - **Market Situation**: Due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the SMM electric - carbon price increased by 150, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased by 630 [15]. - **Market Situation**: Prices have risen due to sentiment speculation. Supply is expected to be excessive in the short term, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [15].