Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For copper, with the S232 investigation pending, the US dollar copper market may still siphon copper from other regions, and the copper market will face a tight - balance situation prone to squeezes. After the 232 investigation results are out, the arbitrage window may disappear, and if the copper tariff is below 15%, there may be a reverse flow of copper [1]. - For aluminum, supply has a slight increase, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the inventory is expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and anti - arbitrage opportunities [1]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated upward this week due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and the inventory overseas remains stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - For stainless steel, supply has partial production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has a slight increase. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [6]. - For lead, the price rebounded this week due to speculation. Supply is expected to slightly decrease in July, demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. - For tin, the price fluctuated upward due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by production cuts, demand has a downward trend, and the short - term supply - demand is weak with strong support at the bottom [11]. - For industrial silicon, due to the significant production cut of a leading enterprise, the supply - demand balance turns to de - stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the price increased due to speculation. Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, which will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market situation: The S232 investigation has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, reducing LME and domestic inventories. The price volatility has increased, and the LME cash - 3M spread has widened [1]. - Outlook: Before the S232 investigation results are out, the tight - balance situation will continue. After the results are out, the market logic may reverse [1]. Aluminum - Supply: There is a slight increase in supply, with imports providing an increment from January to May [1]. - Demand: Expected to seasonally weaken in July, with flat supply - demand [1]. - Inventory: Expected to be balanced in July [1]. Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC increased, and the supply is expected to increase by more than 5000 tons in July [2]. - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak in some regions [2]. - Strategy: Short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May [5]. - Demand: Overall weak, with a slight increase in LME premium [5]. - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory decreases slightly [5]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have partial production cuts since late May [6]. - Demand: Mainly for rigid needs [6]. - Inventory: There is a slight increase in inventory in two major regions [6]. Lead - Supply: Scrap battery supply is tight, and the supply is expected to slightly decrease in July [8]. - Demand: Battery inventory is high, and the demand is weak in the off - season [8]. - Price: Expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. Tin - Supply: Myanmar's production resumption needs negotiation, and domestic production has decreased [11]. - Demand: Welding tin demand has limited elasticity, and terminal demand is expected to decline [11]. - Strategy: Hold long positions cautiously in the short - term and consider short positions after the maintenance period [11]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: A leading enterprise has significantly cut production, and the overall supply is expected to decrease [14]. - Demand: The market expectation turns to de - stocking [14]. - Price: Expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase with the复产 of some enterprises [16]. - Demand: Weak, with limited improvement from policies [16]. - Price: Supply surplus will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]

| 变化 | -20 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | 2025/06/26 | -1301.91 | -1273.21 | 140 | -2 | 119850 | 30775 | | 2025/06/27 | -1338.95 | -1398.26 | 140 | -0 | 119225 | 27900 | | 2025/06/30 | -1440.41 | -1376.43 | 140 | -10 | 117475 | 27150 | | 2025/07/01 | -1256.15 | -1305.67 | 140 | -19 | 114900 | 25600 | | 2025/07/02 | -1028.32 | -1131.52 | 140 | -22 | 113425 | 24225 | | 变化 | 227.83 | 174.15 | 0 | ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/02 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 2025/06/27 105 1572 81550 25346 -2612.60 54.46 37.0 58.0 240.67 91275 33625 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 变化 70 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/01 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/24 35 621 100814 22425 -1604.62 112.67 38.0 59.0 150.85 94675 40150 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 2025/06/27 105 1572 81550 25346 -2612.60 54.46 37.0 58.0 240.67 91275 33625 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 变化 25 - ...