端侧设备和端侧AI生态产业
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中线拿稳、短线勿追!“慢牛”心态,结构更重要
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-09-01 04:48
Group 1 - The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates may strengthen a weak dollar environment, catalyzing a new round of growth in resource commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, which could accelerate the performance of the non-ferrous sector [2] - The upcoming product launches from Apple and META in September, focusing on edge AI and AR glasses, may lead to a sustainable trend in edge devices and AI ecosystems, making the consumer electronics sector, especially the Apple supply chain, worth watching [2] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to reveal three clues: industries with high capital expenditure intensity and signs of marginal reduction; industries showing self-discipline or policy implementation; and industries relying on quotas to continuously improve profit margins [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 3,800 points, indicating that the market may not stop here and could reach new highs [3] - The market's upward momentum is supported by the accumulation of profit-making effects and continuous inflow of incremental funds, validating the logic of upward recommendations based on overcoming loss resistance [5] - The market is likely to experience structural rotation, with active trading and policy expectations providing support, while the focus remains on growth sectors that have shown high prosperity in the first half of the year [6] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is high, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and significant upcoming events, leading to increased inflow of incremental funds [7] - The market is characterized by a "healthy bull" environment, where structural rotation among sectors is crucial for sustained growth, with a focus on technology growth sectors [8] - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is increasing its presence in the A-share market, contributing to the stability of the current "slow bull" market [9] Group 4 - The market is expected to primarily exhibit a volatile trend, with limited space for strong continuation, indicating a preference for structural rotation rather than a broad market rally [10] - The focus on defensive dividend sectors is increasing, as they may provide stability amid tightening funds and pressure from major shareholders [11] - The "slow bull" market is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, with a focus on maintaining a balanced approach between financial and technology sectors [13][14]
中信证券:9月配置继续聚焦资源、创新药、消费电子、化工、游戏和军工
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-31 08:41
Core Insights - The report highlights key events and investment clues to watch in September, particularly focusing on the potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may strengthen the weak dollar environment and catalyze resource commodities, especially precious metals and copper [1] - The upcoming product launches from Apple and META are expected to drive a new wave of sustainable trends in edge devices and AI ecosystems, with a particular emphasis on the consumer electronics sector, especially the Apple supply chain [1] - The report identifies three lines of clues regarding the trend of "anti-involution," including industries with high capital expenditure intensity showing signs of marginal reduction, sectors demonstrating industry self-discipline or policy implementation, and industries that rely on quotas to continuously enhance profit margins [1] - An increase in innovative drug catalysts is anticipated in September, with recent technology shifts clearing out short-term speculative investments, suggesting that innovative drugs may continue to rise after this adjustment [1] - The report recommends focusing on resource sectors, innovative drugs, consumer electronics, chemicals, gaming, and military industries for investment in September [1]