每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 8月25日，A股市场主要指数普遍上涨。成交额放量至3.18万亿元，创历史第二高，为连续9个交易 日超2万亿元。8月26日早盘，A股集体低开后涨跌分化，表征核心龙头资产的MSCI中国A50互联互通指 数小幅回调，现跌约0.5%，成分股牧原股份、万华化学等领涨。相关ETF方面，A50ETF（159601）昨 日获资金净流入1016万元。 东吴证券认为，企业盈利复苏和弱美元的叙事均将在9月进入关键的验证窗口期。叙事短期可能有 波折，但中期确定性较强，因此我们对市场依然持乐观态度，A股慢牛趋势不改。市场依然会围绕产业 趋势强劲的板块进行交易，主线方向"强者恒强"。这一方面是因为经济新旧动能切换时期，景气有明显 分化；另一方面从增量资金来看，散户入市仍处于初步阶段，机构资金依然有较强的定价能力、主导主 线趋势行情。而随着行情演绎， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-08-26 美元指数偏弱提振，基本金属获得支撑 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨询号：Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号：F03108013 投资咨询号：Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号：F03108000 投资咨询号：Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号：F03141853 投资咨询号：Z0022534 桂伶 从业资格号：F03114737 投资咨询号：Z0022425 张远 从业资格号：F03147334 投资咨询号：Z0022750 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内 容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种 相关特性及潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或上市公司的相关推荐，不构成对任何主体进行或不进行某项行为的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积飘红，燃料油和焦煤涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20250826 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 221/221/221 181/181/181 基 础 色 辅 助 色 210/10/16 87/87/87 227/82/4 | 金融市场涨跌幅 | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨 | 板块 | 品种 | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 现价 | 品种 | 现代 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 2025年8月25日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 部 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 核心观点 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 最近，资本市场继续高歌猛进，风险偏好乐观亢奋，降息交易总体主导市场，风险资产多数收涨，波动率VIX指数大跌在 历史低位运行。海外，通胀的强韧与美联储官员的动荡，鲍威尔的言论不断扰动着降息预期，9月降息几乎板上钉钉，市场开 始关注后续降息的幅度和速度。全球主要股市多数收涨，美股再创历史新高，A股强劲上扬突破3800创出10年新高，BDI指数明 显下挫，美债收益率与美元指数联袂下挫，非美货币整体受益，大宗商品走势分化，油价反弹支撑能源板块并带动国际定价商 品表现相对偏强，CRB周度收涨，黄金与铜联袂走高；国内，"反内卷"行情有所降温，基 ...

产业趋势引领板块轮动格局 弱美元成为A股开启行情的重要触发因素。6月末美元跌破前低后，海外流动性边际转向宽松。人民币 资产吸引力显著提升。中国企业下游需求对全球制造业景气更为敏感。这种景气预期上修驱动A股8月 加速上行。 A股有望形成"股市慢涨—信心增强—资金流入"的良性循环。市场依然围绕产业趋势强劲的板块进行交 易。主线方向呈现"强者恒强"特征。美联储主席在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会释放宽松信号。美元指数长 期走弱周期下，全球资本流向重塑为A股提供进一步支撑。 沪指时隔十年再次站上3800点关口，A股市场展现出强劲上涨动能。成交额连续8个交易日突破2万亿 元，创下历史新纪录。市场热度持续攀升，投资者风险偏好明显回升。这轮行情的核心驱动力来自增量 流动性的持续注入。制造业景气度回升为资金流向股市提供重要背景。企业盈利迎来改善拐点，产业趋 势和公司业绩成为行情主要线索。 高净值资金成为市场主要推动力 本轮行情中，高净值人群及企业客户参与度显著提升。传统行业积累财富的高净值个人投资者将目光投 向权益市场。他们寻求布局战略性新兴产业的投资机会。面向高净值客户的私募产品热度远超公募产 品。7月私募备案规模达793亿元，环 ...

上证指数日K线图 ■机构展望 沪指站上3800点 A股有望形成良性资金循环 机构认为，市场将从更关注短期动量，向中期视角、投资性价比回归。在基本面积极因素进一步累积、 主线板块线索更加清晰后，本轮行情才能走得"更远、更高、更好" ◎记者汪友若 上周，A股市场持续走强，沪指站上3800点，成交额连续8个交易日突破2万亿元，资金风险偏好持续回 升。 机构普遍认为，驱动指数上行的核心是增量流动性。同时投资者应该意识到，制造业景气度回升、企业 盈利迎来改善拐点是驱动资金流向股市的重要背景。本轮行情从起步到加速，其核心线索均围绕产业趋 势和公司业绩。 展望后市，机构普遍认为，新旧资金接力，A股有望形成"股市慢涨—信心增强—资金流入"的良性循 环。 高净值人群或是主要增量 围绕产业趋势强劲的板块进行交易 展望后市，机构普遍认为，A股有望形成"股市慢涨—信心增强—资金流入"的良性循环。行业表现上， 市场依然会围绕产业趋势强劲的板块进行交易，主线方向"强者恒强"。 中国银河证券表示，日前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔释放宽松信号。美元指数长 期走弱周期下，全球资本流向重塑将为A股市场向上提供进一步支撑。 在申万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent influx of incremental funds into the A-share market, highlighting the active participation of institutional investors compared to retail investors, and the overall market sentiment towards potential growth opportunities [2][3]. Group 1: Retail Investor Participation - Recent grassroots research indicates a moderate increase in retail investor accounts, primarily among younger generations, but no significant surge in online account openings has been observed [4][5]. - The current participation level of retail investors is estimated at around 120 points on a scale where last year's peak was 200-300 points, indicating a cautious approach rather than a rush to enter the market [4][5]. - Overall, retail investor enthusiasm remains subdued, with new account openings in July at 1.96 million, similar to April levels, suggesting a lack of concentrated inflow from outside investors [5][6]. Group 2: Active Funds Driving the Market - Institutional investors are identified as the main drivers of recent market uptrends, with a notable increase in institutional account openings compared to retail accounts [7][8]. - High-net-worth investors, including private equity and leveraged funds, are actively participating, with daily inflows of leveraged funds averaging 5.5 billion since July [7][8]. - The private equity sector has seen significant growth, with an average stock long position of 61.1% in June, reflecting increased confidence and investment activity [8]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign capital is increasingly optimistic about the Chinese stock market, with global hedge funds rapidly buying Chinese stocks, primarily driven by long positions [9][10]. - South Korean investors have significantly increased their trading volume in Chinese stocks, with cumulative transactions reaching $5.514 billion by the end of July, surpassing last year's total [9][10]. - Despite growing interest, there remains a divergence in foreign investors' strategies regarding Chinese assets, with some expressing caution despite increased attention [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that while A-shares have seen significant index increases and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion, the influx of new retail investors remains moderate, with institutional investors, particularly private equity, being the primary drivers of market activity [2][6]. Group 1: Retail Investor Participation - Recent grassroots surveys show a mild increase in retail investor account openings, primarily among younger generations, but no significant surge in online account openings through platforms like Alipay [3][4]. - The current enthusiasm of retail investors is described as cautious, with a scoring system indicating a participation level of around 120 points, compared to much higher levels seen in previous market peaks [3][4]. - Data from East Wu Securities indicates that new retail investor accounts have not shown a concentrated influx, with July's new accounts at 1.96 million, similar to April's figures, suggesting a lack of aggressive market entry by retail investors [4][5]. Group 2: Institutional Investor Activity - Institutional investors have shown a marked increase in account openings, surpassing personal accounts, with private equity and high-net-worth individuals being particularly active [2][6]. - The number of new institutional accounts has reached historical highs, correlating positively with the issuance of equity funds, indicating a potential "institutional bull market" on the horizon [6][7]. - Recent data shows that leveraged funds have been actively entering the market, with an average daily inflow of 5.5 billion since July, and private equity positions have increased significantly [6][7]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in A-shares has been increasing, with global hedge funds buying Chinese stocks at a rapid pace, primarily driven by bullish sentiment [8][9]. - Korean investors have significantly increased their trading volume in Chinese stocks, with cumulative transactions reaching $5.514 billion by the end of July, surpassing the previous year's total [8][9]. - Despite the growing interest from foreign investors, there remains a divergence in investment strategies, with some institutions still cautious about diversifying into Chinese assets [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics in A-shares and H-shares, highlighting the differences in investor behavior and market performance between the two, driven by factors such as low interest rates, external economic conditions, and structural imbalances in capital supply and demand [1][6][20]. Market Performance - A-shares continue to show strong performance with nearly 60% of stocks rising, while the overall market capitalization remains above 2.5 trillion [1]. - The financing balance reached a net buy of 39.3 billion, marking the third highest single-day net buy since September 24, indicating strong market enthusiasm [2]. - The brokerage sector saw significant inflows, with the two largest securities ETFs net buying over 1.1 billion, leading to a rally in brokerage stocks [4]. A-shares vs H-shares - A-shares are characterized by a strong influx of capital, leading to bullish market sentiment, while H-shares are experiencing volatility with less decisive capital inflows [5][6]. - The net buying of southbound funds in H-shares was significantly lower at 1.4 billion compared to the previous record of 36 billion, indicating a retreat of short-term trading funds [4][6]. Main Investment Themes - The first main theme is the unprecedented low interest rate environment, which is driving capital into the stock market. Key interest rates, such as the one-year fixed deposit rate, have fallen below 1% [9][10]. - The second theme is the external economic environment, particularly the decline of the US dollar index, which has positively influenced global risk assets, including A-shares [12][14]. - The third theme is the structural imbalance in capital supply and demand, leading to overheating in certain sectors like small-cap stocks and convertible bonds [20][21]. Company Earnings - Several key companies in the Hong Kong market reported earnings that exceeded expectations, with Xiaomi's second-quarter operating profit reaching 13.4 billion, significantly above the forecast of 10.4 billion [27][28]. - The performance of major internet companies like Tencent and Xiaomi remains strong, contributing to the growth of related ETFs [28]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests monitoring the trends related to the three main themes to gauge future market movements, particularly the low interest rate environment, external economic conditions, and regulatory attitudes towards capital markets [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for each metal, the following outlooks are provided: - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: High - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [8] - Aluminum: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Range - bound oscillation in the short term, with potential for spread recovery later [12] - Zinc: Oscillating in the short term, with a potential decline in the medium - to - long term [14] - Lead: Oscillating [16] - Nickel: Wide - range oscillation in the short term, hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21] - Stainless Steel: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [23] - Tin: Oscillating, with potential for increased volatility in August [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs attention. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening, and the risk of weakening demand is increasing, which exerts negative pressure on base metal prices. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and the supply disturbances of copper, aluminum, and tin still support base metal prices. It is recommended to short copper and zinc on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Sino - US tariff suspension is extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply constraint remains, but the demand is marginally weakening. The follow - up focus is on the tariff implementation [6][7]. - **Alumina**: Shanxi Province adjusts the registration authority of some mineral species, and the alumina futures price rises significantly. In the short term, the futures price is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues, with high volatility. The fundamental situation is relatively weak [8]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the consumption quality, and aluminum prices continue to rise. The short - term supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - **Zinc**: The price of the black series rebounds again, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply is loosening, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - **Lead**: The cost still provides support, and lead prices are oscillating. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the demand is slightly affected by the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the futures price, and the fundamental situation is marginally weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price goes up. The cost has increased recently, and the follow - up focus is on the demand during the peak season and inventory changes [23]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply is tight, but the demand is marginally weakening in the second half of the year. The price is expected to oscillate, with potential for increased volatility in August [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals in this section, such as copper, alumina, aluminum, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring content.