Core Viewpoint - The current surge in energy storage cell prices is driven by rising raw material costs and strong downstream demand, indicating a structural imbalance in supply and demand [23][24]. Price Trends - As of July 24, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 70,450 yuan/ton, marking a 17% increase from the low point on June 23 [1][2]. - Lithium carbonate futures also saw a significant rise, with prices exceeding 77,000 yuan/ton, the highest since mid-March [2]. - The average price of 280Ah energy storage cells has fluctuated, with a recent recovery to 0.3 yuan/Wh after dipping to 0.299 yuan/Wh [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The energy storage cell market is experiencing a supply shortage, with some manufacturers notifying price increases of 5-15% for new orders, reflecting the latest raw material costs [9][10]. - The price adjustments are primarily aimed at new contracts, while existing contracts remain stable, indicating a focus on maintaining contractual obligations [9][10]. - The surge in energy storage cell prices is seen as a necessary correction following a period of significant overcapacity in the market [10][12]. Policy Impact - Recent policy changes, including the revision of the Price Law, are expected to influence market dynamics and support price increases across various sectors, including energy storage [1][10]. - The ongoing "supply-side reform" is facilitating the exit of inefficient production capacities, thereby optimizing supply structures [10][12]. Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that energy storage cell prices may maintain a low level with potential for slight increases in the second half of 2025, driven by ongoing demand and cost pressures [17][18]. - The energy storage system prices are expected to follow the trends of cell prices, albeit with a lag, and will likely experience moderate increases [17][18]. - The market is anticipated to shift from a price war to a value-driven competition, emphasizing quality over low-cost strategies [19][22][24]. Competitive Landscape - Smaller system integrators may face challenges due to rising costs, while larger firms with robust supply chains and quality-focused strategies are likely to thrive [19][20]. - Companies that can innovate and maintain a complete technology chain from cell production to system integration will gain a competitive edge [20][21]. - The industry is moving towards a more rational pricing strategy, with calls for sustainable pricing mechanisms to avoid detrimental low-cost bidding practices [21][22].

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In the past week (20250707 - 20250713), US stocks declined, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index rose. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.08%, -0.31%, and -1.02% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 1.83%; the Hang Seng Index changed by 0.93% [2]. - A - shares generally rose, with both growth and blue - chip stocks increasing. The wind All - A Index rose 1.71%. Different indices such as the CSI A100, CSI 300, etc., had varying degrees of increase. In terms of sector styles, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, and the North Securities 50 Index changed by 0.41% [3]. - Most industries rose, with Hong Kong brokers, rare earths, real estate, and photovoltaic leading the gains. Among 30 CITIC industries, only 3 declined and 27 rose. The leading industries were comprehensive finance and real estate with a weekly increase of over 6%. ETFs related to Hong Kong securities, rare earths, etc., also had a weekly increase of over 6% [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Conditions - In the past week (20250707 - 20250713), the price of interest - rate bonds fell, and the yield curve flattened. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.25% compared to July 4, 2025, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased by 2.20 BP to 1.6653% [5]. - The capital price increased slightly, and the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal. As of July 11, 2025, R007 was 1.5086%, up 2.05 BP from July 4, 2025, and DR007 was 1.4718%, up 4.96 BP. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in the past week [6]. - The bond - market leverage level increased. The current 7 - day capital cost is lower than the 5 - year treasury bond yield. The bank - to - bank pledged repurchase trading volume (5 - day average) increased from 7.60 trillion yuan on July 4, 2025, to 8.21 trillion yuan on July 11, 2025 [7]. - US bond yields increased, and the curve became steeper. As of July 11, 2025, the 10 - year US bond yield increased by 8 BP to 4.43% compared to July 4, 2025. Except for the 6 - month maturity variety, other maturity yields increased, with long - term yields rising more [8][9]. Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar appreciated, and the price of gold showed internal and external differentiation. In the past week (20250707 - 20250713), the US dollar index rose 0.91%. The US dollar appreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate increased. The external gold market rose, while the domestic gold price fell [10]. Group 4: Trade and Market Outlook - Trump's threat to impose tariffs on August 1 is considered a means to increase bargaining chips in trade negotiations. The final implementation or postponement of the tariff increase is uncertain. The US Commerce Secretary will meet with Chinese officials in early August to discuss trade issues [11]. - A - share investors' risk preference is expected to remain high. Trump's tariff threats do not involve China, which is beneficial for A - share investors' risk preference. The report continues to be optimistic about structural opportunities such as the second supply - side reform, rare earths, etc. In the bond market, interest - rate bond yields may continue to fluctuate narrowly at a low level, and gold in the commodity market may benefit from the uncertainty brought by tariff threats [12].