国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2026/2/3 有色板块动量截面分化扩大 商品本周空头占比抬升,主要表现贵金 属和有色板块因子强度大幅下降,黑色 和农产品板块受趋势带动影响偏弱。目 前截面偏强的板块是黑色,截面偏弱的 是有色。具体来看,黄金时序出现动量 反转的迹象,逐步企稳,白银的持仓量 大幅下降。有色板块短周期动量下降, 期限结构分化收窄,锡和镍截面偏弱。 CTA 黑色板块时序动量边际小幅回升,截面 上螺纹偏空焦炭偏强。能化板块短周期 动量截面分化收窄。农产品方面,短周 期动量没有发生明显反转,持仓量维持 中性以下。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 供給 | -0.15 | 0.84 | | 需求 | -0.45 | -0.44 | | 库存 | -0.76 | 0.18 | | 价差 | 0.61 | 0.83 | | 大类累加 | -0.58 | 0.20 | 用 醇 国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 玻 | | | | 铁 | 策略净值方面,上周各因子收益为0,本 | | | 净值曲线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities remained basically unchanged this week. The factor strength of precious metals remained high, while that of non - ferrous and agricultural products decreased. The precious metals sector was relatively strong, and the agricultural and chemical sectors were relatively weak. The internal differentiation of the agricultural products sector widened [2]. - For different commodities, the performance of various factors and comprehensive signals varied. For example, in methanol, the demand factor weakened, the inventory factor increased, and the synthetic factor strengthened, with a bullish comprehensive signal this week. In iron ore, the comprehensive signal changed from bearish to neutral, and different fundamental factors had different trends [4][13]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No information about industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Strategy Net Value: The demand factor weakened by 0.07%, the inventory factor increased by 0.12%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.05%. The comprehensive signal this week was bullish. - Fundamental Factors: The arrival volume of imported methanol decreased, with a slightly bullish supply; the capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefin enterprises decreased, and the acetic acid device operation increased, with a neutral demand; methanol ports and inland areas both destocked last week, with a bullish inventory; the bullish strength of the methanol regional spread factor weakened, with a neutral spread [4]. Iron Ore - Strategy Net Value: The supply factor decreased by 0.08%, the inventory factor increased by 0.67%, and the comprehensive factor strengthened by 0.2%. The comprehensive signal changed from bearish to neutral this week. - Fundamental Factors: Shipments from BHP and Vale increased, and the arrival volume at northern ports rose, with a weakening bullish feedback on the supply side and a neutral signal; the consumption of sintering ore powder by steel mills and the daily port clearance volume both increased slightly, with an enhanced bullish feedback on the demand side and a bullish signal; the inventory of sintering ore powder in steel mills accumulated, and the average available days of imported iron ore increased, with an enhanced bearish signal on the inventory side; the freight rate decreased, and the spot price center moved down, with an enhanced bearish feedback on the spread side and a neutral signal [10][13]. Aluminum - Strategy Net Value: The demand factor strengthened by 0.38, the inventory factor decreased by 0.13%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.45%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.18%. The comprehensive signal remained bearish this week. - Fundamental Factors: The spot price of silver increased, and the supply - side signal changed from neutral to bearish; the LME lead and SHFE warehouse receipts both accumulated, with an enhanced bearish feedback on the inventory side and a neutral signal; the lead refined - scrap price spread narrowed, and the bearish signal strength of the spread side weakened [13]. Float Glass - Strategy Net Value: The supply factor decreased by 0.46%, the demand factor weakened by 0.49%, the profit factor strengthened by 1.07%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%. The comprehensive signal was bearish this week. - Fundamental Factors: The operating rate of float glass enterprises remained the same as last week, with a neutral supply; the inventory of glass production enterprises continued to decrease, with an increased bullish strength on the inventory side; the spot price of Hubei glass released a bearish signal, with a bearish spread; the daily after - tax gross profit loss of pipeline - gas - made float glass intensified, with a continued bearish profit [15]. 4. Factor Performance and Returns Overall Factor Returns | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | This Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.00 (in some cases - 0.46, - 0.08) | Ranging from - 0.36 to 0.56 | | Demand | - 0.07 (in some cases - 0.49) | Ranging from - 0.88 to 1.25 | | Inventory | 0.12 (in some cases 0.00, 0.67) | Ranging from - 0.21 to 1.45 | | Spread | 0.00 | Ranging from - 0.26 to 0.82 | | Profit | 1.07 | 1.82 | | Grand Total | 0.05 (in some cases - 0.32, 0.20) | Ranging from - 0.36 to 0.72 |[3][7][10] Factor Performance by Sector | Sector | Momentum Time - Series | Momentum Cross - Section | Term Structure | Position Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | - 0.08 | | Non - ferrous | 0.05 | - 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | Energy and Chemical | - 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.69 | | Agricultural Products | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.41 | - 0.19 | | Stock Index | - 0.71 | 0.46 | - 0.63 | 1.06 | | Precious Metals | 0.12 | | | 0.88 |[5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Research Institute: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] 1. Overall Commodity Market Conditions - The commodity market is currently dominated by short - term signals this week, with the factor intensity of the energy and chemical sector decreasing, and the black and agricultural product sectors showing an upward trend. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in the cross - section, while the energy sector is relatively weak. [4] - Gold's time - series momentum has declined, the trading volume of silver has changed little, and the divergence at both ends of the cross - section has narrowed. [4] 2. Sector - Specific Analysis Non - ferrous Sector - The position - holding factor of the non - ferrous sector has increased marginally, the divergence of cross - sectional momentum has narrowed, tin is strong, and alumina is weak in the cross - section. [4] - The non - ferrous sector has a time - series momentum of - 0.13, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.54, a term structure of 0.99, and a position - holding weight of 1.1. [7] Black Sector - The position - holding volume of coking coal and coke in the black sector remains low, but the short - term momentum in the time - series has rebounded. [4] - The black sector has a time - series momentum of - 0.42, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.18, a term structure of 0.29, and a position - holding weight of 0.79. [7] Energy Sector - The short - term momentum factor of the energy sector has declined, and the chemical sector is at the strong end of the cross - section. [4] - The energy sector has a time - series momentum of 0.02, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.74, a term structure of - 0.6, and a position - holding weight of 0.06. [7] Agricultural Product Sector - The cross - sectional divergence of oilseeds and meals has narrowed, and the long - term momentum of soybean oil is lower than that of soybean meal. [4] - The agricultural product sector has a time - series momentum of - 0.09, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.05, a term structure of 0.17, and a position - holding weight of - 0.16. [7] Precious Metal Sector - The precious metal sector has a time - series momentum of 0.37 and a position - holding weight of - 1.07. [7] Equity Index Sector - The equity index sector has a cross - sectional momentum of 0.49, a term structure of 0.68, and a position - holding weight of 2.15. [7] 3. Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors Analysis Methanol - Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.02%, the demand factor increased by 0.03%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.38%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short - term. [6] - The import arrival volume of methanol releases a short - term signal, the supply side is neutral to bearish; the raw material procurement volume of traditional downstream manufacturers has decreased, the demand side is bearish; the port inventory has decreased month - on - month, the inventory side has turned neutral; the Inner Mongolia - Shandong regional spread factor of methanol releases a long - term signal, and the spread side is neutral to bullish. [6] Float Glass - Last week, the inventory factor increased by 0.16%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.13%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. [10] - The capacity utilization rate of float glass enterprises is flat compared with last week, the supply side is neutral; the transaction area of commercial housing in second - tier cities has increased, the demand side is neutral to bullish; the inventory of Chinese float glass enterprises has increased from a decrease, the bullish strength of the inventory side has weakened and turned neutral; the loss of producing float glass from thermal coal has increased slightly, and the profit side is neutral to bearish. [10] Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.11%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.11%, and the comprehensive factor decreased by 0.06%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned bullish. [11][13] - The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil and the arrival volume at Tianjin Port have all decreased, and the supply - side signal has turned from bearish to bullish. The consumption volume of imported sintering ore powder by steel mills and the proportion of lump ore in the furnace have increased, the bearish feedback on the demand side has weakened, and the signal has turned neutral. The inventory of iron ore at major ports across the country has accumulated, the bullish feedback on the inventory side has weakened, and the signal remains neutral. The freight rate and spot price have increased slightly, the spread side has turned to bullish feedback, and the signal remains neutral. [13] Shanghai Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.06%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.76%, the inventory factor increased by 0.83%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.7%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.56%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned neutral. [13] - The price of domestic lead concentrates from SMM has decreased, the proportion of waste battery prices in the price of recycled refined lead has increased, and the supply - side signal has turned bullish. The cumulative registered and non - registered warehouse receipts of SHFE futures have increased, the bearish feedback on the inventory side has further strengthened, and the signal remains bearish. The spread between the near and far months of LME lead has widened, and the spread - side signal has turned bullish. [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - **Title**: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - **Date**: September 23, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly this week. The factor intensities of energy and agricultural products declined, while the black sector rose. The precious metals sector was strong in the cross - section, and the energy and agricultural products sectors were weak [3]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different factors showed different trends last week, and the comprehensive signals were different for various commodities. The fundamental factors also presented different characteristics for different commodities [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sector Metals - **Black Sector**: The momentum factors of coking coal and coke increased marginally, and the term structure of rebar was stronger than that of iron ore [3]. - **Non - ferrous Sector**: The position factor of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, and copper was strong in the cross - section [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold remained unchanged, and the momentum of silver continued to rise marginally with an expanding internal difference [3]. Energy and Chemicals - The cross - sectional momentum differentiation of the energy and chemical sector narrowed, and soda ash was weak in the cross - section [3]. Agricultural Products - The short - cycle momentum factors of soybean oil and palm oil remained low, but the position increased marginally. The time - series momentum of agricultural products declined [3]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.18%, the spread factor decreased by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.14%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned to long. The supply, demand, and spread signals turned to long, and the inventory signal turned to short [5]. - **Shanghai Lead**: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.02%, the demand factor decreased by 0.23%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor was flat compared with the previous week. This week, the comprehensive signal remained short. The supply signal remained neutral, the inventory signal turned to short, and the spread signal turned from long to short [5]. - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.28%, the demand factor weakened by 0.02%, the inventory factor increased by 0.40%, the spread factor increased by 0.01%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal was short. The supply side was neutral, the demand side turned to long, the inventory side remained short, and the spread side was short [3]. - **Float Glass**: Last week, the returns of major factors were flat compared with the previous week. This week, the comprehensive signal was long. The supply side remained neutral, the demand side was neutral, the inventory side was long, the profit side was slightly long, and the spread side was slightly short [3].