Core Viewpoint - China Lesso (02128) experienced a significant stock price increase, rising over 7% in early trading, attributed to favorable government policies and strong performance in its pipeline business [1] Group 1: Government Policy and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to construct and renovate over 700,000 kilometers of underground pipelines during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with new investment needs exceeding 5 trillion yuan [1] - The enhanced debt policy is expected to alleviate government financial pressure, allowing for accelerated progress in municipal engineering projects [1] Group 2: Company Performance - China Lesso's pipeline business has shown a successful sales transformation, with rapid expansion in non-real estate and non-South China markets, particularly in the agricultural sector [1] - The company has effectively managed risks associated with receivables from high-risk real estate firms, with over 75% of receivables adequately provisioned [1] - The company's dynamic PE ratio has decreased to around 4x, influenced by its Hong Kong stock market presence, while its capital expenditure remains manageable despite underutilized capacity [1]

Group 1 - The company aims to focus on its strategic goals of specializing in pipeline transportation, expanding urban gas markets, and optimizing its public listing [1] - The company plans to increase pipeline construction efforts to enhance resource procurement pathways [1] - The company intends to actively connect with new users and deepen its engagement in regional urban gas markets to improve market competitiveness [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance remains under pressure, awaiting signs of a bottoming out [6] - The company reported a revenue of 2.078 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11.33%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 271 million yuan, down 20.25% year-on-year [8] - The PVC segment showed a counter-trend increase in gross margin, attributed to government policies boosting market demand for pipeline construction [8] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in profitability as price wars in the plastic pipeline industry ease, supported by a high dividend payout ratio [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 6.378 billion yuan in 2023, 6.267 billion yuan in 2024, 6.612 billion yuan in 2025, 7.253 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.996 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -8.27%, -1.75%, 5.51%, 9.70%, and 10.24% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.432 billion yuan in 2023, 953 million yuan in 2024, 996 million yuan in 2025, 1.092 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.201 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 10.40%, -33.49%, 4.59%, 9.63%, and 9.97% respectively [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.90 yuan in 2023, 0.60 yuan in 2024, 0.63 yuan in 2025, 0.69 yuan in 2026, and 0.75 yuan in 2027 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 25.61% in 2023, 18.71% in 2024, 19.07% in 2025, 20.35% in 2026, and 21.74% in 2027 [7]