Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "relatively strong", and for treasury bond futures is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market was volatile and differentiated yesterday, with the technology sector falling again. The Wind All A index dropped 0.44%, and the trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index declined 1.09%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.86%, while the SSE 50 index rose 0.59% and the SSE 300 index increased 0.26%. The resurgence of Sino-US trade disputes may impact the index in the short term, but there are still many uncertainties. Before the important meeting on October 20, the index may be in an adjustment phase. Some domestic securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratio of some stocks from 60% to 0, which may affect the valuation of technology stocks if leveraged funds leave in the short term. However, the long-term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, which remain unchanged. The short-term decline in IV may be a buying opportunity, and small positions can be used to layout out-of-the-money call options for November. Domestically, the Politburo meeting in September announced that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in Beijing on October 20, and the market has high expectations for the meeting content [1] - Treasury bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract up 0.42%, the 10-year main contract up 0.06%, the 5-year main contract down 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01%. The central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. There were 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan. In the inter-bank market, the weighted average rate of DR001 rose 0.01bp to 1.3139%, and DR007 rose 0.55bp to 1.4225%. In the exchange repurchase market, the weighted average rate of GC001 fell 13.98bp to 1.3906%, and GC007 fell 1.29bp to 1.4754%. With the central bank's support, the liquidity situation has marginally eased. The escalation of the Sino-US tariff war has increased risk aversion, and treasury bonds are expected to perform strongly next week. However, the central bank did not restart treasury bond trading in September, and the expectation of monetary policy interest rate cuts has cooled, along with the increase in quasi-fiscal tools, so treasury bonds lack the impetus for significant upward movement [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the technology sector weakening. Sino-US trade disputes and the adjustment of margin conversion ratios may impact the market in the short term, but long-term policy expectations remain positive. Small positions can be used to buy out-of-the-money call options for November [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures had different performances, and the central bank's operations led to a marginal easing of liquidity. The escalation of the tariff war increased risk aversion, but treasury bonds lack the momentum for significant upward movement [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.72%, IF increased 0.30%, IC dropped 1.10%, and IM declined 0.96% [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 index rose 0.59%, the SSE 300 index increased 0.26%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.86%, and the CSI 1000 index declined 1.09% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.02%, TF dropped 0.02%, T rose 0.03%, and TL increased 0.33% [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year treasury bonds increased slightly, while the 30-year treasury bond yield decreased [3] 3. Market News - A Federal Reserve governor suggested a 50-basis-point interest rate cut, but the actual cut is expected to be 25 basis points. Tariffs may cause inflation, but it has not shown up yet. The expected economic growth rate in 2025 is about 2% [4][5][6] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts [7][8][9][11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter-period spreads, cross-variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][15][18][20] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the middle rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency exchange rates [22][23][24][26][28][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "Bullish", and for treasury bond futures is "Sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, affected by weekend trade dispute news, the A-share market opened significantly lower and closed slightly down. The long - term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, which remain unchanged so far. Short - term IV decline may be a buying opportunity, and one can allocate a small position in November out - of - the - money call options. Before the important meeting on October 20, the index may be in an adjustment phase. If leveraged funds leave the market in the short term, it may affect the valuation of technology stocks [1] - For treasury bonds, the central bank's support has led to a marginal loosening of the money market, and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war has increased risk - aversion sentiment, so treasury bonds will be strong next week. However, due to the cooling of policy interest - rate cut expectations and the intensification of quasi - fiscal tools, treasury bonds lack the impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Affected by trade disputes, A - share market indices such as Wind All A, CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 all declined. Short - term trade disputes may impact the index, but long - term momentum depends on internal policies. The adjustment of margin conversion ratios by some domestic brokers may affect technology stocks. One can consider small - position layout of November out - of - the money call options [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures of different maturities all rose. The central bank conducted 137.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. The money market marginally loosened, and risk - aversion sentiment increased. Although the bonds will be strong next week, they lack the power for a large - scale upward movement [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: Contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined compared to the previous period, with declines ranging from 0.47% to 0.64% [4] - **Stock Indices**: Indices including SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also declined, with declines between 0.19% and 0.50% [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL all rose, with increases from 0.02% to 0.41% [4] Market News - On October 13, customs data showed that in September, China's exports and imports denominated in US dollars both increased year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Exports increased by 8.3% and imports by 7.4% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends of main contracts and the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9][10][11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [14][17][18][19] - **Exchange Rates**: Displays the trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the trends of the US dollar index and currency pairs such as euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [22][23][24][26][28]