美国也在积极推动"去中国化"的贸易圈，通过与日韩的技术合作、与墨西哥的产业转移，逐步建立一个"非中国优先"的供应体系。虽然口头上宣扬开放与共 赢，但在实际操作中，针对中国的限制越来越多，尤其是在多边协议中设定了诸多隐性条款，限制其他国家与中国的合作。这种做法虽然不新鲜，但显然已 经加大了力度。 从表面看，似乎是美国主动出击，但深层次的原因则是担心自己在全球产业链中的核心地位被中国逐渐取代。正是这种焦虑情绪，推动了美国贸易政策的强 硬化。 面对持续的高压政策，中国并没有急于回应。中国的态度一直是清晰的：合作是可以讨论的，但必须建立在平等与尊重的基础上。在过去几轮接触中，中方 始终没有在原则性问题上做出妥协，仍然坚持自己的立场，这并非回避，而是为了稳住自身节奏的选择。 2025年还没有结束，中美之间的贸易争端却已经进入了一个新的阶段。从本该讨论合作与未来的APEC峰会，到如今的"谁先让步"的焦点，局势似乎陷入了 更加复杂的僵局。曾经象征着合作的场所，如今变成了双方力争的舞台，矛盾和立场摆在了桌面上。 特朗普政府此前曾表示希望与中国高层展开会谈，语气显得比较温和，但这并非真诚的和解信号，更多的是试图施加压力的一种方 ...

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 随着大豆进入收获季，失去中国客户的美国农户陷入"生存之战"。 据《华尔街日报》7日报道，在设备与化肥成本攀升、玉米和大豆供应过剩的双重压力下，美国豆农的 财务状况已经岌岌可危。为安抚农民情绪，美国国会去年12月曾通过了一项价值100亿美元的农业救助 计划，特朗普政府正考虑再追加100亿至140亿美元资金，以缓解此次贸易争端给农户带来的冲击。 本周一（6日），特朗普在白宫宣布，他将在"本周出台农业相关扶持措施"，帮助种植户应对对华出口 下滑损失。一名白宫官员向美媒透露，特朗普预计将在本周晚些时候与美农业部长罗林斯会面，最终确 定农业救助资金的来源。此前，特朗普及其团队曾宣称，将考虑动用关税收入来为救助计划提供大部分 资金支持。 美国农业部发言人对此回应称，特朗普正"动用一切可用工具"，以确保农户拥有维持农业生产所需的资 源。 另据《纽约时报》报道，农民们期待救助计划能尽早公布，但白宫方面推诿称，政府持续停摆导致该计 划被迫推迟。 10月6日，特朗普在白宫召开记者会。白宫视频截图 然而，农时不等人。眼看政府迟迟拿不出切实解决方案，美国豆农的恐慌情绪正进一步加剧。 罗恩·金德里德（Ron ...

Core Insights - The Argentine government announced the temporary cancellation of export withholding taxes on agricultural products, including grains, beef, and poultry, to boost exports and stabilize the local currency [1] - Following this policy change, Chinese buyers ordered at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans, each approximately 65,000 tons, indicating a shift away from U.S. soybean purchases [1][2] - The cancellation of the export tax is set to last until October 31, aiming to increase dollar supply in Argentina [1] Impact on Soybean Market - The removal of the export withholding tax makes Argentine soybeans more attractive to China, although the impact may be short-lived due to the limited overall supply from Argentina [2] - U.S. farmers are facing significant losses as they miss out on soybean orders during the critical sales season, with estimates suggesting losses could reach 14 to 16 million tons if China does not enter the U.S. market by mid-November [5][6] Trade Dynamics - Historically, China has been a major buyer of U.S. soybeans, importing nearly $13 billion worth last year, but trade tensions have drastically reduced these orders [5] - In 2024, China's imports of U.S. soybeans are projected to account for only 20% of total imports, a significant drop from 41% in 2016 [5] - The shift in purchasing patterns has led to over 70% of China's soybean imports coming from Brazil, doubling the figure from 15 years ago [5] Diplomatic Context - Chinese officials emphasize the importance of agricultural cooperation between China and the U.S., arguing that agriculture should not be politicized [6] - The Chinese government expresses willingness to collaborate with the U.S. to resolve trade issues and enhance mutual benefits [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The temporary exemption of grain export tariffs in Argentina, combined with the disappointment from the China-US talks and the expected decline in high-frequency palm oil exports, has a strong short - term impact on the market, causing a significant correction in the domestic futures market. In the long - term, it is difficult to affect the domestic soybean system pattern, and fundamental variables need to be focused on [7]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Reaction - Argentina's decision to cancel export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products from September 22nd to October 31st to ease the shortage of US dollar supply has led to a decline in the Chicago soybean oil futures to the lowest level since mid - June. The main contracts of domestic soybean and palm oil futures once fell to 8018 and 8946 points, with declines of 3.91% and 4.06% respectively [1]. Driving Factors - **Argentina's Export Tax Adjustment**: Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third - largest soybean producer. The cancellation of export taxes intensifies competition in the international soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal markets. Throughout 2025, different export tax adjustments in Argentina have had various impacts on the market. For example, on January 27th, the market expected an export surge and potential increase in soybean production, but the domestic market rose due to other factors. On July 26th, the permanent tax reduction led to a slight downturn in the market [4][5]. - **China - US Talks**: The much - anticipated phone call between the US and Chinese leaders did not bring new information on agricultural product trade. China, as the world's largest soybean importer and the main export destination for US soybeans, has not purchased any new - season US soybeans. The seasonal harvest pressure in the US and the China - US trade dispute have put pressure on the market and accelerated the decline [5]. Market Outlook - In the short - term, there is a resonance in the domestic oil market. In the long - term, since the domestic soybean market mainly imports from Brazil, and Argentina's direct impact on domestic soybean import costs is low, the temporary exemption of export tariffs in Argentina is unlikely to affect the domestic soybean system pattern, and fundamental changes need to be closely monitored [7].

Group 1 - The US-China trade negotiations are tense, focusing on four key areas: ongoing tariff disputes, sensitive technology export controls, the controversial TikTok operations, and global energy and geopolitical dynamics [1] - The US and China have agreed to maintain a 90-day tariff ceasefire, but substantial differences remain on key issues [1] - Traditional allies of the US, including the EU, G7, NATO, and Japan, have shown reluctance towards Trump's proposal for a 100% tariff increase on China, indicating a lack of consensus among allies [3] Group 2 - The US is facing challenges in retaining skilled foreign talent, as evidenced by the backlash from South Korea over the detention of over 300 high-tech professionals, leading to many returning home [3] - Trump's acknowledgment of the need for foreign talent in key sectors like agriculture, construction, and high-tech highlights a talent crisis in the US [3] - The decline of traditional American industries, such as shipbuilding, is evident, with a significant drop in production capabilities [4] Group 3 - Trump believes that foreign investment can help revitalize the US economy by providing capital and technology, which can enhance local workforce skills [5] - The current policies of the Trump administration appear increasingly ineffective, with little hope for substantial breakthroughs in the ongoing US-China trade negotiations [5] - The future of US-China economic relations is expected to be more contentious, requiring China to maintain strategic readiness against potential new US tactics [5]

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance this week, driven by southbound capital, rising interest rate cut expectations, and technology sector strength, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by +4.07%, +3.82%, and +5.31% respectively [3][13] - Most primary industry sectors recorded gains, with the materials sector continuing to perform strongly, achieving a weekly increase of over 6%. The information technology sector, led by major tech companies like Alibaba and Tencent, also saw a weekly increase exceeding 6% [3][13] - As of the end of the week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stood at 82.57%, indicating a valuation level above the 5-year average [3] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment for the Hong Kong market remains closely tied to the performance of the Chinese economy, with over 80% of profits in the Hong Kong market coming from Chinese companies [39][41] - In August, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.4% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.3%, both figures falling short of expectations [39][46] - The People's Bank of China is expected to conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 15, indicating ongoing monetary support [41] Sector Allocation Outlook - The report favors sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][46] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks, are also highlighted as favorable [3][46] - Attention is drawn to potential impacts from the US-China trade disputes, with recommendations to avoid sectors and companies with significant exposure to the US market [3][46] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 3.81 billion HKD, a decrease from the previous week's 5.58 billion HKD, with 49 companies participating in buybacks [27][30] - Tencent Holdings led the buyback activity with 2.75 billion HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings with 490 million HKD [27][30] - The information technology and financial sectors saw the highest number of companies engaging in buybacks, with 12 and 9 companies respectively [30]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have severely impacted U.S. soybean farmers, particularly in North Dakota, who are missing out on billions of dollars in potential sales to China due to a lack of purchase commitments from Chinese buyers [1][2][17]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - North Dakota soybean farmers heavily rely on exports to China, with nearly a quarter of the 4 billion bushels produced annually being exported there [2]. - Last year, China imported approximately $13 billion worth of soybeans from the U.S., a significant increase from $2 billion two decades ago [2]. - Currently, the export commitment for the upcoming soybean harvest is at its lowest level since the 2018-19 season, leading to stagnant soybean prices [2][3]. Group 2: Market Competition - Brazilian soybeans have become increasingly attractive to Chinese buyers, with Brazil supplying 70% of China's soybean imports last year, double the amount from 15 years ago [6][17]. - U.S. soybean prices are currently $0.80 to $0.90 per bushel lower than Brazilian soybeans, but U.S. trade barriers have increased procurement costs for Chinese importers by $2 per bushel [20][21]. - If the current trend continues, U.S. soybean sales to China could drop by 14 to 16 million tons by mid-November [20]. Group 3: Economic Support and Subsidies - The U.S. government has previously provided $23 billion in relief to farmers affected by trade disputes during Trump's first term [15]. - There are discussions about providing similar economic support, but the implementation of such plans is complicated and may take time to benefit farmers [15][16]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" proposes $66 billion over the next decade to support farmers, but many benefits will not be realized until the next harvest season [15][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to lower its soybean export forecast for the 2025/26 season due to ongoing trade disputes, with the current estimate at 46.4 million tons, down from 51.02 million tons the previous year [20]. - Despite the challenges, there remains a significant demand for U.S. soybeans from non-Chinese buyers, particularly during the sales season when competition is limited [21]. - The potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China could significantly improve the outlook for U.S. soybeans [22].

Group 1 - Asian markets showed mixed results as traders anticipated an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, with equities experiencing a strong run-up due to favorable job and inflation data [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points, although some analysts suggest a potential cut of 50 basis points, with President Trump expressing support for a significant reduction [2][3] - The tone of the Federal Reserve's policy statement and guidance from Chairman Powell's press conference will be closely monitored, alongside meetings of central banks in Canada, Britain, and Japan [3] Group 2 - Shanghai's market declined due to weaker-than-expected economic data in China, particularly in retail sales and industrial production [4] - The Australian market faced losses, particularly ANZ bank, which agreed to pay a record fine of AUD 240 million (USD 159.5 million) for widespread misconduct [4] - Ongoing trade talks between China and the United States are set to address various issues, including tariffs and the TikTok dispute, with negotiations occurring amid China's investigations into the US semiconductor sector [5]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has achieved a "four consecutive days of gains," surpassing 26,000 points, marking a year-to-date increase of nearly 31% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has also recorded an increase of over 30% year-to-date [2] - Notable gainers among Hang Seng constituents include Lenovo Group (+4%), JD Logistics (+4%), and Sun Hung Kai Properties (+4%), while SMIC and Sunny Optical rose over 2% [2] Financial Performance - According to Galaxy Securities, total revenue for all Hong Kong stocks increased by 0.67% year-on-year in the first half of the year, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 3.59% [3] - The revenue growth rates for the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index were 2.46% and 2.59%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year's report [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index showed a stronger performance with a revenue growth of 16.12% and a net profit growth of 19.24% in the first half of 2025 [3] Capital Flows - Continuous inflow of southbound funds has been a key driver for the rise in Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 979 billion from January to August [4] - The proportion of trading volume from the Stock Connect has been increasing, reaching an average of 55.9% in August [4] - Southbound funds have maintained a net inflow status into September [4] Market Outlook - Analysts from Zhongtai International suggest that the market is currently in a consolidation phase at high levels, with limited room for further valuation expansion [7] - The Chinese economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, with improving domestic demand and a more favorable export structure [7] - Investment strategies should focus on high-certainty earnings technology leaders, semiconductor, AI computing sectors, and interest-sensitive materials [7] Sector Recommendations - Citigroup has raised its year-end target for the Hang Seng Index by 7% to 26,800 points, with further increases expected in 2024 [10] - The report highlights sectors such as technology, healthcare, and insurance as key beneficiaries of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," while downgrading telecommunications and energy sectors due to slow profit growth [10] - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with relative prosperity and policy benefits, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [8]

Group 1 - The core issue of the trade tensions between the US and China revolves around the strategic importance of rare earth materials, particularly magnets, which are crucial for various high-tech applications [1][5][19] - Trump's recent threat to impose a 200% tariff on Chinese magnets highlights the US's reliance on China for these critical resources, as the US lacks domestic processing capabilities for rare earths [5][12][19] - The US government is considering special tariffs on key products like rare earth permanent magnets, electric vehicle batteries, and solar panels, where China holds a dominant position [5][10] Group 2 - The US has been attempting to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths but has faced significant challenges, including failed domestic mining efforts and unsuccessful partnerships with other countries [10][12] - The trade war has led to increased costs for US consumers and businesses, with estimates suggesting that tariffs have raised import costs by over $320 billion [8][10] - Despite the tensions, American companies, particularly in the tech sector, continue to seek opportunities in the Chinese market, indicating the complexity of the economic relationship [17][19] Group 3 - The ongoing trade dispute has entered its sixth year, with both countries adjusting their strategies, and Trump's recent statements may serve as a political maneuver ahead of upcoming high-level talks [15][19] - China's trade diversification strategy is evident, as it has seen a decline in exports to the US while increasing exports to emerging markets [13][19] - The interdependence between the US and China in the rare earth sector underscores the need for both nations to navigate their economic relationship carefully to avoid mutual harm [19]