Core Viewpoint - General Motors (GM) is instructing thousands of suppliers to eliminate reliance on the Chinese supply chain by 2027, aiming to enhance supply chain resilience and reduce dependency on China for critical components [4][5][16]. Group 1: General Motors' Strategy - GM has been working on increasing supply chain resilience for years, focusing on local sourcing of components [5]. - The company has initiated efforts to secure domestic semiconductor supply chains, evidenced by a long-term agreement with GlobalFoundries to reserve capacity for critical chips [10]. - GM is investing in local resources for battery raw materials, including a nearly $950 million joint venture with Lithium Americas to develop a lithium mine in Nevada [11][13]. - The company is also establishing partnerships for cobalt and nickel supplies, aiming to build a reliable supply chain within North America and allied nations [11][13]. - GM's strategy includes reducing reliance on Chinese processed materials, particularly in rare earth elements, which are crucial for electric vehicles [13][14]. Group 2: Ford's Position - Ford's electric vehicle battery technology heavily relies on Chinese suppliers, including a partnership with CATL for LFP battery technology in Michigan [18][19]. - Regulatory scrutiny has arisen regarding Ford's collaboration with CATL, prompting the company to seek additional partnerships with North American lithium suppliers [24][25]. - Ford's sales in China have decreased, with 2024 projections showing a drop to 440,000 units, while still achieving $600 million in profit due to exports [36][37]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - Both GM and Ford have not increased investments in China like their Japanese and German counterparts, with GM's market share in China declining from 12-13% pre-pandemic to 8-9% in 2023 [30][32]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are reshaping the automotive supply chain, pushing companies to localize production while still relying on Chinese components due to cost advantages [41][44]. - The evolving international landscape will have significant implications for global automotive supply chains and corporate strategies in the coming years [44].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is intensifying its trade policy towards China, particularly concerning rare earth exports, with potential tariff increases if China continues to restrict these exports [1][10][24] Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Investigations - The U.S. Trade Representative, Tai, announced the reactivation of the Section 301 investigation to assess China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement from 2020 [4][6] - The Section 301 investigation is a significant trade measure that allows the U.S. to impose tariffs on countries found to engage in unfair trade practices [4][6] - The Biden administration maintains a tough stance on China, especially in technology and market access, despite initial intentions for cooperation [6][24] Group 2: Rare Earth Resources and Strategic Importance - Rare earth elements are critical for modern high-tech industries, with China holding over 90% of the global market share, making it a dominant player in this sector [8][16] - The U.S. and its allies have long relied on China for rare earth exports, particularly in military and high-tech applications, creating a strategic dependency [10][16] - The U.S. has previously attempted to reduce this dependency by promoting domestic mining and establishing strategic reserves, but progress has been limited due to technical complexities [12][14] Group 3: Implications of U.S.-China Trade Tensions - The potential for increased tariffs on rare earths could lead to a rise in global prices and disrupt supply chains, affecting high-tech industries in the U.S. and other developed nations [18][24] - China's response to U.S. pressures, particularly regarding rare earth exports, could influence the positions of other countries like the EU and Japan in the U.S.-China trade conflict [20][24] - The ongoing trade conflict over rare earths signifies a broader strategic competition that will impact global economic and political dynamics [22][25]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Becerra, expressed his pain over China's refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans, highlighting the significant impact on American farmers and the current agricultural situation [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Becerra mentioned that China has drastically reduced its soybean purchases, nearly to zero, which has created a "perfect storm" for U.S. farmers due to high yields this year [1][4]. - Recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have reached a "substantial framework," which Becerra believes will alleviate concerns among U.S. soybean growers [3]. Group 2: Agricultural Market Dynamics - Data from the General Administration of Customs indicates that from January to September, China imported 86.18 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. However, in September, China did not import any soybeans from the U.S., marking the first time since November 2018 that imports from the U.S. dropped to zero [5]. - The decline in imports is attributed to high tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the completion of transactions for old soybean stocks harvested in previous years [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook for U.S. Soybean Farmers - Analysts warn that if trade negotiations do not yield positive results, U.S. farmers could face losses amounting to billions of dollars as Chinese buyers continue to source soybeans from South America [7]. - U.S. soybean farmers have attempted to diversify their markets by reaching out to countries like Vietnam and the Philippines, but they acknowledge the difficulty in finding immediate alternatives to the Chinese market [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index market showed a trend of hitting bottom and rebounding throughout the day, with all three major indices rising. The outlook for relevant themes remains optimistic in the long - term, but there are uncertainties from the US's debt pressure and trade policies. Short - term liquidity may be affected, and it is expected that volatility will increase this week, suggesting attention to option double - buying or ratio spread strategies [1]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate. Although recent factors have led to a short - term strengthening of bonds, there is a lack of strong impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index**: The market recovered after hitting bottom, with about 3000 stocks rising in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets, and the trading volume on this day was 1.66 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee has attracted high market attention. The strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and technology remains unchanged, but there are uncertainties from the US and potential impacts on short - term liquidity. The futures market has a large discount, and option implied volatility is low. Volatility is expected to increase this week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed with declines in various contracts. The central bank conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. Economic data shows a weak recovery trend. Although there was a short - term strengthening due to factors such as the intensification of the Sino - US tariff war, there is a lack of strong impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 23, 2025, compared with the previous day, IH rose 18.2 points (0.61%), IF rose 17.4 points (0.38%), IC rose 28.4 points (0.41%), and IM rose 15.8 points (0.22%) [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 16.8 points (0.56%), the CSI 300 rose 13.8 points (0.30%), the CSI 500 rose 14.5 points (0.20%), and the CSI 1000 fell 4.1 points (- 0.06%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 23, 2025, compared with the previous day, TS fell 0.022 points (- 0.02%), TF fell 0.09 points (- 0.09%), T fell 0.11 points (- 0.10%), and TL fell 0.40 points (- 0.35%) [3]. Market News - As of October 22, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for the national automobile trade - in program exceeded 10 million, including over 3.4 million for vehicle scrapping and replacement and over 6.6 million for replacement [4]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises, emphasizing scientific planning, focusing on enhancing core functions and competitiveness, and promoting layout optimization and structural adjustment [4]. - From October 24 to 27, 2025, Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The document provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, showing the price trends and basis changes of these contracts from January 2024 to July 2025 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts include the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, covering data from 2023 to 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: The document presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies, with data spanning from January 2023 to July 2025 [24][25][26][28][31].

Group 1 - Trump's tone softened during an interview, indicating a potential shift in the U.S.-China relationship as he confirmed a meeting with Chinese leaders in Korea [1][3][24] - The U.S.-China disputes encompass various sectors, including rare earth exports, tariff threats, and agricultural trade, creating significant pressure on bilateral relations [1][4] - Recent U.S. actions, including discussions on rare earth controls and tariff adjustments, reflect internal complexities and pressures within the Trump administration [8][10] Group 2 - China's recent policy on rare earth exports, which includes new export controls, has caused global market reactions, with a 31% decline in China's rare earth exports over three months [12][14] - The rising prices of rare earths are increasing costs for U.S. manufacturing, particularly in electric vehicles and defense sectors, leading to heightened tensions within the U.S. manufacturing industry [19][21] - Trump's acknowledgment of the unsustainability of tariffs and the need for cooperation with China marks a strategic shift, as he balances domestic pressures with international negotiations [24][28]

Core Points - The U.S. is focusing on three main issues in the new round of negotiations with China: fentanyl tariffs, soybean exports, and rare earth export controls [2][9] - Trump believes that the U.S. should cancel fentanyl tariffs in exchange for increased soybean purchases from China and the lifting of rare earth export restrictions [2][9] - The trade dispute has significantly impacted U.S. soybean exports, with a reported 25% drop in exports to China due to retaliatory tariffs [3][4] Summary by Category Fentanyl Tariffs - The U.S. imposed additional tariffs on imports from China and Mexico, initially set at 10% and later increased to 20%, targeting the fentanyl supply chain [3] - The U.S. government claims these tariffs are necessary to combat drug smuggling, which costs the U.S. hundreds of billions annually [3] - China has denied responsibility for the fentanyl issue, attributing it to U.S. regulatory problems, but the U.S. continues to hold China accountable [3][12] Soybean Exports - U.S. soybean exports to China have plummeted, with China shifting its purchases to Brazil and Argentina due to the trade dispute [4] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a significant decrease in soybean exports to China in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the previous year [4] - Trump has criticized China for not adhering to commitments and has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on soybeans if purchases do not resume [4][10] Rare Earth Export Controls - China controls a significant portion of the global rare earth supply, with over 80% of medium and heavy rare earths sourced from China [6] - Starting April 2025, China will strengthen its export licensing system, leading to a 15% year-on-year decrease in export volume [6] - The U.S. Department of Defense has reported that these controls could impact the production of military equipment, including the F-35 fighter jet [6][10] Negotiation Dynamics - High-level talks between the U.S. and China have seen proposals for China to purchase an additional $10 billion in soybeans and relax rare earth quotas, while China demands the cancellation of fentanyl tariffs as a gesture of goodwill [7][10] - The U.S. has extended a 90-day tariff suspension to facilitate initial discussions, but tensions remain high as both sides accuse each other of pressure tactics [7][9] - The outcome of these negotiations is uncertain, with both sides holding firm on their positions, and the potential for broader geopolitical implications beyond trade [10][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock indices is "bullish" [1] - The investment rating for 5-year treasury bonds is "sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, the A-share market oscillated upwards, with the technology sector remaining strong. The Wind All-A Index rose 1.62%, and trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan. The medium - to - long - term outlook for technology - related themes is optimistic, but uncertainties come from US domestic debt and trade policies. Some brokerages' adjustment of margin financing conversion ratios may impact short - term liquidity. The futures market shows a large discount and low implied volatility in options. Volatility is expected to rise this week, and option double - buy or ratio spread strategies can be considered [1] - For 5 - year treasury bonds, treasury futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 685 billion yuan. Economic data shows a weak recovery. The recent relaxation of the capital side and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war have boosted the safe - haven sentiment, but the lack of restart of treasury bond trading and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations limit the upward momentum [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Stock Indices**: On October 21, 2025, the A - share market rose. The technology sector was strong, and the Wind All - A Index increased by 1.62%. The trading volume was 1.89 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all rose. The long - term technology - driven strategy remains unchanged, but there are uncertainties from the US. Some brokerages' margin financing ratio adjustments may affect short - term liquidity. The futures market discount reflects strong hedging demand, and low option implied volatility shows a wait - and - see attitude. Volatility is expected to increase this week [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bonds**: On Tuesday, treasury futures closed higher. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net injection of funds. The economic data shows a weak recovery. The recent relaxation of the capital side and the tariff war have increased the safe - haven sentiment, but the lack of restart of treasury bond trading and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations limit the upward movement [1][3] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From October 20 to October 21, 2025, IH rose 1.16%, IF rose 1.57%, IC rose 2.08%, and IM rose 1.75% [4] - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50 rose 1.09%, the SSE 300 rose 1.53%, the CSI 500 rose 1.64%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.45% [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.04%, TF rose 0.06%, T rose 0.03%, and TL rose 0.25% [4] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased [4] 3. Market News - On October 20, the Ministry of Commerce held a policy interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises, with over 170 representatives participating. Officials from relevant departments responded to the enterprises' concerns [5] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][19] - **Exchange Rates**: The report displays the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [21][22][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the macro - risk is partially reduced but still exists, waiting for the outcome of the APEC meeting. The fundamentals of the three major oils are in a state of mixed long and short positions, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to fluctuate. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak but with limited downside space [1][29]. - In the medium to long term, palm oil is expected to show a strong trend after November. For soybean oil, the price should be treated with cautious optimism. For rapeseed oil, the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the biggest uncertainty [2][30]. - For the strategy, focus on the performance of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts in the ranges of 8150 - 8400, 9200 - 9600, and 9800 - 10000 respectively, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [2][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - **Short - term situation**: MPOB's September report was unexpectedly bearish, and October's high - frequency data showed continued production growth. The export demand of Malaysian palm oil weakened in the second half of October, causing the inventory to rise. However, the inventory accumulation period is coming to an end, and there are uncertainties in Indonesia's production and the progress of B50 is ahead of schedule, so the price trend in October is expected to have limited fluctuations and strengthen towards the end of the production season [5]. - **Malaysian situation**: MPOB's September report showed that the inventory reached a five - year high of 236000 tons. SPPOMA data indicated a 6.86% increase in production from October 1 - 15. ITS data showed that the export growth rate decreased in the second half of October. The inventory is expected to continue rising in October, but the inventory accumulation time is limited due to the upcoming traditional production - reduction season [6]. - **Indonesian situation**: In July, the inventory was at a relatively low level of 2.57 million tons. There are concerns about production decline due to the takeover of illegal plantations. The B50 biodiesel has completed non - road tests, and the implementation of B50 is expected to increase the demand for palm oil by 3 - 4 million tons. The inventory in 2025 is expected to maintain a tight balance [9]. - **Domestic situation**: Due to pre - National Day stocking, palm oil stocks decreased slightly in September. The estimated arrivals in October and November are 230000 and 190000 tons respectively. After the National Day stocking, the inventory rebounded. As of October 17, the inventory was 575700 tons, and the short - term de - stocking is expected to be limited [11]. - **Medium - to - long - term outlook**: After November, the traditional production - reduction season begins in Southeast Asia. The La Nina phenomenon may intensify the production decline. The B50 - related positive news will continue to be released, and Indonesia may restrict exports. The domestic palm oil purchases after November are relatively low, and the de - stocking power increases during the peak season, which is conducive to the price increase in the fourth quarter [14]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term situation**: The market hopes for an improvement in US soybean export demand due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and the USDA's communication with South American countries. However, it is too early to conclude that the Sino - US trade dispute is resolved. The current export demand for US soybeans is still weak, and the domestic soybean and soybean oil supply in China is abundant. The short - term rebound of soybean oil is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [15]. - **US soybean situation**: In terms of production, the probability of a decrease in yield is high due to the drought in the main production areas. In terms of demand, the US soybean crushing volume in September reached a record high, but the export progress in the 25/26 season is far behind. The short - term rebound of US soybean 01 contract is limited, with the upper pressure level at 1050 - 1070 [16]. - **South American situation**: As of October 11, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season is relatively fast. Although the La Nina phenomenon exists, there is currently no short - term weather risk in the main production areas [20]. - **Domestic situation**: Since May, China's soybean arrivals have been above 10 million tons for five consecutive months, and the oil mills have maintained a high operating rate. As of October 17, the domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are at historical highs. The soybean arrivals from November to January are expected to be at normal levels, and the supply in the fourth quarter is not short [22]. - **Medium - to - long - term outlook**: There are potential positive factors such as an improvement in US soybean export demand, the implementation of US bio - fuel policies, a decrease in US soybean production, South American weather speculation, and a supply gap in the first quarter of 2026. The medium - to - long - term trend of soybean oil is cautiously optimistic [24]. Rapeseed Oil - **Policy impact**: The anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the main factor affecting the domestic rapeseed oil market. Since August, the import of Canadian rapeseed has been severely restricted, resulting in a significant decline in domestic rapeseed arrivals. The supply shortage before November is difficult to solve, and the supply situation may be partially alleviated after November, but the supply - demand tension remains [25][26]. - **Risk factor**: There is room for policy softening in Canada due to the high inventory and low price of rapeseed. The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China did not bring a breakthrough, and the short - term import of Canadian rapeseed remains restricted. The follow - up situation depends on the development of Sino - Canadian relations and the relaxation of processing restrictions on Australian rapeseed [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound after a period of adjustment, driven by factors such as the easing of the US-China trade dispute and strong performance in the technology sector [1][2]. Group 2 - On October 20, the Hong Kong stock market opened higher and maintained a strong position throughout the day, closing up 2.42% at 25,858.83 points [1]. - Recent discussions between Chinese and US officials regarding bilateral economic relations are seen as constructive, with an agreement to hold new trade consultations soon, which may alleviate short-term market volatility [1]. - The technology sector continues to show robust growth, providing structural opportunities for the Hong Kong stock market despite recent cooling market sentiment [1]. - External liquidity is improving, with continued inflows from foreign and southbound funds, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks still hold valuation advantages [1]. - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, driven by easing inflation and economic growth concerns, could further attract foreign investment into the Hong Kong market [1]. - The fourth quarter is anticipated to accumulate favorable factors for the Hong Kong stock market, including the rapid development of the technology sector and improved external liquidity [2].

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are experiencing a significant rise, reaching their highest level in over four years, driven by easing tensions in US-China trade relations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - An emerging market stock index increased by 1.5%, marking the strongest level since June 2021 [1] - Notable stocks such as TSMC, Tencent, and Alibaba led the gains [1] - An emerging market currency index also saw a rise of 0.2% [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - US President Trump indicated that tariffs on Chinese goods are "unsustainable," although they will remain in place for now [1] - Trump mentioned maintaining good relations with Chinese leaders and anticipated a meeting during the upcoming APEC conference in South Korea [1] - Key negotiation topics between the US and China include rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Chris Weston from Pepperstone Group noted that despite uncertainties in trade developments, current market pricing suggests a positive outcome or at least no further deterioration [1][3] - There is speculation that China may ease rare earth export controls, potentially extending the current tariff truce [3] - Most Asian emerging market currencies strengthened against the US dollar, with the South Korean won and Indian rupee leading the gains [3]