Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [5] Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic long - term contract price is still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. Downstream refined copper rod enterprises report a continuous decline in orders, and there is significant uncertainty in future demand. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous downward pressure on the Fed's interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Market - On June 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,310 yuan/ton, a 0.70% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,160 yuan/ton and closed at 78,250 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Market - In the morning of the previous day, spot copper holders started to lower the premium. The mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and the prices of some brands in Shanghai and Changzhou markets dropped to around a premium of 350 yuan/ton, then were pressed to a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton for transactions. The mainstream flat - copper was still quoted at a premium of 380 - 400 yuan/ton with tight supply. Good - quality copper was quoted at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton. In the second trading session, some sources were at a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low price stimulated downstream purchases, and the market's purchase and sales sentiment indices increased. Spot copper merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to lock in profits [2] Important Information - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4.25% with increasing internal divergence. Traders expect a 50 - basis - point rate cut this year. Geopolitically, Israel aims to eliminate Khamenei, while the White House says Trump has a "great" chance of negotiating with Iran and will decide on attacking Iran in two weeks. Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and called for a 250 - basis - point rate cut. Domestically, three departments held a video conference on new - energy vehicle safety management, emphasizing no "involution - style" competition [3] - **Mine End**: Troilus Gold reached an agreement with Germany's Aurubis AG for the concentrate purchase of its Quebec copper - gold project. The final agreement is expected to be signed simultaneously with the $7 - billion overall debt - financing plan announced in March 2025. The project was an old mine that produced nearly 70,000 tons of copper from 1996 - 2010. It is estimated to produce an average of 135.4 million pounds of copper equivalent per year over a 22 - year mine life [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The Kutch copper smelter in Gujarat with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons started processing ore this week after multiple delays due to raw - material shortages. It aims to reach full - capacity production as soon as possible, which may take 18 months, and a full - capacity operation would require about 1.6 million tons of copper concentrate supply per year [4] - **Consumption**: In May 2025, China's copper product output was 2.096 million tons, a slight increase from April and a multi - year high for the same period. From January to May, the output was 9.537 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase. In the off - season, the operating rates of copper tubes and rods declined, but cables performed well [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,025 tons to 103,325 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,198 tons to 44,816 tons. On June 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.459 million tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week [4] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] - Option: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 2: Core View - This week, the domestic long - term contract price is still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. The orders of downstream refined copper rod enterprises continue to decline, and there is great uncertainty in future demand. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 18, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,600 yuan/ton and closed at 78,860 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session of the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,610 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - In the early morning, holders quoted JCC, Lufang, Xiangguang at a premium of 200 - 230 yuan/ton. After traders bought JCC at a low - premium of 170 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction price weakened. In Changzhou, iron - peak, Honglu, Yuguang copper were traded at a premium of 120 - 140 yuan/ton. Russian copper was sold at low prices, with transactions from par to a premium of 40 yuan/ton. Holders rushed to sell due to concerns about subsequent warehouse receipts, and the spot premium is expected to decline further [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June. The dot - plot shows two rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who expect no rate cuts this year has risen to 7, and the expected rate cuts next year have been reduced to 1. Powell emphasized uncertainty and said the current economic situation requires waiting. He also expects tariff - driven inflation to rise in the coming months. Trump called for a 200 - BP rate cut and said 250 - BP would be better. In China, the 2025 Lujiazui Forum opened, and the central bank announced eight major financial opening - up measures [3] - **Mine End**: Anglo Asian aims to transform into a medium - sized copper - based producer by 2029. Besides the Gilar mine, it plans to put three other mines (Zafar, Xarxar, and Garadag) into production. In 2024, its operations were restricted by environmental closures but resumed at the end of the year, with a total gold - equivalent output of 16,760 ounces [3] - **Smelting and Import**: In April 2025, China's scrap copper (copper waste and scrap) imports were 204,747.956 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month and down 9.43% year - on - year. Japan was the largest supplier, with imports of 32,677.883 tons, up 20.95% month - on - month and 13.72% year - on - year. Thailand was the second - largest supplier, with imports of 25,049.854 tons, up 27.15% month - on - month and 61.91% year - on - year [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Due to the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited room for improvement. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases on dips [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 107,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons to 47,014 tons. On June 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,700 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [4] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] - **Arbitrage**: Suspended [5] - **Option**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Data Table - Various copper - related data are presented in tables and figures, including TC prices, SMM1 copper premium and discount quotes, inventory, warehouse receipts, and price differences [6][27][28]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 俄罗斯货源并不被普遍认可 流动货源仍相对偏紧 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-17，沪铜主力合约开于 78640元/吨，收于 78570元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.03%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78,600元/吨，收于 78,560 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.04%。 现货情况： 铜：谨慎偏多 总体而言，本周国内长单价格仍在谈判之中，现货TC价格仍处于低位，不过下游精铜杆企业反馈订单持续走低。 未来需求展望仍存较大不确定性。但在地缘因素复杂，美联储持续存在降息压力的情况下，铜品种的类贵金属属 性或许也会从中受益。故操作上目前仍然建议以逢低买入套保为主，买入区间在77,000元/吨至77,500元/吨。 套利：暂缓 期权：short put @ 77,000元/吨 据 SMM 讯， 昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对当月2507合约报升水180-升水300元/吨，均价报价升水240 元/吨，较上 一交易日涨210元/吨；SMM1#电解铜价格为78620~78810 元/吨。早盘，沪期铜2507合约窄幅波动，于78420-78560 元/吨波动； ...