另外，从宏观面来看，2025年以来，国际宏观面消息扰动不断，先是越南、印度等多个国家对中国热轧 板卷产品加收关税，制约热轧板卷出口。国内则基本围绕粗钢减产以及促消费等消息，该消息发布初 期，对行情起到一定提振，但随着消息面转淡，价格将再次回归基本面运行逻辑。6月份来看，贸易局 势不确定性依然存在，且国内消息面逐步进入真空期，难以对热轧板卷市价形成提振。 综合分析，预计6月热轧板卷或继续保持下跌走势，且价格逐步跌出4月以来形成的震荡区间，主要原因 在于淡季的来临带动供需矛盾不断升级，而能够提振行情的消息面因素则逐步减少，国内消息进入真空 期，国际消息不确定性则增加。在多方因素共同作用下，热轧板卷价格底部支撑再次松动，从而市价大 概率出现显著下滑。 （作者：李欢，卓创资讯分析师） （文章来源：新华财经） 2025年，热轧板卷价格走势相对平缓，基本呈现区间震荡局面，价格重心则逐步下移。虽然中美贸易紧 张局势近期有所缓和，市场暂时进入消息真空期，热轧板卷现货供需矛盾逐步凸显，市价再次出现跌 势，就当前走势来看，6月份市价或再次跌至新的震荡区间，时间节点在端午节后。 具体来看，对于6月热轧板卷行情预期下滑，主要考虑市场 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report's core view is that the steel price will experience a short - term rebound but be under overall pressure [3] Group 3: Summary According to Content - The logic behind the market is that the Politburo meeting proposed to use a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, including possible reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, raise the income of low - and middle - income groups, support corporate financing, help struggling enterprises, build a new real - estate development model, and introduce incremental reserve policies for counter - cyclical adjustment. Last week, the average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China was 74.93%, a 0.14 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 56.66%, a 0.33 - percentage - point increase. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase; the steel - mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a 2.60 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.93 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year; the daily average pig - iron output was 244.35 tons, a 4.23 - ton increase [2] - Last week, the finished - steel market was in a consolidation phase, with the daily K - line showing a mix of long and short positions. On the night of last Friday, rebar and hot - rolled coils saw a rapid price increase, and there were rumors of a 50 - million - ton reduction in crude - steel production, which were unconfirmed. As the US trade policy eases and the macro - sentiment calms down, the steel - price movement returns to the fundamental logic. Steel mills are actively producing due to good profits, and the pig - iron output continues to rise, exerting some pressure on prices. However, short - term sentiment may drive a steel - price rebound due to the speculation of production - cut rumors [2] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [3]