1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market will experience wide - range fluctuations in 2026. The supply of lead concentrates will shift from shortage to tight balance, with global new capacity increasing from 110,000 tons in 2025 to 230,000 tons in 2026. The processing fees are expected to remain low with a narrowing decline. The price of waste batteries is likely to rise due to supply - demand mismatch [2][71]. - The growth of global refined lead supply will slow down in 2026. Domestic primary lead production will increase by 100,000 tons to 3.94 million tons, while secondary lead production may decrease by 0.5% year - on - year due to the implementation of the new national standard and constraints on raw materials and profits [2][71]. - Policy support for terminal consumption is expected to continue, with replacement demand and new - standard electric vehicle demand driving battery consumption. However, battery exports will face challenges from trade barriers and technological substitution, leading to a slight decline in consumption growth [2][71]. - Overall, macro - drivers are moderately positive, and cost support and rigid procurement will underpin lead prices. But increased supply and falling demand growth may lead to a wider supply - demand surplus, causing the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures to fluctuate widely between 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [2][72]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lead Market Review - In 2025, Shanghai lead futures showed wide - range fluctuations, mainly between 16,165 - 17,840 yuan/ton. By December 10, the main contract price closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, up 1.7% from the beginning of the year [7]. - London lead futures were slightly weaker than Shanghai lead. By December 10, the price closed at 1,988 US dollars/ton, up 2.8% from the beginning of the year [8]. 3.2 Lead Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Lead Ore Supply - In 2025, global new lead concentrate capacity was 110,000 tons, with overseas capacity increasing by about 60,000 tons and domestic by about 55,000 tons. In 2026, global new capacity is expected to increase to 230,000 tons, with overseas at 90,000 tons and domestic at 143,000 tons [12][13][14]. - In 2025, lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline, with domestic and imported fees dropping by 300 yuan/metal ton and 125 US dollars/dry ton respectively by December. In 2026, processing fees are expected to remain weak with a slowdown in the decline [21]. - In 2025, lead ore imports increased by 10% year - on - year to about 1.36 million tons. In 2026, the growth rate is expected to slow to about 5%. Silver concentrate imports are expected to grow steadily [22][23]. 3.2.2 Refined Lead Supply - In 2025, global refined lead production increased by 4.42% to 13.341 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to grow by 1% to 13.472 million tons [27][30]. - In 2025, domestic primary lead production increased by 6.4% to 3.84 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by 2.6% to 3.94 million tons [32]. - In 2025, domestic secondary lead production decreased by 0.5% to 3.176 million tons. In 2026, with the implementation of the new national standard, production is expected to decrease by another 0.5% to 3.16 million tons [37][40]. 3.2.3 Refined Lead Demand - In 2025, global refined lead consumption increased by 1.8% to 13.25 million tons, with a surplus of 91,000 tons. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow by 0.9% to 13.37 million tons, with a slightly wider surplus [49][50]. - In 2025, refined lead and lead products had a net import, while battery exports decreased significantly. In 2026, the export growth of refined lead and lead products is expected to slow, and net imports will continue. Battery exports will still face challenges but may decline at a slower pace [52][53]. - Policy support for terminal consumption will continue. In 2026, electric bicycle and automobile sectors will maintain demand for lead - acid batteries, and the energy storage sector will see stable growth, but lithium - ion battery substitution will pose long - term pressure [57][60][61]. 3.2.4 Inventory Performance - In 2025, LME lead inventory increased slightly and fluctuated at a high level, reaching 236,900 tons by December 9. Domestic inventory decreased significantly, dropping to 20,500 tons by December 8 [66]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook for the Future - In 2026, the lead market will be affected by cost and supply - demand factors, with the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuating widely between 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton [72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]