Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the text. Core View of the Report The lead ore's visible inventory is decreasing, and the import TC of lead concentrate is declining again. The smelting operation rate at the primary end has increased, and the inventory at primary plants has decreased. The inventory of waste lead-acid batteries has slightly increased, the smelting profit of recycled lead has improved significantly, and the operation rate of recycled lead has risen above 40%. On the demand side, the operation rate of batteries has slightly improved, and the price of lead-acid batteries has increased after a long period of stability. The social and factory inventories of lead ingots continue to decline, with the latest social inventory below 30,000 tons. The monthly spread of SHFE lead has shown an explosive increase after a long period of stability, and there are certain structural risks in the domestic market. Considering the recent positive atmosphere in the non-ferrous metal market, the prices of base metals have been strong, and several metals such as silver, zinc, and lead have shown structural risks. The sector atmosphere is favorable for bulls, and it is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 - Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.17% at 17,592 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S rose 10.5 to 2,017.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 154,600 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, the refined-scrap spread was 75 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 26,100 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 23,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was -190 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was 40 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 239,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 163,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -36.83 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -84.5 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE/LME ratio was 1.223, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 329.16 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 429,000 tons, equivalent to 26.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was -125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary operation rate was 67.57%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 2,000 tons. At the recycled end, the waste lead inventory was 79,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid batteries was 75.36% [11]. 02 - Primary Supply - **Imports**: In September 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 150,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of -6.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.8%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,070,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 24.4%. The net import of silver concentrate in September was 160,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of -8.6% and a month - on - month change of -14.1%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,358,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.8% [15]. - **Production**: In September 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 151,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of -3.0%. From January to September, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,249,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.5%. In September, the net import of lead - containing ores was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -7.5% and a month - on - month change of -0.7%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,185,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.6% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In September 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 306,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.4% and a month - on - month change of -1.8%. From January to September, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 2,434,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total production of lead ore was 2,256,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 429,000 tons, equivalent to 26.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was -125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Operation Rate and Output**: The primary operation rate was 67.57%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 2,000 tons. In September 2025, China's primary lead production was 327,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.4% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to September, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,860,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.3% [26]. 03 - Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: At the recycled end, the waste lead inventory was 79,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In September 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.5% and a month - on - month change of -1.0%. From January to September, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 2,888,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.7% [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In September 2025, the net export of lead ingots was -12,400 tons, a year - on - year change of -70.1% and a month - on - month change of 9.5%. From January to September, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was -80,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -50.1%. In September, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 657,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.8% and a month - on - month change of 0.1%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 5,829,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [35]. 04 - Demand Analysis - **Battery Operation Rate and Apparent Demand**: On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid batteries was 75.36%. In September 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 718,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 20.4% and a month - on - month change of 12.5%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 5,836,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In September 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.6474 million units, and the net export weight was 97,000 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 60,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.1% and a month - on - month change of -0.8%. From January to September, the total net export of lead in batteries was 554,700 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In September 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery manufacturers decreased from 20.5 to 19.7 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries at dealers decreased from 42 to 39.7 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries with lithium - iron phosphate starting batteries, the high current vehicle ownership and the high replacement demand of existing vehicles support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the rapid development of communication technology and the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations across the country have driven a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 05 - Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of -61,800 tons. From January to September, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of -6,800 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of -8,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of -53,900 tons [66]. 06 - Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 26,100 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 23,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was -190 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was 40 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 239,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 163,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -36.83 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -84.5 dollars/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE/LME ratio was 1.223, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 329.16 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net position of SHFE lead turned net long, the net long position of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The lead ore port inventory has increased, the lead concentrate TC has stabilized, and the smelting start - up rate of primary lead has remained high. The raw material inventory of secondary lead has slightly increased, the smelting profit of secondary lead has improved, and the weekly start - up rate of secondary smelters has increased. The start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has recovered, the factory inventory of lead - acid batteries has decreased to 19.7 days, and the dealer inventory of lead - acid batteries has decreased to 39.7 days, reducing the pressure on finished product inventory. The social inventory and factory inventory of lead ingots have continued to decline, and it is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.19% to 17,083 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 79,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME lead 3S fell 15.5 to 1,972.5 US dollars/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 152,900 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,900 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,850 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory remained flat at 33,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,100 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 252,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 156,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 44.99 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 88.3 US dollars/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 49.44 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 52,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 424,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The imported TC of lead concentrate was - 110 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary start - up rate was 66.64%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. At the secondary end, the lead waste inventory was 76,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. On the demand side, the start - up rate of lead batteries was 74.97% [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In August 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 134,800 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.9% and a month - on - month change of 10.4%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 919,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 31.5%. In August 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 185,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.8% and a month - on - month change of 20.0%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,191,100 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.3%. In August 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 154,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.8% and a month - on - month change of 14.8%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,028,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 18.5% [15][17]. - **Production**: In September 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 151,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of - 3.0%. From January to September, the total lead concentrate output was 1,249,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.5%. In September 2025, China's primary lead output was 327,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.4% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to September, the total output of primary lead ingots was 2,860,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.3% [17][26]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 52,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 424,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The imported TC of lead concentrate was - 110 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton [11][21][23]. 3.3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, the lead waste inventory was 76,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In September 2025, China's secondary lead output was 317,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.5% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to September, the total output of secondary lead ingots was 2,888,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.7% [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In August 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 11,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 86.1% and a month - on - month change of - 10.5%. From January to August, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 67,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.2%. In August 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 656,200 tons, a year - on - year change of - 5.4% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 5,172,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: On the demand side, the start - up rate of lead batteries was 74.97%. In August 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 639,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 5.3% and a month - on - month change of - 1.9%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 5,117,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.6% [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In August 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 17.8165 million, and the net export weight of batteries was 97,900 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 61,200 tons, a year - on - year change of - 11.3% and a month - on - month change of - 8.2%. From January to August, the total net export of lead in batteries was 494,100 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries increased by - 4.4% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In September 2025, the finished product inventory of lead batteries in factories decreased from 20.5 days to 19.7 days, and the inventory days of lead batteries for dealers decreased from 42 days to 39.7 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in the output of electric bicycles directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the rapid development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Inventory**: The total domestic lead ingot inventory situation shows that the domestic social inventory remained flat at 33,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 252,000 tons [11][71]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In August 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 16,900 tons, and from January to August, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 55,000 tons. In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 8,000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 53,900 tons [63][66]. 3.6. Price Outlook - **Basis and Spread**: The domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 44.99 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 88.3 US dollars/ton. The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 49.44 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead has decreased, the net long position of investment funds in London lead has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has increased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The primary lead ore's apparent inventory accumulation rate is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has declined again. Raw material shortages are suppressing primary smelting operations. On the secondary lead side, the price of scrap materials has dropped, the profit of secondary smelting has recovered, and operations have slightly improved. The downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years. After the pressure on battery inventory has decreased, downstream purchases have slightly increased. Both the domestic lead ingot factory inventory and social inventory have declined. After a long period of horizontal movement, the monthly spread of Shanghai lead has fluctuated upwards. It is expected that Shanghai lead will operate strongly in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.08% at 17,172 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 96,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S rose 1 to $2,011/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 164,400 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,925 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 75 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: On the primary side, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. On the secondary side, the scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In July 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 122,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 790,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 35.5%. In July 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 154,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 14.0% and a month - on - month change of 22.3%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,003,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4%. In August 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 156,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 13.9% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to August, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,097,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.8%. In July 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 875,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. In July 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 289,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.6%. From January to July, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 1,816,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total production of lead ore was 2,256,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6% [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and TC**: The port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Operation and Output**: The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. In August 2025, China's primary lead production was 324,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.9% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to August, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,533,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.8% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Material and Weekly Production**: The scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In August 2025, China's secondary lead production was 320,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 0.7%. From January to August, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2,571,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.2% [31][33]. - **Import and Total Supply**: In July 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 12,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of 75.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 56,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.5%. In July 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 4,516,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operation and Apparent Demand**: The operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06%. In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 4,478,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In July 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 20.8925 million, and the net export weight was 106,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 3.3% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In August 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway has driven the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the relatively high operation rate of starting batteries. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has driven the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 2,400 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 38,100 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 35,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased marginally. The investment funds in LME lead turned slightly net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The position perspective indicates a bullish trend [80].