1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a complex situation. The increase in purchases by battery enterprises and the inflow of imported lead ingots have an impact on the market. Although the spot market gets short - term support from downstream battery enterprises' low - price stockpiling and the low operating rate of secondary smelting enterprises, the high Shanghai - London ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in battery exports. Also, the previous high oil prices have put pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector, and there is a possibility of further decline in lead prices [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.57% to 16,553 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 113,100 lots. The LME Lead 3S rose 6.5 to 1,907.5 dollars/ton, with a total position of 177,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and secondary refined lead was 16,325 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap lead. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,775 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons. As of March 26, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from March 23. The domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 14,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 135 dollars/ton. Cross - market Structure: The Shanghai - London ratio after exchange adjustment was 1.256, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 591.16 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 41,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 460,000 tons, equivalent to 30.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting operating rate was 62.81%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 114,000 tons, the secondary smelting operating rate was 30.00%, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 14,000 tons. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.92% [11]. - The visible inventory of lead concentrates and lead waste has increased. The primary smelting operating rate is stable, and the secondary smelting operating rate has recovered. The factory inventories of primary and secondary lead ingots and the social inventory of lead ingots have all declined. The spot market gets short - term support, but the high Shanghai - London ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in battery exports. There is a possibility of further decline in lead prices [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - Import Data: In February 2026, the net import of lead concentrates was 128,500 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.4% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 252,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.8%. The net import of silver concentrates in February 2026 was 148,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 17.4%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 328,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.3% [15]. - Production Data: In February 2026, China's lead concentrate production was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 9.7% and a month - on - month change of - 29.4%. From January to February, the total production of lead concentrates was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. The net import of lead - containing ores in February 2026 was 136,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 282,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.3% [17]. - Total Supply: In February 2026, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 226,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of - 17.2%. From January to February, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 499,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. In January 2026, the overseas lead ore production was 242,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.74% and a month - on - month change of - 11.97% [19]. - Inventory and TC: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 41,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 460,000 tons, equivalent to 30.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton, with TC stabilizing [21][23]. - Smelting: The primary smelting operating rate was 62.81%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. In February 2026, China's primary lead production was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 17.1%. From January to February, the total production of primary lead ingots was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3.3. Secondary Supply - Raw Materials and Production: The waste lead inventory at the secondary end was 114,000 tons. The secondary smelting operating rate was 30.00%, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 14,000 tons. In February 2026, China's secondary lead production was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.9% and a month - on - month change of - 40.4%. From January to February, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - Trade and Total Supply: In February 2026, the net export of lead ingots was - 36,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2857.0% and a month - on - month change of - 7.2%. From January to February, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 74,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 540.7%. In February 2026, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 537,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.7% and a month - on - month change of - 28.0%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 1,283,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 17.1% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - Battery Demand: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.92%. In February 2026, the apparent demand for lead ingots in China was 474,400 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.6% and a month - on - month change of - 31.2%. From January to February, the cumulative apparent demand for lead ingots was 1,164,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.5% [38]. - Battery Exports: In February 2026, the net export volume of lead - acid batteries was 1,429,540 units, the net export of other batteries was 956,020 units, and the net export of starting batteries was 473,520 units, a year - on - year change of 16.4% and a month - on - month change of - 24.8%. From January to February, the total net export volume of lead - acid batteries was 3,330,960 units, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.9% [41]. - Inventory: In February 2026, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories decreased from 23.5 days to 23 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 40.74 days to 33.35 days [43]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production drags down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of express delivery and take - out delivery scenarios drives the improvement of new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium - iron - phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of traditional vehicles provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increase in the number of communication base - stations and 5G base - stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Balance: In February 2026, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 62,900 tons. From January to February, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 107,000 tons [62]. - Overseas Balance: In January 2026, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of 64,400 tons [65]. 3.6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons. As of March 26, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from March 23. The domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [70]. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 14,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 135 dollars/ton [73]. - Cross - market Structure: The Shanghai - London ratio after exchange adjustment was 1.256, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 591.16 yuan/ton [76]. - Position: The net short position of investment funds in LME lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Although the losses of secondary lead enterprises and their delayed resumption of production support the lead price, downstream demand is weak, and the pressure of imported lead inflow persists [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In February 2026, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 128,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The import volume in the first two months of this year increased significantly year - on - year. Domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable. The domestic monthly processing fee in March was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160--140 US dollars/dry ton, also with no month - on - month change. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150--120 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [2]. - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead output was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The output of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 20, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 62.59%, a week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 39.57%, a week - on - week increase of 10.42%. The price of waste batteries is firm, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have expanded, with possible production cuts and delayed resumption of production. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and refined lead imports are in a continuous profitable state, with overseas lead surplus pressure flowing into the domestic market [3]. - **Consumption**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces last week was 73.92%, a week - on - week increase of 0.46%. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises is relatively stable. The terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is mediocre. Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. Considering the consumption off - season in April, it is expected that the domestic lead ingot social inventory will stop falling and start to rise in mid - to - late April [4]. - **Spot**: As of the week of March 20, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the weekend lead spot basis was a premium of 165 yuan. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 39.51 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 20, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 400 tons to 284,100 tons, with the LME inventory oscillating at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9,939 tons to 66,100 tons. As of March 23, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decline, at a moderately high level [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply is loose, with high - level oscillation of LME lead inventory and deep spot discounts. Overseas mine supply is gradually recovering, but the release period is mainly in the second half of the year. Although the import volume of lead ore has increased significantly year - on - year, the recovery of domestic lead ore supply is still limited, and the domestic lead ore supply shortage has not improved, with processing fees remaining at a low level. Primary lead enterprises have high production enthusiasm, and the operating rate of primary lead has steadily recovered. Currently, the price of waste batteries is firm, secondary lead enterprises have large losses, and although the operating rate has increased month - on - month, the resumption of production of some enterprises has been delayed. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and the domestic import profit has expanded, with overseas lead surplus pressure shifting to the domestic market. - Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. The second quarter is the off - season for lead consumption, demand will weaken month - on - month, and inventory may rise again. - Overall, the large losses of secondary lead enterprises, their delayed resumption of production, and production cuts support the lead price. However, downstream demand is general, and under the pressure of imported inflows, the low - level oscillation of lead is difficult to change. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of secondary lead and the domestic inventory situation [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The re - inflation narrative restarts, and the strong US dollar suppresses the lead price. The supply of electrolytic lead refineries recovers rapidly, while the increasing losses of secondary lead refineries dampen production willingness. However, the inflow of imported crude lead increases, and overall supply continues to rise. The demand side is weak, and battery enterprises have no concentrated restocking. The supply recovery is stronger than the demand recovery, and the lead ingot inventory accumulates at a high level, dragging down the lead price. In the short term, both macro and micro supports are limited, and it is expected that the lead price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [3][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From March 6th to March 13th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 16,775 yuan/ton to 16,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 1,946 US dollars/ton to 1,903 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.62 to 8.70. The上期所库存 increased by 9,220 tons to 76,049 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 1,400 tons to 284,500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 7.65 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 175 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead, PB2604, continued to decline in shock, closing at 16,555 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 1.31%. The LME lead fell below the 1,950 US dollars/ton line, with a decline of 2.21%, closing at 1,903 US dollars/ton. In the spot market, on March 13th, the price of Chihong lead in the Shanghai market was 16,545 - 16,595 yuan/ton, with a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The supply of secondary lead refineries was scarce due to losses, and the price of secondary refined lead was at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [5] 3. Industry News - On March 13, 2026, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 250 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee was - 145 US dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining flat month - on - month. The pig - gongtang lead - zinc ore concentrator of Hezhang Dingshengxin Mining Development Co., Ltd. is planned to enter trial production in July this year [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, enterprise operating rates, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead concentrate weekly processing fees, secondary refined lead production, electrolytic lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import and export profit and loss [9][12][14][17][21][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently under pressure, with low recycling start - up rates and significant spot pressure. The lead price may decline further due to insufficient domestic demand for lead ingots and an increase in the concentration of short - selling positions. The subsequent situation of the recovery of recycling smelter start - up rates needs to be observed [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.30% to 16,586 yuan/ton last Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 141,800 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 4.5 to 1,933 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 173,000 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and recycled refined lead is 16,425 yuan/ton, with a flat refined - scrap price difference. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries is 9,925 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory is 67,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 12 was 77,700 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from March 9. The domestic primary basis is - 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - consecutive contract is - 20 yuan/ton. The overseas structure shows that the LME lead ingot inventory is 284,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants are 4,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is - 47.22 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is - 137.1 US dollars/ton. The cross - market structure shows that the ex - exchange rate Shanghai - London ratio is 1.246, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots is 511.55 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory is 39,000 tons, and the factory inventory is 468,000 tons, equivalent to 31.4 days. The lead concentrate import TC is - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC is 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary start - up rate is 61.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory is 29,000 tons. At the recycling end, the lead waste inventory is 102,000 tons, the recycling start - up rate is 23.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory is 19,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate is 71.68% [11]. - **Market Outlook**: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has slightly declined, and the lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of primary smelting has回调 due to the silver price, the primary lead start - up rate is gradually recovering, and the primary factory inventory is declining. The visible inventory of lead waste continues to decline, the profit of recycled lead smelting is under great pressure, the start - up rate of recycled lead smelters has limited recovery, and the recycled factory inventory is declining. The start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has recovered, but procurement has not improved. The inventory of distributors in February has been well reduced, and the pressure on finished product inventory has been relieved. Currently, the lead ingot import window is wide open, the export of lead - acid batteries has decreased, and the overseas surplus of deliverable inventory flowing into the domestic market has a suppressing effect. Although the inventory reduction of battery finished products has improved, battery enterprises still have not carried out large - scale spot purchases. Insufficient domestic demand for lead ingots and an increase in the concentration of short - selling positions may lead to a further decline in lead prices [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production Data**: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrates was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In February 2026, China's lead concentrate production was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 9.7% and a month - on - month change of - 29.4%. From January to February, the total production of lead concentrates was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17]. - **Total Supply and Overseas Production**: In December 2025, China's total supply of lead concentrates was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In December 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 275,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.15% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to December, the total production of lead ore was 2,958,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.16% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory is 39,000 tons, and the factory inventory is 468,000 tons, equivalent to 31.4 days. The lead concentrate import TC is - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC is 250 yuan/metal ton, and the lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up and Production**: The primary start - up rate is 61.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory is 29,000 tons. In February 2025, China's primary lead production was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 17.1%. From January to February, the total production of primary lead ingots was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3.3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Production**: At the recycling end, the lead waste inventory is 102,000 tons. The recycling start - up rate is 23.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory is 19,000 tons. In February 2025, China's recycled lead production was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.9% and a month - on - month change of - 40.4%. From January to February, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - **Import and Total Supply**: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate is 71.68%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - **Battery Export**: In December 2025, the net export quantity of lead - containing batteries was 1,664,900 units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, and the cumulative net export year - on - year change was - 13.06% [41]. - **Inventory Changes**: In February 2026, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 23.5 days to 23 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in distributors decreased from 40.74 days to 33.35 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly drags down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drives the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Lead Ingot Balance**: In December 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 12,400 tons [61]. - **Overseas Lead Ingot Balance**: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons. From January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [64]. 3.6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory is 67,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 12 was 77,700 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from March 9. The domestic primary basis is - 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - consecutive contract is - 20 yuan/ton [69]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory is 284,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants are 4,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is - 47.22 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is - 137.1 US dollars/ton [72]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange rate Shanghai - London ratio is 1.246, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots is 511.55 yuan/ton [75]. - **Position Changes**: The net short position of LME lead investment funds has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In February, the lead price declined and then stabilized. Although there was significant inventory accumulation of lead ingots both at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the declining smelting profit of smelting enterprises may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and is expected to gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - From February 2nd to March 4th, the Shanghai lead weighted index fell 0.71% to 16,835 yuan/ton, and the total position of Shanghai lead increased slightly by 0.66 million lots to 11.15 million lots. The LME lead 3M contract fell 2.71% to 1,941 US dollars/ton, and the position of the LME lead 3M contract remained basically flat at 17.17 million lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,525 yuan/ton, the refined scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons. As of March 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 67,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to March 2nd. The domestic primary basis was -125 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was -80 yuan/ton. Overseas structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 5,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -48.23 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -132.5 US dollars/ton. Cross - market structure: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.251, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 569.79 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 52,000 tons, the factory inventory was 487,000 tons, equivalent to 31.9 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was -145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrates was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 51.47%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 48,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 104,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 20.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 29.26% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December, the net import of silver concentrates was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6% [15]. - In February 2026, China's lead concentrate output was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -9.7% and a month - on - month change of -29.4%. From January to February, the total lead concentrate output was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [17]. - In December 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In December 2025, the overseas lead ore output was 275,900 tons, a year - on - year change of -1.15% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to December, the total lead ore output was 2,958,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -1.16% [19]. - The port inventory of lead concentrates was 52,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 487,000 tons, equivalent to 31.9 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was -145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrates was 250 yuan/metal ton, with a slight increase in lead concentrate TC [21][23]. - The primary smelting start - up rate was 51.47%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 48,000 tons. In February 2025, China's primary lead output was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of -17.1%. From January to February, the total primary lead ingot output was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 104,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 20.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,000 tons. In February 2025, China's recycled lead output was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of -2.9% and a month - on - month change of -40.4%. From January to February, the total recycled lead ingot output was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was -28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was -146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -22.13%. In December, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of -1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 29.3%. In December 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of -0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - In December 2025, the net export quantity of lead - containing batteries was 16.649 million, a year - on - year change of -35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million, and the cumulative net export year - on - year change was -13.06% [41]. - In January 2026, the finished product inventory of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 21.5 days to 23.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 43.6 days to 40.74 days [43]. - In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. The automobile sector's contribution to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. With the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, some large enterprises use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, but the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the development of communication technology has driven the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - In December 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 4,000 tons, and from January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 12,400 tons [61]. - In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons, and from January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [64]. 6. Price Outlook - Domestic structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons. As of March 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 67,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to March 2nd. The domestic primary basis was -125 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was -80 yuan/ton [69]. - Overseas structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 5,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -48.23 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -132.5 US dollars/ton [71]. - Cross - market structure: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.251, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 569.79 yuan/ton [74]. - The net short position of LME lead investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - This report does not mention the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The lead market is currently in a state of weak industrial conditions, with both smelting finished - product inventory and social inventory rising. Although the panic in the market has been somewhat alleviated, the price of the non - ferrous sector still fluctuates greatly [11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From January 5th to February 3rd, lead prices first rose and then fell sharply, with the Shanghai lead weighted index dropping 4.00%. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,400 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,425 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 33,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. As of February 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 45,900 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from February 2nd [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 15,800 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 51.45 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 142.1 US dollars/ton [11] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the lead disk was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 268.7 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: On the primary side, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 150 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. On the recycled side, the recycled lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. On the demand side, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 69.0% [11] 3.2 Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. The cumulative net import of lead concentrates from January to December was 1.4253 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. The net import of silver concentrates in December was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. The cumulative net import of silver concentrates from January to December was 1.931 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. The cumulative production of lead concentrates from January to December was 1.6582 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. The net import of lead - containing ores in December was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. The cumulative net import of lead - containing ores from January to December was 1.6277 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17] - **Total Supply**: In December 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. The cumulative supply of lead concentrates from January to December was 3.2859 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In November 2025, overseas lead ore production was 264,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.49% and a month - on - month change of 1.85%. The cumulative production of lead ore from January to November was 2.6749 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.42% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 150 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Production**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. In January 2026, China's primary lead production was 342,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 17.92% and a month - on - month change of 2.86% [26] 3.3 Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Production**: The recycled lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. In January 2026, China's recycled lead production was 365,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 25.13% and a month - on - month change of 2.96% [31][33] - **Import and Total Supply**: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. The cumulative net export of lead ingots from January to December was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. The total domestic supply of lead ingots in December was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. The cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots from January to December was 7.9568 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 69.0%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. The cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots from January to December was 7.9691 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38] - **Battery Export**: In December 2025, the net export volume of lead - containing batteries was 1.6649 million units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. The total net export of batteries from January to December was 213 million units, a cumulative net export year - on - year change of - 13.06% [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries for dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the continuous increase in the number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has driven a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In December 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 4,000 tons, and the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap from January to December was a shortage of 12,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons, and the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap from January to November was a surplus of 171,400 tons [64] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 33,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. As of February 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 45,900 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from February 2nd [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 15,800 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 51.45 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 142.1 US dollars/ton [71] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the lead disk was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 268.7 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Changes**: The net long position of investment funds in LME lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [80]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai lead market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The domestic supply and demand are both weak, with inventory accumulating at a low level. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the holiday situation of secondary lead and downstream enterprises, as well as changes in waste battery costs and domestic inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The domestic winter demand for lead concentrates is high, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at a low level. In February, the domestic monthly processing fee is 200 - 300 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the import monthly processing fee is - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 5 US dollars/dry ton. The domestic lead ore weekly processing fee is 200 - 300 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the import weekly processing fee is - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, a weekly decrease of 5 US dollars/dry ton [2]. Supply - In December 2025, the output of primary lead was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56%, higher than expected. The output of secondary refined lead was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 66.85%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%. The operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 50.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The import window for refined lead remains open, but the import profit has slightly narrowed [3]. Consumption - This week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 70.77%, basically unchanged from last week. The electric bicycle battery market is the weakest in consumption, and some enterprises plan to reduce production and advance the Spring Festival holiday. The domestic consumption of the automotive battery market is okay, but export orders are weak. The downstream battery enterprises' enthusiasm for stocking before the Spring Festival is lower than in previous years, and some enterprises plan to take an early holiday, leading to an accumulation of social inventory [4]. Spot - As of the week of January 23, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated between premiums and discounts. The lead spot basis was at a premium of 55 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot continued to be in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 44.56 US dollars last weekend [4]. Inventory - As of the week of January 23, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 8,825 tons to 215,200 tons, and the inventory was fluctuating at a high level. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 7,693 tons to 29,351 tons. As of January 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations reached 34,900 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at a relatively low level in the past four years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is increasing, with the apparent supply of domestic lead ingots reaching 72.39 million tons in November 2025, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is marginally warming up, but the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Currently, the lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds is intensifying. Although the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - loose cycle, the subsequent trend of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.37% at 17,473 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME 3S lead price fell 8 to $2,075/ton, with a total position of 174,800 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [11] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.5% and a month - on - month increase of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.2% [15] - **Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.89% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 274,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.09% and a month - on - month increase of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 2,973,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.62% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.32% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: The recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 262.0% and a month - on - month increase of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.4%. The total domestic supply of lead ingots in November was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77%. In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%. From January to November, the total net lead - containing export of batteries was 19,680,580 units, and the cumulative net lead - containing export of batteries decreased by 10.47% year - on - year [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly affected the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [71] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased, the investment fund in LME lead turned net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds in terms of positions intensified [77]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic lead prices have risen due to supportive policies and positive market sentiment, while global lead prices are also buoyed by a weaker dollar and increased risk appetite in the stock market [1][2] - The Shanghai lead futures market saw a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 17,520 yuan per ton, up 120 yuan or 0.69%, and trading volume reaching 56,885 lots [1] - The current market for lead is characterized by a structural differentiation in supply, with primary lead production facing constraints due to tight concentrate availability and low processing fees, while recycled lead is limited by high costs and low operating rates [2] Group 2 - Demand in the lead battery sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, influenced by inventory adjustments from end-of-year vehicle manufacturers and the transition period of new national standards, leading to reduced operating rates [2] - The overall market is currently subdued, with transactions primarily consisting of spot trades, and sellers are increasing discounts to recover funds, reflecting typical pre-holiday seasonal trading characteristics [2] - Short-term price support is provided by low social inventory, while the pressure from factory inventory and seasonal demand constraints may limit upward price movement, indicating that lead prices are likely to exhibit a predominantly strong trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In December, lead prices fluctuated and rebounded. The domestic lead price is near the upper edge of the oscillation range, with high concentration of long - position funds. As the feverish sentiment in precious metals fades, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In December, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.52% to 17,355 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 0.92 million lots to 8.61 million lots. The LME 3M lead contract rose 0.98% to $2,005.5/ton, and the total position increased by 0.97 million lots to 17.86 million lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap spread of 125 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton. Domestic social inventory remained flat at 17,400 tons. - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 239,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 76,800 tons. The outer - market cash - 3S contract basis was - $37.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $99.2/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.231, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 447.26 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 54,000 tons, and factory inventory was 478,000 tons, equivalent to 32.5 days. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.11%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead scrap inventory was 89,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 38,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. On the demand side, the lead - battery start - up rate was 72.84% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrate in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.5% and a month - on - month change of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [15]. - **Production**: In November 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 136,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.8% and a month - on - month change of - 6.6%. From January to November, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,531,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November, the net import of lead - containing ore was 120,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,423,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.4% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 256,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 2.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.1%. From January to November, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,955,400 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9%. In September 2025, the global lead ore production was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total production of lead ore was 3,402,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19]. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 54,000 tons, and factory inventory was 478,000 tons, equivalent to 32.5 days [21]. - **Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate import TC was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary start - up rate was 67.11%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's primary lead production was 327,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to November, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,514,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.8% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, lead scrap inventory was 89,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 38,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's recycled lead production was 373,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.8%. From January to November, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,608,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.0% [33]. - **Lead Ingot Trade and Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 262.0% and a month - on - month change of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 32.4%. In November, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Lead - Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: On the demand side, the lead - battery start - up rate was 72.84%. In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.1452 million units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries increased by - 5.0% year - on - year [41]. - **Inventory Days**: In November 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - batteries in factories decreased from 24.5 days to 20.9 days, and the inventory days of lead - batteries in dealers decreased from 41.0 days to 40.7 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: - **Two - wheeled Vehicles**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles [47]. - **Automobiles**: The contribution of the automobile sector to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the start - up rate of lead - acid start - up batteries [49]. - **Base Stations**: The rapid development of communication technology has led to an increase in the number of communication base stations and 5G base stations, driving a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [52]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Lead Ingot Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 70 tons, and the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference from January to November was a shortage of - 8,400 tons [60]. - **Overseas Lead Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 48,900 tons, and the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference from January to September was a surplus of 1,700 tons [63]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis and Spread**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventory was 239,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 76,800 tons. The outer - market cash - 3S contract basis was - $37.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $99.2/ton [68][70]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.231, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 447.26 yuan/ton [73]. - **Position Analysis**: The net - long concentration of the top 20 positions in Shanghai lead was high. The LME lead investment fund seats turned net - short, and the net - short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the position perspective, the short - term guidance is neutral [76].