有色情绪退潮， 产业现状偏弱 铅月报 2026/02/06 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：1月铅价表现显著弱于板块走势，1月5日至2月3日期间，铅价上探后大幅下跌，沪铅加权累计下跌4.00%。SMM1#铅锭均价 16400元/吨，再生精铅均价16425元/吨，精废价差-25元/吨，废电动车电池均价9925元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：上期所铅锭期货库存录得3.38万吨，内盘原生基差-140元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-55元/吨。据钢联数据，2月5日全 国主要市场铅锭社会库存为4.59万吨，较2月2日增加0.69万吨。海外结构：LME铅锭库存录得23.29万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得1.58 万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-51.45美元/吨，3-15价差-142.1美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.222，铅锭进口盈亏为 26 ...

沪铅震荡偏弱延续 基本面变化 加工费：2025年12月铅精矿进口量约14.9万吨，环比增加35.8%，同比增加24.63%。铅矿进口量连续两个月环比走高，不过国内 冬季铅精矿市场需求高涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张延续，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步回落。2月国内月度加工200- 300元/吨，月度环比下降50元/吨；进口月度加工费位-160--140美元/干吨，月度环比下降5美元/干吨。现货加工费方面，国内 铅矿周度加工费为200-300元/吨，周度环比下降50元/吨；进口周度加工费为-160--140美元/干吨，周度环比下降5美元/干吨。 供应：SMM显示：2025年12月原生铅产量为33.27万吨，环比增加1.56%，同比增加1.56%，当月产量高于预期；2025年12月再生 精铅产量为26.84万吨，环比减少9.35%，同比增加0.83%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂开工率66.85%，周环比下滑0.19%。河南地 区开工稳定，个别小厂产量边际波动；湖南地区此前粗铅检修的冶炼厂生产恢复后电解铅产量小幅提产至稳定生产。另一冶炼 厂粗铅检修后电解铅产量周度下滑，但暂未完全停产；云南地区冶炼厂生产维持稳定； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is increasing, with the apparent supply of domestic lead ingots reaching 72.39 million tons in November 2025, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is marginally warming up, but the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Currently, the lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds is intensifying. Although the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - loose cycle, the subsequent trend of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.37% at 17,473 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME 3S lead price fell 8 to $2,075/ton, with a total position of 174,800 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [11] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.5% and a month - on - month increase of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.2% [15] - **Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.89% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 274,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.09% and a month - on - month increase of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 2,973,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.62% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.32% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: The recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 262.0% and a month - on - month increase of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.4%. The total domestic supply of lead ingots in November was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77%. In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%. From January to November, the total net lead - containing export of batteries was 19,680,580 units, and the cumulative net lead - containing export of batteries decreased by 10.47% year - on - year [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly affected the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [71] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased, the investment fund in LME lead turned net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds in terms of positions intensified [77]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic lead prices have risen due to supportive policies and positive market sentiment, while global lead prices are also buoyed by a weaker dollar and increased risk appetite in the stock market [1][2] - The Shanghai lead futures market saw a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 17,520 yuan per ton, up 120 yuan or 0.69%, and trading volume reaching 56,885 lots [1] - The current market for lead is characterized by a structural differentiation in supply, with primary lead production facing constraints due to tight concentrate availability and low processing fees, while recycled lead is limited by high costs and low operating rates [2] Group 2 - Demand in the lead battery sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, influenced by inventory adjustments from end-of-year vehicle manufacturers and the transition period of new national standards, leading to reduced operating rates [2] - The overall market is currently subdued, with transactions primarily consisting of spot trades, and sellers are increasing discounts to recover funds, reflecting typical pre-holiday seasonal trading characteristics [2] - Short-term price support is provided by low social inventory, while the pressure from factory inventory and seasonal demand constraints may limit upward price movement, indicating that lead prices are likely to exhibit a predominantly strong trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In December, lead prices fluctuated and rebounded. The domestic lead price is near the upper edge of the oscillation range, with high concentration of long - position funds. As the feverish sentiment in precious metals fades, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In December, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.52% to 17,355 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 0.92 million lots to 8.61 million lots. The LME 3M lead contract rose 0.98% to $2,005.5/ton, and the total position increased by 0.97 million lots to 17.86 million lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap spread of 125 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton. Domestic social inventory remained flat at 17,400 tons. - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 239,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 76,800 tons. The outer - market cash - 3S contract basis was - $37.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $99.2/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.231, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 447.26 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 54,000 tons, and factory inventory was 478,000 tons, equivalent to 32.5 days. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.11%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead scrap inventory was 89,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 38,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. On the demand side, the lead - battery start - up rate was 72.84% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrate in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.5% and a month - on - month change of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [15]. - **Production**: In November 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 136,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.8% and a month - on - month change of - 6.6%. From January to November, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,531,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November, the net import of lead - containing ore was 120,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,423,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.4% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 256,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 2.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.1%. From January to November, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,955,400 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9%. In September 2025, the global lead ore production was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total production of lead ore was 3,402,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19]. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 54,000 tons, and factory inventory was 478,000 tons, equivalent to 32.5 days [21]. - **Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate import TC was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary start - up rate was 67.11%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's primary lead production was 327,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to November, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,514,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.8% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, lead scrap inventory was 89,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 38,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's recycled lead production was 373,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.8%. From January to November, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,608,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.0% [33]. - **Lead Ingot Trade and Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 262.0% and a month - on - month change of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 32.4%. In November, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Lead - Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: On the demand side, the lead - battery start - up rate was 72.84%. In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.1452 million units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries increased by - 5.0% year - on - year [41]. - **Inventory Days**: In November 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - batteries in factories decreased from 24.5 days to 20.9 days, and the inventory days of lead - batteries in dealers decreased from 41.0 days to 40.7 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: - **Two - wheeled Vehicles**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles [47]. - **Automobiles**: The contribution of the automobile sector to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the start - up rate of lead - acid start - up batteries [49]. - **Base Stations**: The rapid development of communication technology has led to an increase in the number of communication base stations and 5G base stations, driving a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [52]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Lead Ingot Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 70 tons, and the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference from January to November was a shortage of - 8,400 tons [60]. - **Overseas Lead Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 48,900 tons, and the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference from January to September was a surplus of 1,700 tons [63]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis and Spread**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventory was 239,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 76,800 tons. The outer - market cash - 3S contract basis was - $37.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $99.2/ton [68][70]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.231, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 447.26 yuan/ton [73]. - **Position Analysis**: The net - long concentration of the top 20 positions in Shanghai lead was high. The LME lead investment fund seats turned net - short, and the net - short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the position perspective, the short - term guidance is neutral [76].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lead market will shift from a tight - balance to an inventory accumulation cycle. The domestic market will show an independent cost - defense trend due to the bottleneck of recycled lead raw materials, presenting a pattern of weak overseas and strong domestic markets. The expected trading range for the main contract of SHFE lead is around 16,200 - 18,200 yuan/ton, and for LME lead, it is about 1,950 - 2,200 US dollars/ton [2]. - On the supply side, primary lead will maintain high production driven by high by - product profits, contributing the main increment. Recycled lead production growth will stagnate due to a 10% - 15% loss in the effective supply of waste batteries caused by fiscal and tax compliance and reverse invoicing policies. The implicit tightening of raw materials will establish the cost line of recycled lead as a solid foundation for industry pricing [2]. - On the demand side, it enters an era dominated by existing stocks, with an expected growth rate of 1.5%. The relaxation of the weight limit for two - wheeled vehicles in the new national standard to 63 kg will boost the share of lead - acid batteries, effectively offsetting the substitution of lithium batteries. The global surplus of 102,000 tons will mainly accumulate overseas, while the domestic surplus will be only about 30,000 tons, meaning that domestic visible inventory will remain at a low level and the export window will be difficult to open [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, the lead price experienced a logical switch from cost - based pricing to macro - disturbances and then to supply - side contraction due to policies. The price center gradually increased in a wide - range fluctuation. In the fourth quarter, it showed a reverse - V shape, with the game between macro and industry intensifying again at the end of the year [3][6]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Supply Side 3.2.1 Mine End: Transition to Tight - Balance - In 2026, the global lead concentrate supply will enter a substantial recovery cycle, with the total output growth rate expected to reach an inflection point. The growth rate is expected to rise significantly to over 2.2% from the low - growth range of 0.7% - 1.3% in 2025, and the global total output of lead concentrate is expected to exceed 4.67 million tons. The supply - demand pattern will transition from a structural shortage to a tight - balance [9]. - The concentrated commissioning of overseas new and expanded projects is the primary driving force for supply growth in 2026, with an expected new increment of about 212,000 tons. China's import volume of lead concentrate is expected to increase slightly, and the frequency of import window openings may be better than in 2025 [12]. - Although the domestic mine end has capacity expansion plans, the actual output elasticity is limited due to compliance constraints. The new domestic lead concentrate capacity in 2026 is about 82,000 metal tons, but the self - sufficiency rate of the domestic raw material market is difficult to reverse fundamentally [14]. - The profit distribution pattern between mining and smelting is difficult to change fundamentally, and low processing fees (TC) will become the norm, providing cost support for lead prices [16]. 3.2.2 Lead Ingot: Moderate Recovery and Structural Differentiation of Supply - Globally, the supply system of refined lead in 2026 is entering a slow - recovery channel. The growth of total output is mainly driven by the recovery outside China. The global refined lead output is expected to increase by 0.8% - 1.2% year - on - year, approaching 13.5 million tons [18]. - In the Chinese market, the growth momentum of supply is slowing down. The domestic refined lead output in 2026 is expected to be about 7.8 million tons (with a floating range of 40,000 tons), and the year - on - year growth rate will narrow to 1.7% - 2.0% [18]. - In the smelting structure, primary lead shows strong production resilience and will be the core contributor to supply increment in 2026, with an expected output growth rate of 2.5% - 3.0%. Recycled lead is facing cost and policy challenges and is the biggest risk point for supply reduction. Its output growth is expected to be only 0.6% - 1.0%, or even show local contraction [20][22]. - In 2026, the smelting end will show a clear structural differentiation of strong primary lead and weak recycled lead, and the price center of lead will be firmly supported by the marginal cost of recycled lead [24]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Demand Side 3.3.1 Overall Consumption: Rigid Support and Marginal Differentiation under Stock Dominance - In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of China's refined lead consumption is expected to narrow to about 1.5%, and the global demand growth rate will drop to 0.9%. The domestic lead consumption has rigid support, and the overall demand will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation pattern with a rigid bottom and limited upward elasticity [26]. 3.3.2 Lead - Acid Batteries: Differentiated Start - Up and Structural Reconstruction of Exports - In 2025, the lead - acid battery production showed a significant feature of differentiated start - up rates among different types and seasonal recovery. The overall industry's comprehensive start - up rate decreased compared with 2024, with traction batteries being the core support in the second half of the year, while starting and stationary batteries were weak [27]. - In 2025, the external demand for lead - acid batteries declined, and the export volume recorded a negative growth for the first time in recent years. The export price advantage was small, and the export structure changed significantly. The export volume to the United States and some Middle Eastern countries decreased sharply, while the export to Vietnam increased significantly [29]. - In 2025, the inventory in the industrial chain was mismatched, and the inventory pressure was transferred from the production end to the channel end. The battery factory's inventory decreased, while the dealer's inventory reached a historical high, which may overdraw the restocking potential in the first quarter of 2026 [31]. 3.3.3 Electric Bicycles: Policy Dividend Switch and Technological Return of "Lithium Retreat and Lead Advance" - In 2025, the electric bicycle market showed a "policy - driven" recovery, and the "trade - in" policy boosted the demand for lead - acid power batteries [33]. - In 2026, the core driving force of the industry will shift from fiscal subsidies to industrial standards. The revision of the new national standard for electric bicycles will release long - term institutional dividends, and the market share of lead - acid batteries is expected to stabilize and rebound [34][35]. - The lead consumption in the electric bicycle sector in 2026 is expected to grow moderately, with an estimated growth rate of lead consumption in the range of 1.5% - 2.0% [35]. 3.4 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Inventory 3.4.1 Global Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the global lead market will show a surplus. The growth of mine production is mainly from overseas project expansion, and the growth of refined lead production shows a pattern of strong primary lead and weak recycled lead. The growth of refined lead consumption is mainly supported by Europe, the United States, and Vietnam [39]. 3.4.2 Domestic Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the domestic lead market will have a marginal surplus of about 30,000 tons. The consumption growth rate is expected to be 1.5%, and the supply - demand balance will be affected by the production of primary and recycled lead and net imports [39]. 3.4.3 Inventory: Differentiation between Domestic and Overseas - In 2025, the global lead visible inventory showed a significant regional mismatch, with LME inventory accumulating to a historical high and domestic social inventory remaining at a low level. In 2026, the global supply - demand surplus is expected to expand, and the high overseas inventory will suppress the LME lead price. The domestic visible inventory is difficult to accumulate substantially, and the low domestic inventory will support the SHFE lead price [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Lead ore inventory remains basically flat, primary lead smelting operating rate declines marginally, lead scrap inventory drops slightly, secondary lead smelting operating rate continues to rise, and downstream battery manufacturers' operating rate increases marginally. China's lead ingot social inventory stays at a relatively low level, upstream factory inventory declines marginally, but the monthly spread of SHFE lead remains low. With the ebbing of non - ferrous metal sentiment and low positions in SHFE lead, lead prices are expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.14% at 17,134 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 76,000 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S dropped 4.5 to 1,984.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 170,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 17,000 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, China's social lead inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 22,900 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,700 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 75 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 235,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 110,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 48.25 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 99.2 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio was 1.225, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 297.67 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 34,000 tons, factory inventory was 471,000 tons, equivalent to 31.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary lead smelting operating rate was 65.52%, and the primary lead ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. At the secondary end, lead scrap inventory was 98,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 47,000 tons, and the secondary lead ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 74.64% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1.1673 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1.5079 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [15] - **Domestic Production**: In November 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 136,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.8% and a month - on - month change of - 6.6%. From January to November, the total lead concentrate output was 1.5319 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1.3035 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [17] - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2.6988 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In September 2025, the global lead ore output was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total global lead ore output was 3.4021 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 34,000 tons, factory inventory was 471,000 tons, equivalent to 31.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary lead smelting operating rate was 65.52%, and the primary lead ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In November 2025, China's primary lead output was 327,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to November, the total primary lead ingot output was 3.5145 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.8% [26] 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, lead scrap inventory was 98,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 47,000 tons, and the secondary lead ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's secondary lead output was 373,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.8%. From January to November, the total secondary lead ingot output was 3.6084 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.0% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6.5172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 74.64%. In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 6.5264 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.1452 million units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 5.0% year - on - year [43] - **Inventory Days**: In November 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories decreased from 24.5 days to 20.9 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 41.0 days to 40.7 days [45] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Total Lead Ingot Inventory**: Not elaborated in a summarized way in the text, but relevant data is presented through various inventory charts - **China's Monthly Lead Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - **Overseas Monthly Lead Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 48,900 tons. From January to September, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 17,000 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, China's social lead inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 22,900 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,700 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 75 yuan/ton [71] - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 235,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 110,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 48.25 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 99.2 dollars/ton [74] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio was 1.225, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 297.67 yuan/ton [77] - **Position and Funds**: The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE lead turned slightly net long, the net long position of investment funds in LME lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80]

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Low Inventory and Marginal Decrease in Supply Lead to Strong and Volatile Lead Prices [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a supply - demand imbalance. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, with domestic and imported ore markets facing different challenges. The smelting end has both production increases and decreases due to maintenance and other factors. The consumption end, especially the automotive battery sector, has improved. With low inventory and increased smelting costs, short - term lead prices may oscillate strongly in a range. Traders are advised to hold profitable long positions and be cautious of macro - factors, while waiting on arbitrage and options [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee is 300 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fee is - 145 dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market is stable, with imported ore remaining tight. There are disputes in the 2026 long - term contract price negotiation. The market circulation of domestic ore is scarce as most smelters have pre - ordered fourth - quarter supplies [4]. - **Smelting**: The SMM three - province primary lead smelter operating rate is 65.92%, a 0.60% week - on - week decline. Some smelters in different regions have production changes due to maintenance. The SMM four - province recycled lead weekly operating rate is 48.37%, a 0.13% decline [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province lead battery enterprise weekly comprehensive operating rate is 74.46%, a 1.07% week - on - week increase. The automotive battery market has improved due to year - end production targets and approaching peak seasons [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 4, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory is 23,600 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from November 27 and 7,100 tons from December 1 [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and beware of macro - factors; wait on arbitrage and options [4]. 1.2 - 1.5 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [5][8][11][14] 2. Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Include data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, import profits and losses, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates [19][23] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Recycled - Involve the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and recycled lead smelter raw material inventory [31] 3. Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Covers global refined lead balance, production, and demand [38] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Includes import and export profits and losses, volumes, and net exports [45] 3.3 - 3.4 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise - Involve primary lead smelting enterprise profits, including processing fees, smelting profits, and production data such as operating rates and output [46][49] 3.5 - 3.6 Recycled Lead - Include recycled lead enterprise costs, profits, and supply data such as operating rates and output [52][61] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Composed of domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead output, recycled lead output, and refined lead net exports [65] 4. Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead Battery - Contains lead battery enterprise operating rates, dealer and enterprise finished - product inventory, and import and export volumes [72] 4.2 Lead Alloy and Its Plates - Involve lead alloy prices and import and export data of lead alloys, lead plates, and other lead plates [75] 4.3 - 4.4 Other Demand Areas - Include data on the automotive industry (production, exports, and production structure), and production data of motorcycles, communication construction, and power projects [79][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the lead price rose first and then fell. From November 3rd to December 4th, the weighted Shanghai lead contract closed down 0.81% to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of Shanghai lead dropped significantly by 39,600 lots to 80,100 lots. The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, with the current social inventory only at 21,600 tons, and the deliverable goods were relatively scarce. The lead ore's visible inventory increased, but the primary smelting operating rate declined, while the secondary smelting operating rate continued to rise. The weekly operating rate of downstream battery enterprises increased marginally. Considering the positive sentiment in the non - ferrous metal industry during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, it is expected that the lead price will be strong in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From November 3rd to December 4th, the weighted Shanghai lead contract closed down 0.81% to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the total open interest dropped by 39,600 lots to 80,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,100 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 17,075 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 25 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 128,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.64 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 90.6 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 240.61 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. At the secondary end, the lead scrap inventory was 102,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. The lead - acid battery operating rate at the demand end was 73.39% [11]. 3.2 Primary Supply - **Raw Material Supply**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1.1673 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. The net import of silver concentrate in October was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1.5079 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. The domestic lead concentrate output in October was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total lead concentrate production was 1.3953 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. The net import of lead - containing ores in October was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1.3035 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, the total supply of Chinese lead concentrate was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 2.6988 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In September 2025, the global lead ore output was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total lead ore production was 3.4021 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting and Production**: The primary operating rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. In October 2025, the domestic primary lead output was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total primary lead ingot production was 3.1869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26]. 3.3 Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: The lead scrap inventory at the secondary end was 102,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In October 2025, the domestic secondary lead output was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total secondary lead ingot production was 3.2351 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33]. - **Total Supply and Trade**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the domestic total lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply was 6.5172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The lead - acid battery operating rate was 73.39%. In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the domestic cumulative apparent demand for lead ingots was 6.5264 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1.61452 million, the net export weight was 84,600 tons, and the estimated net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand was expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles were gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles ensured a high replacement demand. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons, and from January to October, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 48,900 tons, and from January to September, the overseas cumulative refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 1,700 tons [66]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 25 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 128,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.64 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 90.6 US dollars/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 240.61 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased slightly, the net long position of investment funds in London lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance was bullish [80].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - From the perspective of industrial data, the visible inventory of lead ore has increased, but the smelting start - up rate of primary lead has declined, while that of secondary lead has continued to rise. The weekly start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased marginally. In terms of funds, after two consecutive weeks of decline, the lead price has returned to the oscillation center of 17,000 yuan. Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, and the short - term lead price is expected to be strong [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.77% at 17,087 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 73,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME Lead 3S rose 13 to $1,990/ton with a total position of 166,200 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and secondary refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. The net import of silver concentrate in October was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. The net import of lead - containing ore in October was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total supply of lead concentrate was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting and Production**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In October 2025, China's secondary lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33]. - **Net Export and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In October 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1,614,520 units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries for dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In October 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In August 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Basis and Spread**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts [71]. - **Overseas Basis and Spread**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton [74]. - **Internal - External Spread**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Lead decreased significantly, the net long position of investment funds in LME Lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].