张世骄（联系人） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 有色氛围积极， 下游消费转强 铅月报 从业资格号：F03120988 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 2025/10/10 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：9月1日至10月10日期间，沪铅指数震荡上行，收涨1.57%至17140元/吨，总持仓减少0.46万手。伦铅收涨1.63%至 2026.5美元/吨。截至报告期末，SMM1#铅锭均价16800元/吨，再生精铅均价16775元/吨，精废价差25元/吨，废电动车电池均价 10000元/吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得3.01万吨，内盘原生基差-120元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-15元/吨。LME铅锭库存录 得23.61万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得4.96万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-37.3美元/吨，3-15价差-74.2美元/吨。剔汇后盘面沪伦 比价录得1.193，铅锭进口盈亏为-358.36元/吨。据钢 ...

海晏河清，时雨逢春 ——4Q25铅观点与策略 东证衍生品研究院 有色金属分析师 魏林峻 从业资格号： F03111542 投资咨询号：Z0021721 铅四季度观点与策略 3. 基本面或强于三季度——锚定下游大厂战略与拿货节奏 • 沪铅评级：震荡 • 区间走势：【16500，17800】，窄幅震荡+阶段性中小级别行情。 • 核心逻辑：1. 供应矛盾放大——原生再生的原料紧缺问题均将更深演绎 2. 需求谨慎转好——10月旺季改善 vs. 透支消费成品累库+出口承压 • 4Q观点：铅精矿和废电瓶紧缺加剧，内需在政策提振消费背景下有阶段性转好预期， 出口需求或延续承压。沪铅震荡中枢或有上移，有可能会随着消费转好，而出现中小 级别上涨行情，波动率或较三季度有所放大，操作上低多安全边际更高，需重点关注 大厂生产战略。 • 交易思路：单边跟随需求阶段性低多，内外比价推荐以区间操作为主。 • 策略推介：单边：短期建议关注逢低布局近月多单机会，中线锚定需求变化。 套利：月差有阶段性转B可能，内外比价上方阈值或在粗铅进口窗口。 套保：锚定需求节奏，长线买入套保。 • 风险提示：下游生产计划变动，宏观风险，需求超预期疲软。 铅精 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures being active but falling 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - On the supply side, some primary lead smelting enterprises in certain regions entered the centralized maintenance stage, causing the primary lead output to continue to decline. The raw material market is in a tight - balance state, with lead concentrate processing fees continuously decreasing and mostly sold on a pre - sale basis, increasing the cost for smelters to obtain raw materials and further restricting primary lead output. For recycled lead, affected by environmental inspections and the decline in waste battery recycling efficiency, the release of recycled lead production capacity has slowed down. There is not much inventory of waste batteries in the market, and the arrival of goods at smelters is not good. Enterprises mainly focus on fulfilling long - term orders, and the overall operating rate remains low, continuously restricting recycled lead output. However, with the repair of production profits and the increase in the quantity of imported raw materials, some enterprises have the expectation of resuming production, but it is expected to be in early October, having limited impact on next week's supply. Overall, lead supply shows a stable and rising trend [7]. - On the demand side, lead - acid batteries, as the main consumption area of lead, have relatively stable demand for automobile starting batteries. Although the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is gradually warming up, in reality, when prices rise, spot transactions are average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. After large battery enterprises' procurement gradually ended this week before the National Day, small and medium - sized factories are mostly cautious and have low willingness to receive goods. However, the energy - storage demand in emerging fields shows a good trend, making up for the shortage of demand in traditional fields to a certain extent. But overall, the overall demand has not shown an obvious explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [7]. - From the domestic and foreign inventory data, both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. The overall inventory decline indicates that demand has driven inventory depletion to a certain extent. The social inventory of domestic lead ingots has declined recently, providing some support for lead prices. However, as the pre - National Day inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises comes to an end, if demand cannot continue to follow up, the subsequent changes in inventory still need to be concerned [7]. - Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. On the supply side, the output of primary lead and recycled lead is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term, providing some support for prices. On the demand side, although the overall performance is average, it will not decline significantly under the background of "Golden September and Silver October" and the drive of emerging energy - storage field demand. The decline in inventory also provides some bottom - line support for prices. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for lead prices [7]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended that the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, and the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures fell 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is showing a stable and rising trend, while demand is in a slow recovery stage. The overall inventory decline provides some support for lead prices. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Comparison**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead decreased slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio increased. As of September 25, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was reported at $1,938 per ton, and the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was reported at 17,060 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was reported at 8.71 [9][13]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and the foreign premium and discount strengthened. As of September 25, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was reported at - 110 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was reported at - 36.8 dollars per ton [15][17]. - **Inventory**: Both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of lead was reported at 4.22 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons; the total inventory of LME lead was reported at 219,550 tons, a decrease of 750 tons. The number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was reported at 35,584 tons, a decrease of 13,791 tons [32][36]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - **Primary Lead**: As of September 18, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 80.56%, a decrease of 0.96% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 0 tons compared with last week [23]. - **Recycled Lead**: As of September 18, 2025, the domestic output of recycled lead in major production areas was reported at 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the average utilization rate of recycled lead production capacity was reported at 43.63%, a month - on - month increase of 8.78%. Near the Double Festival, the recycling of scrapped batteries increased, and the output increased slightly [27][30]. - **Trade**: In August 2025, the export volume of refined lead was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import volume of refined lead was 3,417 tons. The import volume of lead alloy was 12,784 tons. The import volume of lead concentrate was about 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 28.3%. The total import volume of lead ingots was 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons, an increase of 106.70%; a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons, a decrease of 41.98%. Among them, the import volume of refined lead was 3,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons, an increase of 317.07%; a year - on - year decrease of 10,600 tons, a decrease of 75.63%. The import volume of crude lead was 10,030 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,340 tons, an increase of 76.27%; a year - on - year increase of 1,090 tons, an increase of 12.27% [40]. Demand - side - **Processing Fees**: As of September 18, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was reported at 370 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was reported at - 90 dollars per thousand tons. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee declined, and the imported ore processing fee remained flat, which was generally negative for domestic production [43][45]. - **Automobile Market**: In August 2025, the overall automobile sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. From January to August, the cumulative automobile sales reached 21.128 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%. The sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all showed growth trends. The new - energy vehicle sales in August were 1.395 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.54% and a year - on - year increase of 27%. The new - energy vehicle sales from January to August were 9.62 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of the total new automobile sales in August and 45.5% from January to August. The growth of automobile production and sales is accelerating, and the process of lithium replacing lead is accelerating, leading to a decline in lead demand [47][50]. - **Battery Market**: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of waste lead electric storage 48V/20AH in Zhejiang was reported at 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,920 yuan per ton. The battery price remained flat, and the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased [52][55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The primary lead ore's apparent inventory accumulation rate is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has declined again. Raw material shortages are suppressing primary smelting operations. On the secondary lead side, the price of scrap materials has dropped, the profit of secondary smelting has recovered, and operations have slightly improved. The downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years. After the pressure on battery inventory has decreased, downstream purchases have slightly increased. Both the domestic lead ingot factory inventory and social inventory have declined. After a long period of horizontal movement, the monthly spread of Shanghai lead has fluctuated upwards. It is expected that Shanghai lead will operate strongly in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.08% at 17,172 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 96,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S rose 1 to $2,011/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 164,400 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,925 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 75 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: On the primary side, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. On the secondary side, the scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In July 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 122,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 790,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 35.5%. In July 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 154,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 14.0% and a month - on - month change of 22.3%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,003,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4%. In August 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 156,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 13.9% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to August, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,097,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.8%. In July 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 875,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. In July 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 289,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.6%. From January to July, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 1,816,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total production of lead ore was 2,256,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6% [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and TC**: The port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Operation and Output**: The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. In August 2025, China's primary lead production was 324,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.9% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to August, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,533,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.8% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Material and Weekly Production**: The scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In August 2025, China's secondary lead production was 320,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 0.7%. From January to August, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2,571,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.2% [31][33]. - **Import and Total Supply**: In July 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 12,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of 75.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 56,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.5%. In July 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 4,516,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operation and Apparent Demand**: The operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06%. In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 4,478,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In July 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 20.8925 million, and the net export weight was 106,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 3.3% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In August 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway has driven the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the relatively high operation rate of starting batteries. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has driven the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 2,400 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 38,100 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 35,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased marginally. The investment funds in LME lead turned slightly net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The position perspective indicates a bullish trend [80].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are inconsistent, and market risk appetite lacks sustainability. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of a slight increase in supply but lower-than-expected demand. High inventory levels put pressure on lead prices, while the relatively stable supply-demand gap at the cost end provides support. There are few new contradictions in the short term, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the integer resistance level above remaining effective [4][9]. 3. Summary by Section Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16,845 | 16,850 | 5 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,003.5 | 1,981 | -22.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.41 | 8.51 | 0.10 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 62,334 | 64,844 | 2,510 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268,375 | 261,100 | -7,275 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 3.59 | 3.94 | 0.35 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | -150 | -155 | -5 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 declined under pressure last week. The price rebounded but was blocked by the integer resistance level and then fell, closing at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. LME lead first rose and then fell, closing at 1,981 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.12% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 15, the price of lead in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets showed a downward trend. The inventory of LME decreased, while the SHFE inventory and social inventory increased. The delivery of the current - month contract led to an increase in inventory [7]. Industry News - As of August 15, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the average import ore processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous period [10]. - Some lead - smelting enterprises in Henan may face air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3, which may restrict vehicle transportation [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratios, inventory levels, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [12][13][15][18][19][21][23][25].

Group 1 - The overall lead price has shown a trend of rising and then falling this year, primarily due to the seasonal transition between peak and off-peak demand periods [2] - Strong downstream demand during the lead-acid battery replacement peak season around the Spring Festival has supported lead prices, alongside fluctuating US tariff policies and environmental production restrictions [2] - After April, macroeconomic factors, including unexpected US tariff policies, have dampened market confidence, leading to a decline in lead prices as downstream demand enters the off-peak season [2] Group 2 - The recent downtrend in the US dollar is beneficial for the non-ferrous metal sector, as historical data indicates that metal prices tend to rise during dollar down cycles [3] - The current US government's policies, including repeated tariff changes and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, are increasing economic uncertainty and reducing international confidence in the dollar [3] Group 3 - Limited production capacity for primary lead is expected due to reduced overseas mining output from various mines affected by weather and operational delays [4][6] - Domestic lead concentrate production has increased significantly due to high profit margins, but the overall supply may not meet smelting demands in the medium term [6] Group 4 - The supply of recycled lead is expected to recover as seasonal demand for waste batteries increases, although supply shortages may persist due to seasonal fluctuations [7][9] - The production of recycled lead may face limitations from raw material supply constraints and environmental production restrictions, leading to a potential decrease in supply in the medium term [9] Group 5 - Demand for lead is expected to return seasonally, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old batteries, which have positively impacted sales in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors [11] - Despite a potential decline in exports due to domestic raw material supply limitations, domestic demand for lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain strong [11] Group 6 - In the medium to long term, the balance of supply and demand for lead ingots is expected to tighten, which may support an upward trend in lead prices, aided by the opening of import channels to alleviate domestic supply constraints [14]