Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall data of the domestic sugar market is neutral to bearish, but the market's expectation of a decline in Brazil's export prospects supports the sugar market. Short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5280 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the main contract position volume is 425,271 lots, down 3,694 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 14,126 pieces, up 4,387 pieces; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 755 pieces, down 1,074 pieces; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 67,530 lots [2] 现货市场 - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4002 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4053 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5068 yuan/ton; that of imported Thai sugar is 5134 yuan/ton; the spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning is 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares [2] 产业情况 - The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons; the cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 million tons; Brazil's total sugar export volume is 2.913 billion tons, down 389 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of sugar is 440 thousand tons, down 310 thousand tons; the cumulative import volume is 4.34 billion tons, up 440 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar is 1.303 billion tons, up 420 thousand tons; the monthly production volume of soft drinks is 10.457 billion tons, down 505 thousand tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.39%, up 0.15%; that of at - the - money put options is 9.39%, up 0.15%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 11.2%, up 0.37%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.84%, up 0.21% [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 740.5 thousand tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 123.4 thousand tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 93.7 thousand tons in January of the previous year. The total export volume in January of the previous year was 2.062 billion tons. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.21 cents or 1.40% to settle at 14.68 cents per pound [2] 观点总结 - In December, the sugar production in Guangxi was 1.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431 thousand tons, and the sales volume was 795.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551.8 thousand tons. As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan was 392.3 thousand tons, higher than 326.9 thousand tons in the same period of the previous season; the cumulative sales volume was 281.4 thousand tons, compared with 267.1 thousand tons in the same period last year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Raw sugar prices are experiencing a downward adjustment, with the March contract showing a bearish trend and potential for further declines [1] Market Conditions - Domestic spot prices continue to decline, leading to reduced transaction volumes and a shift from supply shortages to ample supply in sugar factories, contributing to the price drop [1] - The overall sugar production rate is gradually increasing, which further supports the downward price trend [1] Specific Market Insights - In the Liuzhou market, the 26013 order contracts have shown a continuous downward trend, with new lows in prices and a lack of buyer resistance, allowing sellers to dominate the market [1] - The sugar futures contract 2605 displayed a significant volume drop with a bearish candlestick pattern, facing strong resistance at the 5180 level, indicating a smooth downward trend [1] - As the market approaches the 5115 level, there are signs of forming a central platform, suggesting that short-term bearish positions should consider taking profits within the 5110-5140 range [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that raw sugar prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the March contract facing resistance at the 15-cent mark, suggesting a cautious market sentiment from both buyers and sellers [1] - Domestic spot prices are declining due to a lack of support from downstream replenishment, and as prices decrease, overall market momentum is also diminishing [1] - The upcoming New Year and Spring Festival may alter overall transaction dynamics, indicating a potential need for a catalyst to break the current market stalemate [1] Group 2 - In the Liuzhou market, the 26013 order contract opened lower but closed higher, with an increase in trading volume compared to the previous day, indicating short-term buying interest around the 5300 level [1] - The expectation of support around the 5280 level suggests a need for a rebound process to validate the effectiveness of the 5350 resistance level [1] - The 26010 contract for sugar is also confirming pressure at the 5350 resistance, indicating a weak spot market, which may lead to a breakdown of balance if the basis reaches zero [1]

Core Viewpoint - The raw sugar market is experiencing a contraction in trading volume, with the March contract showing a downward trend and facing resistance at 14.80 cents per pound [1] Market Analysis - Domestic spot prices are declining slightly due to high sugar extraction rates in northern production areas and the commencement of new sugar production in the south, increasing supply pressure [1] - The market in Liuzhou saw a decrease in the order volume for contract 26013, with effective resistance at 5480 leading to a downward trend, breaking through support levels at 5455 and 5435 [1] - The focus is on whether the 5440 level can act as a strong selling resistance; if it holds, panic selling may continue [1] Trading Activity - The 2601 sugar futures contract experienced a significant drop, closing with a long bearish candle, but the decline is slowing near the 5400 support level with an increase in open interest, indicating short-term bullish participation [1] - Attention is drawn to potential profit-taking in the 5420-5430 range as the market looks for signs of a rebound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The raw sugar market is experiencing fluctuations, with March contracts showing resistance at 14.80 cents and potential support levels at 14.40 and 14.20 cents [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic spot prices are stable, particularly in Guangxi, maintaining above the 5500 yuan mark, indicating a short-term profit anchoring point [1] - The market is facing higher costs due to low sugarcane quality, making it challenging to sustain prices above 5500 yuan [1] - In the Liuzhou market, the order contract price increased from 5470 to 5490 yuan, with significant increases in transaction and order volumes, reflecting heightened market activity [1] Group 2: Trading Dynamics - The sugar futures contract 2601 saw an increase in positions, successfully challenging the 5500 yuan mark, indicating strong short-term buying interest [1] - The market is testing the support range of 5490-5500 yuan, and if this support holds, there is potential for a target of 5530 yuan [1] - Sellers are advised to exercise patience as the market undergoes a corrective phase within the 5500-5510 yuan range [1]