（来源：沐甜科技） 来源：沐甜科技 国内现货报价持续回落，成交持续萎缩，市场气氛持续观望，使得糖厂库存从排队提货转向充裕供应， 这也是价格持续回落的主要原因，加之整体产糖率在逐步提高，故而找支撑之路在延续。柳州市场 26013订货合同昨天持续着回落走势，成交缩量，价格新低，说明买方的抵抗全无，任由卖方的抛售肆 意，所以，整个走势在减仓之下，重点关注5240阻挡表现，如果该阻挡有效，说明现货还是偏弱，买方 的止损抛售在进一步发展。 期糖2605合约昨天日线呈放量下跌的光头光脚阴线，日内在反抽5180严重受阻，使得向下走势顺畅，而 随着走势在接近5115的小时级别回踩目标之下，分钟级别也就有了做中枢平台的迹象，故而短线空头要 注意做好5110-5140区间内的止盈。 原糖在弱势调整中收跌，三月合约昨晚日线收出阴线形态，在分钟级别上呈反抽背驰，收盘价位于近期 盘整的价格低位区，形态正在酝酿向下突破。 ...

来源：沐甜科技 （来源：沐甜科技） 国内现货在缺乏下游补库支撑之下持续回落，而随着价格相对高度的降低，整个势能也在减小，且随着 元旦春节备货期的来临，整体成交有可能在谨慎又谨慎之后会有所改变，故而就需要有一个题材消息引 爆点来打破僵局。柳州市场26013订货合同昨天低开高走，成交量较上一交易日有所增加，订货合同量 也同步增加，说明买方在5300附近有短线买进兴趣，这也初步对5280支撑的预期。故而在这种预期之 下，就需要有一个反抽过程来验证5350阻挡层的有效性，以此来观察分钟级别的反抽背驰情况，如果反 抽背驰，也就是5350阻挡有效，那么卖出订货持有。 原糖在震荡走势中收跌，三月合约呈15美分整数关口压制有效的阴线，日内交投区间较小，说明多空双 方谨慎，以14.80-15美分区间盘整来试探支撑维护及阻挡抛售意志。 期糖26010合约则同样以5350阻挡的反扑来确认压力表现，如此期现同价，意味着现货的弱势，故而在 现货弱之下，基差为零之后将会打破平衡，且走正的可能性较大。所以，在5350-5360区间成为新阻挡 之下，多头还是要多加小心，注意做好保护措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The raw sugar market is experiencing a contraction in trading volume, with the March contract showing a downward trend and facing resistance at 14.80 cents per pound [1] Market Analysis - Domestic spot prices are declining slightly due to high sugar extraction rates in northern production areas and the commencement of new sugar production in the south, increasing supply pressure [1] - The market in Liuzhou saw a decrease in the order volume for contract 26013, with effective resistance at 5480 leading to a downward trend, breaking through support levels at 5455 and 5435 [1] - The focus is on whether the 5440 level can act as a strong selling resistance; if it holds, panic selling may continue [1] Trading Activity - The 2601 sugar futures contract experienced a significant drop, closing with a long bearish candle, but the decline is slowing near the 5400 support level with an increase in open interest, indicating short-term bullish participation [1] - Attention is drawn to potential profit-taking in the 5420-5430 range as the market looks for signs of a rebound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The raw sugar market is experiencing fluctuations, with March contracts showing resistance at 14.80 cents and potential support levels at 14.40 and 14.20 cents [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic spot prices are stable, particularly in Guangxi, maintaining above the 5500 yuan mark, indicating a short-term profit anchoring point [1] - The market is facing higher costs due to low sugarcane quality, making it challenging to sustain prices above 5500 yuan [1] - In the Liuzhou market, the order contract price increased from 5470 to 5490 yuan, with significant increases in transaction and order volumes, reflecting heightened market activity [1] Group 2: Trading Dynamics - The sugar futures contract 2601 saw an increase in positions, successfully challenging the 5500 yuan mark, indicating strong short-term buying interest [1] - The market is testing the support range of 5490-5500 yuan, and if this support holds, there is potential for a target of 5530 yuan [1] - Sellers are advised to exercise patience as the market undergoes a corrective phase within the 5500-5510 yuan range [1]