Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in a stage of improving supply and demand, with an obvious trend of fluctuating upward, despite the lack of a strong bull - market driver [1]. - The international sugar market has emerging positive factors, but the upward movement of sugar futures prices is restricted. The domestic sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand, and it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - As of last Friday, the basis price of machine - picked cotton 3129B with less than 2.6% impurity in the northern Xinjiang warehouses was around 1300 - 1450 yuan/ton, and the basis price of the same - grade resources in southern Xinjiang's Aksu and other regions was about 20 - 30 yuan/ton lower. The delivery price in northern Xinjiang was mostly maintained at around 16550 - 16750 yuan/ton during the week [1]. - The operating rate of textile enterprises has recovered, but the new orders of downstream textile enterprises are average. The price of raw cotton has corrected, and textile enterprises purchase in appropriate amounts according to demand, with better market transactions than the week before last [1]. - News of Sino - US contact is released, which is beneficial to economic and trade negotiations and provides a certain framework for the subsequent demand for cotton [1]. Sugar - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, India's estimated output is lowered, Thailand's sugar production is lower than the initial estimate of the season, and in Brazil, the ethanol - to - sugar premium and the possibility of a lower sugar - making ratio in the new season make positive factors in the international sugar market emerge. However, the futures price is suppressed by a large number of speculative short positions and its upward movement is blocked [2]. - A significant increase in crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment of the sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil, indirectly benefiting the price of raw sugar [2]. - The estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4003 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5085 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar is 1527 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 445 yuan/ton [2]. - The domestic sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand. Since the proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year is not large, the price difference between the domestic and international markets continues to widen after the domestic market strengthens. Rising crude oil prices are conducive to Brazil increasing ethanol output, changing the "sugar - ethanol ratio" and reducing sugar output [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton maintains a relatively strong trend, and the subsequent demand expectations remain uncertain. Attention should be paid to the sixth round of Sino - US negotiations [1] - Sugar is in a stage of loose supply and demand. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy, and pay attention to the post - March delivery trend of raw sugar [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - After the festival, the market has not fully recovered, the warehousing speed has slightly slowed down, downstream procurement has increased, and the shipment situation is okay [1] - As of February 26, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports was 538,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 471,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%, the inventory in Jiangsu was about 37,300 tons, and the inventory at other ports was about 29,800 tons [1] - The Middle East conflict over the weekend did not affect the cotton sector, and the impact of Trump's visit to China is uncertain [1] Sugar - As of February 28, 2025/26, India's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 260.896 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.119 million tons; cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.625 million tons; the average sugar yield was 9.44%, a year - on - year increase of 0.13% [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast [2] - Sugar is in a stage of loose supply and demand. The increase in the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets and the rise in crude oil prices may reduce sugar output. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to the post - March delivery trend of raw sugar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global sugar market is expected to experience a supply surplus of 7.4 million tons in the 2025/2026 season, marking a ten-year high, with a contrasting situation in the domestic market where both domestic production and high import levels exert pressure on sugar prices [1][3]. Global Sugar Market Analysis - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season reached 39.9 million tons by mid-November, a year-on-year increase of 1.13%, despite lower yields due to reduced rainfall [2]. - India's sugarcane minimum purchase price has been raised to 3,550 rupees per ton, leading to an expansion in planting area to 5.724 million hectares and a projected sugar production of 30.95 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 27.69% [2]. - Thailand's sugar production is expected to rise to 11 million tons due to high sugarcane purchase prices, with exports reaching 5.1349 million tons in the first ten months of 2025, indicating increased export pressure [2]. Domestic Sugar Market Pressure - China's domestic sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is projected at 11.8 million tons, with significant increases in Guangxi and Yunnan provinces, while Guangdong's production slightly decreased due to typhoon impacts [4]. - High import levels are evident, with Brazil exporting 4.3718 million tons of sugar to China from January to November 2025, and an estimated total import of 4.9 million tons for the year [4]. - The domestic sugar consumption structure shows a strong industrial demand but weak consumer demand, with industrial consumption rising while beverage and dairy production has declined [4]. Key Factors to Monitor - The sugar-ethanol ratio is a critical factor affecting sugar production, with Brazil's ethanol production accounting for 50% of global output; a decline in the sugar-ethanol ratio could lead to reduced sugar production [5]. - India's export policy will significantly influence sugar prices, with a potential increase in exportable sugar to 2 million tons if domestic prices fall below export parity [5]. Long-term Outlook - The European sugar market is expected to see a decline in production due to falling sugar prices, with the average price in the 2024/2025 season at 555 euros per ton, significantly lower than the previous season [6]. - Thailand's sugarcane purchase price is set at 890 baht per ton, which may reduce farmers' willingness to plant sugarcane [6]. - The global sugar market is anticipated to continue its supply surplus trend, with strong production momentum from Brazil and India, while China faces dual pressures from increased domestic production and high import levels [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global sugar market is expected to experience a supply surplus of 7.4 million tons in the 2025/2026 season, marking a ten-year high, with a contrasting situation in the domestic market where both domestic production and high import levels exert pressure on sugar prices [1][3]. Global Sugar Market Overview - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season reached 39.9 million tons as of mid-November, a year-on-year increase of 1.13%. Despite lower yields due to reduced rainfall, the sugar-to-ethanol ratio improved to 51.12%, offsetting the impact of lower yields [3]. - India's sugarcane minimum purchase price was raised to 3,550 rupees per ton, leading to an increase in planting area to 5.724 million hectares and an expected sugar production of 30.95 million tons, with a 27.69% year-on-year increase in production [3]. - Thailand's sugar production is projected to rise to 11 million tons, driven by high sugarcane purchase prices and increased planting area [3]. - Global sugar consumption is estimated at 177.8 million tons, while production is expected to be 185.3 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 7.4 million tons [3]. Domestic Sugar Market Dynamics - China's domestic sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is projected at 11.8 million tons, with significant increases in Guangxi and Yunnan provinces. However, Guangdong's production is slightly down due to typhoon impacts [5]. - High import levels are evident, with Brazil exporting 4.3718 million tons of sugar to China from January to November, and an estimated total import of 4.9 million tons for the year. The cost advantage of imported sugar is significant, with costs approximately 3,380 yuan per ton lower than domestic prices [5]. - The domestic sugar consumption structure shows a strong industrial demand but weak consumer demand, with industrial consumption rising while beverage and dairy production has declined [5]. Key Factors to Monitor - The sugar-ethanol ratio is a critical factor affecting sugar production, particularly in Brazil, where the ethanol production capacity is expanding. A drop in the sugar-ethanol ratio could lead to reduced sugar production [7]. - India's export policy will significantly influence sugar prices, with a potential increase in exportable sugar if domestic prices fall below export parity [7]. - Long-term trends indicate that declining sugar prices in Europe may lead to reduced production in the region, with a projected decrease in sugar beet planting area and production [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily data report on sugar, covering domestic and international sugar - related data and market analysis [2][3][4] Group 2: Domestic Sugar Price and Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan was 5790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong was 6115 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] - SR09 was 5793, down 11; SR01 was 5655, down 11; SR09 - 01 was 138, unchanged [3] - The domestic market demand was weak, low inventory supported the spot price in Guangxi, and processed sugar entered the market, causing the quoted price to loosen and putting pressure on prices [4] Group 3: International Sugar Price and Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, up 0.0160; the exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] - The main contract of ICE raw sugar was 16.46, unchanged; the main contract of London white sugar was 573, up 3; the main contract of Brent crude oil was 72.75, unchanged [3] - In Brazil, sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continued to decline, Brazil's sugar output might not meet expectations [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Considering the expected increase in imports, the overall domestic supply - demand situation would be marginally looser, and the market was expected to be bearish after a rebound [4]

Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on sugar, covering domestic and international market data and analysis [2][3][4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continues to decrease, Brazil's sugar output may fall short of expectations [4] - Domestically, market demand is weak. Low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, but the entry of processed sugar into the market is putting pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4] Data Summary Domestic Spot Prices - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6120 yuan/ton, with no change; in Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5915 yuan/ton, in Dali is 5800 yuan/ton, both unchanged; in Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6135 yuan/ton, also unchanged [3] Futures Prices - SR09 is 5867 yuan/ton, up 22; SR01 is 5731 yuan/ton, up 29; SR09 - 01 is 136, down 7 [3] Exchange Rates and International Futures - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 7.1975, up 0.0120; the Brazilian real - RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee - RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] - The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.43, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is 69.6, unchanged [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International: Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continues to be adjusted downward, Brazil's sugar production may fall short of expectations [4]. - Domestic: Market demand is weak. Low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, but the entry of processed sugar into the market with loose quotes exerts pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation shows a marginal loosening, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - Spot prices: In Guangxi (Nanning Warehouse), it's 6120 yuan/ton with no change; in Yunnan (Kunming), 5915 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Yunnan (Dali), 5800 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Shandong (Rizhao), 6135 yuan/ton, with no change [4]. - Futures prices: SR09 is 5845 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; SR01 is 5702 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 143, down 27 [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - Exchange rates: RMB to USD is 7.1855, up 0.0060; Brazilian Real to RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; Indian Rupee to RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - International commodity prices: ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.28, with no change; London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; Brent crude oil主力 is 67.6, with no change [4].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continues to decrease, Brazil's output may fall short of expectations. Domestically, market demand is weak, low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, processed sugar is gradually entering the market with loosening quotes, which exerts pressure on prices. Considering the increase in later imports, the overall domestic supply - demand is marginally looser, and a bearish view after a rebound is maintained [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Sugar Price Data - In the domestic spot market, on July 23, 2025, the price per ton in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6120 yuan (unchanged), in Kunming was 5920 yuan (unchanged), in Dali, Yunnan was 5800 yuan (down 20 yuan), and in Rizhao, Shandong was 6135 yuan (unchanged). SR09 was 5834 yuan (up 11 yuan), SR01 was up 3 yuan, and SR09 - 01 was 178 yuan (up 8 yuan) [4] Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1855 (down 0.0020), the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818 (up 0.0212), the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084 (down 0.0004). The ice raw sugar main contract was 16.26 (unchanged), the London white sugar main contract was 573 (up 3), and the Brent crude oil main contract was 68.67 (unchanged) [4]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is lagging, but the sugar-ethanol ratio is high, leading to strong expectations of decreased production for the new season in the overseas market [1] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - As of the end of May, Brazil's Central-South region has processed 76.71 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 20.24% year-on-year, with a total sugar production of 3.989 million tons, down 22.68% year-on-year [1] - The sugar-ethanol ratio in Brazil is high, with the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline increased from 27% to 30% [1] - For the 2024/25 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Market Dynamics - The Indian National Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation predicts that India's sugar ending stock for the 2024/25 season will be between 4.8 to 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs in October-November 2025, despite a decline in current production [1] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 10.39 million tons [1] - The early arrival of monsoon rains in India is anticipated to lead to a strong recovery in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, reaching around 35 million tons [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - As of the end of May, Guangxi has sold 4.6453 million tons of sugar, an increase of 537,100 tons year-on-year, with a sales-to-production ratio of 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The domestic market has opened a profit window for sugar imports outside of quotas, although the rebound in prices is limited [1] - In May, sugar imports totaled 350,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.31% [1]