近日，广西泛糖科技有限公司产业研究主管马志淳做客期货日报"大势观澜•深一度"栏目，就2025/2026 榨季全球糖市供需格局进行了深度剖析。 马志淳认为，随着北半球主产国进入新榨季，全球糖市供需格局呈现"外强内弱"特征。国际糖业咨询机 构预计，2025/2026榨季全球食糖供应过剩量将达到740万吨，创近十年新高；而国内则面临国产糖增产 与进口高位运行的双重压力，糖价重心或进一步下移。 国际糖市供应过剩格局难改 作为全球最大的食糖生产国，巴西中南部2025/2026榨季截至11月下半月累计产糖量达3990.4万吨，同比 增长1.13%。尽管单产因降雨偏少降至75.76吨/公顷，低于前两榨季，但制糖比提升至51.12%，有效抵 消了单产下滑的影响。然而，巴西食糖出口表现不佳，截至11月出口量为3095万吨，同比下滑 12.78%。截至11月，巴西食糖库存增至1117万吨，虽低于近五年均值但仍处于高位。 印度2025/2026榨季甘蔗最低收购价上调至3550卢比/吨，带动种植面积扩大至572.4万公顷，预计净产糖 量为3095万吨。截至12月15日，印度开榨糖厂数量增至478家，产糖量同比激增27.69%。 国内 ...

据Czarnikow测算，2025/2026榨季全球食糖消费量预计为1.778亿吨，而产量为1.853亿吨，供应过剩量 达740万吨。长期来看，巴西玉米乙醇产能加速扩张及印度燃料乙醇政策调整，可能进一步挤压糖料需 求。 国内糖市供应压力较大 据马志淳介绍，中国2025/2026榨季国产糖产量预计为1180万吨，广西、云南产量明显增长。广西产量 增长受益于面积增加与单产提升，云南产量增长则因降雨充沛推动大厂提前开榨。广东受台风影响产量 微降，内蒙古甜菜因病虫害减产。 "当前进口糖到港量偏高，配额外成本优势凸显。"马志淳说，2025年1—11月巴西对中国出口食糖 437.18万吨，全年预估进口量为490万吨。配额外进口成本约5070元/吨，比国内综合成本低3380元/吨， 配额外进口替代效应明显。 近日，广西泛糖科技有限公司产业研究主管马志淳做客期货日报"大势观澜·深一度"栏目，就2025/2026 榨季全球糖市供需格局进行了深度剖析。 马志淳认为，随着北半球主产国进入新榨季，全球糖市供需格局呈现"外强内弱"特征。国际糖业咨询机 构预计，2025/2026榨季全球食糖供应过剩量将达到740万吨，创近十年新高；而国 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily data report on sugar, covering domestic and international sugar - related data and market analysis [2][3][4] Group 2: Domestic Sugar Price and Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan was 5790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong was 6115 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] - SR09 was 5793, down 11; SR01 was 5655, down 11; SR09 - 01 was 138, unchanged [3] - The domestic market demand was weak, low inventory supported the spot price in Guangxi, and processed sugar entered the market, causing the quoted price to loosen and putting pressure on prices [4] Group 3: International Sugar Price and Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, up 0.0160; the exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] - The main contract of ICE raw sugar was 16.46, unchanged; the main contract of London white sugar was 573, up 3; the main contract of Brent crude oil was 72.75, unchanged [3] - In Brazil, sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continued to decline, Brazil's sugar output might not meet expectations [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Considering the expected increase in imports, the overall domestic supply - demand situation would be marginally looser, and the market was expected to be bearish after a rebound [4]

Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on sugar, covering domestic and international market data and analysis [2][3][4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continues to decrease, Brazil's sugar output may fall short of expectations [4] - Domestically, market demand is weak. Low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, but the entry of processed sugar into the market is putting pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4] Data Summary Domestic Spot Prices - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6120 yuan/ton, with no change; in Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5915 yuan/ton, in Dali is 5800 yuan/ton, both unchanged; in Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6135 yuan/ton, also unchanged [3] Futures Prices - SR09 is 5867 yuan/ton, up 22; SR01 is 5731 yuan/ton, up 29; SR09 - 01 is 136, down 7 [3] Exchange Rates and International Futures - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 7.1975, up 0.0120; the Brazilian real - RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee - RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] - The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.43, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is 69.6, unchanged [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International: Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continues to be adjusted downward, Brazil's sugar production may fall short of expectations [4]. - Domestic: Market demand is weak. Low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, but the entry of processed sugar into the market with loose quotes exerts pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation shows a marginal loosening, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - Spot prices: In Guangxi (Nanning Warehouse), it's 6120 yuan/ton with no change; in Yunnan (Kunming), 5915 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Yunnan (Dali), 5800 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Shandong (Rizhao), 6135 yuan/ton, with no change [4]. - Futures prices: SR09 is 5845 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; SR01 is 5702 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 143, down 27 [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - Exchange rates: RMB to USD is 7.1855, up 0.0060; Brazilian Real to RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; Indian Rupee to RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - International commodity prices: ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.28, with no change; London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; Brent crude oil主力 is 67.6, with no change [4].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continues to decrease, Brazil's output may fall short of expectations. Domestically, market demand is weak, low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, processed sugar is gradually entering the market with loosening quotes, which exerts pressure on prices. Considering the increase in later imports, the overall domestic supply - demand is marginally looser, and a bearish view after a rebound is maintained [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Sugar Price Data - In the domestic spot market, on July 23, 2025, the price per ton in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6120 yuan (unchanged), in Kunming was 5920 yuan (unchanged), in Dali, Yunnan was 5800 yuan (down 20 yuan), and in Rizhao, Shandong was 6135 yuan (unchanged). SR09 was 5834 yuan (up 11 yuan), SR01 was up 3 yuan, and SR09 - 01 was 178 yuan (up 8 yuan) [4] Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1855 (down 0.0020), the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818 (up 0.0212), the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084 (down 0.0004). The ice raw sugar main contract was 16.26 (unchanged), the London white sugar main contract was 573 (up 3), and the Brent crude oil main contract was 68.67 (unchanged) [4]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is lagging, but the sugar-ethanol ratio is high, leading to strong expectations of decreased production for the new season in the overseas market [1] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - As of the end of May, Brazil's Central-South region has processed 76.71 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 20.24% year-on-year, with a total sugar production of 3.989 million tons, down 22.68% year-on-year [1] - The sugar-ethanol ratio in Brazil is high, with the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline increased from 27% to 30% [1] - For the 2024/25 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Market Dynamics - The Indian National Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation predicts that India's sugar ending stock for the 2024/25 season will be between 4.8 to 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs in October-November 2025, despite a decline in current production [1] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 10.39 million tons [1] - The early arrival of monsoon rains in India is anticipated to lead to a strong recovery in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, reaching around 35 million tons [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - As of the end of May, Guangxi has sold 4.6453 million tons of sugar, an increase of 537,100 tons year-on-year, with a sales-to-production ratio of 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The domestic market has opened a profit window for sugar imports outside of quotas, although the rebound in prices is limited [1] - In May, sugar imports totaled 350,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.31% [1]