Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gasoline crack spreads are declining, but PX prices are strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite no significant fundamental changes, PTA units maintain high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Korean manufacturers plan to cut STDP operation and shut down relevant units in the second half of December due to the widened PX - mixed xylene spread. PX costs are high while PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises' economic benefits improve. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, increasing PTA consumption and market inventory intention, and strengthening the basis. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have low inventories and low willingness to cut production, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification may drive export growth [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - PTA spot price increased from 5015 to 5050, MEG inner - market price rose from 3573 to 3653, and PTA closing price went up from 5094 to 5152. The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6550 to 6575. Polyester bottle - chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets rose, with the average price up 30 yuan/ton. Cotton 328 price increased from 14910 to 15000 [2] Market Transaction - In the short - fiber market, downstream purchasing is cautious, and the market is mainly bought by futures - spot traders with scarce transactions. In the bottle - chip market, the trading atmosphere is cautious, and downstream terminals are on the sidelines [2] Industry Operation Indicators - The direct - spun short - fiber load increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, and the polyester short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 80.00% to 56.00%. The polyester yarn startup rate and the recycled cotton - type load index remained unchanged [2][3] Profit and Cost - The polyester short - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, the bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 527 to 469, the T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3800 to 3775, and the polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1321 to 1271. The cash flow of 6 - 15D hollow short - fiber decreased from 465 to 408 [2]

中国成品油周报 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | 辅 助 色 GALAXY FUTURES 1 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 ◼ 市场概况： 供应端，本周全国炼厂开工70.8%，环比上行0.2%，主营开工小幅回升，广州石化常减压检修回归；地炼开工小幅下跌，新增江苏新海石化焦化 装置检修。汽油主营及地炼产量均下行，柴油主营产量上行地炼回落。柴汽比上行0.02至1.48。需求端，市场情绪偏谨慎，汽油车单中下游采购 积极性不高；柴油船单车单受低价支撑而提升，产销率上行。汽柴均未达产销平衡。库存，商业库存汽柴油均累库。汽油1074万吨，环比+28 万吨（+2.7%）；柴油1239万吨，环比+25万吨（+1.8%）。地炼库 ...

证券日报网讯12月9日，玲珑轮胎（601966）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，泰国玲珑目前平均产 能利用率在85%左右，年初至今的平均产销率接近100%。 ...

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the black commodity sector, covering steel products, iron ore, glass, and soda ash, with data from November 28 to December 5, 2025 [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the medium to long - term, the steel industry's prosperity is declining, with weakening demand for rebar and downward pressure on iron ore futures prices. Glass and soda ash also face challenges, with limited upward momentum for glass and weak demand for soda ash [67][71] - In the short - term, rebar and iron ore are expected to trade in a range, while glass and soda ash are likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [68][72] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Black Commodities Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price rose from 3117 to 3157 (up 1%), with a spot price of 3290 and a basis of 133 [2] - **Hot - rolled coil (HC2605)**: Futures price increased from 3288 to 3320 (up 1%), spot price 3300, basis - 20 [2] - **Iron ore (I2601)**: Futures price dropped from 794 to 786 (down 1%), spot price 810, basis 25 [2] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price rose from 1575 to 1585 (up 1%), spot price 1720, basis 135 [2] - **Coking coal (JM2605)**: Futures price decreased from 1152 to 1140 (down 1%), spot price 1510, basis 370 [2] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price fell from 1053 to 994 (down 6%), spot price 1130, basis 136 [2] - **Soda ash (SA601)**: Futures price declined from 1177 to 1137 (down 3%), spot price 1258, basis 121 [2] 3.2 Rebar Analysis - **Profit**: On December 4, the blast - furnace profit for rebar was 31 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply**: As of December 5, the blast - furnace operating rate was 80.16% (down 0.93 percentage points), daily hot - metal output was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons), and weekly rebar production was 189.31 tons (down 16.77 tons) [12] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 10.96 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume of construction steel by major traders was 93,867 tons [18] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, social rebar inventory was 361.13 tons (down 23.62 tons), and in - plant inventory was 142.68 tons (down 4.05 tons) [23] 3.3 Iron Ore Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, global iron - ore shipments were 3323.2 tons (up 44.8 tons), and arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2784 tons (down 155.5 tons) [28] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15991.11 tons (up 89.89 tons), and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 42.25 tons) [33] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 334.23 tons (down 9.83 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 126.6 tons [38] 3.4 Float Glass Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 218 (down 2), weekly output was 1085095 tons (down 18800 tons). As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate was 77.25%, and the operating rate was 73.4% [43] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, in - plant float - glass inventory was 59.442 million weight - boxes (down 2.92 million tons), and the available inventory days were 26.8 days (down 0.7 days) [48] - **Demand**: In the week of December 1, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 10.1 days [52] 3.5 Soda Ash Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.74% (down 0.66 percentage points), and production was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons) [55] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, in - plant soda - ash inventory was 153.86 tons (down 4.88 tons) [60] - **Sales Ratio**: As of December 5, the soda - ash sales ratio was 106.93% (down 1.23 percentage points) [64] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: Medium - to long - term outlook is bearish due to weakening demand and low winter - storage willingness. Short - term trading should be based on a range - bound strategy [67][68] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Medium - to long - term, glass has limited upward momentum, and soda - ash demand is weak. Short - term, they are expected to trade weakly and oscillate [71][72]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol Market - The current methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction centered on high port inventories. The 01 contract faces challenges in inventory digestion, and the weak reality pattern may continue until Iranian gas restrictions are implemented. The 05 contract is expected to see significant inventory reduction, so attention can be focused on the MTO profit shrinkage opportunity of the 05 contract [1][3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is generally stable with some plant overhauls offset by xylene supplements. Demand has some support in the short - term, but the November supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are limited. PTA may have a slight inventory build - up, and its price rebound space is restricted. Ethylene glycol is expected to have a high inventory build - up in November - December, facing upward pressure. Short - fiber supply remains high in the short - term, but demand may weaken seasonally, and its price rebound space is limited. Bottle - chip supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and it follows cost fluctuations [6]. Polyolefin Market - PP supply increase is slowing due to more unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase as overhauls peak. Demand has improved, but overall, there is pressure from increasing supply and decreasing demand. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda supply is expected to increase in November, with weak demand support, and its price is expected to be weakly stable. PVC supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Market - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with limited demand support and increasing port inventories. Its price driver is weak. Styrene supply may slightly decrease in November, demand is expected to change little, and its price driver is also limited [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2125 on November 6, down 0.75% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2226, down 0.45%. The MA15 spread was - 101, up 6.32%. The太仓 basis was - 30, up 25%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang all had different changes [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 38.641% (a 2.75% increase), port inventory was 151.7 million tons (a 0.71% increase), and social inventory was 190.4% (a 1.11% increase) [2]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 76.09%, up 0.31%; overseas was 70.7%, down 2.68%. The downstream MTO device operating rate was 84.98%, up 1.09%, while the acetic acid operating rate was 72.3%, down 1.15% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (January) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; WTI crude oil (December) was $59.43 per barrel, down 0.3%. CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3% [6]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6515 yuan/ton, with a cash - flow of 94 yuan/ton, down 31.2%. The bottle - chip futures PR2601 price was 5736 yuan/ton, up 1.3% [6]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 78.1%, down 0.5%; PTA operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.0%; MEG comprehensive operating rate was 76.2%, up 4.0% [6]. Polyolefin Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6805, down 0.13%; PP2601 closed at 6471, down 0.31%. The L15 spread was - 81, down 6.90%; the PP15 spread was - 121, up 6.14% [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 49.0 million tons, up 17.84%; PP enterprise inventory was 60.0 million tons, up 0.81% [8]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - PE device operating rate was 82.6%, up 2.13%; PP device operating rate was 77.8%, up 0.9% [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 closed at 4630, down 0.2%; the V basis was - 110, down 12.2% [11]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.3%, up 3.3%; PVC total operating rate was 77.1%, up 4.5%. The demand of caustic soda's main downstream, alumina, was weak, and PVC demand was in the off - season [11]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China plants increased by 18.9%, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3%. Pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - Pure benzene East China spot was 5389 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; styrene East China spot was 6310 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. EB cash - flow (non - integrated) was - 213 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [12]. Operating Rates and Inventories - Domestic pure benzene operating rate was 74.1%, up 1.9%; styrene operating rate was 66.7%, down 3.7%. Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 12.10 million tons, up 42.4% [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import costs needs further verification. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to show a range - bound trend, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term. The domestic sugar price is generally bearish, while the cotton price may fluctuate at a high level. The egg price may rise steadily in the short - term, and the short - term trend of the hog price is weak, but there is potential support [3][5][10][13][16][18][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, US soybeans fell due to concerns about demand, and there was no new information on Sino - US soybean trade. The domestic soybean meal futures rebounded slightly. Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybeans both accumulated inventory, and the soybean meal inventory was still high. The soybean good rate in the US has declined, and the Brazilian premium has rebounded after a decline. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to start destocking in September, which will support the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the upper end [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: In August 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, while production decreased. Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase. Before the fourth Sino - US talks in late October or early November, the domestic soybean meal cost will gradually increase. If the US soybeans are purchased after the talks and the South American new crop has a good harvest, the domestic soybean meal price may decline. On Wednesday, the three major domestic oils and fats were weak, with large foreign capital short - selling [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats have fallen due to high valuations and weak commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, and low inventory support the price center. Palm oil may be bullish in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi increased year - on - year, while that in Yunnan decreased. The industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased, while that in Yunnan increased [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since July, the domestic sugar import supply has increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the new season. The overall view is bearish. The downward space depends on the international market [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell slightly. The global 2025/26 cotton production and ending inventory are expected to decrease compared to the previous month's forecast. As of August 31, the US cotton good rate decreased but was still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, with the approaching of the peak consumption season and low domestic inventory, the situation may improve. Technically, the cotton price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply was relatively stable, and the market was trading normally. The egg price may continue to be stable with some increases [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in the elimination of laying hens and the increase in demand due to pre - festival stocking, the egg price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the medium - term pressure [18]. Hogs - **Spot Information**: The domestic hog price was mostly stable with some declines. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The hog price may decline today, and some low - price areas may remain stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the failure of the expected rebound in the spot price, the market is trading the reality of oversupply. In September, the supply may still be weak, but there is potential support from demand and other factors. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, speculative demand has significantly declined due to market sentiment. Although some steel mills have received oral production - restriction notices, the supply of rebar is expected to be less affected. Rebar demand will be significantly suppressed, and short - term prices are under pressure. Iron ore demand has some resilience, but supply is growing faster than demand, so there is a risk of correction. The supply - demand fundamentals of float glass and soda ash are weakening [64][68]. - In the short term, the main contracts of the black series are oscillating weakly. It is recommended to conduct band trading. The main contracts of glass and soda ash lack upward drivers in the short term and are waiting for the start of the demand side [65][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2510): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3188 on August 15th to 3119 on August 22nd, a decrease of 69 or 2.16%. The spot price was 3280, and the basis was 161 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3439 to 3361, a decrease of 78 or 2.27%. The spot price was 3400, and the basis was 39 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 776 to 770, a decrease of 6 or 0.77%. The spot price was 778, and the basis was 8 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1730 to 1679, a decrease of 51 or 2.95%. The spot price was 1620, and the basis was - 59 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1230 to 1162, a decrease of 68 or 5.53%. The spot price was 1350, and the basis was 188 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1211 to 1173, a decrease of 38 or 3.14%. The spot price was 1230, and the basis was 57 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1395 to 1326, a decrease of 69 or 4.95%. The spot price was 1315, and the basis was - 11 [3]. Rebar - **Profit**: On August 21st, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was 74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton compared to August 14th [7]. - **Supply**: As of August 22nd, the blast - furnace operating rate was 83.36%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons; the rebar output was 214.65 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons [12]. - **Demand**: In the week of August 22nd, the apparent consumption of rebar was 194.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.86 tons. As of August 21st, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 93523 tons [16]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 22nd, the social inventory of rebar was 432.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.58 tons; the in - plant inventory was 174.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.27 tons [21]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of August 15th, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3406.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 359.9 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2703.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 131.5 tons [26]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 22nd, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14444.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 62.63 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 9065.47 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.93 tons [29]. - **Demand**: In the week of August 22nd, the daily average port - clearing volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 341.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.76 tons. As of August 21st, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 91.7 tons [34]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of August 22nd, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1117025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 21st, the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, and the operating rate was 75.34%, both the same as last week [39]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 22nd, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 6360.6 million weight - boxes, an increase of 18 million weight - boxes compared to August 15th; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.2 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 days [43]. - **Demand**: As of July 31st, the order days of glass - deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15th [47]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of August 22nd, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.48%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 77.14 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons compared to last week [52]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22nd, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 191.08 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons compared to August 15th [57]. - **Sales - to - production Ratio**: As of August 22nd, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 97.8%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points compared to August 15th [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Mid - to Long - term**: The speculative sentiment in the black - series commodity market has significantly cooled this week, with a mainly oscillating and weakening trend. The capital availability rate of construction sites has slightly increased by 0.27 percentage points but decreased by 3.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The real - estate sector recovers slowly, and the steel demand side remains under continuous pressure. Steel supply is expected to shrink, but the short - term fundamental improvement is limited. The daily average hot - metal output has slightly increased, while the overseas ore shipment volume and the arrival volume at China's main ports have decreased. Future steel mill production restrictions are expected to affect the iron ore demand side. For glass and soda ash, the float glass start - up rate and weekly output are flat compared to last week, with continuous inventory accumulation and a weak supply - demand fundamental. Soda ash supply remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [69][73]. - **Short - term**: The main contracts of black - series commodities have shown an oscillating and weakening trend recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of subsequent policies and real - estate data, and cautious and light - position operations are recommended. The main contracts of glass and soda ash have mainly oscillated within a range this week, and short - term band operations are recommended [70][74]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | Closing Price on 2025/8/8 | Closing Price on 2025/8/15 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3213 | 3188 | - 25 | - 0.78 | 3320 | 132 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2510 | 3428 | 3439 | 11 | 0.32 | 3460 | 21 | | Iron ore | I2601 | 774 | 776 | 2.5 | 0.32 | 784 | 8 | | Coke | J2601 | 1734 | 1730 | - 4.5 | - 0.26 | 1620 | - 110 | | Coking coal | JM2601 | 1227 | 1230 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1350 | 120 | | Glass | FG601 | 1196 | 1211 | 15 | 1.25 | 1250 | 39 | | Soda ash | SA601 | 1332 | 1395 | 63 | 4.73 | 1326 | - 69 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On August 14, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton compared to August 7 [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of August 15, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons; the rebar output was 220.45 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [15]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 1.8994 million tons, a decrease of 208,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 83,767 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 4.1493 million tons, an increase of 264,500 tons compared to the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 1.7226 million tons, an increase of 40,600 tons [25]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 8, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons [30]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14.38157 million tons, an increase of 114,300 tons compared to the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9.1364 million tons, an increase of 123,060 tons [33]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the daily average ore - unloading volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 346,800 tons, an increase of 103,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume at main ports in China was reported at 130,200 tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the number of operating float glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,117,025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was 75.34%, the same as last week [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.579 million weight boxes compared to August 8; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days compared to the previous week [48]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.32%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 761,300 tons, an increase of 18,400 tons compared to last week [57]. - **In - plant Inventory**: As of August 15, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons compared to August 8 [62]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of August 15, the production and sales rate of soda ash was reported at 96.23%, an increase of 5.54 percentage points compared to August 1 [66].

Report Information - Report Title: LPG Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Some plant restarts have driven the PDH operating rate up to around 73%, and there are still new production plans in August, with a marginal improvement in chemical demand [3]. - The sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises is 101%, a 1-percentage-point increase from the previous period, indicating a short-term relief of shipment pressure [3]. - Port inventories have increased to 321.6 million tons (+8.2 million tons), reaching a new high for the year, with significant supply pressure [3]. - The official August CP price for propane is $520 per ton ($55 lower than the previous period), and the landed cost is suppressing domestic prices [3]. - During the off-season, combustion demand is weak. The increase in chemical demand cannot offset the pressure of high inventories. Coupled with the decline in import costs, LPG will continue its volatile and weak pattern [4]. Data Charts - The content includes multiple data charts, including the settlement price of propane's Far East landed price FEI: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of FEI to Brent (daily), PDH profit/operating rate, the seasonal ratio of FEI to MOPJ spread (daily), FEI discount, Middle East offshore discount (daily), the settlement price of propane's US offshore price: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of MB to WTI (daily), CP M1 - MB M1, VLGC freight, US propane weekly production, US propane import volume (weekly seasonal), US propane inventory (weekly seasonal), and US propane export volume (weekly seasonal) [5][9][12][15][17]