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大越期货纯碱早报-20250808
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 01:46
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of policy - positive sentiment, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly weak and fluctuating [2]. 3. Detailed Summaries by Section Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high. Downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, and terminal demand weakens. Soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,357 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 102 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the supply - demand imbalance, with policy - positive sentiment fading, soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The peak summer overhaul season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high. Downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.95% to 1,357 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped by 4.92% to 1,255 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 104% to - 102 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 22.90 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is 56.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly industry operating rate is 80.27%, and it is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output is 699,800 tons, with heavy soda ash at 398,700 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity, with 6.4 million tons added in 2023, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and a planned 7.5 million tons in 2025 (actual 1 million tons) [21]. Demand - **Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 109.83% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75%. Photovoltaic glass prices are falling, and due to the "anti - involution" policy, production has been cut, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [27][30]. Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and is above the 5 - year average [33]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a soda ash annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, output, apparent supply, total demand, and other indicators over the years [34].
【期货热点追踪】纯碱主力再度刷新历史低点,后续走势该如何看待?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-13 01:20
今日纯碱期货主力合约延续跌势,盘中主力合约再度刷新历史低点,截至收盘,纯碱主力合约下跌2.33%,报1175元/吨。市场分析师指出,市场情绪转弱主 要源于持续累库压力,叠加供应端显著提升而终端需求疲软,现货价格呈现稳中下移态势。盘中空头资金集中入场,进一步压制盘面走低。 本周浮法玻璃生产周均利润继续恶化,玻璃现货价格跌势不止,纯碱价格亦是同步走低,不过石油焦价格周度小涨,以其为燃料的周均利润-128.47元/吨, 环比减少17.14元/吨;天然气价格走低,以天然气为燃料的周均利润-182.83元/吨,环比减少12.15元/吨;此外以煤制气为燃料的周均利润下降10.24元/吨至 80.72元/吨。 短期纯碱供需驱动依旧不足,盘面维持底部宽幅震荡趋势。关注高温天气纯碱装置检修落实情况、商品市场整体走势对纯碱期价的阶段性影响。 据正信期货研究分析,从新产能上看,连云港碱业120万吨、湖北双环30万吨于5-6月投产,三季度新产能预计逐步放量,远兴2期280万吨、云图控股70万吨 影响预计在4季度甚至明年,此外远期计划新增产能项目包括湖南雪天盐业、河南金山(2026-2027)。总体看,今年产能延续增加态势且远期仍有投 ...