Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1293 yuan/ton to 1278 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1200 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% - The main basis decreased from - 93 yuan/ton to - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.38% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13] - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton, and the production profit has rebounded from a historical low [16] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.12% [19] - The weekly output of soda ash is 77.69 tons, including 43.01 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [22] - From 2023 to 2025, there are large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons and an actual new capacity of 920 tons [23] 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 113.40% [26] - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [29] - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline [2] 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 165.15 tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash has changed over the years. In 2024E, the supply - demand difference is 157 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 17.59%, a production growth rate of 13.07%, an apparent supply growth rate of 11.69%, and a total demand growth rate of 7.10% [37] 6. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be positive**: The peak maintenance period is coming this year, and the output is expected to decline [3] - **Likely to be negative**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1293元/吨，基差为-93元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。SA2601：1250-1300区间操作 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-26 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1220元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1315元/吨，基差为-95元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大 ...

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the soda ash market, including daily views, influencing factors, main logic, and market data [2][3][4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Directory Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is average, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,306 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 96 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2] - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The peak maintenance period this year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4] Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5] Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,306 yuan/ton, a 2.10% decrease from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, a 2.02% decrease; the main basis is - 96 yuan, a 3.03% decrease [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,210 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease from the previous day [11] Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and in East China's co - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14] Capacity and Production - The weekly industry operation rate of soda ash is 87.29%. The weekly production of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the production is at a historical high [17][19] New Capacity - From 2023 to 2025, a large amount of new soda ash production capacity has been added or is planned, with a total planned capacity of 1,570 tons and an actual production capacity of 100 tons in 2025 [20] Demand Analysis - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operation rate of 76.01% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [26][32] Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operation rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates [36]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. Key Points by Section 1. Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plants have few maintenance activities, supply remains high, downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable while photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, and terminal demand is average. Soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -114 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - National soda ash factory inventory is 179.75 million tons, a 1.35% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][35]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, showing a neutral signal [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - Overall, soda ash fundamentals are weak, and short - term volatility is expected [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak maintenance period is approaching this year, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4]. 3. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1339 yuan/ton, a 2.37% increase from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1225 yuan/ton, a 2.08% increase from the previous value. The main basis is -114 yuan, a 5.56% increase from the previous value [6]. 5. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1225 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is -96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is -92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 76.11 million tons, including 42.17 million tons of heavy soda ash, with output at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with a total planned increase of 1570 million tons and an actual planned increase of 1030 million tons in 2025 [20]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 million tons, and the operating rate is 76.01%, showing stability [26]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has continued a significant downward trend [32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory National soda ash factory inventory is 179.75 million tons, a 1.35% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, and growth rates in various aspects [36].

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1311 yuan/ton to 1296 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.14%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1205 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 106 yuan/ton to - 91 yuan/ton, a change of - 14.15% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1205 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.47%, showing a seasonal decline. The weekly output is 71.91 tons, including 38.32 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with planned new capacities of 640, 180, and 750 tons respectively. The actual new capacity in 2025 is 100 tons [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate is 75.49% and stable [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [34]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 186.75 tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [37]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash [38]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1307元/吨，基差为-107元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存191.08万吨，较前一周增加0.90%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 纯碱早报 2025-8-28 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、23年以来，纯 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of policy - positive sentiment, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly weak and fluctuating [2]. 3. Detailed Summaries by Section Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high. Downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, and terminal demand weakens. Soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,357 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 102 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the supply - demand imbalance, with policy - positive sentiment fading, soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The peak summer overhaul season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high. Downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.95% to 1,357 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped by 4.92% to 1,255 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 104% to - 102 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 22.90 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is 56.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly industry operating rate is 80.27%, and it is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output is 699,800 tons, with heavy soda ash at 398,700 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity, with 6.4 million tons added in 2023, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and a planned 7.5 million tons in 2025 (actual 1 million tons) [21]. Demand - **Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 109.83% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75%. Photovoltaic glass prices are falling, and due to the "anti - involution" policy, production has been cut, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [27][30]. Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and is above the 5 - year average [33]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a soda ash annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, output, apparent supply, total demand, and other indicators over the years [34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to weak demand and increasing supply, leading to a significant drop in prices [1][6][8] - As of June 12, domestic soda ash manufacturers have a total inventory of 1.6863 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 59,300 tons, indicating a high inventory level compared to historical data [3] - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in the coming months due to new capacities coming online, with a weekly production of 744,900 tons reported as of June 12 [4][6] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the soda ash market is likely to remain in a state of oversupply, with limited upward price drivers, and recommend a strategy of short selling on rebounds [6][7] - The glass production sector is facing declining profits, which is contributing to the downward pressure on soda ash prices, with average weekly profits for float glass production reported at -128.47 yuan/ton [3] - The supply pressure remains high, with expectations of continued weak performance in soda ash prices due to high inventory levels and the potential for increased production from upcoming maintenance and new capacity [8]