Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1293 yuan/ton to 1278 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1200 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% - The main basis decreased from - 93 yuan/ton to - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.38% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13] - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton, and the production profit has rebounded from a historical low [16] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.12% [19] - The weekly output of soda ash is 77.69 tons, including 43.01 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [22] - From 2023 to 2025, there are large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons and an actual new capacity of 920 tons [23] 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 113.40% [26] - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [29] - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline [2] 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 165.15 tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash has changed over the years. In 2024E, the supply - demand difference is 157 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 17.59%, a production growth rate of 13.07%, an apparent supply growth rate of 11.69%, and a total demand growth rate of 7.10% [37] 6. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be positive**: The peak maintenance period is coming this year, and the output is expected to decline [3] - **Likely to be negative**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to operate SA2601 in the range of 1,250 - 1,300 [2] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: There are few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. Terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period of history. It is bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,293 yuan/ton, the basis is - 93 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. It is bearish [2] - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is a net short position, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and the production is expected to decline [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a high level in the same period of history; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - duty soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4] 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,315 | 1,293 | - 1.67% | | Low - end price of heavy - duty soda ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1,220 | 1,200 | - 1.64% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 95 | - 93 | - 2.11% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - duty soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [13] - **Soda Ash Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - duty soda ash by the north China ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and the profit by the east China co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [16] - **Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production Capacity Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 89.12%. The weekly production of soda ash is 776,900 tons, including 430,100 tons of heavy - duty soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [19][22] - **Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [23] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 113.40% [26] - **Soda Ash Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [29] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Production (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [37]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Daily View - Fundamental factors: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is average, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,315 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 165.15 tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; this is a neutral factor [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The peak maintenance period of the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level; downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4]. 3. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract has increased from 1,307 yuan/ton to 1,315 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe has increased from 1,210 yuan/ton to 1,220 yuan/ton, a 0.83% increase; the main basis has changed from - 97 yuan to - 95 yuan, a - 2.06% change [6]. 5. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous day [11]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 96.75 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 108.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.53%. The weekly production of soda ash is 74.57 tons, including 41.77 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [17][19]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [20]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production - sales ratio: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 103.56% [23]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate of 76.01% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [26][32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 165.15 tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, and growth rates [36].

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the soda ash market, including daily views, influencing factors, main logic, and market data [2][3][4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Directory Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is average, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,306 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 96 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2] - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The peak maintenance period this year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4] Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5] Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,306 yuan/ton, a 2.10% decrease from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, a 2.02% decrease; the main basis is - 96 yuan, a 3.03% decrease [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,210 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease from the previous day [11] Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and in East China's co - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14] Capacity and Production - The weekly industry operation rate of soda ash is 87.29%. The weekly production of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the production is at a historical high [17][19] New Capacity - From 2023 to 2025, a large amount of new soda ash production capacity has been added or is planned, with a total planned capacity of 1,570 tons and an actual production capacity of 100 tons in 2025 [20] Demand Analysis - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operation rate of 76.01% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [26][32] Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operation rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates [36]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. Key Points by Section 1. Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plants have few maintenance activities, supply remains high, downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable while photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, and terminal demand is average. Soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -114 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - National soda ash factory inventory is 179.75 million tons, a 1.35% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][35]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, showing a neutral signal [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - Overall, soda ash fundamentals are weak, and short - term volatility is expected [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak maintenance period is approaching this year, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4]. 3. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1339 yuan/ton, a 2.37% increase from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1225 yuan/ton, a 2.08% increase from the previous value. The main basis is -114 yuan, a 5.56% increase from the previous value [6]. 5. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1225 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is -96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is -92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 76.11 million tons, including 42.17 million tons of heavy soda ash, with output at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with a total planned increase of 1570 million tons and an actual planned increase of 1030 million tons in 2025 [20]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 million tons, and the operating rate is 76.01%, showing stability [26]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has continued a significant downward trend [32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory National soda ash factory inventory is 179.75 million tons, a 1.35% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, and growth rates in various aspects [36].

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1311 yuan/ton to 1296 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.14%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1205 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 106 yuan/ton to - 91 yuan/ton, a change of - 14.15% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1205 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.47%, showing a seasonal decline. The weekly output is 71.91 tons, including 38.32 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with planned new capacities of 640, 180, and 750 tons respectively. The actual new capacity in 2025 is 100 tons [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate is 75.49% and stable [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [34]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 186.75 tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [37]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash [38]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass declines, and terminal demand weakens. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,307 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 107 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][36]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash feature strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launching plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,311 | 1,307 | - 0.31% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,200 | 1,200 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 111 | - 107 | - 3.60% | [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline of the operating rate is postponed. The weekly production of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - **Production Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production - launching of 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is 75.34% and stable. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [27][33]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [36]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Production (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [37]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of policy - positive sentiment, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly weak and fluctuating [2]. 3. Detailed Summaries by Section Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high. Downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, and terminal demand weakens. Soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,357 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 102 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the supply - demand imbalance, with policy - positive sentiment fading, soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The peak summer overhaul season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high. Downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.95% to 1,357 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped by 4.92% to 1,255 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 104% to - 102 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 22.90 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is 56.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly industry operating rate is 80.27%, and it is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output is 699,800 tons, with heavy soda ash at 398,700 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity, with 6.4 million tons added in 2023, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and a planned 7.5 million tons in 2025 (actual 1 million tons) [21]. Demand - **Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 109.83% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75%. Photovoltaic glass prices are falling, and due to the "anti - involution" policy, production has been cut, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [27][30]. Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and is above the 5 - year average [33]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a soda ash annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, output, apparent supply, total demand, and other indicators over the years [34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to weak demand and increasing supply, leading to a significant drop in prices [1][6][8] - As of June 12, domestic soda ash manufacturers have a total inventory of 1.6863 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 59,300 tons, indicating a high inventory level compared to historical data [3] - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in the coming months due to new capacities coming online, with a weekly production of 744,900 tons reported as of June 12 [4][6] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the soda ash market is likely to remain in a state of oversupply, with limited upward price drivers, and recommend a strategy of short selling on rebounds [6][7] - The glass production sector is facing declining profits, which is contributing to the downward pressure on soda ash prices, with average weekly profits for float glass production reported at -128.47 yuan/ton [3] - The supply pressure remains high, with expectations of continued weak performance in soda ash prices due to high inventory levels and the potential for increased production from upcoming maintenance and new capacity [8]