Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, the price of pure benzene futures has been continuously rising, with a cumulative increase of 7.38% since January 5 [1] Supply Side - The supply of pure benzene has remained stable recently, with the operating rate around 77%-78%, which may increase in the future. In February, several maintenance operations are expected to conclude, leading to an overall increase in supply [2] - New production capacities have been added, including BASF's 180,000-ton cracking capacity in Zhanjiang and Hunan Petrochemical's 60,000-ton reforming capacity in January. However, overall supply is expected to decrease in the second quarter due to maintenance plans at several refineries [2] - By 2025, there is a significant oversupply of pure benzene anticipated, primarily due to high import volumes. South Korea plans to retire 2.7-3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity, which could lead to a reduction of over 500,000 tons in pure benzene capacity [2] Downstream Demand - Downstream demand shows a clear divergence. For styrene, the restart of several facilities is expected to increase overall production, supported by high processing margins [3] - In contrast, the demand for caprolactam may rise in the short term but is expected to decline later due to profit guidance. The current operating rate for PA6 is only 70%, indicating a significant drop [3] - The phenol market is seeing increased demand due to the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's phenol unit, although overall profit margins remain low [4] Inventory and Pricing - As of January 19, the port inventory of pure benzene was 297,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from the previous period. High inventory levels are primarily due to increased imports, with December imports reaching approximately 530,000 tons [4] - To alleviate high inventory pressure, pure benzene may need to offer discounts to downstream users, which could maintain the BZ-SM price spread at a strong level in the second quarter [4][7] Market Sensitivity - The styrene market is currently sensitive to news, with price fluctuations driven by various external factors. High styrene prices may lead to negative feedback, potentially impacting pure benzene prices [5][6] - The combination of high imports and weak downstream demand is likely to result in continued inventory accumulation, creating a supply-demand scenario where both supply and demand may increase in the short term [7]

2025 年 08 月 11 日 纯苯：持续去库，短期偏强 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z008016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 【趋势强度】 纯苯趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 6204 | 6248 | -44 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1095 | -1051 | -44 | | BZ2604 | 6174 | 6233 | -59 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -1031 | -1048 | 17 | | BZ2605 | 6239 | 6239 | 0 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1146 | -1137 | -9 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 30 | 1 ...