本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【华东调研验证纯苯和苯乙烯价差波动规律】2024年，调研团队对华东地区13家纯苯和苯乙烯上下游生 产企业及贸易商展开拜访。此次调研进一步验证了纯苯和苯乙烯的价差波动规律。 通过产业链上下游 供需关系，做多或做空价差可表达加工利润的扩张或收缩。做扩价差，预期苯乙烯需求增长或纯苯供应 过剩；做缩价差（空苯乙烯多纯苯），预期苯乙烯供应过剩或纯苯成本抬升。 纯苯和苯乙烯同属原油 下游化工品，成本传导影响不同。下游需求对苯乙烯影响更大，价格弹性更足。研究两者价差规律可规 避原油和宏观干扰。 2024年，两者价差大幅波动，与调油逻辑等外在干扰因素及产业链传导滞后有 关。2025年以来，苯乙烯和纯苯价差先扩后缩，受阶段性错配和季节性规律影响。后续需关注PO/SM及 非一体化工艺利润压缩，是否会导致苯乙烯装置计划外减产或停车。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report explores the price spread between pure benzene and styrene, aiming to understand its fluctuation patterns and influencing factors. By analyzing the supply - demand relationship of the two products and their price spread, it provides investment suggestions and risk warnings for market participants [3][6]. - The price spread between pure benzene and styrene can reflect the expansion or contraction of processing profits. Studying this spread can help avoid the interference of crude oil and macro - factors [3][6]. - In 2024, the spread fluctuated greatly due to external factors like the blending logic and the lag in industrial chain transmission. In 2025, the spread first widened and then narrowed, affected by phased mismatches and seasonal patterns [3][7]. - Short - term, the fundamentals of pure benzene are better than those of styrene. If the import negative impact of pure benzene leads to the spread expanding to the upper limit of the range, one can consider shorting the styrene - pure benzene spread. Attention should be paid to the risk of unplanned production cuts or shutdowns of styrene plants [18]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene Supply and Demand Situation - China has become the world's largest pure benzene producer. By December 2024, the national pure benzene production capacity increased to 25.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%, and the output increased to 20.9347 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [4]. - China has a high import dependence on pure benzene. In 2024, the national pure benzene import volume was 4.313 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. South Korea, Brunei, and Thailand are the main import sources. It is expected that the import volume in 2025 will remain high [4]. - In 2025, there are many planned new projects in the downstream of pure benzene. New styrene devices are expected to increase the consumption of pure benzene by 2.44 million tons, new caprolactam devices by 0.67 million tons, and new phenol devices by 0.46 million tons [4]. - In July - August 2025, the domestic pure benzene supply decreased while demand increased, and the static fundamentals improved slightly. However, due to high imports, the inventory reduction slope may be slow. In the medium - to - long - term, the upward space of the absolute price of pure benzene may be limited [5]. II. Analysis of the Price Spread Law between Pure Benzene and Styrene - The price spread between pure benzene and styrene can reflect the expansion or contraction of processing profits. Studying this spread can avoid the interference of crude oil and macro - factors [3][6]. - In 2020, the spread narrowed by 40% in a few days due to the impact of the epidemic. In 2022, during the Russia - Ukraine conflict, pure benzene prices soared while styrene followed the increase weakly. From 2023 - 2024, due to over - capacity of styrene, the spread center decreased from 3,300 yuan/ton to below 1,200 yuan/ton [6]. - In 2024, the spread fluctuated between [- 200, 1,800], which was related to external factors such as the blending logic and the lag in industrial chain transmission [7]. - In 2025, the price spread between styrene and pure benzene remained above 1,000 yuan/ton. Due to the frequent faulty maintenance of some large - scale styrene plants and strong downstream demand, styrene inventory reduction exceeded expectations [10]. - In 2025, the slow de - stocking of pure benzene in East China ports and high invisible inventory dragged down the price. However, from early July, the port began to de - stock, and the price rebounded from a low level [13]. - In August - September 2025, multiple downstream devices of pure benzene are planned to be put into production, and the supply - demand fundamentals of the spot market are affected by the progress of new devices. Styrene has increased supply pressure, and the inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged in August [15][17]. - The price spread between styrene and pure benzene has fluctuated between 1,000 - 2,000 yuan this year. Short - term, the fundamentals of pure benzene are better than those of styrene. If the spread expands to the upper limit of the range, one can consider shorting the styrene - pure benzene spread [18].