1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Cost - Neutral; Device changes - Cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bullish [5] - PX: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Device changes - Cautiously bearish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Cautiously bullish; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Neutral [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Device changes - Cautiously bearish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: PTA supply - demand changes are small, with expected inventory accumulation. Crude oil and the PTA - Brent oil spread are at relatively low levels, and there is limited downward space in the short term. The far - month is expected to be better than the near - term. The spot market is weak, and the cost side is neutral. There is inventory accumulation pressure from November to December [5][59]. - PX: PTA has planned production capacity, PX supply - demand is acceptable, the spot market is tight, PXN has recovered, and the valuation is relatively reasonable. It will follow the cost in the short term. The supply - demand balance pressure from October to November is not large, and the inventory is not high [6]. - Ethylene glycol: The price of the ethylene glycol industry chain is at a low level. The supply is difficult to clear, and there is a lack of short - term supply - demand drivers. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions. There is inventory accumulation pressure from October [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: PTA device maintenance is in progress as planned. YS New Material has restarted, YS Ningbo reduced its load due to weather, Hengli 1 is under maintenance, and YS Hainan, Dahua, and Zhongtai are under maintenance. Dushan's new device has a trial - run plan next week, and Dushan 1 has a maintenance plan [46][59]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 217.6 tons, up 1.6 tons. The market basis is weakly stable [50]. - **Balance Sheet**: In October, it is balanced, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure from November to December. The valuation is not high, the cost is weak, and the fundamentals are weak [58][59]. - **Demand**: As of October 17, the polyester operating rate was 91.4%, remaining at a high level. The operating rate assessment for October - November is 91.5% (+0.5%) and 90% (+1%). After the holiday, the load of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable at 80%, 69%, and 78%. Autumn and winter orders are acceptable [59]. PX - **Device Changes**: The domestic PX load is 84.9%, and the Asian load is 78%. Wushi Petrochemical is under planned maintenance, Yangzi Petrochemical and Hengli slightly reduced their loads, and Shenghong Petrochemical slightly increased its load. Overseas, FCFC in Taiwan, China (720,000 tons) is under maintenance, and PTTG has a maintenance plan in late October [81][86]. - **Balance Sheet**: In the fourth quarter, the PX balance remains low, the spot floating price has slightly improved, and PXN has recovered. It will follow the cost in the short term [86]. - **Market Conditions**: The spread between the PX outer and inner markets has narrowed, the PX 11 - January spread is weak, and the TA01 processing fee is weak [87]. Ethylene Glycol - **Device Changes**: The overall domestic load is 77.16%, and the synthetic - gas - based load is 81.89%. CNOOC Shell has restarted after maintenance, Fulian is under maintenance, Shenghong has a maintenance plan in the second half of the month, and Yulong has restarted at 60% capacity. Some coal - chemical devices are under maintenance or restarted. Overseas, Formosa Plastics' No. 1 plant in Taiwan, China, Maoming Petrochemical, and Shell in the US and Canada are under maintenance [100][117]. - **Inventory**: As of October 13, the port inventory in East China was about 579,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,000 tons. The arrival volume is moderately low, and the short - term port inventory is expected to remain stable with a slight decline. The polyester factory's raw - material inventory days are 12.5 days (-0.3) [127]. - **Balance Sheet**: In October, it is in a loose balance, and inventory accumulates rapidly from November to December. The market lacks upward drivers and is weak in the short term [129][132].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway has agreed to acquire Occidental Petroleum's chemical subsidiary OxyChem for $9.7 billion in cash, marking a strategic move to reduce Occidental's debt while enhancing Berkshire's portfolio in the chemical sector [1][2][9]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition is orchestrated by Greg Abel, who is identified as Buffett's successor, and represents his first major merger since the announcement of his succession [2][9]. - The deal is characterized as a "Berkshire-style" transaction, aiding Occidental in reducing its $24 billion debt burden, with $6.5 billion of the proceeds earmarked for debt repayment to lower liabilities below $15 billion [2][6]. - Following the announcement, Occidental's stock fell by 7.3%, reflecting market concerns about the nature of the transaction as a "rescue" [2]. Group 2: Implications for Occidental Petroleum - The sale of OxyChem is a critical step in Occidental's plan to cut its debt, which has been exacerbated by previous acquisitions, including a $55 billion purchase of Anadarko Petroleum in 2019 [6]. - Analysts suggest that while the transaction aids in debt reduction, it may hinder OxyChem's anticipated free cash flow due to ongoing capital expenditures for expansion [4]. - The deal is seen as a necessary but costly move for Occidental's CEO Vicki Hollub, as the company has faced increasing investor concerns over its financial health, with stock prices dropping over 17% in the past year [6]. Group 3: Benefits for Berkshire Hathaway - For Berkshire, acquiring OxyChem allows it to control one of the largest independent producers of petrochemicals globally, enhancing its industrial portfolio [5][8]. - The transaction is viewed as a strategic investment that not only stabilizes Berkshire's investment in Occidental, which it holds a 29.6% stake in, but also positions the company favorably within the chemical industry [4][8]. - This acquisition is the largest for Berkshire since its $11.6 billion purchase of Alleghany in 2022, showcasing Abel's decisive approach to capital allocation [9]. Group 4: Market Perception and Future Outlook - The sale of OxyChem simplifies Occidental's business structure, potentially making it a more attractive target for future acquisitions in the energy sector [10]. - The transaction creates a "win-win" scenario for both companies, with Berkshire acquiring a quality asset at a favorable price while ensuring that the proceeds are used to strengthen its investment in Occidental [10].

Core Insights - The research team conducted visits to 13 upstream and downstream production enterprises and traders of benzene and styrene in East China in 2024, confirming the price fluctuation patterns between benzene and styrene [1] - The relationship between supply and demand in the industrial chain allows for strategies to either long or short the price spread, reflecting the expansion or contraction of processing profits [1] - The price spread is expected to widen when styrene demand increases or when there is an oversupply of benzene, while a narrowing spread indicates an oversupply of styrene or rising costs of benzene [1] Industry Analysis - Benzene and styrene are both downstream chemical products of crude oil, with differing impacts from cost transmission [1] - Downstream demand has a greater influence on styrene, which exhibits higher price elasticity [1] - The significant fluctuations in the price spread between benzene and styrene in 2024 are attributed to external factors such as crude oil pricing logic and the lag in industrial chain transmission [1] Future Considerations - Since 2025, the price spread between styrene and benzene has first widened and then narrowed, influenced by phase mismatches and seasonal patterns [1] - Attention should be paid to the potential compression of profits in PO/SM and non-integrated processes, which may lead to unplanned production cuts or shutdowns of styrene facilities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, and the dollar is oscillating at a low level, boosting the non - ferrous market. The domestic copper inventory is low, and the smelter processing fees are gradually stabilizing and rising. The Shanghai copper is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term but still maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be tight, but the sentiment has declined. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and the follow - up start - up situation of other mines needs to be monitored [9]. - Crude oil is in the seasonal travel peak. Although there are factors such as OPEC+ production increase and concerns about the US economy, the market is tight in the peak season. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure on crude oil increases if the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire occurs, but there is uncertainty. The crude oil futures price has fallen again, and the short - term volatility is large [10]. - The asphalt supply is expected to increase, the demand is restricted by factors such as rainfall, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near future [12]. - The PP downstream recovery is slow, the supply has new production capacity and increasing maintenance, and the cost decreases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - The plastic downstream is in the off - season, but there are signs of improvement. The supply has new production capacity. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [15]. - The PVC supply is increasing, the demand has not improved substantially, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate downward. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [17]. - The coking coal inventory of mines has decreased significantly, and the inventory of steel mills and coke enterprises has increased. The coke price increase has not been implemented, and the coking coal is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. - The urea supply has narrow - range fluctuations, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand. Affected by the parade, the market is expected to be weakly sorted [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 13, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Rapeseed oil rose more than 3%, soybean meal and soybean No. 2 rose nearly 3%, and rapeseed meal rose more than 2%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell more than 5%, industrial silicon fell more than 3%, coking coal fell 3%, coke fell nearly 3%, and polysilicon fell more than 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures generally rose [4]. - As of 15:27 on August 13, in terms of capital inflows of domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 8.507 billion, CSI 500 2509 had an inflow of 4.343 billion, and SSE 50 2509 had an inflow of 3.75 billion. In terms of outflows, coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 1.303 billion, palm oil 2509 had an outflow of 635 million, and Shanghai gold 2510 had an outflow of 613 million [4]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Varieties 3.2.1 Copper - The weakening of the dollar and the expected Fed rate cut support the non - ferrous market. The domestic consumption loan policy boosts the downstream demand sentiment. The supply of copper concentrates has increased, and the TC/RC fees have stabilized and rebounded. The current demand is weak, but the inventory has not increased significantly, supporting the copper price [7]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate opened low and closed slightly down. The supply is expected to be affected by the shutdown of Ningde Times' mine, and the demand has increased in terms of inquiry activity, but there is still a wait - and - see attitude [8][9]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price. The IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus in 2025, and the market is tight in the peak season. Concerns about the US economy and the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire increase the downward pressure on crude oil [10]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate has declined, the expected production in August has decreased, the downstream start - up rates vary, and the inventory is at a low level. The narrowing of the raw material discount and the weakening of cost support are expected to lead to weak oscillations [12]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP has increased slightly, the enterprise start - up rate has risen, the inventory is at a high level, the cost has decreased, and the supply has new production capacity and increasing maintenance. It is expected to oscillate [13]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate is at a moderately high level, the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, the inventory is high, the cost has decreased, and the supply has new production capacity. The off - season has not ended, but there are signs of improvement. It is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate has increased, the downstream start - up rate is still low, the export situation is uncertain, the inventory is high, the real estate demand is weak, and there is new production capacity. It is expected to oscillate downward [16][17]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - The coking coal price opened high and closed with a decline. The coal mine inventory has decreased, the inventory of steel mills and coke enterprises has increased, the coke price increase has not been implemented, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. 3.2.9 Urea - The urea price opened low and closed flat. The production is fluctuating narrowly, the demand is weak due to factors such as the parade, the inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand. It is expected to be weakly sorted [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers trading strategies and trend analysis for various commodities. For example, copper is supported by a weak dollar; zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has a positive outlook due to peak - season expectations; nickel's upside is limited by changes in the mining and smelting sectors; stainless steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity; and lithium carbonate may continue to experience high volatility [3][6]. Summary by Commodity Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak dollar supports copper prices. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,920 yuan with a 1.31% daily increase, and the London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,879 dollars with a - 0.17% change. Japanese JX Metal will cut refined copper production, and China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: It is at a short - term high. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,410 yuan with a 0.76% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Lead**: There are peak - season expectations supporting prices. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,125 yuan with a - 0.58% change. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's support from the mining end is weakening, and the smelting end limits its upside. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,480 yuan. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan. There are multiple industry news such as project startups and production resumptions in the nickel industry [14][15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High volatility may continue due to fundamental pressure and warehouse - receipt contradictions. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by production - cut news, and attention should be paid to its upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment. The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,030 yuan, and the PS2508 contract of polysilicon closed at 33,315 yuan [21]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations. The 12509 contract closed at 716.5 yuan with a 1.56% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,995 yuan with a 0.98% increase, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,121 yuan with a 0.94% increase. There are changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Ferro, Manganese Ferro)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. Silicon ferro is boosted by spot sentiment, and manganese ferro is boosted by port quotes. The silicon ferro 2509 contract closed at 5370 yuan, and the manganese ferro 2509 contract closed at 5670 yuan [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both show a tendency to be strong with fluctuations. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 847.5 yuan with a 3.42% increase, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1421.5 yuan with a 1.86% increase [34][35]. - **Steam Coal**: It stabilizes with fluctuations as daily consumption recovers. The ZC2507 contract had no trading, and previous prices showed a decline [39][40]. - **Log**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with a contract - main switch. The 2507 contract closed at 819 yuan [43]. - **Paraxylene, PTA, MEG**: Paraxylene supply is shrinking, and the month - spread is strong; PTA is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is weak on a single - side basis. Paraxylene's 9 - 1 month - spread shows a positive trend, and PTA and MEG have their own supply - demand and cost - related factors [46][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run with short - term fluctuations. The main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,275 yuan. The industry has inventory and price changes [52]. - **Asphalt**: It shows weak fluctuations, and long - crack spread positions should consider taking profits. The BU2507 contract closed at 3,577 yuan. Refinery inventory rates decreased [55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - end fundamentals in the producing areas have limited improvement, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal rebounds with fluctuations, and risks related to the USDA report should be avoided. Soybean No.1 has a stable spot price and a rebounding and fluctuating futures price [5]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to auctions [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound consolidation [5]. - **Cotton**: Optimistic sentiment drives the futures price to rise with fluctuations [5]. - **Eggs**: Gradually arrange short positions in far - month contracts [5]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term adjustment [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [5].

Group 1: Oil Price Surge - Since June 13, the conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, leading to a significant increase in international oil prices, surpassing $70 per barrel [2] - As of June 17, WTI crude oil closed at $74.84 per barrel, up 4.28%, while Brent crude closed at $76.45 per barrel, up 4.40% [3] - From June 13 to June 17, WTI crude oil increased by nearly $7 per barrel, approximately a 10% rise, and Brent crude oil also saw a similar increase [3] Group 2: Chemical Product Price Increases - The rise in crude oil prices has supported price increases in downstream chemical products, with notable price hikes in propylene, pure benzene, and methanol [5] - On June 13, propylene prices were reported at 6410-6460 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.02% increase, while pure benzene and styrene also saw significant price increases of 4.1% and 3.42%, respectively [5] - Methanol, which is significantly imported from Iran, saw its price rise to 2670-2680 yuan/ton, an increase of 192.5 yuan/ton or 7.75% [5] Group 3: Stock Market Reactions - Energy and chemical companies' stock prices have surged, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and Shandong Molong experiencing significant gains, including multiple trading days of price limits [6] - From June 13 to June 18, Tongyuan Petroleum's stock rose by 75.36%, while other companies like Shandong Molong and Jun Oil also saw substantial increases [6] Group 4: Company Performance and Market Dynamics - Tongyuan Petroleum clarified that its core business in oil and gas development is not directly affected by the Iran-Israel conflict, as it primarily provides technical services [7] - Jun Oil's performance has been under pressure due to reduced demand and profit margins, with ongoing losses reported from 2022 to Q1 2025 [8] - Jin Niu Chemical, which focuses on methanol production, indicated that its operations remain stable, with no significant changes in market demand or supply [10]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Fumiao Technology Co., Ltd. is issuing convertible bonds to unspecified objects, with a total fundraising amount of RMB 450 million, aimed at enhancing its financial position and supporting future projects [3][4][14]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue 4.5 million convertible bonds, each with a face value of RMB 100, totaling RMB 45 million [3][4]. - The bonds will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange starting January 9, 2023, under the name "Fumiao Convertible Bonds" with the code "118029" [4]. - The bonds have a maturity period of 6 years, with a structured interest rate that increases from 0.20% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [4][5]. Group 2: Key Terms of the Bonds - The initial conversion price for the bonds is set at RMB 20.26 per share, subject to adjustments based on various corporate actions [6][7]. - The bonds will pay interest annually, with the first payment occurring one year after issuance [5][6]. - Holders of the bonds have the right to convert them into shares during a specified period, which begins six months after issuance and ends at maturity [6][9]. Group 3: Credit Rating and Financial Outlook - The credit rating agency Dagong International has assigned a credit rating of "A" to both the company and the convertible bonds, with a stable outlook [14]. - The company faces challenges such as reduced profit margins due to rising production costs and declining demand, which may impact future revenue and profitability [14][15]. - The company reported a net loss for 2024, influenced by various factors including increased financial costs and lower sales prices [15][16].