Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Oscillatory and Wait-and-See" [7] Core View - The current pulp market supply-demand structure is loose, with significant pressure on the Russian needle basis, and prices remain suppressed in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and avoid blindly chasing short positions. Strategies include going long on the futures side when prices are low and selling out-of-the-money put options on the far-month options side [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 12.80% and a 3-year historical percentile of 19.7% [2] Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short pulp futures (sp2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [2] - For procurement management, when the inventory of paper-making enterprises is low and they hope to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to long pulp futures (sp2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton [2] Market Quotes - **Futures**: sp2511 closed at 4856 (+0), sp2601 closed at 5152 (-18) [3] - **Spot**: Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5500 yuan/ton (-0), Shandong Russian needle at 5000 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong Jinyu at 4250 yuan/ton (+0) [4] - **Port Inventory**: As of October 10, port inventory was 2.077 million tons (+44,000 tons) [4] - **Month Spread Structure**: Wait-and-see on the 11 - 01 reverse spread [4] Core Contradiction - Market sentiment is weak, with light spot trading. Fundamentally, the decline in the quoted price of foreign coniferous pulp, low acceptance of Russian needle spot, and slow destocking of port inventory restrict price performance. Supply pressure persists, with stable overseas coniferous pulp supply. In late August, the pulp shipped to China reached 1.67 million tons, higher than the seasonal average and a 5.7% month-on-month increase [4] - The continuous strengthening of the Russian needle basis is mainly driven by the sharp decline in futures prices, indicating the pressure on the spot market. Downstream demand is weak, with only white cardboard in the seasonal peak season. Other finished paper products face high enterprise inventory and low production profits, and the overall willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient [4] Pulp Quotation - Provides the latest prices, daily and weekly changes, and price ranges of various pulp futures contracts, domestic spot pulp, and domestic finished paper products [8] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the transfer, production cut, and price increase of overseas broadleaf pulp [11] - **Negative Factors**: High overseas shipments, high port inventory with slow destocking, weak peak-season demand downstream, and low willingness to accept Russian needle warehouse receipts [11]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is the Nanhua Pulp Industry Risk Management Daily, dated August 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 58.0% [2] - For inventory management with high - level softwood pulp inventory, it is recommended to short pulp futures (sp2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For procurement management when paper - making enterprises have low inventory, it is recommended to buy pulp futures (sp2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Spot Prices - The main contract closed at 5264 (+38) today [3] - In the spot market, Shandong Yinxing is quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Russian Needle at 5250 yuan/ton (-0), and Shandong Jinyu at 4150 yuan/ton (-0) [4] - Asia - Pacific Senbo announced a 150 - yuan/ton increase in the acceptance price of hardwood pulp for long - term contract customers only due to rising costs [4] - Market trading sentiment has improved, and downstream paper mills maintain rigid procurement [4] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - The market currently lacks obvious driving factors, but the fundamentals of pulp have marginally improved with the approaching downstream consumption peak season, overseas mill production cuts, and inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [5] Group 5: Price Quotes - Futures contracts: SP2509 closed at 5216 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 14 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 1.1% increase; SP2511 closed at 5264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day and 18 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 2% increase; sp2601 closed at 5488 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day and 84 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 1.55% increase [7][10] - CFR quotes: Softwood pulp was 870 US dollars/ton on August 11, 2025, unchanged; hardwood pulp was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged [10] - Domestic spot prices: Various types of softwood and hardwood pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, and natural pulp have different price quotes, with some showing slight increases or remaining stable; domestic finished paper prices also vary, with white卡纸 down 2.29% week - on - week and some other papers showing small changes [9]