Group 1: Report Information - The report is the Nanhua Pulp Industry Risk Management Daily, dated August 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 58.0% [2] - For inventory management with high - level softwood pulp inventory, it is recommended to short pulp futures (sp2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For procurement management when paper - making enterprises have low inventory, it is recommended to buy pulp futures (sp2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Spot Prices - The main contract closed at 5264 (+38) today [3] - In the spot market, Shandong Yinxing is quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Russian Needle at 5250 yuan/ton (-0), and Shandong Jinyu at 4150 yuan/ton (-0) [4] - Asia - Pacific Senbo announced a 150 - yuan/ton increase in the acceptance price of hardwood pulp for long - term contract customers only due to rising costs [4] - Market trading sentiment has improved, and downstream paper mills maintain rigid procurement [4] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - The market currently lacks obvious driving factors, but the fundamentals of pulp have marginally improved with the approaching downstream consumption peak season, overseas mill production cuts, and inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [5] Group 5: Price Quotes - Futures contracts: SP2509 closed at 5216 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 14 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 1.1% increase; SP2511 closed at 5264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day and 18 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 2% increase; sp2601 closed at 5488 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day and 84 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 1.55% increase [7][10] - CFR quotes: Softwood pulp was 870 US dollars/ton on August 11, 2025, unchanged; hardwood pulp was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged [10] - Domestic spot prices: Various types of softwood and hardwood pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, and natural pulp have different price quotes, with some showing slight increases or remaining stable; domestic finished paper prices also vary, with white卡纸 down 2.29% week - on - week and some other papers showing small changes [9]