Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current logic: The cancellation of warehouse receipts and the destocking of ports have improved the spot market sentiment, leading to a rebound in the futures market as short - sellers reduce their positions. The market is in a state of long - short game, with the pressure of high inventory and weak demand for softwood pulp in the real - world market and the supply cuts by overseas pulp mills due to cost and energy pressures being the key points of the game. The stable domestic fundamentals and historically low valuations support the spot and futures prices of pulp, but the主动 price cuts by overseas suppliers and the appreciation of the RMB have lowered the forward import cost, suppressing the upside potential of the futures market [16]. - Long - term outlook: The traditional consumption peak seasons in March and April are expected to provide seasonal support for the pulp market. Although there is a slight increase in shipments from overseas pulp mills, there is no large - scale new supply. The downstream factories continue their just - in - time procurement strategy, but the peak season will boost production and demand. The increased bargaining power of domestic downstream buyers has forced international pulp suppliers to lower their US - dollar quotes. With the appreciation of the RMB, the import cost has decreased, expanding the profit margin for downstream industries. If the price increase of finished paper can be successfully implemented, the industry's profit and price space will be further expanded, providing room for pulp price increases. However, the high port inventory and the decrease in forward import and warehouse - receipt costs may limit the upside potential of the near - and far - term futures markets, and the abundant supply in the spot and trading markets may lead to price and basis competition, making it difficult for the market to have a significant unilateral upward trend [17]. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Pulp Overview Supply Side - Domestic production: In this cycle, the sample production of domestic hardwood pulp was 261,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the previous cycle. The price of domestic hardwood pulp remained stable, but the market sentiment was weak, and the price was unlikely to fluctuate significantly. The production of chemimechanical pulp was 245,000 tons, unchanged from the previous cycle [7]. - Imports: In March, the total pulp import volume was 2.8 million tons, a decrease of 444,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year decrease of 5.56%. The import volume of hardwood pulp was 1.471 million tons, a decrease of 43,900 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year decrease of 5.08%. The import volume of softwood pulp was 580,000 tons, a decrease of 259,400 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.96%. The import volume of softwood chips was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import volume of hardwood chips was 1.146 million tons, a decrease of 382,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 11.14% [7]. Demand and Inventory Side - Demand: The production of downstream products such as tissue paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard increased slightly, and the pulp consumption also increased. The weekly pulp demand was 938,300 tons, an increase of 50,300 tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 5.69% [9]. - Inventory: Port inventory showed a destocking trend as downstream buyers replenished their stocks at low prices. The total port inventory was 2.229 million tons, a decrease of 102,000 tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 23.8%. The warehouse - receipt inventory was in the process of continuous registration with a small amount of cancellation. The total inventory (port + warehouse - receipt) was 2.4003 million tons, a decrease of 102,900 tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 4.34%. The finished - product inventory of downstream products such as tissue paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard increased at a slower pace as terminal consumption gradually recovered [9]. Price and Spread - Quotations: Some foreign quotes for softwood pulp decreased by $10 per ton. - Spot prices: Supported by the expectation of inventory replenishment and the peak season, the spot prices had some support, but the high port inventory limited the upside potential. - Futures prices: The cancellation of warehouse receipts and port destocking improved the spot sentiment, leading to a rebound in the futures market. However, the active price cuts by overseas suppliers and the weak demand led to short - sellers increasing their positions. The market was in a long - short game, with high inventory and weak demand in the real - world market and supply cuts by overseas pulp mills being the key points of the game. The stable domestic fundamentals and low valuations provided some support for the spot and futures prices [11]. - Spreads: The difference between softwood and hardwood pulp prices continued to shrink to a relatively low level, which might drive the digestion of old softwood pulp. The spreads between different futures contracts were relatively stable, and the basis was also relatively stable [11]. Cost and Profit - Cost: The domestic production cost of hardwood pulp was relatively stable, while the import cost of pulp decreased due to the decrease in foreign quotes and the appreciation of the RMB. - Profit: The profit of domestic pulp production remained stable. The profit of imported pulp was expected to improve continuously. The profit of finished paper improved due to the price increase of finished products and the decrease in raw material costs caused by the appreciation of the RMB [13]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory, and other data of pulp from January 2025 to April 2026, including domestic production, imports, downstream production, pulp consumption, inventory, and other indicators, which can be used to analyze the supply - demand relationship and market trends of the pulp market [21]. Part 3: Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis Global Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: The shipment of W20 global pulp to China is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content. - Demand and Inventory: The apparent demand and inventory in Europe are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content. Domestic Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side - Pulp imports: The import volume of pulp, including softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, chemimechanical pulp, and本色 pulp, is analyzed, and the import volume and year - on - year changes of different types of pulp from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [36][39][59]. - Wood chip imports: The import volume of softwood chips and hardwood chips from 2022 to 2025 is analyzed, and the import volume and year - on - year changes are presented through charts [67]. - Demand Side - Pulp apparent demand: The apparent demand of pulp is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content. - Downstream finished - paper analysis: The production, supply, demand, and other aspects of downstream finished papers such as tissue paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard are analyzed, and the production capacity and expected commissioning time of some paper mills are also provided [90]. - Inventory Side: The total inventory of pulp, including warehouse - receipt inventory and port inventory, is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content. Part 4: Cost and Profit - Pulp import cost and profit: The import cost and profit of pulp are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content. - Domestic pulp production cost and profit: The production cost and profit of domestic pulp are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Pulp foreign quotes: The foreign quotes of pulp are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content. - Spot price seasonality: The seasonality of spot prices is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content. - Spot spread seasonality: The seasonality of spot spreads is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content. - Basis: The basis is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content. - SP main - contract seasonal chart and inter - month spread: The seasonal chart and inter - month spread of the SP main contract are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the given content.

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping - Analyst Qualification Number: F3002581 - Transaction Consultation License Number: Z0012806 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The current logic is that the trading sentiment in the spot market has weakened. With the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market is facing pressure from hedging positions. - On the basis of stable fundamentals, the strong price support from the forward overseas market still provides support for domestic pulp spot and forward prices, limiting the downside space of the futures market. - In the long - term, the overseas shipments in January are still decreasing, and there is no significant pressure on short - term arrivals. After the simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices, the spot trading has slightly weakened. As the futures price rises and reaches the risk - free hedging position for some European and Canadian softwood pulp again, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts, upward pressure may emerge. Although the fundamentals have improved, there are no actual factors to drive up the price. - Pulp sentiment remains for now, and it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. However, if contradictions in the real - world market gradually accumulate (such as the port inventory turning to accumulation, new warehouse receipts being registered successively, and spot trading weakening) or the macro - sentiment weakens, pulp may shift to a weakly volatile trend. - Strategy recommendation: The commodity sector is improving, and there are still risks in the energy and chemical market due to international situations and macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see during the day. If the spot price is stable and one holds deliverable forward goods at a suitable cost, one can choose to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract at high prices to meet the risk - free hedging needs at high levels [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained basically stable this week. The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased by 150 yuan/ton, but the spot price was stable, and the market had sufficient spot supply. - Import: In November 2025, China's pulp imports were 324.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The cumulative annual imports were 3292.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The shipments of softwood and hardwood pulp from pulp - producing countries to China rebounded in November, and it is estimated that the domestic arrivals in January will increase month - on - month [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production was stable, with no obvious demand - side drivers. The maintenance equipment for coated paper has resumed normal production, and the production of coated paper has increased slightly. - Inventory: As the spot price became firmer and the downstream replenishment came to an end with reduced willingness, the port inventory gradually shifted to accumulation. Under the high price of far - month contracts, there were hedging opportunities for some low - priced European softwood pulp, and the warehouse receipts in the contracts have increased successively. The downstream finished - product inventory is in a state of shock adjustment [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Price: The overseas quotation increased, the spot price of hardwood pulp remained firm with relatively tight market liquidity, and the futures price was also firm. The price of softwood pulp was firm, but the buying demand was weak, and the demand was average. After the large - scale replenishment by major manufacturers ended, the spot trading weakened slightly, but the price remained relatively firm. The trading sentiment in the spot market weakened, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market was facing pressure from hedging positions. The finished - product price remained stable, and there were no price increase notices. - Spread: The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp continued to shrink to a relatively low level, which may drive the digestion of old softwood pulp. The far - month futures price continued to strengthen, and the spread shrank. The futures price corrected, the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [11]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of domestic pulp remained stable, and the cost of imported pulp increased due to the increase in overseas prices. - Profit: The profit of domestic pulp is expected to rise slightly. The profit of imported pulp is expected to be further compressed due to the increase in overseas prices. The raw material cost of paper continued to rise. Although the finished - product price also increased, the profit was still affected [13]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly pulp balance sheet from January 2025 to January 2026, including data on imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, factory inventory, apparent demand, and inventory (including port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and total inventory) [19]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The global pulp shipment volume is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. - Demand and Inventory: The apparent demand and inventory in Europe are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Analyzes various aspects of supply, including pulp imports, softwood pulp imports, hardwood pulp imports, softwood pulp imports by country, imports of chemimechanical pulp and unbleached pulp, and imports of softwood and hardwood chips, and provides historical data from 2022 - 2025 [33][37][40]. - Demand: Analyzes pulp apparent demand and downstream finished - product paper (including toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard), and provides information on the planned production capacity of some paper mills [73][88]. - Inventory: Analyzes pulp total inventory, including the sum of port inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [117]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - Analyzes the import cost and profit of pulp and the production cost and profit of domestic pulp [125][128]. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Analyzes pulp overseas quotations, spot price seasonality, spot spread seasonality, basis, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of the SP main contract [132][137][141]