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中泰期货纸浆周报-20250727
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 09:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The paper pulp market is currently in a state of weak reality versus bullish sentiment on the futures market. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate upwards due to sentiment, but the upward space is limited. Given the current lack of significant improvement in the fundamentals, the market may correct after the release of the bullish sentiment. It is recommended to observe whether the de - stocking at ports continues and whether spot trading improves in the short term. Holders of physical pulp are advised to sell call options on rallies [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - **Domestic Production**: The weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 20.50 million tons in the week of July 25, 2025, a decrease of 0.10 million tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.26%. The production of chemimechanical pulp was 21.00 million tons, a decrease of 0.50 million tons from the previous week. Weak downstream demand and low purchasing sentiment are expected to keep domestic pulp prices under pressure next week [7][8]. - **Imports**: In June 2025, China's total pulp imports were 3.031 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3%. The cumulative imports for the year were 18.578 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The imports of softwood pulp were 678 million tons, a decrease of 44 million tons from the previous month, a decline of 1.92%. The imports of broad - leaf pulp were 1.435 billion tons, an increase of 142 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 8.00%. Affected by overseas shipping and seasonal factors, the arrivals in July and August are expected to be stable, but the arrival of softwood pulp is still expected to be weak [8]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - **Downstream Production**: The downstream production of pulp remained stable this week. The production of household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard showed little change. The new production capacity is being gradually put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable production but gradually decreasing operating rates and oscillating inventory [9]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is in the process of de - stocking, and it is necessary to observe whether this trend continues. Warehouse receipt inventory is stable with a tendency to de - stock. Low prices have led to insufficient registration of new warehouse receipts, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. Downstream inventory is in a state of oscillating accumulation during the off - season, but production and sales are basically balanced [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - **Prices**: The external quotation of pulp is expected to decline. Spot prices are rising in quotation but weak in actual transactions. The futures price is oscillating, with a contradiction between positive policy sentiment and weak fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the policy orientation may push up the bottom gradually. The prices of finished paper products are gradually decreasing as they enter the off - season [11][12]. - **Spreads**: The spread between softwood and broad - leaf pulp is expected to narrow but with limited amplitude. Affected by policy sentiment and the expectation of the peak season, the spread between the September and January contracts has widened. After the futures price rose this week, the spot price struggled to rise, causing the basis to weaken [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to observe whether the port de - stocking continues and whether spot trading improves in the short term. Given the limited upward and downward space, holders of physical pulp are advised to sell call options on rallies [17]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly balance sheet of pulp from January 2024 to August 2025, including data on downstream production, imports, domestic production, total supply, consumption, demand, and inventory. The cumulative supply and demand of pulp show different growth rates in different periods, and the inventory situation also changes accordingly [19]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume**: No specific data analysis is provided in the current content. - **Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory**: No specific data analysis is provided in the current content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: - **Pulp Imports**: The report presents the import volume and cumulative import volume of different types of pulp (softwood pulp, broad - leaf pulp, chemimechanical pulp, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, as well as the import volume and cumulative import volume of wood chips (softwood chips, broad - leaf wood chips). The import volume of different types of pulp shows different trends in different years and months [40][46][80]. - **Production Capacity and Planned Projects**: There are many planned and under - construction projects for finished paper products in the second half of the year. For example, there are 1.7 billion tons of planned white cardboard projects in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the monthly output of white cardboard will increase gradually, with an average monthly output of over 1.4 billion tons and an average capacity utilization rate of over 80% [101]. - **Demand - side**: - **Pulp Apparent Demand**: No specific data analysis is provided in the current content. - **Finished Paper Products**: The report analyzes the supply (production, import), demand (export, apparent demand) of different types of finished paper products (household paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), and presents relevant data from 2022 to 2025 [92][103][119]. - **Inventory - side**: - **Total Pulp Inventory, Warehouse Receipts, and Port Inventory**: The report shows the changes in total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory from 2022 to 2025 [145]. - **Inventory by Port**: The report presents the weekly inventory changes of pulp in different ports (Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Gaolan Port, Changshu Port) from 2022 to 2025 [149]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Pulp Import Cost and Profit**: The import cost of pulp shows different trends, and the spot quotation is rising, leading to a rebound in immediate import profit [14][157]. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: The cost of domestic pulp is relatively stable, and the profit is showing a downward trend. Domestic pulp has raised its quotation under the anti - involution policy, and the market acceptance is acceptable at relatively low prices [14][160]. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **Pulp External Quotation**: The external quotation of different types of pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle, Goldfish, etc.) shows different trends in different years and months [166]. - **Price and Spread Seasonality**: The report presents the seasonal price changes of different types of pulp and the seasonal spread changes between different types of pulp [171][176]. - **Basis**: The report analyzes the basis between different types of pulp and the futures contract, and the basis has shown different trends in different periods [178][186].
中泰期货纸浆周报-20250721
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 12:49
Report Information - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping [7][9][12] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is currently in a complex situation with a game between policy sentiment and weak fundamentals. The policy sentiment is upward, but the actual market situation is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5600 - 4800, but the policy orientation may cause the bottom to gradually shift upwards. It is recommended to hold spot and adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating put options to increase income when the price is high [12][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview - **Supply - end**: Domestic chemical mechanical pulp production increased significantly in the cycle due to the commissioning of new production capacity, and most of it is used by the supporting paper machines of major pulp mills. In June 2025, China's pulp import volume was 3.031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 18.578 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Affected by overseas shipping and domestic import seasonality, the expected arrivals in July and August are relatively stable, but the expected arrival of softwood pulp is still weak [8]. - **Demand and Inventory - end**: Downstream production is stable during the off - season, with new production capacity being put into operation, but terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable production but gradually decreasing operating rates and inventory tending to accumulate. Port inventory has resumed accumulation, suppressing market confidence. Warehouse receipt inventory has decreased as some paper mills are interested in purchasing cheap Russian softwood pulp, causing some warehouse receipts to be cancelled and flow to downstream factories, and some to be converted into general warehouse spot goods. New warehouse receipt registrations are insufficient, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. Downstream finished product inventory is in a state of shock and accumulation [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: Domestic pulp prices have rebounded, and the market acceptance is acceptable under relatively low prices due to the anti - involution policy. The spot price of imported pulp has increased, and the immediate import profit has rebounded. As the off - season approaches, the prices of finished products have gradually decreased, and the profit has also shown signs of weakening. Currently, the domestic raw material spot price provides support, and the profit of finished products has rebounded [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The macro - level meeting has improved the sentiment in the commodity market, but the spot market is stable with weak trading volume. There is a game between the weak reality and the market sentiment, and the market is significantly affected by sentiment. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate upwards, but the increase is limited. Currently, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is necessary to observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and whether the spot trading volume improves. It is recommended to hold spot and adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating put options to increase income when the price is high [16]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly balance sheet of pulp from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream production, imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, demand, and inventory data, as well as their cumulative and year - on - year changes [18]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis**: - **Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis**: - **Supply - end**: - **Pulp Import**: The import volume of different types of pulp (softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, etc.) and wood chips (softwood chips, hardwood chips) is analyzed, including monthly data, cumulative data, and year - on - year changes from 2022 to 2025 [42][47][73][80]. - **Pulp Import Seasonality and Cumulative Data by Country**: Analyzes the import seasonality and cumulative import volume and year - on - year changes of softwood pulp from different countries (Russia, the United States, Finland, Canada, Chile) [50][60]. - **Demand - end**: - **Pulp Apparent Demand**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Analysis of Pulp's Downstream Finished Paper**: Analyzes the production, import, export, and apparent demand of different types of finished paper (toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), as well as the planned construction and commissioning of new production capacity [91][100][118]. - **Inventory - end**: Analyzes the total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, port inventory, and inventory by port, including weekly data from 2022 to 2025 [144][148]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - **Pulp Import Cost and Profit**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: Not detailed in the provided content. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **Pulp Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotations of different pulp varieties (Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, Goldfish, etc.), including price changes and expected trends [12]. - **Seasonal Price and Spread of Different Pulp Varieties**: Analyzes the seasonal price changes of different pulp varieties (Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, Goldfish, Asia - Pacific Senbo, etc.) and the seasonal spread between them, as well as the basis between pulp varieties and futures contracts [170][175][177].
农产品日报:郑糖跟随原糖下跌,棉价延续偏弱整理-20250604
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - All strategies for cotton, sugar, and pulp are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Views - The cotton market is affected by multiple factors including US policies, global supply - demand balance, and domestic production and demand. The price is expected to be volatile with a potential for a second dip [2][3] - The sugar market is facing a shift from global supply shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar, and its price is influenced by Brazilian production and domestic import [6][7] - The pulp market is affected by macro - factors, supply - demand relationship, and tariff uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,260 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,445 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,553 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 1st, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 66%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The budding rate was 8%, the same as last year and 1 point higher than the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 49%, 11 points lower than last year and 1 point higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and closed lower. The US tariff policy is uncertain, and the domestic economic stimulus effect needs to be observed [2] - The USDA has adjusted the global cotton supply - demand balance for the 25/26 season, but there are still many uncertainties. The new - season US cotton planting area has decreased, and the sowing progress is slow, but the drought in the main producing areas has improved [2] - In China, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the new - season planting area is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is in the off - season with insufficient new orders [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The key lies in the time when downstream demand decline is transmitted to the upstream [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,732 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4] - India's sugar inventory at the end of the 2024 - 25 season is estimated to be about 4865,000 tons, and the 2025 - 26 season is expected to see a strong production recovery with an estimated output of about 35 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to be weak. The raw sugar price has stopped falling, but the new - season Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the global supply in the 25/26 season is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [6] - In China, the drought in Guangxi has been basically relieved, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable. However, the weak external market and expected increase in long - term import pressure limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on Brazilian production and domestic import rhythm [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2507 contract was 5,304 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-2.03%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,375 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [8] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some price adjustments in individual varieties [8] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the pulp futures price fluctuated and declined. The macro - environment has a significant impact on the pulp market, and the tariff risk has been temporarily alleviated [9] - The cost support of pulp has weakened, the supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak, and the off - season is coming [9] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to macro - uncertainties and weak demand [10]
中泰期货纸浆周报-20250526
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 13:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there are no significant contradictions between supply and demand in the pulp market. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of rigid demand but high inventory. Overall, the market will maintain a volatile trend when there is no obvious improvement or positive factors in demand. The arrival of pulp is expected to recover in May, decrease slightly in June, and the reduction of the Star brand is expected to affect the arrival in July. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment, and focus on the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products in the future [17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Overview 3.1.1 Supply - side - Domestic supply: This week, domestic pulp production showed a slight decline. The production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 200,000 tons, a decrease of 0.70 tons compared with last week, a decrease of 0.26%. The production of chemical mechanical pulp was 200,000 tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons compared with last week. The overall domestic supply was relatively stable [7][8] - Import supply: In April 2025, China's pulp import volume was 2.893 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 12.531 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.0%. Affected by overseas shipments and domestic import seasonality, the arrival is expected to recover in May, decrease slightly in June, and the reduction of the Star brand is expected to affect the arrival in July [8] 3.1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Downstream demand: This week, downstream pulp production was stable. The output of living paper was 300,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with last week; the output of offset paper was 210,800 tons, a slight increase compared with last week; the output of coated paper was 76,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with last week; the output of white cardboard was 297,900 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons compared with last week. Gradually entering the off - season, the downstream start - up rate was basically stable, but new production capacity was being put into operation, while terminal demand was limited, resulting in stable production but a continuous decline in the start - up rate and approaching inventory accumulation [10] - Inventory situation: This week, port inventory decreased. The total port inventory was 2.162 million tons, an increase of 0.4 tons compared with last week. The decrease in prices stimulated the replenishment willingness of some paper mills, and spot transactions improved. The warehouse receipt inventory also decreased. The total warehouse receipt inventory was 248,273 tons, a decrease of 4,359 tons compared with last week. The price decline led some paper mills to be interested in purchasing cheap Russian needles, and some warehouse receipts were cancelled and flowed to downstream factories [10] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - Cost: The domestic cost of broad - leaf pulp was 3,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared with last week; the import cost of Silver Star was 5,952 yuan/ton, a decrease of 259 yuan/ton compared with last week. The cost of imported pulp generally showed a downward trend [13] - Profit: The apparent profit of domestic pulp was acceptable, but the actual transaction price continued to decline. The import pulp spot price decreased, which affected the downstream purchasing willingness to some extent. The profit of domestic pulp is expected to decline, while the spot price of imported pulp decreased with the market, and the immediate import profit is expected to recover. The profit of paper products improved in the short - term due to the decline in raw material prices, but as it approached the off - season, the price of finished products decreased, and the profit also showed a weakening trend [13] 3.1.4 Price and Spread - Price: The foreign market quotation decreased significantly. For example, the quotation of Silver Star decreased from 770 US dollars/ton to 740 US dollars/ton. The spot price of needles was relatively strong, and the basis remained at a high level. The broad - leaf pulp was close to the domestic cost line, and the downward space was relatively limited, showing a certain degree of stability. The futures price fluctuated in a pattern of weak demand and high inventory [15] - Spread: The spread between needles and broad - leaves remained at a high level. The spread between Silver Star and Goldfish continued to be high, breaking through 2,000 and approaching the historical extreme value. Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures market entered a positive arbitrage logic, and the demand for far - month contracts was relatively pessimistic. The basis was relatively stable this week [15] 3.1.5 Strategy Recommendation - The reason for market fluctuations: The spot market was relatively stable, and cultural paper companies successively issued price increase letters with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The downstream start - up rates of different paper types showed different trends [17] - Future outlook: In the short - term, there are no significant contradictions between supply and demand, and the market will maintain a volatile trend. The arrival of pulp is expected to recover in May, decrease slightly in June, and the reduction of the Star brand is expected to affect the arrival in July [17] - Trading logic and suggestions: Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment. The fundamentals are short - term volatile, and focus on the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [17] 3.2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory situation of pulp from January 2024 to June 2025. It includes data such as domestic production, import volume, downstream production, pulp consumption, and inventory. For example, in April 2025, the domestic production was 317,900 tons, the import volume was 2.893 million tons, and the total supply was 5.4492 million tons [20] 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Global Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis - Global pulp shipping volume: No specific data analysis was provided in the content - European apparent demand and inventory: No specific data analysis was provided in the content 3.3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply - side - Pulp import: The import volume showed certain fluctuations. In April 2025, the total pulp import volume decreased compared with the previous month [8] - Bleached softwood pulp import: The import volume of bleached softwood pulp from different countries showed different seasonal and cumulative trends. For example, the import volume of Russian bleached softwood pulp and its cumulative import volume and year - on - year changes were presented [49][70] - Other pulp imports: The import of chemical mechanical pulp, unbleached pulp, needle chips, and broad - leaf chips also showed different trends [79][86] - Demand - side - Pulp apparent demand: No specific data analysis was provided in the content - Downstream finished paper analysis - Production capacity and production plan: There are a large number of planned and under - construction projects for domestic pulp - related products in the future. For example, there are many new production capacity plans for living paper, cultural paper, and white cardboard in different regions. However, due to factors such as the slow growth of downstream demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the white cardboard industry has increased, affecting the production progress of some production capacity [106] - Import and export of finished paper: The import and export volume of different types of finished paper showed different trends. For example, the import volume of living paper was relatively small, and the export volume of some paper types showed certain fluctuations [109][125] - Inventory - side - Total pulp inventory, warehouse receipts, and port inventory: The total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory showed different trends over time. For example, the total pulp inventory showed a certain degree of volatility, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased this week [10][152] - Inventory by port: The inventory of different ports such as Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, and Changshu Port also showed different trends [156][157][159] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Pulp import cost and profit: The import cost of pulp decreased, and the immediate import profit is expected to recover [13] - Domestic pulp production cost and profit: The apparent profit of domestic pulp was acceptable, but the actual profit was affected by the decline in transaction prices and the decrease in import pulp prices, showing a downward trend [13] 3.5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Foreign market quotation: The foreign market quotation of pulp decreased significantly [15] - Seasonal price and spread: The prices of different pulp brands such as Silver Star, Russian needle, and Goldfish showed different seasonal trends, and the spreads between them also showed different characteristics [179][184] - Basis: The basis between different pulp brands and futures contracts showed different trends over time. For example, the basis between Silver Star and futures contracts 07 and 09 showed certain fluctuations [186][187]
中泰期货纸浆周报-20250428
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 14:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and pulp prices have stopped falling and stabilized. There is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The import reduction in April and the expectation of US tariffs are still in a game with the weak demand and high inventory in the fundamentals. The pulp market will maintain a weak and volatile trend until the demand improves. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm in April and the spot inventory rhythm [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic: The domestic pulp production started to pick up slightly this week. The 700,000 - ton chemical pulp project of Huatai has been put into production successively, and Asia Symbol has gradually resumed production. The domestic supply is relatively stable. In the week of April 25, the output of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 181,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,100 tons; the output of chemi - mechanical pulp was 202,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 tons [6][7]. - Import: In March 2025, the total pulp import volume was 3.249 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The cumulative import volume was 9.639 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In the medium - term (late March and April), the shipments of both softwood and hardwood pulp decreased, especially for hardwood pulp. Although it recovered in May, considering the Sino - US tariff issue, it is expected that the import of softwood pulp from the US will decrease significantly from early June [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: The downstream pulp demand was 846,100 tons in the week of April 24, a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.56%. The downstream production of various types of paper was relatively stable, gradually entering the off - season [10]. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, with negative market purchasing and weak trading sentiment. The warehouse receipt inventory was basically stable, with a quantitative cancellation last week. The downstream finished - product inventory tended to fluctuate and accumulate as the downstream entered the off - season, but the production and sales were basically balanced [10]. 1.3 Cost and Profit - Cost: The spot pulp price declined with the market, and the foreign quotation decreased significantly. The domestic cost of broad - leaf pulp was 3,887 yuan/ton on April 25, a month - on - month increase of 76 yuan/ton; the cost of imported softwood pulp such as Silver Star decreased [12]. - Profit: The immediate import profit of pulp recovered, and the immediate profit of paper improved as raw material prices gradually declined. For example, the profit of Silver Star pulp was 80 yuan/ton on April 25, a significant improvement compared to - 283 yuan/ton on April 3 [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - The reasons for market fluctuations are the weak downstream start - up rates. The white cardboard start - up rate decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the offset paper increased by 0.1%, the coated paper increased by 0.3%, and the tissue paper decreased by 0.7%. - The future market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend until the demand improves. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment, and focus on the arrival rhythm in April and the spot inventory rhythm [15]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to May 2025, including import volume, domestic production, downstream production, pulp consumption, factory inventory, and total inventory. Overall, the growth rate of supply and demand has gradually slowed down, and the inventory has fluctuated [18]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The global pulp shipment volume showed a decreasing trend in the medium - term, especially for hardwood pulp. - Demand and Inventory: Information about European apparent demand and inventory is not detailed in the provided content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: - Import: The import volume of various types of pulp such as softwood and hardwood pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, and wood chips has different trends. For example, the import volume of softwood pulp from the US is expected to decrease significantly due to tariffs [7]. - Domestic Production: Some domestic pulp projects have been put into production or resumed production, increasing the domestic supply [7]. - Demand: - Pulp Apparent Demand: The overall demand is relatively stable but gradually enters the off - season. - Downstream Finished - Product Paper: The production of various types of finished - product paper such as tissue paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard is relatively stable, and there are some new production capacity plans and device changes [95]. - Inventory: The total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory have different trends, with the port inventory mainly accumulating and the warehouse receipt inventory being relatively stable [10]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - Pulp Import Cost and Profit: The import cost has decreased, and the profit has recovered. - Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit: The domestic production cost and profit situation are also affected by market price fluctuations. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Pulp Foreign Quotation: The foreign quotation of pulp has decreased, and other brands are also expected to follow the downward trend with a significant decline [14]. - Price Seasonality: The prices of various pulp brands such as Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish have different seasonal trends. - Spread Seasonality: The spreads between different pulp brands also show seasonal characteristics. - Basis: The basis of pulp is relatively stable, and the spot market fluctuates closely with the futures market, maintaining a high basis level [14].