Report Information - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping [7][9][12] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is currently in a complex situation with a game between policy sentiment and weak fundamentals. The policy sentiment is upward, but the actual market situation is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5600 - 4800, but the policy orientation may cause the bottom to gradually shift upwards. It is recommended to hold spot and adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating put options to increase income when the price is high [12][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview - **Supply - end**: Domestic chemical mechanical pulp production increased significantly in the cycle due to the commissioning of new production capacity, and most of it is used by the supporting paper machines of major pulp mills. In June 2025, China's pulp import volume was 3.031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 18.578 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Affected by overseas shipping and domestic import seasonality, the expected arrivals in July and August are relatively stable, but the expected arrival of softwood pulp is still weak [8]. - **Demand and Inventory - end**: Downstream production is stable during the off - season, with new production capacity being put into operation, but terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable production but gradually decreasing operating rates and inventory tending to accumulate. Port inventory has resumed accumulation, suppressing market confidence. Warehouse receipt inventory has decreased as some paper mills are interested in purchasing cheap Russian softwood pulp, causing some warehouse receipts to be cancelled and flow to downstream factories, and some to be converted into general warehouse spot goods. New warehouse receipt registrations are insufficient, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. Downstream finished product inventory is in a state of shock and accumulation [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: Domestic pulp prices have rebounded, and the market acceptance is acceptable under relatively low prices due to the anti - involution policy. The spot price of imported pulp has increased, and the immediate import profit has rebounded. As the off - season approaches, the prices of finished products have gradually decreased, and the profit has also shown signs of weakening. Currently, the domestic raw material spot price provides support, and the profit of finished products has rebounded [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The macro - level meeting has improved the sentiment in the commodity market, but the spot market is stable with weak trading volume. There is a game between the weak reality and the market sentiment, and the market is significantly affected by sentiment. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate upwards, but the increase is limited. Currently, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is necessary to observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and whether the spot trading volume improves. It is recommended to hold spot and adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating put options to increase income when the price is high [16]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly balance sheet of pulp from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream production, imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, demand, and inventory data, as well as their cumulative and year - on - year changes [18]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis**: - **Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis**: - **Supply - end**: - **Pulp Import**: The import volume of different types of pulp (softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, etc.) and wood chips (softwood chips, hardwood chips) is analyzed, including monthly data, cumulative data, and year - on - year changes from 2022 to 2025 [42][47][73][80]. - **Pulp Import Seasonality and Cumulative Data by Country**: Analyzes the import seasonality and cumulative import volume and year - on - year changes of softwood pulp from different countries (Russia, the United States, Finland, Canada, Chile) [50][60]. - **Demand - end**: - **Pulp Apparent Demand**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Analysis of Pulp's Downstream Finished Paper**: Analyzes the production, import, export, and apparent demand of different types of finished paper (toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), as well as the planned construction and commissioning of new production capacity [91][100][118]. - **Inventory - end**: Analyzes the total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, port inventory, and inventory by port, including weekly data from 2022 to 2025 [144][148]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - **Pulp Import Cost and Profit**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: Not detailed in the provided content. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **Pulp Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotations of different pulp varieties (Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, Goldfish, etc.), including price changes and expected trends [12]. - **Seasonal Price and Spread of Different Pulp Varieties**: Analyzes the seasonal price changes of different pulp varieties (Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, Goldfish, Asia - Pacific Senbo, etc.) and the seasonal spread between them, as well as the basis between pulp varieties and futures contracts [170][175][177].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there are no significant contradictions between supply and demand in the pulp market. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of rigid demand but high inventory. Overall, the market will maintain a volatile trend when there is no obvious improvement or positive factors in demand. The arrival of pulp is expected to recover in May, decrease slightly in June, and the reduction of the Star brand is expected to affect the arrival in July. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment, and focus on the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products in the future [17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Overview 3.1.1 Supply - side - Domestic supply: This week, domestic pulp production showed a slight decline. The production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 200,000 tons, a decrease of 0.70 tons compared with last week, a decrease of 0.26%. The production of chemical mechanical pulp was 200,000 tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons compared with last week. The overall domestic supply was relatively stable [7][8] - Import supply: In April 2025, China's pulp import volume was 2.893 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 12.531 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.0%. Affected by overseas shipments and domestic import seasonality, the arrival is expected to recover in May, decrease slightly in June, and the reduction of the Star brand is expected to affect the arrival in July [8] 3.1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Downstream demand: This week, downstream pulp production was stable. The output of living paper was 300,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with last week; the output of offset paper was 210,800 tons, a slight increase compared with last week; the output of coated paper was 76,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with last week; the output of white cardboard was 297,900 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons compared with last week. Gradually entering the off - season, the downstream start - up rate was basically stable, but new production capacity was being put into operation, while terminal demand was limited, resulting in stable production but a continuous decline in the start - up rate and approaching inventory accumulation [10] - Inventory situation: This week, port inventory decreased. The total port inventory was 2.162 million tons, an increase of 0.4 tons compared with last week. The decrease in prices stimulated the replenishment willingness of some paper mills, and spot transactions improved. The warehouse receipt inventory also decreased. The total warehouse receipt inventory was 248,273 tons, a decrease of 4,359 tons compared with last week. The price decline led some paper mills to be interested in purchasing cheap Russian needles, and some warehouse receipts were cancelled and flowed to downstream factories [10] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - Cost: The domestic cost of broad - leaf pulp was 3,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared with last week; the import cost of Silver Star was 5,952 yuan/ton, a decrease of 259 yuan/ton compared with last week. The cost of imported pulp generally showed a downward trend [13] - Profit: The apparent profit of domestic pulp was acceptable, but the actual transaction price continued to decline. The import pulp spot price decreased, which affected the downstream purchasing willingness to some extent. The profit of domestic pulp is expected to decline, while the spot price of imported pulp decreased with the market, and the immediate import profit is expected to recover. The profit of paper products improved in the short - term due to the decline in raw material prices, but as it approached the off - season, the price of finished products decreased, and the profit also showed a weakening trend [13] 3.1.4 Price and Spread - Price: The foreign market quotation decreased significantly. For example, the quotation of Silver Star decreased from 770 US dollars/ton to 740 US dollars/ton. The spot price of needles was relatively strong, and the basis remained at a high level. The broad - leaf pulp was close to the domestic cost line, and the downward space was relatively limited, showing a certain degree of stability. The futures price fluctuated in a pattern of weak demand and high inventory [15] - Spread: The spread between needles and broad - leaves remained at a high level. The spread between Silver Star and Goldfish continued to be high, breaking through 2,000 and approaching the historical extreme value. Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures market entered a positive arbitrage logic, and the demand for far - month contracts was relatively pessimistic. The basis was relatively stable this week [15] 3.1.5 Strategy Recommendation - The reason for market fluctuations: The spot market was relatively stable, and cultural paper companies successively issued price increase letters with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The downstream start - up rates of different paper types showed different trends [17] - Future outlook: In the short - term, there are no significant contradictions between supply and demand, and the market will maintain a volatile trend. The arrival of pulp is expected to recover in May, decrease slightly in June, and the reduction of the Star brand is expected to affect the arrival in July [17] - Trading logic and suggestions: Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment. The fundamentals are short - term volatile, and focus on the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [17] 3.2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory situation of pulp from January 2024 to June 2025. It includes data such as domestic production, import volume, downstream production, pulp consumption, and inventory. For example, in April 2025, the domestic production was 317,900 tons, the import volume was 2.893 million tons, and the total supply was 5.4492 million tons [20] 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Global Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis - Global pulp shipping volume: No specific data analysis was provided in the content - European apparent demand and inventory: No specific data analysis was provided in the content 3.3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply - side - Pulp import: The import volume showed certain fluctuations. In April 2025, the total pulp import volume decreased compared with the previous month [8] - Bleached softwood pulp import: The import volume of bleached softwood pulp from different countries showed different seasonal and cumulative trends. For example, the import volume of Russian bleached softwood pulp and its cumulative import volume and year - on - year changes were presented [49][70] - Other pulp imports: The import of chemical mechanical pulp, unbleached pulp, needle chips, and broad - leaf chips also showed different trends [79][86] - Demand - side - Pulp apparent demand: No specific data analysis was provided in the content - Downstream finished paper analysis - Production capacity and production plan: There are a large number of planned and under - construction projects for domestic pulp - related products in the future. For example, there are many new production capacity plans for living paper, cultural paper, and white cardboard in different regions. However, due to factors such as the slow growth of downstream demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the white cardboard industry has increased, affecting the production progress of some production capacity [106] - Import and export of finished paper: The import and export volume of different types of finished paper showed different trends. For example, the import volume of living paper was relatively small, and the export volume of some paper types showed certain fluctuations [109][125] - Inventory - side - Total pulp inventory, warehouse receipts, and port inventory: The total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory showed different trends over time. For example, the total pulp inventory showed a certain degree of volatility, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased this week [10][152] - Inventory by port: The inventory of different ports such as Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, and Changshu Port also showed different trends [156][157][159] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Pulp import cost and profit: The import cost of pulp decreased, and the immediate import profit is expected to recover [13] - Domestic pulp production cost and profit: The apparent profit of domestic pulp was acceptable, but the actual profit was affected by the decline in transaction prices and the decrease in import pulp prices, showing a downward trend [13] 3.5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Foreign market quotation: The foreign market quotation of pulp decreased significantly [15] - Seasonal price and spread: The prices of different pulp brands such as Silver Star, Russian needle, and Goldfish showed different seasonal trends, and the spreads between them also showed different characteristics [179][184] - Basis: The basis between different pulp brands and futures contracts showed different trends over time. For example, the basis between Silver Star and futures contracts 07 and 09 showed certain fluctuations [186][187]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and pulp prices have stopped falling and stabilized. There is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The import reduction in April and the expectation of US tariffs are still in a game with the weak demand and high inventory in the fundamentals. The pulp market will maintain a weak and volatile trend until the demand improves. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm in April and the spot inventory rhythm [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic: The domestic pulp production started to pick up slightly this week. The 700,000 - ton chemical pulp project of Huatai has been put into production successively, and Asia Symbol has gradually resumed production. The domestic supply is relatively stable. In the week of April 25, the output of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 181,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,100 tons; the output of chemi - mechanical pulp was 202,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 tons [6][7]. - Import: In March 2025, the total pulp import volume was 3.249 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The cumulative import volume was 9.639 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In the medium - term (late March and April), the shipments of both softwood and hardwood pulp decreased, especially for hardwood pulp. Although it recovered in May, considering the Sino - US tariff issue, it is expected that the import of softwood pulp from the US will decrease significantly from early June [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: The downstream pulp demand was 846,100 tons in the week of April 24, a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.56%. The downstream production of various types of paper was relatively stable, gradually entering the off - season [10]. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, with negative market purchasing and weak trading sentiment. The warehouse receipt inventory was basically stable, with a quantitative cancellation last week. The downstream finished - product inventory tended to fluctuate and accumulate as the downstream entered the off - season, but the production and sales were basically balanced [10]. 1.3 Cost and Profit - Cost: The spot pulp price declined with the market, and the foreign quotation decreased significantly. The domestic cost of broad - leaf pulp was 3,887 yuan/ton on April 25, a month - on - month increase of 76 yuan/ton; the cost of imported softwood pulp such as Silver Star decreased [12]. - Profit: The immediate import profit of pulp recovered, and the immediate profit of paper improved as raw material prices gradually declined. For example, the profit of Silver Star pulp was 80 yuan/ton on April 25, a significant improvement compared to - 283 yuan/ton on April 3 [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - The reasons for market fluctuations are the weak downstream start - up rates. The white cardboard start - up rate decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the offset paper increased by 0.1%, the coated paper increased by 0.3%, and the tissue paper decreased by 0.7%. - The future market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend until the demand improves. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment, and focus on the arrival rhythm in April and the spot inventory rhythm [15]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to May 2025, including import volume, domestic production, downstream production, pulp consumption, factory inventory, and total inventory. Overall, the growth rate of supply and demand has gradually slowed down, and the inventory has fluctuated [18]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The global pulp shipment volume showed a decreasing trend in the medium - term, especially for hardwood pulp. - Demand and Inventory: Information about European apparent demand and inventory is not detailed in the provided content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: - Import: The import volume of various types of pulp such as softwood and hardwood pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, and wood chips has different trends. For example, the import volume of softwood pulp from the US is expected to decrease significantly due to tariffs [7]. - Domestic Production: Some domestic pulp projects have been put into production or resumed production, increasing the domestic supply [7]. - Demand: - Pulp Apparent Demand: The overall demand is relatively stable but gradually enters the off - season. - Downstream Finished - Product Paper: The production of various types of finished - product paper such as tissue paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard is relatively stable, and there are some new production capacity plans and device changes [95]. - Inventory: The total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory have different trends, with the port inventory mainly accumulating and the warehouse receipt inventory being relatively stable [10]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - Pulp Import Cost and Profit: The import cost has decreased, and the profit has recovered. - Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit: The domestic production cost and profit situation are also affected by market price fluctuations. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Pulp Foreign Quotation: The foreign quotation of pulp has decreased, and other brands are also expected to follow the downward trend with a significant decline [14]. - Price Seasonality: The prices of various pulp brands such as Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish have different seasonal trends. - Spread Seasonality: The spreads between different pulp brands also show seasonal characteristics. - Basis: The basis of pulp is relatively stable, and the spot market fluctuates closely with the futures market, maintaining a high basis level [14].