Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - This week's pulp futures prices reached a new high since April, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton on the 23rd, showing a wide - range volatile trend as expected. The main influencing factors include foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. [2] - It is expected that the pulp futures prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range next week, with a possibility of a high - level decline. [3] - In the short - term, the futures prices are affected by the capital side, and the fundamentals are slightly stronger than before, with some support at the bottom. In the long - term, the impact of near - term warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, while the supply of long - term warehouse receipts is uncertain, which brings some positive factors. The macro - sentiment may weaken due to the possible halt of the Fed's interest - rate cut process, but there may be positive policy factors in the domestic market. [4][5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors this week are foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. The futures prices reached a new high, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton. Suzano's price increase in the Asian market in January and the RMB breaking 7 provided cost support and positive sentiment, respectively. Capital fluctuations led to wide - range volatility. [2] - From the fundamental perspective, China's pulp port inventory decreased by 8.7 tons this week, which is a significant de - stocking and is one of the reasons for the high - level volatility of futures prices. [2] - In terms of terminal demand, the operating rates of downstream paper types showed mixed changes, and the demand was relatively weaker than last week. The import price of softwood pulp increased by 0.02%, with a further narrowing of the increase, which still has a supporting effect but is difficult to drive the futures prices up further. [2] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Not detailed in the document 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management of enterprises with high inventories of pulp and offset printing paper, it is recommended to short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5500 - 5600 for pulp and 4350 - 4400 for offset printing paper. [9] - For procurement management of papermaking enterprises with low inventories, it is recommended to buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5000 - 5100 for pulp and 4000 - 4100 for offset printing paper. [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: The RMB breaking 7, Suzano's price increase of 20 dollars in the Asian market in January, and the further decline of port inventory [14] - **Likely Negative Information**: The relatively high valuation of futures prices and the shutdown plan of leading paper enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 [13] - **Spot Transaction Information**: The pulp price shows a range - bound trend, with the main contract range of [5550, 5650]. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations in the futures market, with a small amount of high - short strategies, and to wait and see for options. Temporarily wait and see for basis and arbitrage strategies. [13] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The SP2605 contract continued to fluctuate in a wide range this week. The RSI indicator once reached the over - bought range and then declined. Currently, the technical indicators are slightly bearish. [20] 3.2 Base and Spread Structure - Not detailed in the document Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 4.1 Supply - On December 26th, the inventory was 190.6 tons (- 8.7), which is a significant de - stocking and has a positive effect. The warehouse receipts have reached an absolute low compared to the same period. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp has gradually converged to a normal level, which is positive. [32] - In November, the domestic monthly import volume of softwood pulp was 81.99 tons, an increase from October. The global pulp shipment volume to China increased by 3.85% month - on - month in November, which will put pressure on future de - stocking. [32] 4.2 Demand - The downstream finished paper inventories of enterprises continue to accumulate, and the profit margins have declined this week, which restricts the raw material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises. [32] - The operating rates and production of various types of finished paper show different trends, and the export and consumption also have their own characteristics, which are presented in the corresponding seasonal charts. [68][73][76][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Next week, the pulp futures price will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, but there are still certain limitations above [3]. - In the long - term, the impact of Buzhen warehouse receipts will decrease to some extent, but there will still be Buzhen warehouse receipts registered this year available for delivery in 2026. The strengthening expectation of continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is bullish for commodities. The instability of the US trade war and tariff policies may cause Brazilian pulp exports to the US to be affected and flow to the Chinese market, creating greater supply pressure, but this has not been seen yet. Under China's anti - involution strategy, positive factors may emerge from the policy side at any time [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core influencing factors this week are macro - sentiment and the implementation of paper mills' price - holding strategies. The continuation of import tariffs on US pulp and the increase in the average spot price of imported wood pulp are positive for the pulp futures price. The partial implementation of paper mills' price - holding strategies also brings some positive effects, but the actual implementation effect is limited, restricting the increase of the futures price [1]. - From the fundamental perspective, China's port inventory decreased by 53,000 tons, and attention should be paid to the bullish impact on the futures price when it falls below 2 million tons. On the supply side, the resumption of production by some enterprises and the increase in the operating load rates of bamboo pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemimechanical pulp bring certain pressure [1]. - In terms of terminal demand, there is a slight improvement. The operating rates of downstream papermaking enterprises generally increased, and downstream demand has recovered [2]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations No specific content provided in the report. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For enterprises with high inventories of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. They can also sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% [8]. - For papermaking enterprises with low inventories that want to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25%. They can also sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% [8]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: Some pulp mills are under maintenance; European port pulp inventory decreased in September; the import tariff ratio of pulp from the US remains unchanged; the softwood pulp market price generally shows a slight upward trend [10]. - **Likely Negative Information**: The high - level destocking of port inventory is slow; Buzhen warehouse receipts suppress the market, and spot liquidity is poor; the peak season is not prosperous, and demand has not improved significantly; the increase in the price increase of downstream paper products in November is lower than expected [11][12]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The trend is in the middle of an uptrend. The short - term support level is in the range of [5200, 5250], and the pressure level is in the range of [5500, 5600]. On the futures side, short - term low - level buying or waiting and seeing can be considered, and high - level shorting opportunities can also be monitored. Option strategies can be temporarily on hold. Short - term basis strategies can be temporarily on hold. For arbitrage (inter - period) strategies, as the delivery time approaches, the previous 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage positions can be gradually closed, and the 12 - 01 reverse arbitrage can be switched to [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Movement**: This week, the SP2511 contract fluctuated, and the SP2601 contract fluctuated upward. In terms of positions, both long and short positions showed signs of slight reduction. The RSI indicator is generally upward and is still in the buying range, indicating short - term upward potential. However, the 6 - day line is approaching the overbought range, and technically, attention should be paid to the possibility of the futures price falling from a high level [16]. - **Basis and Inter - period Structure**: The inter - period structure maintains a C - structure. The suppression of Buzhen warehouse receipts continues, and the destocking is slow. Affected by the current overall market, the previous short positions in the 01 - 03 inter - period spread can be closed at an appropriate time, and attention should be paid to the short situation of the 12 - 01 inter - period spread [21]. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory**: On November 7, the inventory was 2.008 million tons (- 53,000 tons) compared with last week. Once the port inventory falls below 2 million tons, it may support the futures price. In late September, the monthly import volume of domestic softwood pulp was 760,000 tons, rebounding from August. The volume of global pulp shipped to China at the end of August increased by 5.7% month - on - month, putting pressure on subsequent pulp destocking. Downstream finished - paper inventories in enterprises continue to accumulate, and profit margins have declined this week, restricting downstream enterprises' raw material replenishment [23]. - **Supply**: In terms of domestic production, the production of some enterprises has resumed, and the operating load rates of bamboo pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemimechanical pulp have increased compared with last week [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream papermaking enterprises generally increased, and downstream demand has recovered [2].