Group 1: Gold Market - The World Gold Council (WGC) forecasts that gold prices may rise by 15% to 30% by 2026, driven by declining U.S. Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] Group 2: Copper Market - Mercuria plans to withdraw a significant amount of copper from LME's Asian warehouses, with a record increase in copper withdrawal applications of 50,575 tons, reaching a total of 56,875 tons, which constitutes 35% of LME's total inventory [4] - The supply tightness in copper is exacerbated by mine disruptions in Indonesia and Chile, leading to historically low copper inventories in LME-certified warehouses, which has contributed to recent price increases [4] - Recent predictions from Mercuria's executives indicate a bullish outlook for copper prices, suggesting that the surge in shipments to the U.S. may deplete global inventories, further driving prices up [4] Group 3: Labor Market - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022, which is below market expectations of 220,000 [6] - The labor market remains in a "no layoffs, no hiring" state, with the upcoming non-farm payroll report delayed due to a government shutdown [6] Group 4: Pulp Market - Pulp futures prices have rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with a recent increase of 5.73%, driven by supply disruptions from overseas pulp mills [8][9] - Domtar announced the permanent closure of its Crofton mill, reducing annual NBSK pulp production by approximately 380,000 tons, while other mills are also considering temporary shutdowns due to market conditions [8] - Despite the rebound in pulp prices, analysts suggest that the fundamental market conditions have not significantly changed, and high inventory levels may continue to pressure prices [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Next week, the pulp futures price will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, but there are still certain limitations above [3]. - In the long - term, the impact of Buzhen warehouse receipts will decrease to some extent, but there will still be Buzhen warehouse receipts registered this year available for delivery in 2026. The strengthening expectation of continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is bullish for commodities. The instability of the US trade war and tariff policies may cause Brazilian pulp exports to the US to be affected and flow to the Chinese market, creating greater supply pressure, but this has not been seen yet. Under China's anti - involution strategy, positive factors may emerge from the policy side at any time [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core influencing factors this week are macro - sentiment and the implementation of paper mills' price - holding strategies. The continuation of import tariffs on US pulp and the increase in the average spot price of imported wood pulp are positive for the pulp futures price. The partial implementation of paper mills' price - holding strategies also brings some positive effects, but the actual implementation effect is limited, restricting the increase of the futures price [1]. - From the fundamental perspective, China's port inventory decreased by 53,000 tons, and attention should be paid to the bullish impact on the futures price when it falls below 2 million tons. On the supply side, the resumption of production by some enterprises and the increase in the operating load rates of bamboo pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemimechanical pulp bring certain pressure [1]. - In terms of terminal demand, there is a slight improvement. The operating rates of downstream papermaking enterprises generally increased, and downstream demand has recovered [2]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations No specific content provided in the report. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For enterprises with high inventories of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. They can also sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% [8]. - For papermaking enterprises with low inventories that want to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25%. They can also sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% [8]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: Some pulp mills are under maintenance; European port pulp inventory decreased in September; the import tariff ratio of pulp from the US remains unchanged; the softwood pulp market price generally shows a slight upward trend [10]. - **Likely Negative Information**: The high - level destocking of port inventory is slow; Buzhen warehouse receipts suppress the market, and spot liquidity is poor; the peak season is not prosperous, and demand has not improved significantly; the increase in the price increase of downstream paper products in November is lower than expected [11][12]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The trend is in the middle of an uptrend. The short - term support level is in the range of [5200, 5250], and the pressure level is in the range of [5500, 5600]. On the futures side, short - term low - level buying or waiting and seeing can be considered, and high - level shorting opportunities can also be monitored. Option strategies can be temporarily on hold. Short - term basis strategies can be temporarily on hold. For arbitrage (inter - period) strategies, as the delivery time approaches, the previous 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage positions can be gradually closed, and the 12 - 01 reverse arbitrage can be switched to [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Movement**: This week, the SP2511 contract fluctuated, and the SP2601 contract fluctuated upward. In terms of positions, both long and short positions showed signs of slight reduction. The RSI indicator is generally upward and is still in the buying range, indicating short - term upward potential. However, the 6 - day line is approaching the overbought range, and technically, attention should be paid to the possibility of the futures price falling from a high level [16]. - **Basis and Inter - period Structure**: The inter - period structure maintains a C - structure. The suppression of Buzhen warehouse receipts continues, and the destocking is slow. Affected by the current overall market, the previous short positions in the 01 - 03 inter - period spread can be closed at an appropriate time, and attention should be paid to the short situation of the 12 - 01 inter - period spread [21]. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory**: On November 7, the inventory was 2.008 million tons (- 53,000 tons) compared with last week. Once the port inventory falls below 2 million tons, it may support the futures price. In late September, the monthly import volume of domestic softwood pulp was 760,000 tons, rebounding from August. The volume of global pulp shipped to China at the end of August increased by 5.7% month - on - month, putting pressure on subsequent pulp destocking. Downstream finished - paper inventories in enterprises continue to accumulate, and profit margins have declined this week, restricting downstream enterprises' raw material replenishment [23]. - **Supply**: In terms of domestic production, the production of some enterprises has resumed, and the operating load rates of bamboo pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemimechanical pulp have increased compared with last week [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream papermaking enterprises generally increased, and downstream demand has recovered [2].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that sales, operational cash generation, and EBITDA were in line with expectations for the quarter [10][11] - Net debt remained stable at $13 billion, with net leverage increasing to 3.1 times due to a reduction in last twelve month EBITDA to $4.2 billion [28][29] - Cash costs declined compared to the first quarter, driven by stronger operational performance and lower fixed costs [25][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brazilian operations saw stronger sales volumes and lower costs compared to Q1, with EBITDA growth year-over-year [12][13] - U.S. operations experienced a 3% price increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by product mix and better commercial location [13] - The paper and packaging business in the U.S. is expected to deliver positive EBITDA in Q3, with lower costs and higher production volumes anticipated [16][58] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, print and write demand rose 6% year-over-year, with domestic sales also increasing by 6% [14] - Uncoated wood free paper demand remained stable in North America and Latin America but declined by 10% in Europe [14] - The U.S. market for boxboard demand was stable, while demand for SBS boards increased by 1% [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on competitiveness and cost reduction, with an emphasis on executing existing deals rather than pursuing new M&A initiatives [10][11] - A deal with Eldorado is expected to provide an internal return of around 20%, allowing for increased production at the Ribba's mill without significant investment [6][42] - The company plans to maintain a focus on deleveraging and improving operational competitiveness [10][88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the cash cost trend is expected to continue decreasing in the upcoming quarters [10][25] - The company is monitoring market dynamics closely, particularly in light of recent price corrections and supply-demand imbalances [22][72] - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of order intake in China and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [22][23] Other Important Information - The company has built inventories in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of 50% import duties imposed by the U.S. government [17] - The company is planning to redirect the majority of its exports from the U.S. to other regions [17] - The company maintains a healthy amortization schedule with more than six years of average maturity [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the changing dynamics in the pulp scenario that allowed for the $20 price increase for Asia? - Management noted high order intake levels in China since June, indicating a supportive market environment for price increases [32][34] Question: Can you elaborate on the internal rate of return of the deal with Eldorado? - The internal rate of return is expected to be around 20%, driven by optimized harvesting and reduced operational costs [40][42] Question: What is the expected normalized production level if pulp prices remain below $550 per ton? - The company has a detailed analysis on production costs and has decided to reduce production to maintain profitability [46][47] Question: What are the main opportunities identified in the U.S. packaging market? - The company is expanding its market reach and has seen significant growth in cup stock sales, indicating strong opportunities for profitability [60] Question: How are negotiations regarding the 10% tariff on U.S. exports going? - The company successfully negotiated that customers will bear the 10% tariff, ensuring that Suzano will not absorb this cost [97] Question: What is the status of the Kimberly Clark acquisition? - Dedicated teams have been established to plan the carve-out of the new joint venture, with the project progressing as planned [98]