南华纸浆产业周报 —— 相对偏强运行，但需注意高位回落风险 俞俊臣（投资咨询证号：Z0021065 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周的核心影响因素在于宏观情绪与纸企挺价落地情况。纸浆对美进口关税延续，本周进口木浆现货均价也 多数上涨，利好纸浆期价走势。而纸企挺价结果也部分落地，带来一定利好，但实际落地效果相对有限，限 制期价涨幅。 从基本面来看，中国港口库存下降5.3万吨，降幅相对明显，需注意其跌至200万吨以下后给期价带来的利多 影响。而就供应端来看，个别企业恢复生产，竹浆、阔叶浆、化机浆开工负荷率均较上周有所增长，在供应 端仍带来一定的压力。 在终端需求方面，略有好转。下游造纸开工率普遍上涨，下游需求有所恢复。 综合来看，下周纸浆期价走势将震荡偏强，但上方仍存一定限制。 *近端交易逻辑 短期受需求与进口浆价影响，仍存一定上涨空间。但下游需求并未真正改善，需注意追高风险。 * 远端交易预期 远端上，布针仓单的影响将有一定程度的下降，但26年仍然有今年注册的布针仓单可以交割。美联储持续降 息预期加强，宏观上利多整个大 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that sales, operational cash generation, and EBITDA were in line with expectations for the quarter [10][11] - Net debt remained stable at $13 billion, with net leverage increasing to 3.1 times due to a reduction in last twelve month EBITDA to $4.2 billion [28][29] - Cash costs declined compared to the first quarter, driven by stronger operational performance and lower fixed costs [25][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brazilian operations saw stronger sales volumes and lower costs compared to Q1, with EBITDA growth year-over-year [12][13] - U.S. operations experienced a 3% price increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by product mix and better commercial location [13] - The paper and packaging business in the U.S. is expected to deliver positive EBITDA in Q3, with lower costs and higher production volumes anticipated [16][58] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, print and write demand rose 6% year-over-year, with domestic sales also increasing by 6% [14] - Uncoated wood free paper demand remained stable in North America and Latin America but declined by 10% in Europe [14] - The U.S. market for boxboard demand was stable, while demand for SBS boards increased by 1% [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on competitiveness and cost reduction, with an emphasis on executing existing deals rather than pursuing new M&A initiatives [10][11] - A deal with Eldorado is expected to provide an internal return of around 20%, allowing for increased production at the Ribba's mill without significant investment [6][42] - The company plans to maintain a focus on deleveraging and improving operational competitiveness [10][88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the cash cost trend is expected to continue decreasing in the upcoming quarters [10][25] - The company is monitoring market dynamics closely, particularly in light of recent price corrections and supply-demand imbalances [22][72] - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of order intake in China and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [22][23] Other Important Information - The company has built inventories in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of 50% import duties imposed by the U.S. government [17] - The company is planning to redirect the majority of its exports from the U.S. to other regions [17] - The company maintains a healthy amortization schedule with more than six years of average maturity [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the changing dynamics in the pulp scenario that allowed for the $20 price increase for Asia? - Management noted high order intake levels in China since June, indicating a supportive market environment for price increases [32][34] Question: Can you elaborate on the internal rate of return of the deal with Eldorado? - The internal rate of return is expected to be around 20%, driven by optimized harvesting and reduced operational costs [40][42] Question: What is the expected normalized production level if pulp prices remain below $550 per ton? - The company has a detailed analysis on production costs and has decided to reduce production to maintain profitability [46][47] Question: What are the main opportunities identified in the U.S. packaging market? - The company is expanding its market reach and has seen significant growth in cup stock sales, indicating strong opportunities for profitability [60] Question: How are negotiations regarding the 10% tariff on U.S. exports going? - The company successfully negotiated that customers will bear the 10% tariff, ensuring that Suzano will not absorb this cost [97] Question: What is the status of the Kimberly Clark acquisition? - Dedicated teams have been established to plan the carve-out of the new joint venture, with the project progressing as planned [98]