Core Viewpoint - Germany's economy, facing a recession for two consecutive years, is heavily investing in the defense industry as a means to stimulate economic recovery, although experts caution that defense spending may not be the primary driver of economic revival [1][3][10]. Economic Context - Germany's economy has been struggling due to rising energy prices and slow industrial transformation, with a notable decline in industrial new orders, which fell by 2.9% in July, marking the third consecutive month of decline [3][4]. - The automotive sector, a key industry, is experiencing a sluggish transition to electric vehicles, leading to a drop in sales and profits among major car manufacturers [3][4]. - The German government has approved a significant budget for defense, with a total budget of €520.5 billion for the fiscal year 2026, including a defense budget of €82.7 billion, a 32% increase from the previous year [3][4]. Defense Industry Investment - The German defense ministry plans to submit over 60 orders by the end of 2025, including projects for a new generation of European fighter jets and infantry fighting vehicles, with budgets ranging from €3 billion to €10 billion [4][6]. - Germany's defense spending has been increasing for three consecutive years, positioning it as the fourth-largest military spender globally by 2024 [6][8]. Industry Dynamics - Major defense companies like Rheinmetall have seen significant stock price increases, with a nearly 2000% rise over the past five years, and are shifting focus from automotive to defense, with plans to completely divest from automotive parts by 2025 [6][7]. - Companies are expanding into new areas, such as Rheinmetall acquiring a naval shipbuilding company and other firms like Hensoldt experiencing a surge in orders for military sensors and radars [7][8]. Employment and Economic Impact - The German Employment Research Institute predicts that the defense industry could create up to 200,000 jobs in the coming years, although there are concerns about the limited economic stimulus potential of military spending [8][10]. - Economic experts argue that the fiscal multiplier effect of military spending is low, suggesting that investments in infrastructure and education typically yield higher returns [10][11]. Challenges and Limitations - The military-industrial complex in Germany faces challenges such as long project cycles and a highly automated production process, which limits job creation [11]. - There is a historical caution against militarization in German society, which may slow the pace of defense industry growth despite recent increases in spending [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Germany, as the economic "locomotive" of Europe, has been in recession for two consecutive years, prompting the government to significantly increase investment in the defense industry to stimulate the weak economy [1][3]. Economic Context - Germany's economy, heavily reliant on exports, has faced multiple challenges including energy price shocks and slow industrial transformation, leading to a clear downward trend [3]. - The Federal Statistical Office reported a 2.9% month-on-month decline in new industrial orders in July, marking the third consecutive month of decline [3]. - Major automotive manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen have reported significant profit declines for the first half of 2025 due to slow electrification and external pressures such as high tariffs from the U.S. [3]. - The German government has approved a total budget of €520.5 billion for the fiscal year 2026, with a defense budget of €82.7 billion, a 32% increase from the previous fiscal year [3]. Defense Industry Investment - The German defense ministry plans to submit over 60 orders by the end of 2025, including a new generation "European fighter jet" project with a budget of €3 to €5 billion and the "Puma" infantry fighting vehicle project costing around €10 billion [5]. - The defense industry is seen as a crucial component of Germany's economic resilience and is expected to play a significant role in economic recovery [5]. Industry Challenges - The German defense industry has been in a state of contraction since the end of the Cold War, with military spending as a percentage of GDP dropping from 2.5% in 1990 to 1.4% in 2020, leading to reduced production capacity and a loss of technical personnel [5]. - Germany remains competitive in traditional sectors like tank and submarine manufacturing but lags in emerging fields such as stealth fighters and drones due to lower R&D investment compared to other military powers [5]. Market Dynamics - Germany's military spending has increased for three consecutive years, making it the fourth-largest military spender globally in 2024 [8]. - Rheinmetall, a major defense manufacturer, has seen its stock price rise nearly 2000% over the past five years, with 80% of its revenue now coming from defense [8]. - Demand for products from ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, including submarines and frigates, has surged, with projected sales of approximately €2.1 billion for the 2023-2024 fiscal year, a 16.7% increase from the previous year [9]. Employment and Economic Impact - The German Employment Research Institute predicts that the upward trend in the defense industry will continue for years, potentially creating up to 200,000 jobs [13]. - However, some economists express caution regarding the potential of defense spending to significantly boost the economy, citing the need for government borrowing rather than tax increases to fund military expansion [15]. - The economic multiplier effect of military spending is relatively low, with estimates suggesting that every €1 spent on defense only generates about €0.50 in economic activity, compared to higher multipliers for infrastructure and education investments [16].